Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

I'm glad the French have moved on. Breaking up is hard to do. What I haven't seen in Marcon proposing someone who would be better qualified than Wallace. With war raging in Eastern Europe, I don't think that candidates should be excluded based on which NATO country they're from.

Let's hope Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine is the wake-up call that reverses this very concerning trend. Remember that out of the 76,000 active duty personnel, at most 25,000 are actual combat forces. This is tiny for a country like Britain.

Tough political decisions ahead for whoever is in power. We owe £2.6 trillion, or £90,000 per household. Put that into context.

John or Jane Smith are interested in paying for their housing, some carbs and an annual holiday. They are stretched and will not vote for anything that raises their taxes. Even if they understood the real issue that their cosy lives are on the line, who is going to lead them out of it?

Sunak's pledges are woefully inadequate and he is a third rate economist with some administration skills pretending to be a world leader. Then we have that insipid guy. He is either leader of the Labour party or the Lib Dems, I cannot remember which.

The snowball effect is remarkable. My fear is our armed forces have melted so much we have lost that critical mass and the important knowhow.

Poland has certainly found the will to increase military spending. They, of course, are under a much greater threat from Russia than the UK.

https://www.newsweek.com/this-nato-ally-building-strongest-army-after-ukraine-military-analyst-1790234

When I was trying to join the RNR, Crapita were making a mess of the medicals. In my parents' day this stuff used to be handled in-house by one of the reservist doctors.

MissConductUS, thanks for linking to this article.

Poland leading the way on military spending and stepping up for its brother Ukraine and its security. There is always the fear that Western allies' support will flag if the war drags on. They are already giving so much. It warms my heart and brings comfort that Poland is reportedly gearing up to back stop Ukraine's fight to do what NATO is not prepared to.

Poland might become NATO's spearhead should Russia take its aggression in the war in Ukraine to the next level, military analyst Hans Petter Midttun said in a new op-ed.
...
"The bottom line is that Poland is thinking, planning and acting according to NATO's late strategic concept," Midttun wrote. "It is building military power to do—if needed—what the U.S. and NATO will not: I.e., fight alongside the Armed Forces of Ukraine to stop a war that threatens European security and stability."
...
Also last week, Polish President Andrzej Duda announced that four Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter jets would be sent to Ukraine "literally within the next few days." Poland and Slovakia, which is sending 13 of the same aircraft, are granting requests by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for more air-related assistance.

That's a line that the United States has been reluctant to cross. President Joe Biden has not fulfilled such requests, with the U.S. instead choosing to provide an abundance of weapons, ammunition and artillery and defense systems.
...
"Therefore, either Ukraine will defend its independence today, or we will have to enter this conflict," Rościszewski said. "Because our main values, which were the basis of our civilization and our culture, will be threatened."
..
"Eastern European countries do not support the Ukrainian fight for its right to exist—its sovereignty and independence—out of kindness alone, but primarily as a defense of their own country," Midttun wrote. "They are doing their uttermost to avoid the dramatic consequences of a potential Ukrainian defeat."

He said that while the U.S. and Biden are avoiding "boots on the ground" and the sending of aircraft to Ukraine, Poland is doing the opposite.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-22-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on June 22.
• Senior Kremlin officials continue to publicly address the Ukrainian counteroffensive in a cohesive manner and acknowledge Ukrainian forces will conduct further operations, while continuing to inflate Russian successes.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will form a “reserve army” by the end of June, form a new army corps, and reinforce key Western Military District (WMD) formations as part of intended force restructuring.
• The Russian MoD is unlikely to fully formalize Russian volunteer formations by its stated July 1 deadline.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Russian forces are preparing to conduct a possible sabotage attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). A Russian-created radiological incident at the ZNPP remains unlikely but not impossible.
• Ukrainian forces may be intensifying efforts to strike Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in southern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that Western partners have different expectations for Ukraine’s counteroffensive and stated that Ukrainian forces will perform operations as Ukraine sees fit independent of pressure from another country.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks near the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Bakhmut.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continued offensive operations on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are transferring GRU Spetsnaz units to Kursk and Bryansk oblasts to fight Russian partisans.
• Russian sources claimed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested a group of saboteurs in occupied Melitopol that allegedly planned the assassination of unnamed Zaporizhia Oblast occupation officials and sabotage against railroads.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Zelensky: Summer counteroffensive (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-summer-counteroffensive-to-pick-up-the-pace/) to pick up the pace.
Zelensky said that though Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive may seem slow now, it will pick up the pace, just like the operations in the fall.

⚡️IAEA: No mines observed (https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-no-mines-observed-in-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plants-cooling-pond/) near Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant’s cooling pond.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said on June 21 it is aware of the recent reports of mines having been placed near the cooling pond of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, but no such mines were observed during Director General Rafael Grossi’s visit.]

⚡️Ombudsman: ICRC refuses (https://kyivindependent.com/ombudsman-icrc-refuses-to-disclose-number-of-ukrainian-pows-it-visited/) to disclose number of Ukrainian POWs it visited.

⚡️European Commission presents interim assessment (https://kyivindependent.com/european-commission-presents-interim-assessment-of-ukraines-progress-toward-eu-membership-talks/) of Ukraine's progress toward EU membership talks.

⚡️Minister: Russian gas transit (https://kyivindependent.com/minister-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine-can-end-by-2024/) through Ukraine could end by 2024.
Renewal of the gas transit contract between Ukraine and Russia next year is unlikely, Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko told the Financial Times on June 22.

⚡️Ombudsman: Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/ombudsman-ukraine-has-no-access-to-remaining-8-pows-in-hungary/) has no access to remaining 8 POWs in Hungary.

Kyiv’s frustration boils as flow of Western chips for Russian missiles (https://kyivindependent.com/kyivs-frustration-boils-as-flow-of-western-chips-for-russian-missiles-continues-uninterrupted/) continues uninterrupted .... President’s Office Head Andrii Yermak provided more details on Twitter: The missile used in the attack [on Kryvyi Rihwas a Kh-101 cruise missile, not from old stocks, but manufactured only two months earlier.

⚡️Minister: Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/minister-ukraine-wants-to-build-500-000-strong-military/) wants to build 500,000-strong military.
Ukraine aims to increase its gross domestic product (GDP) from $161 billion to $1 trillion in ten years, among other reasons to maintain a 500,000-strong military, European Pravda cited Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko on June 22.
The higher budget will also be used to develop the social sphere, education, and healthcare, Svyrydenko said at the Ukraine Recovery Conference (UCR) 2023 in London.

⚡️SBU detains suspected (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-suspected-spy-in-mykolaiv/) spy in Mykolaiv.
The alleged spy was reportedly directing the fire against Mykolaiv shipyard that injured six people and damaged several houses.
SBU said he was also providing the Russian military intelligence agency (GRU) with information on the location and movement of Leopard tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.

⚡️Zelensky signs law banning (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-banning-import-and-distribution-of-russian-books/) import and distribution of Russian books.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on June 22 that he signed the law banning the import and distribution of books from Russia and Belarus, adopted last year by the parliament. [concerning. So many Ukrainians speak Russian and perhaps some only Russian, is that correct @MMBaranova @Mb76 ?. This isn't a good idea]

Svitlana Romanko: Clean energy, green jobs (https://kyivindependent.com/svitlana-romanko-clean-energy-green-jobs-as-keys-to-securing-ukraines-energy-security/) as keys to securing Ukraine’s energy security

⚡️Reuters: UN adds Russia to global list of offenders (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-un-adds-russia-to-global-list-of-offenders-for-killing-children-in-ukraine/) for killing children in Ukraine.
Reuters cited the UN chief saying Russian forces and associated groups are confirmed to have maimed 518 children and conducted 480 attacks on Ukrainian schools and hospitals. Russia's military also used 91 children as human shields, according to the report.

⚡️Air Force: Ukraine downs (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-downs-13-cruise-missiles-1-drone-overnight/) 13 cruise missiles, 1 drone overnight.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Kyiv’s frustration boils as flow of Western chips for Russian missiles (https://kyivindependent.com/kyivs-frustration-boils-as-flow-of-western-chips-for-russian-missiles-continues-uninterrupted/) continues uninterrupted .... President’s Office Head Andrii Yermak provided more details on Twitter: The missile used in the attack [on Kryvyi Rihwas a Kh-101 cruise missile, not from old stocks, but manufactured only two months earlier.

Unfortunately that ends up as a .."404" when I try the link.

Anyhow I know this has been the subject of discussion elsewhere. It's very much outside my area of any real knowledge but I gather one issue is that many chips are generic and can potentially be remapped from use in e.g. a microwave/washing machine to being used in a weapon......there's also the issue (this came up way back) that items such as GPS are now common place in things like mobile telephones....

Whilst weapon specific hardware/chips that can only have military functions shouldn't be flowing into Russia from the west (and that might be what the spokesman is talking about) realistically it's going to be pretty much impossible to stop generic chips potentially sourced from the west being used in Russian ordnance.

In haste https://kyivindependent.com/kyivs-frustration-boils-as-flow-of-western-chips-for-russian-missiles-continues-uninterrupted/ - will read more later

.

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on June 22 that he signed the law banning the import and distribution of books from Russia and Belarus, adopted last year by the parliament. [concerning. So many Ukrainians speak Russian and perhaps some only Russian, is that correct @MMBaranova @Mb76 ?. This isn't a good idea]

I haven’t heard this yet and the link doesn’t work. But I trust this is a reputable source.
My immediate thought is that this doesn’t mean that books in Russian language can not be printed in Ukraine. It says that import and distribution from Russia and Belarus is banned. That would be to limit the potential exposure to Kremlin lies etc, ass well as a retribution for Russians banning everything Ukrainian including books in the occupied territories.

I recently read in one of the blogs that Ukrainian language would be reintroduced in schools in Donetsk from September… turned out to be a lie.

That said, people who speak only Russian and do not understand a word of Ukrainian would be such a tiny minority by now after 32 years of Ukraine being independent. They would likely be the older generation.

As it stands at the moment, Russian language in Ukraine is a sore subject and a divisive one. Some people willingly switched to Ukrainian, others prefer to speak russian as this is the language they were brought up. I understand both sides of the argument. Personally I will adjust the language depending on the person I am speaking to. Although speaking in Ukrainian is harder than English or Russian for me.

Todays HardTalk podcast is an interview with Dmytro Kuleba

Thanks….that’s interesting.

I do agree it’s a problem with chips but for the reasons previously stated I understand it’s perhaps not an easy one to solve.

Remember too that Zelensky was one of those who was brought up a Russian speaker, but later switched to Ukrainian

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar - I always get the Error 404 when I click on your links in your daily updates. I think it's the (brackets) you put around them that somehow get mixed into the web address, thereby corrupting it.

I'm trying to access them from the app so it may be a glitch quirk of it

Maybe try not putting ( and ) around your web links? It's obvious that they're links as they're a different colour.

Youdo? All this time? Arrrrg!! I never knew ....

The brackets are there from the original snippet of info that I copy paste. Mostly I go thru the telegram info once a dat, copy the significant/ interesting stuff and roughly arrange them into some sort of order. Guess I'll have to take the brackets out now

Thanks for letting me know!

I too always get a 404 from those links; the cure is to go into the address bar (or whatever it is called) and delete the bracket at the end. The one at the beginning doesn't seem to get quoted for some reason.

Sorry, Ducks, I never thought to make a comment about it because I had sorted it out and assumed it was only happening to me.

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime - me too. I never thought to raise it as I'd worked out a workaround and thought it was just me.

Well, I know for now. Just checking something in this post :

⚡️ISW: Russia may threaten (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russia-likely-threatens-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-sabotage-to-dissuade-local-counteroffensive/) nuclear plant sabotage to prevent Ukrainian counteroffensive.

⚡️ISW: Russia may threaten (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russia-likely-threatens-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-sabotage-to-dissuade-local-counteroffensive/ nuclear plant sabotage to prevent Ukrainian counteroffensive.

⚡️ISW: Russia may threaten https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russia-likely-threatens-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-sabotage-to-dissuade-local-counteroffensive/nuclear plant sabotage to prevent Ukrainian counteroffensive.

https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russia-likely-threatens-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-sabotage-to-dissuade-local-counteroffensive/

Okay

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Russia is exploiting loopholes by buying a considerable amount of technology from the West used for the war against Ukraine.

According to Newsweek, over 60% of Russia's imported critical weapons components come from American companies.

From March to December last year, the Putin regime imported $20.3 billion worth of military equipment-related components, down 15% from 2021. Overall, Russia has bought technology from 155 companies headquartered in the US, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East — 66% of foreign critical components in weapons systems used by the Russian military in Ukraine were produced by US-headquartered companies.

Purchases are not made directly — most dual-use technology is imported from China. According to KSE, 1,057 foreign components have been identified in Russian technology. Microchips and processors account for almost half of all imports, but Moscow also imports a host of other goods used in navigation and communications systems and other elements of modern warfare.

In some cases, the flow of critical components has increased in the first three months of 2023: 28% more bearings and 27% more navigation and sensor systems compared to the last quarter of 2022. Imported chips, processors, transceivers, memory devices, transistors, DC converters, and other components were found in four Russian-made cruise missiles: Kh-59, Kh-101, Kalibr, and Iskander.

Foreign components were found in 7 types of Russian armored vehicles and artillery mounts, including the Tor-M2 air defense system and the T-72 tank, as well as in seven different types of drones, including the Russian Orlan-10 and two Iranian Shahed models — "Shahed-131" and "Shahed-136".

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Ukrainian troops are making progress on two areas of the southern front
As the spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Andriy Kovalev, said, the Defense Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation in the Melitopol and Berdiansk areas.
"On the directions Novodanylivka — Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka — Novofedorivka, they partially succeeded, they are holding on to what they have achieved," said the spokesman.
Defense forces continue to hold back the advance of Russian troops in the Lyman, Avdiivka and Mariinka directions.
Especially heavy battles continue:
— in the Lyman direction in the area of the settlement of Bilohorivka, Luhansk region;
— in the Avdiivka direction in the settlements of Sieverne and Avdiivka of the Donetsk region;
— in the Mariinka direction in the areas of Mariinka and Pobeda settlements of the Donetsk region.

The US may recognize a nuclear strike on Ukraine as an attack on NATO
If Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine to stop a counteroffensive of the Armed Forces, such an attack by NATO countries should be considered an attack on the Alliance.
Democrat Richard Blumenthal and Republican Lindsey Graham registered the corresponding draft resolution in the Senate.

☢️ Special headquarters have been created in Ukraine in case of Russia’s terrorist attack on the Zaporizhia NPP.
The head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ihor Klymenko, stated that this includes nuclear energy specialists, rescuers, police and medics. In the next few days, training will be conducted that will include road closures, the deployment of sanitary checkpoints, etc. Equipment for measuring radiation is ready.

The German defense concern Rheinmetall has confirmed that it will deliver an additional 20 Marder BMPs to Ukraine this summer — 10 pieces of equipment per month.
Also, the company, commissioned by the German government, has started work on putting another 50 BMP into operation for further delivery to Kyiv.

Russia increased the production of Kalibr and X-101 missiles by 3-4 times and also improved the use of missile weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles, — Deputy Chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence Skibitsky

Israel will sell its Merkava tanks to Cyprus, not Poland, as some media reported. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz, citing sources, writes that Cyprus will upgrade its fleet with Merkava tanks and give Soviet T-80s to Ukraine.

The UK intelligence reports that Russia has recently increased security at the Black Sea Fleet base in occupied Sevastopol and is recruiting bottlenose dolphins to guard it.
Russia uses trained animals for various tasks. The review notes that those stationed in the port of Sevastopol are most likely there to counter enemy divers.

The US Department of Defense believes that cluster munitions will help Ukraine resist the Russian occupation forces, particularly during the breakthrough of the defense lines, Laura Cooper, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia and Ukraine, said during the hearings in Congress, — Reuters. "The United States is not providing these weapons to Ukraine because of congressional restrictions on their export and concerns about allied unity," Cooper said.

Ukraine has taken significant steps in implementing reforms necessary to start negotiations on EU membership, — Sweden's Minister for EU Affairs Jessica Rosvall.

India is ready to help restore peace in Ukraine, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at a press conference with US President Joe Biden.

PACE supported Ukraine's accession to NATO and the Ukrainian "peace formula"
The resolution, adopted by 80 votes, calls on the member states of the Council of Europe, which are also members of NATO, to support Ukraine's membership in NATO, supports Kyiv's "peace formula", the prosecution of private military companies and allies of the Russian Federation and welcomes the creation of the Register of Damages Caused by Russian Aggression

Hungary managed to get the EU to allow the Russian company Metrovagonmash to service metro cars, Bloomberg reports.

⚡️ The Council of Europe demands a total ban of Russian and Belarusian athletes from the 2024 Olympics.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇺🇳The UN accused https://www.reuters.com/world/un-adds-russia-list-shame-killing-children-ukraine-2023-06-22/* the Russian army of killing 136 Ukrainian children, wounding 518 others, and using 91 children as human shields.*
In its report, the UN also accused the Ukrainian military of killing 80 children and injuring 175.
UN Secretary General Guterres said he was "particularly shocked" by the attacks on schools and hospitals by Russian forces, and he was also "particularly concerned about the high number of such crimes against children by the Ukrainian armed forces."
[this is a really significant bit - Ukrainians killing children? There are no further specific details, though elsewhere the UN has claimed that Russia has used children as human shields]

Zelensky said that the counteroffensive of Ukrainian forces would take place in the same way as in the fall, when at first it seemed that the process had slowed down, and then the Armed Forces began to advance rapidly.

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopts a resolution of full support for President Zelensky's peace plan.
In addition to supporting the plan, the resolution contains 12 points, including the recognition of Russia's war crimes and its intentions to blow up the ZNPP, threatening the entire continent.

The Turkish company Baykar has received license permits for the production of Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci attack drones in Ukraine. The plant is scheduled to open in 2025

Prigozhin has released a new interview in which he discusses the current state of affairs as well as the events that led up to the “SMO”’s launch. In this first section, he argues that Russians have been plundering the Donbas since 2014, and the 2022 conflict began for motives other from those advertised to the public.

French President Macron said (https://www.francetvinfo.fr/replay-radio/8h30-fauvelle-dely/sommet-pour-un-nouveau-pacte-financier-ce-qu-il-faut-retenir-de-l-interview-d-emmanuel-macron-invite-exceptionnel-de-franceinfo_5876447.html) he had no reason to talk to Putin on the phone, but added that he would pick up the phone if the Russian president called him.

Collaborator Vladimir Saldo threatened to strike bridges, including in Moldova, after the shelling of the Chongar Bridge. In response, the Moldovan Foreign Ministry condemned the threats of the Russian protege and summoned the Russian ambassador for explanations

Prigozhin continues to be interesting. He should stay away from windows in tall buildings. Or not.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/23/world/europe/russia-prigozhin-putin-war-ukraine.html

Strelkov / Girkin is apparently critical, but he’s often in gadfly mode too.