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Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

998 replies

MagicFox · 06/06/2023 13:13

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

  1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
  1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
  1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful
OP posts:
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161
Positivethought · 11/06/2023 13:02

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Thanks for the updates. I am so emotionally invested in this war and I’m pleased there seems to be a general lack of specific detail in reporting and hope this is a sign that all agencies are working together to destroy the Russian oppressors for once and for all.

Amispringy · 11/06/2023 13:41

twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1667854491356471298?s=46&t=En7uHsBtveeyWz6jMQkU-A

Budanov trolling. Reinforcing the Shhhh and sending vatniks on twitter into a frenzy.

blueshoes · 11/06/2023 14:01

Amispringy, good one from Budanov.

A little further down I saw this which really brought home to me the destruction of agricultural land in Kherson caused by the destruction of the dam.

Experts say Kherson's famous watermelons and tomatoes will disappear for years.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1667814630327033856

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1667814630327033856

blueshoes · 11/06/2023 14:04

Positivethought · 11/06/2023 13:02

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Thanks for the updates. I am so emotionally invested in this war and I’m pleased there seems to be a general lack of specific detail in reporting and hope this is a sign that all agencies are working together to destroy the Russian oppressors for once and for all.

Aye.

I too take comfort in silence. Patience and faith. I am not a spiritual person but this is one time that I find myself bargaining with god.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/06/2023 14:09

me too invested.

As my partner pointed out, losses haven't brought them to the negotiating table in any serious fashion.

We see from the grain problems and the dam they are willing to cause untold harm not only to Ukraine but to the Black Sea and other lands.

There is the ZPNN and there is a very large chemical plant on Crimea. The chemical plant has apparently been mined. The consequences of that could be as bad as Chernobyl.

So Russia has proved that it will create catastrophic damage without reservation. The key in that case is to make it in their interests not to.

One option is to offer them something, but 1) Ukraine won't go for that and 2) it teaches them that threatening catastrophe works.

I think the best thing to do now are to: -

  1. Plan how to mitigate these two potential catastrophes and start assembling whatever is needed for those plans.

  2. to send NATO in but with the clear statement that they stop at the borders.

  3. Make it crystal clear to Russia that if anything happens, then NATO -will- go in and they will not stop at the borders of Russia. They will go into Russian territory. The -only- way to stop this happening is to leave the big catastrophes unsprung.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 11/06/2023 14:10

blueshoes · 11/06/2023 14:01

Amispringy, good one from Budanov.

A little further down I saw this which really brought home to me the destruction of agricultural land in Kherson caused by the destruction of the dam.

Experts say Kherson's famous watermelons and tomatoes will disappear for years.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1667814630327033856

Last year my guest was sad when the first watermelons appeared in the shops because it reminded him that the Russians held Kherson, where the melons they always ate in Kyiv came from. Then it was liberated and early last week when he was eating watermelon with the kids I thought how lovely it was that this year he could eat it without unhappy thoughts.
Then the unspeakable bastards did this.

Positivethought · 11/06/2023 14:57

Unless there is serious turmoil in Russia I don’t believe putin (deliberate low case) will consider any alternative course to the one he’s on. It would be excellent if Ukraine were able to deliver a direct punch on the nose by ‘re-branding’ and launching their donated long range weapons into Russia.

blueshoes · 11/06/2023 15:09

Ducks, thanks as always for the daily takeaways

Russia has not yet granted the UN access to the occupied territories of the Kherson region to help flood victims, —UN Deputy Secretary General

The Russians are transferring the most combat-capable units from the Kherson direction, this explains the purpose of blowing up the Kakhovka HPP, — Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Malyar.
Malyar notes that, taking into account their own losses and limited reserves, thus realizing the inability to restrain the Ukrainian offensive in various directions, the command of the Russian occupying forces decided to "narrow" the possible geography of active actions of the Armed Forces and withdrew parts of the marines, and airborne troops from previous positions.
"Obviously, the undermining of the Kakhovka HPP was carried out to prevent the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction and release the necessary reserves for their transfer to the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut directions. Also, having destroyed the Kakhovka HPP, the Russian leadership is trying to direct part of the forces and means of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to liquidate the man-made disaster, thus making it impossible to liberate the occupied territories of the left bank of the Kherson region," says Malyar.

That is why the Russian f_ckers did it.

As you said, they might just get away with it unless the West imposes some serious consequences to Russia for the senseless, wanton and reckless destruction of the dam. If not, this will will set a dangerous precedent and form part of Russia's terrorist playbook to destroy ZPNN and the Crimea chemical plant if they were at the point of defeat.

China is also watching and learning ...

Fererr · 11/06/2023 16:46

Positivethought · 11/06/2023 13:02

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Thanks for the updates. I am so emotionally invested in this war and I’m pleased there seems to be a general lack of specific detail in reporting and hope this is a sign that all agencies are working together to destroy the Russian oppressors for once and for all.

I too am so emotionally invested in this war and want Ukraine to win. This article helped me understand the possible scenarios ahead.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/10/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia.html?unlocked_article_code=26U2kobCEcQadIy1Wc8ypcR5S-LTGRsmDucQQN59jH1BrNZoT3kjOFOwV9jP_7pgRrDGV8yYTB7kKbzbt5Vb43Rl0h9wk3AQwQ81hg39ZNDJtvn7KS8FNoU2dhFhp0iJ07xIu2pVMt2atM0tzmyhWKg_44FHW8MjknXPCSnfwy4VmD5ydPBe3NJWwrZQAVig47YfZv-jQO36LQG4zGAao1e3Y0HkAj_4LkWpA1KAd8Xb1OInBJZsJbBUFAdWmzm9dcPLX7EaiGZ093mfUWv5R7wTpSVEbW9hciIjJBqgKNZ4a0IsRCGECGT-ri1ezGrTKD8KTABmdmna0aQt1UPl_10ZlUWKS9gTckmUP2E&smid=url-share

RedToothBrush · 11/06/2023 17:24

Starting to see geolocated reports of liberation being suggested and accepted as accurate by more reliable twitter posters with a decent reputation.

Neskuchne and Blahodatne seem to be visually confirmed. With Storozheve strongly supported as likely. Rumoured that they have now reached the outskirts Makarivka.

All three are close together on a road that goes south directly to Mariupol.

Also rumours that the Ukrainians have cut the railway line between Melitopol and Crimea.

Things seem to be starting to happen.

RedToothBrush · 11/06/2023 17:26

This seems to be coming from both Russian and Ukrainian sources btw.

blueshoes · 11/06/2023 17:31

Thanks, Redtoothbrush. Green shoots.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/06/2023 17:39

@Fererr

Hi

It's quite a reasonable article but "Privately, U.S. and European officials concede that pushing all of Russia’s forces out of occupied Ukrainian land is highly unlikely." I'm not sure who they are talking about here. Most people are staying rather neutral and some very high ranking people have said that it's possible that Ukraine might re-take Crimea. Others have said no way. Without doubt, better air support would have helped.

Having said it's a reasonable article -and it is - the NYT has a very mixed reputation in its reporting of this war and its assessments.

RedToothBrush · 11/06/2023 17:44

Further West there are strong rumours that Lobkove, Levadne and Nesumne in Zaporizhzhia region have been liberated too but there's less confidence on this than former villages in my previous post at this stage.

Positivethought · 11/06/2023 17:47

Thanks for sharing, @Fererr . For various reasons there’s probably a lot of misreporting going on. I I think it prudent to not take any reporting at face value - which I think is along the lines of @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar is suggesting.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/06/2023 17:53

The Kremlin is trying to bring all Private Military Companies under one control.

Good luck with Wagner :D

In other news -
AT ThreshedThought
Lots of Ukrainian partisan strikes on railways south of Melitopol and in Crimea. Russian military relies on rail for its logistics so these are significant strikes.

RedToothBrush · 11/06/2023 18:08

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/06/2023 17:53

The Kremlin is trying to bring all Private Military Companies under one control.

Good luck with Wagner :D

In other news -
AT ThreshedThought
Lots of Ukrainian partisan strikes on railways south of Melitopol and in Crimea. Russian military relies on rail for its logistics so these are significant strikes.

One of these seems to be the destruction of a bridge. That's problematic as bridges are key strategic weak points which are not easy to replace.

This, coupled with the reported stopping of water down the canal which supplies Crimea with a key source of water since the dam was blown, means there's short to medium term problems ahead for Russia supplies.

Talk of movement (so far unconfirmed) in Luhasnsk province would further compound supply issues to Russian forces.

Strategically, cutting supply lines means even if gains for Ukraine are slow and at a high cost, they could reap significant benefits and large Russian collapses further down the line.

For this reason, I don't think it's a bad sign if there isn't a significant Ukrainian breakthrough in the immediate future. The picture building up of these seemingly small and insignificant incidents could well add up and prove more decisive some way down the line.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 11/06/2023 18:35

Piece on Russian violence and Kakhovka ecocide:

twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1667927331023847424?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 11/06/2023 19:46

Makarivka in Donetsk oblast has been liberated, Ukraine's deputy defence minister says:

twitter.com/faytuks/status/1667950978341953536?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

minsmum · 11/06/2023 19:46

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1667940345194110981 just found this on Twitter about Russian ammunition, it appears to be an answer to something, I don't know what and I also don't know if it's true but wondered what our experts might think

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1667940345194110981

Fererr · 11/06/2023 20:06

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 11/06/2023 17:39

@Fererr

Hi

It's quite a reasonable article but "Privately, U.S. and European officials concede that pushing all of Russia’s forces out of occupied Ukrainian land is highly unlikely." I'm not sure who they are talking about here. Most people are staying rather neutral and some very high ranking people have said that it's possible that Ukraine might re-take Crimea. Others have said no way. Without doubt, better air support would have helped.

Having said it's a reasonable article -and it is - the NYT has a very mixed reputation in its reporting of this war and its assessments.

Understand

Fererr · 11/06/2023 20:06

Positivethought · 11/06/2023 17:47

Thanks for sharing, @Fererr . For various reasons there’s probably a lot of misreporting going on. I I think it prudent to not take any reporting at face value - which I think is along the lines of @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar is suggesting.

Understand

Mb76 · 11/06/2023 20:09

A lovely but very sad piece on Bakhmut and what it was famous for. I’ve mentioned the salt before but how could I forget the sparkling wine, no celebration was complete without it! It was called “Artemivsk (Soviet name of Bakhmut) champagne”, we especially loved the red sparkling variety. Had loads of it at my wedding… I hope one day these businesses will be restored.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65812846

Oleksandra Cherednychenko standing in a wine cellar

Ukrainians remember Bakhmut, city of salt and sparkling wine

Residents share memories of their city, before its destruction in Russia's full-scale invasion.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65812846

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 11/06/2023 20:13

I'm no historian but if this thread is even half true it beggars belief that the Kremlin has got away with this ploy over and over again:

Moscow is awfully uncreative. in the last one hundred years #russianColonialism has been using the same invasion and occupation tactic over and over and over again. thread.

https://twitter.com/maksymeristavi/status/1569638459446366208?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

Mb76 · 11/06/2023 20:17

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 11/06/2023 20:13

I'm no historian but if this thread is even half true it beggars belief that the Kremlin has got away with this ploy over and over again:

Moscow is awfully uncreative. in the last one hundred years #russianColonialism has been using the same invasion and occupation tactic over and over and over again. thread.

https://twitter.com/maksymeristavi/status/1569638459446366208?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

It’s mind blowing isn’t it!