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Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

994 replies

MagicFox · 13/05/2023 15:17

40 threads, still here πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
221
MissConductUS · 01/06/2023 18:55

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

I'm sure our resident aviator will be along at some point, but I thought I'd point out that remaking the Ukrainian Air Force is a multi-year project, not a quick fix for anything. Here are a few things from that article that you didn't post.

In the long run, however, there are significant logistical and tactical advantages to Ukraine's acquiring F-16s. It will be easier for Ukraine to sustain aircraft whose parts are supplied by the United States and NATO countries than their legacy aircraft manufactured by Russia. It also could make it easier for Ukraine to integrate their air force into NATO at some future date.

The more Ukraine's arsenal is compatible with NATO's, the better. Ukraine was previously given AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM) for use against ground-based radars. They managed to β€œMacGyver” the system onto their MiG-29s, but the retrofitting was far from ideal, as Soviet-era fighters were never designed to fire U.S.-made missiles. F-16s with updated software will enable Ukraine to employ HARM more effectively, along with other weapons that were designed to be used by F-16s.

Other air-to-air weapons systems commonly available to F-16s, such as the AIM-9 Sidewinder and the AIM-120 (which presumably the United States and NATO will provide), will be useful for defending Ukraine against Russian cruise missiles (e.g. Kh-101 and Kh-555) and Iranian-made Shahed-131/136 drones. Ukraine's stockpiles of Soviet-era S-300 surface-to-air missiles has been dwindling, and there are a limited number of Patriot missiles available. The F-16's air-to-air capability will help those ground-based defenses last longer.

It is an open question whether the United States will supply JASSM to Ukraine, but it would not be unprecedented. Britain provided Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles and Ukraine has already used them. Storm Shadow is broadly similar to the baseline version of JASSM in terms of size, range, employment, and observability, so providing JASSM would not constitute an escalation nor cross a Russian β€œred line.”

F-16s likely will not grant Ukraine air superiority, but they will facilitate the defense of their air space.

F-16s loaded with JASSM could be critical to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov's stated long-term plan to re-take Crimea β€œwithout a fight.” Executing this would require cutting off Russian troops in Crimea from their supply lines via the Kerch Strait Bridge, ports like Sevastopol, and the land route from Rostov-on-Don. JASSM could give Ukraine the ability to consistently hit logistics hubs such as port facilities, ammunition depots, bridges, and command and control facilities deep within Crimea. It could also serve as a stand-in for the ground launched ATACMS missile (which Ukraine has unsuccessfully requested). The United States has significantly more JASSMs than ATACMS, so it might be willing to supply them to augment Storm Shadow.

AGM-88 HARM

The AGM-88 HARM or high-speed anti-radiation missile, is an air-to-surface tactical missile designed to seek and destroy enemy radar-equipped air defense systems.

https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104574/agm-88-harm/

blueshoes · 01/06/2023 21:11

MissConductUS · 01/06/2023 20:08

The US DoD announced a new $300m aid package for Ukraine yesterday, with lots of air defense munitions, ground combat munitions and various bits that would be quite handy in an offensive operation.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3411804/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

That's good news indeed. Despite the debt ceiling debacle playing out in Congress, US MOD stays focused on Ukraine and keeps it coming. Glad to see a good whack of air defence in there.

MissConductUS · 01/06/2023 21:18

I agree about the air defense supplies. As the article from Rand points out, the F-16 would allow the Ukrainians to tap the very large stockpile of air to air missiles that Nato countries have. They can also be moved around as the direction of attack changes. The surface-to-air systems are fixed, which is much less flexible and more easily attacked.

notimagain · 01/06/2023 22:54

@MsBombastic55

I think that Rand F-16 article doesn't really point out anything that's not been discussed before, other than the bizarre Sullenberger reference...

Anyhow, yes, it's known that the F-16 isn't the optimum choice for operating off less than ideally prepared surfaces, Then again the Uk AF has plenty of experience of operating off roads etc so I suspect they have a cunning plan to minimise the risk of damage.

They are also right that there might be an issue with radar range if the F-16s have an early'ish spec radar package...however I don't think anybody has really really established what package might be delivered.....the later versions had a much higher performance long range radar much more optimised for air to air/AiM-120.

It's similar with the missiles - a heck of a lot depends on exactly which version of Aim-120 gets delivered..the late model AiM-120s are fairly long legged.

I'd have to say that if I was a Russian fighter pilot I certainly wouldn't be quite be minimising the threat the F-16/Aim-120 combination poses in quite the way that Rand has...

MissConductUS · 02/06/2023 00:22

I think that Rand F-16 article doesn't really point out anything that's not been discussed before, other than the bizarre Sullenberger reference...

That was bizarre. Flight 1549 ditched after a massive bird strike. I assume they have birds in Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Airways_Flight_1549

US Airways Flight 1549 - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Airways_Flight_1549

notimagain · 02/06/2023 07:47

Yep, jet engines are very good at hoovering up potentially damaging debris off runway/taxi-way surfaces and it's a particular problem on anything with low slung intakes (e.g. F-16 and FWIW most civilian types with underslung podded engines).

https://www.prattwhitney.com/en/blogs/airtime/2017/08/28/what-can-you-do-about-aircraft-engine-fod

The Hudson accident was more a case of a mid-air collision with a sizeable number of large geese, some of which went down the intakes, which is not quite the same thing.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/06/2023 12:11

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-1-2023

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 1:30pm ET on June 1. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 2 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces conducted another series of missile strikes on Ukraine overnight on May 31 to June 1 and during the day on June 1.
  • Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) reportedly conducted another raid into Belgorod Oblast on June 1.
  • Russian officials and milbloggers’ responses to the limited raid in Belgorod Oblast are indicative of a continued heightened anxiety within the Russian information space regarding the war in Ukraine.
  • Chechen commanders and officials launched a concerted attack on Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin on June 1 in a likely attempt to undermine Prigozhin’s appeal.
  • Prigozhin responded to the attacks claiming that he will continue to voice his opinions until Russian MoD officials are punished for their mistakes in planning the invasion of Ukraine
  • Chechen attacks on Prigozhin’s character may be a part of the Kremlin’s efforts to discredit and undermine Prigozhin as his forces withdraw from the frontlines.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove.
  • The tempo of Russian and Ukrainian offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction remains low as of June 1, and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along the southern axis.
  • The Russian State Duma rejected a draft law that would have granted mobilization exemptions to candidates and doctors of the science.
  • Russian occupation authorities announced that regional elections in occupied territories will take place on September 10.
  • Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin announced on May 31 that Ukraine is investigating over 2,900 crimes against children committed by Russian forces.

[^Ministry of Defence
(5/5) Russian commanders now face an acute dilemma of whether to strength defences in Russia’s border regions or reinforce their lines in occupied Ukraine.^ Mmmmm, now that's good to hear]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/06/2023 12:25

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️Russia claims (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-shellings-incursion-in-belgorod-oblast/) to thwart new cross-border incursion after explosions reported in Belgorod Oblast.

⚑️Explosion at Emergency Service grounds in Kharkiv kills (https://kyivindependent.com/explosion-kills-2-cadets-in-kharkiv-injures-1/) 2 cadets

⚑️Germany hands (https://kyivindependent.com/germany-hands-over-ammunition-logistics-equipment-to-ukraine-pledges-130-armored-vehicles/) over military aid to Ukraine, pledges 130 new armored vehicles.
According to a German government news release from May 31, Berlin has recently delivered to Ukraine ammunition for Leopard 1 tanks, two 8x8 HX81 trucks, and seven remote-controlled THeMIS infantry vehicles.
Germany also announced it will deliver new 64 tracked Bandvagn 206 vehicles and 66 armored personnel carriers. [Scholz took his sweet bloody time, but now he's roaring]

⚑️Netherlands looking to buy (https://kyivindependent.com/dutch-government/) several dozen new Leopard 1 tanks for Ukraine.
According to the unnamed source, the tanks could potentially be bought from Switzerland, but the Swiss government has not yet confirmed whether they are willing to allow the sale.

⚑️Zelensky: Ukraine’s air defense able (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraines-air-defense-capable-of-stopping-any-type-of-russian-missiles/) to shoot down any Russian missile type.

⚑️US to buy Gepard air defense (https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-buy-gepard-anti-aircraft-guns-for-ukraine-worth-almost-120-million/)* system for Ukraine in $118 million contract.*
A Florida-based company Global Military Products has received the contract for the purchase and delivery of the German-made 35-mm Gepard systems.

⚑️European Parliament votes (https://kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-votes-to-increase-ammunition-production-for-ukraine/) to increase ammunition production for Ukraine.
The Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) passed on June 1 aims to accelerate the delivery of ammunition to Ukraine and help member states restock their arsenals.

⚑️Western official: Russia suffered (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-suffers-60-000-casualties-in-bakhmut/) 60,000 casualties in Bakhmut.

Zelensky meets European leaders in Moldova, discusses EU, NATO integration process and further military support (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-europes-leaders-in-moldova-summit-discussing-eu-nato-membership-peace-formula-military-support/)

⚑️Zelensky meets (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-fighter-jet-coalition-leaders-at-moldova-summit/) 'fighter jet coalition' leaders at Moldova summit.
The parties agreed to start training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets in the near future and discussed the future supply of aircraft.

⚑️Zelensky: Military action (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-military-action-in-transnistria-only-possible-with-moldovas-consent/) in Transnistria impossible without Moldova's consent.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has ruled out military action in Moldova's Russia-controlled region of Transnistria without Chisina

⚑️Zelensky meets (https://kyivindependent.com/president-of-ukraine-met-with-the-president-of-azerbaijan/) Azerbaijani president Aliyev, thanks him for reconstruction assistance.

⚑️US stops sharing information (https://kyivindependent.com/us-stops-sharing-information-with-russia-on-nuclear-weapons/) with Russia on nuclear weapons.
The U.S. announced on June 1 that it has stopped sharing some key information on its nuclear arsenal with Russia due to Moscow's unilateral suspension of the New START Treaty.

⚑️Media: Pentagon (https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-musks-spacex-close-deal-to-provide-starlink-to-ukraine/),* Musk's SpaceX close deal to provide Starlink to Ukraine.*
Elon Musk's SpaceX has won a contract from the U.S. Department of Defense to provide Ukraine with Starlink satellite services, the Pentagon confirmed to the media on June 1.

Judicial reform formally completed as second top judicial body is appointed (https://kyivindependent.com/judicial-reform-formally-completed-as-second-top-judicial-body-is-appointed/) [as was pointed out, this is absolutely crucial to Ukraine's future post-war development]

⚑️Zakarpattia Oblast votes (https://kyivindependent.com/zakarpattia-oblast-council-votes-to-ban-moscow-patriarchate-church/) to ban Moscow Patriarchate church in region.

Our readers' questions about the war, answered (https://kyivindependent.com/our-readers-questions-about-the-war-answered-2/) - Vol. 3
What's behind "Z" as a symbol?
What can be done to cut off Prigozhin's sources of funding?
How systemic is the corruption of the legal system in Ukraine?
We're answering these questions, and more.

Large numbers of hardware lost again, cost est in excess of 100million $. https://twitter.com/ragnarbjartur/status/1664541130682253312

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/06/2023 12:45

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Ukraine received a new aid package from Germany
It includes:
▫️ ammunition for Leopard-1;
▫️ 2 tractor units 8Γ—8 HX81 and 14 semi-trailers;
▫️ 7 tracked and remotely controlled THEMIS infantry vehicles.
▫️ 64 tracked all-terrain vehicles Bandvagn 206 (BV206);
▫️ 66 armored personnel carriers.

Commander of the Ground Forces Syrskyi said in a comment that the format of the operation in the Bakhmut direction has changed, which is why there is a temporary lull β€” the enemy is replacing "Wagner" units with army and landing units.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ American company Global Military Products Inc. received a $118.3 million contract from the US Department of Defense to purchase and supply Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine. The contract will be performed in Amman, Jordan. The estimated completion date is May 30, 2024.

Presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Klaus Iohannis signed the Declaration on Romania's support for Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO.

The grain initiative has been stopped again: Russia has blocked the registration of the incoming fleet to all ports of Ukraine.
For two days, on May 30 and 31, Russia without explanation registered only 1 incoming vessel for inspection at the port of Chornomorsk, at a time when other SCC parties confirmed 10 vessels for three ports to participate in the Black Sea Initiative.
Currently, 50 ships are waiting in the queue for inspection in Turkish territorial waters, on which 2.4 million tons of food for the world should be loaded.

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China's special representative Li Hui expressed the opinion that neither Ukraine nor Russia has "tightly" closed the door to negotiations while adding that the risks of conflict escalation remain high, β€” Reuters
The publication notes that Lee's 12-day tour of Europe, which has been the subject of intense scrutiny, does not appear to have led to a diplomatic breakthrough.

French President Emmanuel Macron is again ready to talk with Putin.

πŸ‡¦πŸ‡² Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan declares that Yerevan is not an ally of Russia in the war against Ukraine.According to him, if in the West Yerevan is considered an ally of Moscow, then Moscow itself has a different opinion, and "it turns out that we are nobody's allies in this situation, and therefore we are vulnerable."
"It seems that there is a way to maneuver between all these clashes, but it is also true that the more difficult the situation becomes, the narrower the opportunity to maneuver. We maneuver not because we do not have an opinion about the situation, but because, unfortunately, there are too many worries, which does not allow us to be more involved in solving other problems," Pashinyan said.

πŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈ OrbΓ‘n said that a counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot be allowed
On the air of Radio Kossuth, the Hungarian Prime Minister called the counteroffensive a massacre and emphasized that it would only lead to new victims on the part of Ukraine, since the defending side, they say, bears fewer losses. [what an utter pissartist]

In Moldova, Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Prime Minister of Luxembourg Xavier Bethel and President of Serbia Aleksandar VučiΔ‡. The latter called the conversation "short and kind."

NATO countries are running out of ammunition, so members of the bloc should increase spending on the Alliance to at least 2% of GDP as soon as possible and sign more contracts with defense companies, said Alliance Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in an interview with Bloomberg.

The United States will stop providing Russia with information on the status and location of its weapons within the framework of the SNO Treaty, β€” State Department.
▫️The USA will continue to provide the Russian Federation with information on the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and ballistic missiles on submarines (SLBMs), conducting relevant exercises;
▫️The USA cancels the visas of Russian specialists who conducted inspections within the framework of the NSDC and will not issue new ones;
▫️The USA will not provide Russia with telemetric information about the launches of its ICBMs and SLBMs.
The State Department emphasized that Russia's decision to suspend participation in SNO-III is legally invalid, therefore, Russia is grossly violating its obligations under the treaty. Therefore, the US will use countermeasures in response.
"The United States informed Russia in advance of the countermeasures and is ready to work constructively on the restoration of the implementation of the new SNO Treaty," the message emphasizes.

This is Chloe the cat in the Kyiv subway during the air alarm.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/06/2023 12:50

Live: Ukraine Telegram

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡­The Swiss parliament did not support an amendment to the legislation that would have allowed the re-export of Swiss-made weapons to Ukraine. [sigh]
The discussion on this issue will continue. There are several proposals on the topic of weapons for Ukraine under consideration in the parliament.

Several Russian governors have reported nighttime drone attacks, in particular, on the fuel and energy facilities of the Smolensk region.
The governor of the Kursk region, Starovoit, also claimed an attack by allegedly Ukrainian drones - the drones were targeted by air defense.

Kyiv cannot strike at Iskander deployment points located in Russia, as this would violate Ukraine's commitments to international partners - Air Force spokesman Ihnat

Brazilian President Luiz InΓ‘cio Lula da Silva condemned (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/01/russia-ukraine-war-live-three-killed-in-kyiv-as-russia-launches-fresh-overnight-strikes?page=with:block-6478c8c58f08d8830e5b0779#block-6478c8c58f08d8830e5b0779) Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Before that, he remained on the "side of peace."
He also reaffirmed his position in favor of Ukraine's territorial integrity. [wonder what happened there - he's been more pro-Russia than anything up to now]

In the Donetsk region announced the forced evacuation of 239 children in seven settlements. They will be taken out of the town of Zalizne, the villages of New York and Pivdenne, and the villages of Kostyantynivka, Ivanopillya, Mykolaivka and Podilske.

"Military expert" Alexei Leonkov claims the UK planned drone attack on Moscow and calls for Russia to warn the UK government that it will nuke "decision-making centres" in Britain
Host Dmitry Suslov agrees and says Russia needs to make Brits more scared of nuclear war [Cuthburt Shaw on Twitter keeps a list of Russian threats of nuclear war. It's pretty long by now]

A grandfather sits by the body of his dead 9-year-old granddaughter.
The girl and her mother were killed by Russian occupiers today in Kyiv.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
Igotjelly · 02/06/2023 12:58

I honestly barely even blink now when those idiots in Moscow threaten a nuke, it’s so tiresome.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 02/06/2023 13:31

One of the more satisfying clips from Julia Davis.
I don't know who Viktor is but I like him!

Meanwhile in Russia: Viktor Olevich drops more truth bombs about the questionable wisdom of taking on the collective West and Russia's failing invasion. Loud arguments ensue. One of the hosts makes a surprising announcement, but it only makes him look bad.

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1664440784890867713?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

MissConductUS · 02/06/2023 14:13

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 02/06/2023 13:31

One of the more satisfying clips from Julia Davis.
I don't know who Viktor is but I like him!

Meanwhile in Russia: Viktor Olevich drops more truth bombs about the questionable wisdom of taking on the collective West and Russia's failing invasion. Loud arguments ensue. One of the hosts makes a surprising announcement, but it only makes him look bad.

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1664440784890867713?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

I've seen him before on that same program. These shows are heavily scripted. Victor's regular role is to play the devil's advocate so that everyone else can ridicule and mock him. What's changed now is that it's much, much harder to refute what he says.

blueshoes · 02/06/2023 14:19

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 02/06/2023 13:31

One of the more satisfying clips from Julia Davis.
I don't know who Viktor is but I like him!

Meanwhile in Russia: Viktor Olevich drops more truth bombs about the questionable wisdom of taking on the collective West and Russia's failing invasion. Loud arguments ensue. One of the hosts makes a surprising announcement, but it only makes him look bad.

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1664440784890867713?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

Viktor is a very brave man. I salute him but I also fear he will be sent to the war front.

blueshoes · 02/06/2023 14:21

Just saw your post MsConduct. Viktor is a good 'shill'. He plays his role with gusto.

blueshoes · 02/06/2023 14:28

My heart breaks for the grandfather.

MagicFox · 02/06/2023 14:28

I think he's so convincing because he's genuinely right and knows it! Easy role to play

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 02/06/2023 14:56

Some positive noises coming from Ben Wallace in relation to Crimea. He told the Washington Post that there is a "real possibility" that Ukraine could re-take Crimea this year. I generally think Ben knows his onions. Britain's Ben Wallace, a contender to run NATO, details his vision - The Washington Post

MissConductUS · 02/06/2023 15:15

Igotjelly · 02/06/2023 14:56

Some positive noises coming from Ben Wallace in relation to Crimea. He told the Washington Post that there is a "real possibility" that Ukraine could re-take Crimea this year. I generally think Ben knows his onions. Britain's Ben Wallace, a contender to run NATO, details his vision - The Washington Post

Unfortunately, it's behind a paywall for me. Can you access the WP for free in Europe?

I agree that Crimea is very much at risk. Not from a massive ground campaign, though. They'll nibble at the edges and attack the logistics and military targets.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/06/2023 15:18

Some extremely good reasons why Russia created strife in the East of Ukraine and want to occupy the whole country below.

(admittedly I don't know the source of these claims but some check out)

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
Famzonhol · 02/06/2023 15:21

Also the reasons why the West wants Ukraine to be pro-West.

Igotjelly · 02/06/2023 15:28

MissConductUS · 02/06/2023 15:15

Unfortunately, it's behind a paywall for me. Can you access the WP for free in Europe?

I agree that Crimea is very much at risk. Not from a massive ground campaign, though. They'll nibble at the edges and attack the logistics and military targets.

I don’t think it is usually so not sure how I was able to access it sorry! It was also linked on Sky’s site so maybe some more info there. Agree re the β€˜nibbling’ - might be enough to make the occupiers run for the hills!

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/06/2023 15:38

Famzonhol · 02/06/2023 15:21

Also the reasons why the West wants Ukraine to be pro-West.

Yup.

MagicFox · 02/06/2023 15:41

@MissConductUS

Britain’s defense chief, a contender to run NATO, lays out his vision
In an interview, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace says the alliance must press its members to spend more on defense if Russia is to be contained
LULEA, Sweden β€” NATO must compel its member nations to grow their military spending if the alliance is to deter Russia effectively beyond the war in Ukraine* and manage other threats to transatlantic security, Britain’s defense chief said, outlining his* ambitions for the bloc’s future as it considers its next leader.
β€œThe world is getting more dangerous, more insecure and more anxious, and the next secretary general has to be able to deliver that funding to make sure that that is never taken off the boil,” Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said in an interview this week.
Wallace, who has guided Britain’s efforts to arm Ukraine, most recently by expanding Kyiv’s battlefield reach with Storm Shadow cruise missiles, called for a more informative NATO, one that more persuasively educates voters about threats such as Russian** President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to defy international borders.
L
β€œThat is our demand signal,” he said. β€œUntil Ukraine happened, there were too many people who didn’t want to see the threat from Putin, and look where we are now.” The same complacency exists today, he said, about the threats posed by China and destabilizing activity in Africa.
Wallace spoke with The Washington Post as speculation intensifies about who will replace NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following his expected departure this year. Officials from alliance nations have said that likely contenders, in addition to Wallace, include Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro SΓ‘nchez and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
While the process for selecting a secretary general is murky, officials say members states will attempt to reach consensus via informal consultations but acknowledge that the United States, whose military might overshadows that of NATO peers, will wield an important say.
The race to replace Stoltenberg reveals insights about regional rivalries and dealmaking on the continent. Some officials in Western Europe have voiced concern that a secretary general from Eastern Europe, where leaders have adopted a harder line against Moscow, might push for actions more likely to plunge NATO into direct conflict with Russia. Other countries think it’s time for a chief from Southern Europe after a series of secretaries general from the north. Others say the bloc’s next leader must be a woman, or someone from an European Union nation, which Britain is not.
While Stoltenberg, of Norway, is not expected to extend his tenure again, officials say it’s possible he could do so. He’s held the post since 2014.
Wallace, who was posted in Germany as a young officer in the British army, described his qualifications for the job but addressed his ambitions only indirectly.
β€œI’m doing a job I love, and I’ve done it for four years, nearly,” he said. β€œBut NATO is incredibly important.”
Whoever replaces Stoltenberg will face the perennial challenge that the alliance, while energized by a renewed purpose following Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, still falls well short of self-imposed spending targets. Nearly a decade after NATO reaffirmed a goal that each country would spend 2 percent of its GDP on defense, only eight of its 31 members meet or exceed that target, according to diplomats and recent NATO data. Britain is one of those countries.
Wallace said one positive outcome of the Ukraine war is that more than half of NATO nations had increased their defense spending since Russia’s full-scale invasion** began, moving toward the 2 percent benchmark as they embrace the need for what he described as β€œcultural change.”
Most dramatic was the move by Germany, Europe’s largest economy but a longtime laggard in military spending, to overhaul its defense spending and military policy.
β€œNATO needs to make sure its members are match-fit, and some members are fitter than others,” Wallace said.
Wallace, Britain’s defense chief since 2019, was seen as a potential prime-ministerial candidate but has removed himself from consideration several times in recent races, saying he preferred to remain in charge of the military portfolio. His call for greater spending echoes those of successive American administrations of both political parties β€” most dramatically from President Donald Trump, who issued scathing criticism of the bloc’s spending record and questioned NATO’s core tenets β€” and of Stoltenberg himself.
He voiced a more optimistic view about Ukraine’s current battlefield effort than that described by U.S. intelligence officials, who in leaked intelligence documents earlier this year said that personnel and equipment challenges probably would result in Kyiv notching only modest gains once it begins a highly anticipated offensive to retake Russian-held territory. While U.S. officials say there have been improvements since then, they have also suggested that even the recapture of small areas could affect Russia’s war plans.
And contrary to the private ruminations of** some other NATO officials, Wallace said there was a real possibility Ukraine could successfully retake Crimea, the peninsula Putin illegally annexed in 2014, this year as Russian forces run out of needed equipment.
β€œWhat we’ve seen on the battlefield is that, if you punch Russian forces in the wrong place, they’ll actually collapse,” he said. β€œYou can send young men to die in their tens of thousands, which is what they do, but you can’t magic up tanks and weapons systems that they need.”
Asked about the prospects for Ukraine joining NATO, Wallace cited persisting differences about Kyiv’s path toward accession. He said that NATO β€” like the E.U. β€” should not repeat the mistakes of the past in overpromising to aspirants such as Ukraine.
β€œWe have to be realistic and say, β€˜It’s not going to happen at Vilnius; It’s not going to happen anytime soon,’” he said, referring to a NATO leaders summit scheduled for this summer in Lithuania’s capital. β€œBut what can those powers that want to be more forward-leaning do to help Ukraine, and to give it not 100 percent but a similar effect to what NATO delivers?”
Wallace said a number of nations were ready to forge bilateral or multilateral β€œmutual defense pacts” with Ukraine and commit to longer-term plans to build the country’s military capability β€œto make sure it’s a very expensive opportunity for Russia or anyone else to invade Ukraine in the future.”
That might succeed in deterring Russia because, in Wallace’s view, β€œRussia’s land forces are going to be significantly depleted for the next 10 years.”
As the conflict grinds on, Wallace said Western countries remain supportive of providing weapons and funding to Ukraine without pressuring leaders in Kyiv to negotiate with Russia or make concessions.
β€œBut we have seen reality, which is that we are all running out” of defense equipment that can be donated, Wallace said, meaning that Britain and other countries are being forced to buy more weapons than donate them from national stockpiles.
Wallace said the scale of Russian losses suggests Putin still believes he can prevail if he pours more troops into the war. He suggested Putin may not be getting accurate information about the military effort and might not realize the extent of his country’s military challenges until a moment of collapse or internal challenge.
If that happens, he said, β€œNATO and the West have to be ready for whatever happens.”

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