Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

998 replies

MagicFox · 06/06/2023 13:13

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

  1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
  1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
  1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful
OP posts:
Thread gallery
161
RedToothBrush · 11/06/2023 21:30

Today's reports suggest that Ukraine has moved forward in one area 6km in 24hrs. Apparently there has been movement on the Kremmina front too but it's more like a few hundred metres.

This thread explains how far there is to go before a 'breakthrough'

Rob Lee AT RALee85
For context, Blahodatne and Neskuchne, which Ukraine appears to have retaken, are shaded in black, and I left markers for Makarivka and Urozhaine, where fighting is reportedly taking place. Russia's main defensive line is 10km south of Urozhaine

This was always going to be tough and take time. Ukraine appears to be making important progress, but the hardest fight in this counteroffensive may not begin for another week or more.

In most places Ukraine is more like 16 - 20km.

Even in the area close to these liberated villages, the situation isn't that simple. Russia have apparently blown the dam nearby today (which are in the same river valley). This is likely a defensive strategy and suggestions they will fall back to the main defensive line in this area. However the road is actually higher than the dam level so it won't flood so it's effectiveness is being questioned somewhat as the higher ground would be taken by the Ukrainians over the Russian fortifications.

notimagain · 11/06/2023 21:51

minsmum · 11/06/2023 19:46

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1667940345194110981 just found this on Twitter about Russian ammunition, it appears to be an answer to something, I don't know what and I also don't know if it's true but wondered what our experts might think

I suspect chemically it's possible if the quality control is poor in the ordnance factories, but just how credible this report is - don't know...I've seen it in various places today, including here.

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02DRBsAxmd7QtXJhTLfDfjbn24i8dGovgaMR4vBKSVtPYnjT2wm7AiiZdBdUhHp9EGl

TBH I'm treating all reports (state of ammunition, tank losses, claims over advance and geographical gains) with a fair degree of scepticism ATM but I like a lot of what I'm hearing.

Log in or sign up to view

See posts, photos and more on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02DRBsAxmd7QtXJhTLfDfjbn24i8dGovgaMR4vBKSVtPYnjT2wm7AiiZdBdUhHp9EGl

blueshoes · 11/06/2023 22:00

Mb76 · 11/06/2023 20:09

A lovely but very sad piece on Bakhmut and what it was famous for. I’ve mentioned the salt before but how could I forget the sparkling wine, no celebration was complete without it! It was called “Artemivsk (Soviet name of Bakhmut) champagne”, we especially loved the red sparkling variety. Had loads of it at my wedding… I hope one day these businesses will be restored.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65812846

Mb76, thanks for sharing the link.

"It was an amazing feeling. It is an underground city so vast that they used proper vehicles to get about within it - lorries to transport goods, and people used buggies. There were endless rows of bottles, and you couldn't see where they ended."

I hope these caves survived somehow. We must bring the city and its wine back to its former glory and to drink the red sparkling champagne again. Flowers

MissConductUS · 11/06/2023 22:22

notimagain · 11/06/2023 21:51

I suspect chemically it's possible if the quality control is poor in the ordnance factories, but just how credible this report is - don't know...I've seen it in various places today, including here.

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02DRBsAxmd7QtXJhTLfDfjbn24i8dGovgaMR4vBKSVtPYnjT2wm7AiiZdBdUhHp9EGl

TBH I'm treating all reports (state of ammunition, tank losses, claims over advance and geographical gains) with a fair degree of scepticism ATM but I like a lot of what I'm hearing.

I agree with your skepticism. Between opsec and the fog of war, reliable information is fairly scarce.

I don't know if the report of Russian ammo exploding is true, but there's another explanation besides poor quality control. It wouldn't surprise me a bit if the Ukrainians had planted spiked ammunition where the Russians would find and use it. This is not a new tactic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploding_ammunition

Exploding ammunition - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploding_ammunition

FrenchBoule · 11/06/2023 22:43

@DesdamonasHandkerchief I was just about to write the same about RuZZian imperialism. Something that Baltic countries and Poland were repeating over and over.

I’m sitting on twitter and lots of info coming through.
Russian base that apparently Putler has visited in April has been hit, confirmed

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1667179387471515648

Hot around Tokmak, Ukrainians apparently can see Melitopol. Multiple posts about heavy explosions there

https://twitter.com/soransafin/status/1668005462757851136

RuZZian ammo depot went kaboom

https://twitter.com/theinformantofc/status/1667952665572024320

Stupid question- could anybody explain „bavovna” to me please? I know it’s cotton but second meaning is it explosion?

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1667179387471515648

minsmum · 11/06/2023 22:54

https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1667896214560604160 a hacker or hackers have managed to gain access to crypto currency wallets belonging to Russian specials services people and transferred the bitcoins to Ukrainian aid organisations. Unconfirmed of course

https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1667896214560604160

MissConductUS · 11/06/2023 23:05

The WSJ has published an update this afternoon with some interesting bits. General Ben Hodges is quoted as saying that some of the lines of attack are intended to confuse the Russians about where the main objective will be (I've bolded that part).

Ukraine’s Offensive Begins With Ground Gained, Tanks Lost - Kyiv’s forces, armed with potent Western weaponry, probe Russian lines for weak spots

Updated June 11, 2023 3:48 pm ET

ORIKHIV, Ukraine — In the first days of their big offensive, Ukrainian troops thrust their new Western tanks at several points along the Russians’ defensive lines.

Some assaults went better than others.

“There were more of them than we expected,” said a 35-year-old platoon commander with Ukraine’s 21st Mechanized Brigade, who took part in an assault near Orikhiv in the southern Zaporizhzhia region.

His German-made Leopard II tank cut down Russian infantry, but another line of soldiers stepped in to replace them, and then another, he said. Rocket-propelled grenades whistled past. Some bounced off the tank. The fields were covered in mines. Gains were smaller than hoped for.

Other units made more progress further east, taking villages near the town of Velyka Novosilka. “It’s just the beginning,” said the platoon commander.

Ukraine’s summer offensive could decide whether the country succeeds in casting Russian forces out of some of the nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory they currently occupy. A successful offensive could encourage the U.S.-led West to continue to supply Kyiv with arms and money.

A failure could intensify international calls to freeze the fighting and negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin—a scenario that Ukraine fears could end hopes of ever restoring its borders.

Ukrainian forces, including brigades newly trained by Western countries and armed with sophisticated Western weapons, are attempting a feat of arms that could go a long way toward deciding the fate of the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II: to break through the formidable lines of a Russian army that knows the Ukrainians are coming.

Russia has had months to fortify its positions in eastern and southern Ukraine, while Kyiv awaited the formation and training of fresh forces and the arrival of German Leopards, U.S.-made Bradley Fighting Vehicles and other weapons from its allies.

So far, Ukrainian forces are only probing the outer limits of Russia’s defenses in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia and eastern Donetsk regions, looking for the most promising places to attack the more formidable fortifications that lie a few miles beyond.

The Russians’ first lines of defense are designed to hold up the Ukrainians long enough so that Moscow can identify where Kyiv is planning its main thrust and deploy reserves, say military analysts.

The flooding of the Kherson region after the destruction of a dam at Nova Kakhovka last week may allow Russia to use more reserves from that area, where Ukrainian troops are unlikely to be able to cross the river Dnipro, for now.

Ukrainian forces are trying to make it hard for Russia’s reserves to join the fight by targeting logistics, command points and troop concentrations with longer-range strikes.

“Ukrainian forces are attempting to do something no other European military is currently capable of: conducting sustained combined-arms operations at scale against a peer-adversary in a state-on-state, high-intensity war,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a London-based defense analyst.

Among Western militaries, only the U.S. is capable of the sort of complex offensive Kyiv is attempting—but Ukraine lacks the U.S.’s air power, Gady said.
Ukraine’s first probes near Orikhiv, south of Zaporizhzhia city, suffered an early setback when an armored column ran into a minefield and was then hit by incoming fire.

Russian military bloggers gloated over footage appearing to show the destruction of numerous vehicles. But videos posted online mostly showed hits on the same tanks from different angles, according to Western military analysts.

Two Leopards and four Bradleys were destroyed, and a French armored personnel carrier and U.S.-made Oshkosh combat vehicle were abandoned, according to the Oryx independent team of analysts tracking both sides’ losses in the war.

The Russians used aircraft including a helicopter and drones to strike the column and direct artillery fire. They flew with impunity as the Ukrainians had limited air-defense weapons to target them.

Around Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk region, however, a Ukrainian push appeared to gather momentum over the weekend. In a small town behind the front line, soldiers returning from combat were tired but quietly satisfied, reporting a steady advance with the taking of villages and Russian prisoners.

Ukraine’s armed forces posted a video showing troops of the 68th Jaeger Brigade raising a Ukrainian flag outside a ruined building in the village of Blahodatne, south of Velyka Novosilka.

The Ukrainian probes are aimed at finding vulnerabilities, said Col. Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for Ukraine’s eastern military command. “Everything is focused on weakening them to the max, and attriting their forces,” he said.
Thus far, the Ukrainians are using only limited forces, and Kyiv isn’t yet showing its hand, said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe.

“Some of what we are seeing is intended, perhaps, to confuse the Russians as to where the main attack is going to be,” he said. When the main thrust of the Ukrainian offensive comes, he said, it will likely include formations with several hundreds of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

Some of the initial assaults last week appeared to lack support air defenses, which left tanks and other vehicles vulnerable to attacks from Russian drones and helicopter gunships.

“Ukraine doesn’t control the air. That’s just the reality of the situation,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. It has been decades since any military tried to attack established defensive positions without air supremacy, he said.

“People forget how hard this is, what Ukraine is trying to do,” he said.
A tank mechanic with the Ukrainian 21st brigade said further tanks had sustained significant damage but had been safely removed from the battlefield, including at least one that was towed out.

The crew escaped safely from one of the tanks that was left behind, he added. At least one soldier from another unit was severely injured while trying to help recover a Leopard tank.

The platoon commander with the 21st brigade said the Leopards were performing well, even though a few had been lost. Small ordinance bounced off the German tanks, and their fire is far more accurate than the Soviet-era tanks he was used to, he said—especially at night, thanks to their thermal vision mode.

Ukraine’s Offensive Begins With Ground Gained, Tanks Lost

Kyiv’s forces, armed with potent Western weaponry, are probing the Russian lines for weak spots.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-counteroffensive-notches-small-gains-after-costly-early-assaults-288c7907?mod=hp_lead_pos3

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 12/06/2023 07:41

Oh and make sure you scroll down to the bit about auto translation, I am sure that’s correct.

Natsku · 12/06/2023 08:58

minsmum · 11/06/2023 22:54

https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1667896214560604160 a hacker or hackers have managed to gain access to crypto currency wallets belonging to Russian specials services people and transferred the bitcoins to Ukrainian aid organisations. Unconfirmed of course

Oh that is nice, well done those hackers (if true, of course, hopefully it is)

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 12/06/2023 09:48

A military defector (pilot) who fled Russia on foot has given a rare interview to the BBC, in which he paints a picture of an army suffering heavy losses and experiencing low morale.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65867990

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/06/2023 09:50

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-11-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11.
  • Ukrainian forces made visually verified advances in western Donetsk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast, which Russian sources confirmed but sought to downplay.
  • Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Russian forces are transferring their most combat-capable units from the Kherson direction to the Bakhmut and Zaporizhia directions.
  • Russian forces conducted a limited series of drone strikes targeting eastern Ukrainian border areas overnight on June 10 to 11.
  • Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin characterized the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) plan to formalize volunteer formations by July 1 as an attack on him and his forces.
  • Russia and Ukraine conducted a near one-for-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange.
  • Russian forces continued limited ground attacks south of Kreminna.
  • Ukrainian and Russian forces continued limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • Ukrainian forces made gains near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of June 10.
  • Russian milbloggers claimed that rain along the Zaporizhia Oblast front may slow Ukrainian operations in the coming days.
  • The Republic of Chechnya reportedly formed two new regiments – Akhmat-Russia and Akhmat-Chechnya – equipped with commercially-available Chinese armored equipment.
  • Saboteurs, reportedly including Ukrainian partisans, conducted two discrete improvised explosive device (IED) attacks against railways in occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 12/06/2023 09:52

Ukrainian intelligence warns that Russians, have just mined the Crimean Titan chemical plant in Armyansk to release 200 tons of ammonia

This will environmentally devastate a huge area.

Ukraine warned about the Kakhovka Dam and no one listened.

Let's hope this time is different.

twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1668174163599654913?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

prettybird · 12/06/2023 09:56

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 12/06/2023 09:48

A military defector (pilot) who fled Russia on foot has given a rare interview to the BBC, in which he paints a picture of an army suffering heavy losses and experiencing low morale.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65867990

Interesting that he says. "If we compare this to the war in Afghanistan in the 1980s, we know that the Soviet Union lost 333 helicopters there. I believe that we've experienced the same losses in one year."

The Kyiv Independent running total of helicopter losses was 299 - so it's in that ball park.

Igotjelly · 12/06/2023 10:03

Just listened to the latest Ukrainecast from Friday (entitled "Surviving the Kakhovka floods") and they were talking to Gabriel Gatehouse, one of their regular presenters. He was suggesting that there is no realistic way of militarily winning a war against a nuclear armed state. It was put to him that this is exactly what happened in Vietnam and in Afghanistan (twice) but he argued that Ukraine is different because Russia, and in particular Putin, see this as an existential struggle. He acknowledges that this is rubbish as clearly Ukraine poses no existential threat to Russia but suggests that given Russia is the nuclear armed state their conception of the situation matters.

As such his view is that this war can only end in Ukraine's favour either at the negotiating table (and with the need to cede territory) or with a change of regime in Moscow, which can only happen from within.

In summary his view is that "the idea that Ukraine can defeat Russia militarily, take back its territory, and that Putin will accept defeat is a fantasy."

What are people's thoughts. In my heart I want to disagree and shout it from the rooftops but I do get his, rather uncomfortable, point.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/06/2023 10:11

First reaction is that it's plain silly.

TheABC · 12/06/2023 10:13

@Igotjelly, how does that square with the Korean peninsula conflict or the long-running problems between Iran and Israel?

Ukraine has one goal; to kick Russia out of its territory. I think it can do that and if they degrade the Russian army sufficiently, they can maintain a frozen conflict or armed truce until something changes politically in Russia.

You can win against a nuclear power; you just have to be smarter about how you do it. However, we have to be prepared for sanctions and monitoring for the long haul and I suspect Russia will need to go through a break up internally, before it is ready to join the 21st century.

What I do want to see is a better response to the dam explosion/sabotage. Russia must koy get away with it.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/06/2023 10:17

Secondly if we give way to every dictator who frames, or genuinely believes, that they should be able to take over other countries because it's an existential threat - it's going to happen over and over again. One day they'll come up against someone who will say "go ahead".

Igotjelly · 12/06/2023 10:35

Well that all makes me feel a bit better 😁

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/06/2023 10:48

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Shoigu seeks to integrate (https://kyivindependent.com/wagner-group-boss-rejects-russias-defense-ministry-order-to-convert-mercenaries-into-regular-army/) mercenaries into regular army amid conflict with Wagner.
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin rejected the order and said on June 11 that his mercenaries “would not sign any contracts with Shoigu."

⚡️Official: Russia moves (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-russia-moves-its-capable-troops-from-kherson-oblast-to-other-directions-after-kakhovka-dam-explosion/) troops from Kherson Oblast to other directions after Kakhovka dam disaster.
Maliar said Russian marines, airborne troops, and 49th Army units had been redeployed to the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut directions.

⚡️Official: Russia blows (https://kyivindependent.com/official-russians-blew-up-dam-in-donetsk-oblast-causing-flooding-on-both-banks-of-river/) up small dam in area near counteroffensive operations in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Governor: Water level drops (https://kyivindependent.com/governor-water-level-decreases-in-kherson-oblast-after-kakhovka-dam-explosion/) in Kherson Oblast after Kakhovka dam disaster. The total flooded area in Kherson Oblast has nearly halved, decreasing from 139 to 77.8 square kilometers, Oleksandr Prokudin, the regional governor, reported on June 11.
The average water level has dropped to 4 meters, according to the report.

⚡️International Criminal Court starts (https://kyivindependent.com/international-criminal-court-starts-investigation-into-destroyed-nova-kakhovka-dam-2/)* investigation into destroyed Nova Kakhovka dam.*

⚡️ Ukrainian military reports liberating Blahodatne village (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-liberates-blahodatne/) in Donetsk Oblast.

Shortly after the Ukrainian army took control of the village of Blahodatne, another settlement, Makarivka, was liberated

⚡️Ukrainian military confirms liberation (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-military-confirms-liberation-of-storozheve-donetsk-oblast/) of Storozheve, Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Military: Ukraine liberates (https://kyivindependent.com/military-reports-liberating-village-neskuchne-reclaiming-position-near-avdiivka-in-donetsk-oblast/) Neskuchne village, reclaims position near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.

According to Maliar, the advance of Ukrainian troops in two directions in the south of the country ranges from 300 to 1,500 meters.

⚡️Reznikov: June 15 Ramstein summit to focus (https://kyivindependent.com/reznikov-june-15-ramstein-summit-to-focus-on-fighter-jet-coalition/) on 'fighter jet coalition.'
At the next Ramstein summit set to take place on June 15, Kyiv and Ukraine's allies will discuss the details of the "fighter jet coalition," in particular, the training of Ukrainian pilots and technicians to fly and maintain Western combat aircraft.
Among other Ukraine's priorities to be discussed at the summit are air defense assistance, ammunition supply, and the creation of maintenance hubs for military equipment, according to Reznikov.

As a result of a Russian attack on an evacuation boat in a flooded area in Kherson Oblast, 3 people were killed and 23 civilians were injured, Kherson Oblast Prosecutor's Office reported on June 11. https://kyivindependent.com/update-number-of-injured-civilians-after-russian-attack-on-evacuation-boat-in-kherson-oblast-rises-to-23/

⚡️Russia puts flooded (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-puts-flooded-town-of-hola-prystan-in-kherson-oblast-under-quarantine/) town of Hola Prystan under quarantine, preventing evacuations.

⚡️Governor: Russian forces attack (https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russian-forces-attack-kharkiv-oblast-with-cluster-munitions/) Kharkiv Oblast with cluster munitions.
Russian forces have shelled the town of Tsyrkuny in Kharkiv Oblast with cluster munitions, Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported on June 11

⚡️95 Ukrainian prisoners of war returned home in latest exchange incl defenders of Mariupol, prisoners from Chernobyl and Snake Island, and those captured by Russia around Bakhmut

⚡️Ukraine sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-sanctions-russias-constitutional-court-judges-among-178-other-people/) Russia’s Constitutional Court judges.
President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 11 signed a decree to impose sanctions against 178 Russian nationals, including Constitutional Court judges, for five years.

⚡️After latest inspections, authorities find (https://kyivindependent.com/a-third-of/) over 30% of bomb shelters in Ukraine unsuitable for use.

Lower losses yesterday.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
Igotjelly · 12/06/2023 10:51

Silvio Burlusconi is dead! A loss in the West for Putin.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/06/2023 11:02

UNITED24 Telegram

The Russians in the south have built "one of the most extensive military defense systems," — The Telegraph
British intelligence has described Russia's efforts to strengthen its position as "one of the largest military defense systems the world has ever seen." The defense is built according to the "three-line system" — with different levels of fortifications:
▫️1 line consists of combat infantry positions.
▫️2nd line — trenches and concrete fire poles. Several obstacle courses are laid out in front of them.
▫️3 line — combat positions and hidden areas for reserves, with entrenched positions for transport.

IAEA Director General Raphael Grossi will visit Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia NPP this week

❗️The Main Directorate of Intelligence reports on the alleged preparation of a terrorist attack by the Russians at the "Crimean Titan" enterprise in occupied Armiansk. They have been blowing up the company's shops for several days and also planted explosives at the plant and nearby areas. The release of chemicals after an explosion can cause a man-made disaster.

UN wants to wait a few weeks before making conclusions about the damage and consequences for health and the environment caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP, in the context of the allocation of additional aid to Ukraine, — the Organization's deputy secretary general, Martin Griffiths.

The chief executive officer of the Raytheon company, which produces the MIM-104 "Patriot" air defense system, said that the company is increasing production to 12 complexes (batteries) per year, and plans to supply Ukraine with five more complexes by the end of next year.

Partisans blew up a railway bridge in the occupied Yakymivka of the Zaporizhzhia region, — Goncharenko
It is noted that the occupiers used the bridge to transport military equipment from Crimea.

68 enemy vehicles were destroyed and damaged in a missile attack by the Russian AF on warehouses and bases of the Russian Armed Forces, the village of Tavria, Kherson region.

The President of the Czech Republic met with a girl from Ukraine who was bullied in a Czech school
The incident happened during a school excursion — classmates asked the girl if she was from Russia, to which she replied that she was Ukrainian. After that, they started insulting her and even spat in her face.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
MissConductUS · 12/06/2023 11:03

Ben Hodges has published an assessment of the state of the counter-offensive. There is no paywall, so I'll post the link.

He discusses how we'll know when the main attack has started, what will happen with Crimea, and how the fight will play out over the summer.

Think Ukraine’s Offensive Has Started? Wait for the Heavy Brigades

Think Ukraine’s Offensive Has Started? Wait for the Heavy Brigades

There’s fighting underway across frontline Ukraine, Ben Hodges says the decisive moment will be when hundreds tanks hit Russian lines.

https://cepa.org/article/think-ukraines-offensive-has-started-wait-for-the-heavy-brigades

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 12/06/2023 11:17

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The next 24-48 hours will be a major deciding factor on how the Ukrainian Push into Western Donetsk and Eastern Zaporizhzhia Region is going to go
It appears that Russian Forces have withdrawn to what are claimed to be “better and more defensible positions” that are South of Makarivka though we won’t know how true that actually is until most likely tomorrow morning.

Russia's Defense Ministry has announced an unsuccessful attack by six maritime drones on the Black Sea Fleet reconnaissance ship Priazovye. The ministry claims that it happened around 1:30 a.m. 300 kilometers from Sevastopol

As of the morning of June 12, more than 72% of the water has already leaked out of the Kakhovka reservoir, the Ministry of Environment reports.

112 people evacuated from occupied left bank of Kherson region, including 54 women and 7 children - Regional Military Administration

The Polish aid for Kherson has arrived
Poland sent firetrucks, 10 water tanks with a capacity of 18,000 liters, 10 high-capacity pumps of 12,000 liters/minute each, flood control containers & boats that will help evacuate flooding victims

Experts say Kherson's famous watermelons and tomatoes will disappear for years.
About 94% of Kherson's irrigated land has been left without water. Kherson steppes, where cereals, oil crops, watermelons, tomatoes, peppers, aubergines and other vegetables were grown thanks to well-established system of irrigation canals, may turn into deserts next year.
And the current crop of watermelons in the flooded areas of the region has been washed away almost completely.

Nuclear-weapon states are modernizing and expanding their arsenals.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), all nuclear-armed states have accelerated the pace of nuclear arms buildup against the backdrop of Russia's war against Ukraine. This war has intensified the confrontation between the great powers and ended the dialogue between Moscow and Washington on strategic stability.

prettybird · 12/06/2023 11:39

He was suggesting that there is no realistic way of militarily winning a war against a nuclear armed state. It was put to him that this is exactly what happened in Vietnam and in Afghanistan (twice) but he argued that Ukraine is different because Russia, and in particular Putin, see this as an existential struggle. He acknowledges that this is rubbish as clearly Ukraine poses no existential threat to Russia but suggests that given Russia is the nuclear armed state their [conception] perception of the situation matters.

I remember going to a lecture by an International Relations professor at an Open Day at Aberdeen Uni (ds went to it under sufferance but he ended up loving the place and now had his MA in Politics and IR Grin) and he made the assertion that the only way to avert use of Weapons of Mass Destruction/Nuclear weapons was for both "sides" to have them, ie MAD.

I instinctively disagreed at the time Hmm but now I'm not so sure. Even though Ukraine doesn't have nuclear weapons (having voluntarily given them up to the very country that is now threatening them and who had given them assurances Angry), Putin will threaten and threaten to use them but won't go through with it for fear of what the other nuclear powers will do. That really would breach the threshold - and it would be Putin himself creating an existential threat to Russia. Shock

IMHO the Russian nuclear weapons are not in play despite the posturing (like the recent moving of some of them to Belarus)

So that leaves the war remaining a conventional one, so there is still hope for Ukraine.

Putin might try to do a "dirty bomb" though through an "accident" at ZPP Angry.