Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

I think it's telling that such a high-value target was located by a reconnaissance drone. So their radar didn't spot it, they didn't shoot it down, and they had no electronic warfare unit protecting it.

:o that seems extraordinary that they didn't.

Could it have been a tipoff?

13million up in smoke ...

Someone in the earliest threads was an ex-artillery (RHA?) officer if I remember correctly. 'Target' something, but not been back. They provided evidence of 18,000 Russian guns manufactured since 1969. That is a massive number. They whittled that down to about 7,000 operational due to pilfering, natural obsolescence, damage in exercises etc. A gun is a remarkable piece of kit. The barrel rarely damages. It is the working parts around the rear, the recoil, balancing system etc that can go to pot if not maintained. But if maintained they are as deadly now as they were 50 years ago. @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar will confirm, but if this figure is right less destroyed to date means that Russia will not have an artillery force of any measure across its lengthy front. At the very least those guns will have firepower but limited accuracy (towed or airlifted light guns which I doubt Russia has practiced much since Putin came to power). I bet those high artillery kills recently have been Russia's top end kit, not towed guns.

Even if it were a tip off, the Ukrainians needed to have it under close observation to correct the artillery fire. Did you notice how the first few rounds fell a bit short, then corrected? The drone that took that video should have been spotted and destroyed before it got anywhere near that close. It wasn't. So a multimillion-dollar air defense system was defeated by a $3000 drone and a few $800 artillery rounds. While you can't draw conclusions based on one data point like this, they don't seem to be able to protect high value assets.

It might well have been a target of opportunity. The Ukrainians have a lot of recon drones operating around the front.

A gun is a remarkable piece of kit. The barrel rarely damages. It is the working parts around the rear, the recoil, balancing system etc that can go to pot if not maintained. But if maintained they are as deadly now as they were 50 years ago.

The barrels have to be changed out every 2-3k rounds, as the heat and pressure of the charge going off weakens and deforms them.

https://defence-blog.com/russian-soldiers-burn-out-their-guns/

This was noticed as early as July of last year.

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1551303935654232066

The Russians used to import the very high quality steel used to make the barrels, but can't anymore. They certainly had some replacements on hand before the war, but it's unknown how many they've been able to repair and how many have been abandoned.

There was an S-400 battery taken out a few days ago as well, IIRC.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar will confirm, but if this figure is right less destroyed to date means that Russia will not have an artillery force of any measure across its lengthy front. At the very least those guns will have firepower but limited accuracy (towed or airlifted light guns which I doubt Russia has practiced much since Putin came to power).

well, the Ukrainian forces say 3500 as of now. Oryx counts very considerably less, but they work from independent visual evidence and say themselves that the true count is likely to be far higher.

Acquisition of artillery from other countries doesnt seem to have happened unless they got some from North Korea.

So yes their functioning artillery is far smaller but then again, they seem to mostly aim it at settlements. Their doctrine apparently is to literally draw a chess board of squares on their maps and pound each and every square to nothing. ... which fits with what we've seen of Bakhmut.

This is fairly much guesswork on my part, I'm not military at all. Actually, mostly I pass information from Telegram on to here and onto Twitter, and I'm opinionated enough to have drawn a number of conclusions frm that over the last what, 15? months I've been doing it. But I am in no way an expert.

The barrel rarely damages There are some shots of Russian artillery barrels bursting!

Maintenance in Ukraine of some donated hardware has also been an issue, it's been mentioned now and then specially in the early months. As Ukrainians have become more experienced, perhaps especially as more equipment has become mroe available and as Poland has set up a repair and renovation location, this could well be happening less.

I think you're right though; it's the high-precision stuff that's been targeted by Ukraine.

Just looking Oryx stuff up, saw this from them:

Multiple Rocket Launchers (202, of which destroyed: 140, damaged: 7, abandoned: 2, captured: 53)

Seems quite a lot.

There was an S-400 battery taken out a few days ago as well, IIRC.

Gooood, Gooooooood rubs hands, Empress Palpatine-like

Ukraine has also reported SEAD (suppression of enemy air defenses) success with US provided HARM munitions since last fall.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-touts-role-us-harm-missiles-strikes-russian-defenses-1741715

The fact that Russia doesn't seem to have much success stopping Storm Shadow missile attacks is a good indication that their air defenses have suffered.

The OODA kill loop has been long for a lot of the war with Russia. They didn't have the shoot and scoot setup that Ukraine had to field by necessity, as they simply had far more arty laying down far more advancing fire. That naturally comes with the cost of huge levels of shell drawdown, which is now one of the leading causes of restrictions in offensive measures. The other is, as you've found, barrel longevity.

This is why they're also moving to using mortars for mobility and reduction in heavy 152 mm and larger calibre barrel ware when it comes to flushing out target areas. A common tactic used around Bakhmut was to send in penal units as fodder and then get a response to rain down shells with a quick fire mission. This lends credence to the story that Ukraine and Russia had a common goal of grinding down Wagner in that city.

Another factor that's changed lately is the proper envelopment of the front with EW. The loss of something on the order of 10,000 drones a month by Ukraine is mostly attributed to to Russia finally deploying their offensive suites properly, about one such unit per every 10 km of frontline(!). This is a double edged sword since it means it can also affect your own operations and counter-battery fire if you're making everything electronic completely ineffective, so I believe it's mainly used against drones for recce and GMLRS which use GPS. That said, I have seen a video of an EW unit being hit by HIMARS lately.

There are some other things that have been noted lately, such as thermal camouflage for tanks affecting Javelin and other ATGM long range hits, and the massive fortifications being built which will hinder taking such territory.

Ukraine is potentially getting some inflatable Leopard 2 decoys from the Czechs delivered soon, we have the possibility of Dutch or Danish F-16s (not going to make any difference any time soon) and the Germans keep flip flopping on Taurus.

If anyone cares, there's a new War on the Rocks podcast out as of yesterday regarding the possible imminent Ukrainian offensive. A lot of what I said above is touched upon among other things.

I don't think there needs to be too much mystery to this, even the most ground based SAM/radar systems will have problems with some small targets, especially those flying slowish and lowish. Possibly by the time the operators were aware of it's presence it may have been inside minimum engagement parameters...(there's that OODA loop thing popping up again) add to that a bit of Russian incompetence and.....

One question might be did the Ukrainians have Electronic Surveillance Warfare (ESW) assets that gave them a clue where the system was in the first place or as @MissConductUS says was it simply Target of Opportunity?

The discourse around plans for the European Parliament to block Hungary taking the rotating Presidency are interesting, and potentially problematic for the EU's support for Ukraine. A resolution has been introduced that essentially says that Hungary is unable to hold the presidency given its continuing breaching of international law and its disdain for fundamental EU values. If Hungary takes the presidency, the Parliament have suggested that they will boycott by refusing to attend debates and ceasing legislative work, meaning nothing could be passed.

There is also a vote today in the Parliament to put money into the EU's defence industry, it marks the first time the EU budget has been used to support the defence industry. Its part of the ASAP (Act in Support of Ammunition Production) which aims to deliver 1m pieces of ammunition to Ukraine by the end of 2023.

The Prime Minister is also joining around 40 European leaders in Moldova for the second summit of the European Political Community. It marks Moldova's largest international event since it declared independence from the Soviet Union and sends a clear message to Russia. As part of security measures Moldova has closed its airspace and NATO surveillance planes are patrolling to ensure that there are no incursions.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2023

Key Takeaways

• The Russian military command has likely ordered Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces to begin offensive operations in Ukraine following the withdrawal of Wagner Group forces from Bakhmut.
• The claimed return of Chechen forces to offensive operations would break Kadyrovites from a nearly yearlong hiatus from participating in high-intensity combat operations.
• The Kremlin may be attempting to reintroduce Kadyrovites as the main offensive force following the culmination of Wagner forces and their withdrawal from the frontlines.
• The Kremlin may also be attempting to sever Kadyrov’s relationship with Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and re-emphasize federal authority over Chechen forces.
• The official Russian responses to recent attacks against Russia remain likely insufficient to satisfy the Russian ultranationalist information space’s desire for escalation in the war.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks northwest of Svatove and south of Kreminna.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continue to concentrate in southern Ukraine.
• The Russian State Duma appears to be considering measures to legalize the military recruitment of current or formerly incarcerated Russian men.
• Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lyubinets announced that Ukraine has a new avenue to repatriate Ukrainian children abducted to Russia.

Pressed Send too soon sorry

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Governor: Russian forces attempt to 'test' Kharkiv Oblast's defenses (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-shell-kharkiv-oblast-killing-1-man-injuring-another/).
In the past 24 hours, Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to infiltrate Kharkiv Oblast through the border village of Zelene, governor Oleh Syniehubov reported on May 31.

⚡️ General Staff: Ukrainian Air Force shot down 10 Iskander missiles (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukrainian-air-force-shot-down-ten-iskander-missiles-on-june-1/) on June 1.

⚡️Border Guard Service: Russian forces blow up road (https://kyivindependent.com/border-guard-service-russian-forces-blow-up-road-linking-ukraines-chernihiv-and-russias-bryansk/) linking Ukraine's Chernihiv and Russia's Bryansk.

⚡️Russian anti-Kremlin militia claims to have started another raid (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-anti-kremlin-militia-claims-to-have-started-another-raid-on-russian-territory/) on Russian territory.
The fighters of the Russian Volunteer Corps recorded a video saying they were moving towards the town of Shebekino in Russia's Belgorod region bordering Ukraine. Another similar group, the Free Russia Legion, also announced a raid on Russian territory on June 1.

⚡️Defense Ministry: Southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut remain in Ukrainian control (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-outskirts-bakhmut-ukrainian-control/). According to Maliar, the "offensive activity (of Russian forces) in Bakhmut has been halted." However, Russian forces have increased the frequency of artillery shelling, "indicating a change in tactics."

⚡️US to provide Ukraine with more air defense systems, ammunition (https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-provide-more-air-defense-systems-ammunition-to-ukraine/) following upsurge in Russian attacks. Ammunition for the Patriot systems, Avenger air defense systems, Stinger anti-aircraft systems, and additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, also known as HIMARS, were also included in the latest package, according to Kirby.

⚡️Zaluzhnyi calls top US general (https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-calls-top-us-general-asks-for-long-range-munitions/), discusses long-range munitions supplies.
Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi said on May 31 that he had a phone call with the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, discussing the front-line situation and military aid.
According to Zaluzhnyi, the two generals discussed supplies of long-range munitions and other types of weaponry and military equipment.
Zaluzhnyi also told Milley about the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive and possible future moves by the Russian side.

⚡️Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 7, injure 31 (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-kill-7-injure-31-over-past-day/) over past day.

⚡️Zelensky arrives in Moldova (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-moldova-for-european-political-community-summit/) for European Political Community summit.
Compared to the war, almost no one is watching this contest. And yet it’s this battle that will define, in some ways, what post-war Ukraine looks like.

Ukraine’s judicial reform has mixed reviews as it nears key point (https://kyivindependent.com/judicial-reform-has-mixed-results-as-good-candidates-are-vetoed-without-clear-reasons/)

⚡️Germany orders closure of 4 out of 5 Russian consulates (https://kyivindependent.com/germany-orders-closure-of-4-out-of-5-russian-consulates-after-moscow-expels-german-staff/) after Moscow expels German staff.

⚡️Czech Senate adopts resolution backing Ukraine’s fast-track accession (https://kyivindependent.com/czech-senate-adopts-resolution-backing-ukraines-fast-track-accession-to-nato/) to NATO.

⚡️EU Council sanctions 7 individuals (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-council-sanctions-7-individuals-accused-of-attempting-to-destabilize-moldova-ukraine/) accused of attempting to destabilize Moldova, Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine receives (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-1-2-billion-in-budget-support-from-us/) $1.25 billion in budget support from the US under the World Bank’s PEACE project, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on May 31.
The funds will be used to finance Ukraine’s social and humanitarian expenses, Shmyhal added.

⚡️Zelensky appoints controversial official (https://kyivindependent.com/oleh-kiper-becomes-new-governor-of-odesa-oblast/) as governor of Odesa Oblast.
President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree appointing a controversial official, Kyiv's Chief Prosecutor Oleh Kiper as the new governor of Odesa Oblast on May 30.

⚡️Court seizes $13.6 million of assets (https://kyivindependent.com/court-seizes-13-5-million-of-assets-from-pro-kremlin-party-former-official/) from former Kherson Oblast official suspected of treason.

⚡️Two Russian ships spotted loading Ukrainian grain, metal (https://kyivindependent.com/2-russian-ships-spotted-at-port-in-occupied-berdiansk-loading-ukrainian-grain-metal/)at port in occupied Berdiansk.

Who pays for US weapons sent to Ukraine and why it’s worth it. ()
The Kyiv Independent's video reporter Iryna Matviyishyn explains who actually pays for U.S. weapons sent to Ukraine and why it's worth it.

⚡️Military intelligence: Russia building new facilities for sorting, storing bodies of its dead soldiers (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-building-facilities-for-sorting-storing-bodies-of-its-dead-soldiers/).
Russia is building facilities for sorting and storing corpses of its soldiers killed during Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) claimed on May 31.

No figures of Russian losses posted yet that I can find.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

🇺🇸 The US is providing Ukraine with a new package of military aid, which includes, in particular, ammunition for Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS MLRS, Avenger air defense systems and Stinger MANPADS, — White House National Security Council spokesman Kirby

‼️100 Leopard-1 tanks will be delivered to Ukraine earlier than expected. German Rheinmetall worked very hard to prepare them for combat.
In total, about 230 tanks and 1,550 units of armored vehicles will be delivered. There will also be Leopard-2 tanks.

Norway will provide Ukraine with a five-year military aid program with a total volume of approximately 7 billion euros, — Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway

🇸🇪🇺🇦 The Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive one of the most modern CV-90 BMPs from Sweden, the Ministry of Defense reported. Ukrainian crews are already completing preparations for their development.

The Kyiv City Military Administration previously reported that the Russians attacked Kyiv with cruise and ballistic missiles — the air defense forces destroyed all aerial targets.
As a result of debris falling on the polyclinic and the adjacent high-rise building in Desnyanskyi district, 3 people died (one child), another 14 were injured: 9 were hospitalized, five were treated on the spot.

Russia spent 17 million dollars on the night attack on Kyiv
The Iskander-M missile costs up to 2 million dollars, the Iskander-K — up to 1 million dollars.
Outcome of the attack: 3 dead civilians.

On June 1, at a meeting in Oslo, NATO foreign ministers will discuss Ukraine's desire to join the Alliance and its further support in the war with the Russian Federation, — Stoltenberg

🇱🇻 The Seimas of Latvia elected the current Minister of Foreign Affairs Edgars Rinkevičs as the new president of the country

State Duma Speaker Volodin will go to Erdogan's inauguration instead of Putin. This was stated by Yuriy Ushakov, assistant to the President of the Russian Federation.

French President Emmanuel Macron offered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to hold a peace summit regarding Ukraine in Paris, similar proposals were made by Denmark and Sweden, — The Wall Street Journal.
It is also reported that Macron raised the issue in a conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a recent visit to China.

🤬 The Iranian cargo Il-76TD Pouya Air (EP-PUS) landed at Vnukovo airfield this morning. We are talking about the Tehran-Moscow flight.
Probably military cargo.

The UN has invited Kyiv, Moscow, and Ankara to start preparatory work on the transit of Russian ammonia through Ukraine, trying to save the agreement that ensures safe exports of grain from the Black Sea, — Reuters with reference to a source.

The United States is confident that Ukraine will not use the F-16 for strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation, — the White House.

International law allows Ukraine to strike the territory of the Russian Federation for self-defense, said a representative of the German government, commenting on the drone attack on Moscow the day before.
However, official Berlin opposes the use of German weapons for such attacks, he added.

In the Russian Federation, the names and dates of birth of illegally deported Ukrainian children are specially changed, — Vereshchuk

Forced transfer of Ukrainian children and prisoners of war took place through the territory of Belarus with the participation of the authorities of that country, — the representative of the Verkhovna Rada on human rights, Dmytro Lubinets.

Every month since 24th of February, 2022, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine reports on verified civilian casualties.
In fifteen months of full-scale invasion the official number includes 8,895 killed and 15,117 injured. This does not include the occupied territories.

The duty-free regime for the import of steel from Ukraine to the USA has been extended for another year, — the US Department of Commerce.

The tribunal in The Hague sentenced the former heads of the special services of Yugoslavia Jovica Stanisech and Franko Simatovich to 15 years in prison.

Speech by the President of Ukraine at “UA: War. Unsung Lullaby” conference on the occasion of the International Children’s Day, where he read the fragment from a diary of 8-years-old boy Iehor, who lost his beloved grandmother, two dogs and the city of Mariupol because of the Russians. Because, as the boy wrote, the Russians killed his city.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The US has allocated new military aid to Ukraine. On the list:

▪️missiles for Patriot air defense systems;
▪️Stinger man-portable air defense systems;
▪️ammunition for HIMARS;
▪️AIM-7 Sparrow missiles for air defense;
▪️Avenger anti-aircraft missile system;
▪️artillery shells, tank ammunition and small arms ammunition;
▪️precision aviation munitions;
▪️Zuni unguided air-to-ground missiles.
▪️AT-4 anti-tank systems;
▪️demining equipment and systems;
▪️night vision devices.

This was stated by John Kirby, coordinator of the White House National Security Council, during a briefing on May 31.

The MoD of Ukraine has ordered (https://quantum-systems.com/third-vector-order-from-ukraine/) 300 additional medium-range Vector reconnaissance drones for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the German company Quantum-Systems GmbH

The aftermath of last night's drone attack on the Afipsky Refinery, Krasnodar. [clip of it firmly on fire]

The Freedom of Russia Legion said it destroyed one military truck with ammunition and a Tyulpan self-propelled mortar in Belgorod region.
The RVC claims that Grad rocket systems hit the Interior Ministry building in Shebekino when Russian security forces and military personnel gathered there. [some dramatic footage]

Former Senate staffer Tara Reade, who accused Joe Biden of harassment, fled to Russia. She appeared in Moscow and answered questions from state media for several hours.

In Kursk and Rostov-on-Don, Russians are building large-scale complexes to store the corpses of Russian soldiers killed in the war against Ukraine. The area of each facility is over 4000 square meters

About 500 residents remained in Bakhmut, according to the city's mayor, Oleksiy Reva. Before the full-scale invasion, 70,000 people lived there.

🇿🇦 South Africa is preparing (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65759630) amendments to legislation to allow it to decide independently whether to arrest people under a warrant from the International Criminal Court. South Africa will soon host the BRICS summit, which Putin plans to attend.

🇿🇦 South Africa is considering moving the BRICS summit to China to avoid Putin's arrest under an International Criminal Court warrant, Reuters reports, (https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-mulls-options-icc-arrest-warrant-potential-visitor-putin-2023-05-31/) citing an anonymous senior official.

Russian Freedom Legion recruits Russians to storm Moscow - The Times
A legion fighter with the call sign Caesar has said (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-partisans-recruit-march-moscow-kremlin-ukraine-war-2023-b977k03g7) that Russian partisans who have attacked Kremlin forces from Ukraine have "thousands" of volunteers to join their ranks and will continue raiding the border until their forces are large enough to storm Moscow. [raises eyebrows]

Road signs in Poland are being updated
Kaliningrad is disappearing. Królewiec is coming back.

quick info graphic.

The Russian units' actions are interesting!

^‼️100 Leopard-1 tanks will be delivered to Ukraine earlier than expected. German Rheinmetall worked very hard to prepare them for combat.
In total, about 230 tanks and 1,550 units of armored vehicles will be delivered. There will also be Leopard-2 tanks.^

No actual arrival date has been mentioned.

Is Russia still sending aircraft to the Myanmar junta so they can terrorise their citizens with them? I'd have thought they'd want to keep them for their increasingly anxious war on Ukraine.

Here's a good thread by a military analyst I follow on Twitter regarding what challenges the UAF will face in a counteroffensive. She makes the good point that a lot of what we'll hear in the beginning will be deliberate misinformation (like the lead-up to D Day) or just wrong.

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1664057854284759045

Thanks for this, though frankly this bit is slightly disheartening isn't it!

"Some assessments are that Ukraine has (to date) practiced only basic combined arms tactics. The offensive that's coming is a bit like pulling a really good college quarterback who ran the triple option, and having them play in the Super Bowl"

I think she pushed the simile too hard there, as it assumes that the Russians they will face are a professional team that made it all the way to the Super Bowl. That seems unlikely. A middling college team is more like it.

She also points out that the Russians don't have enough men to keep the whole front under observation and fire control and that the Ukrainians will pick where to strike.