Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

Nor here, find them very interesting.

Such a relief!!!

The few weeks is because it is nearly Passover. They were trying to ram it through before the Knesset rose before Passover, but Netanyahu at least seems to have thought better of it - the Times of Israel says https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-says-hes-delaying-overhaul-to-allow-dialogue-but-vows-reform-will-happen/ :

"It was the decision to fire Gallant [the Defence Minister, and a member of Netanyahu's Likud] that sparked unprecedented nighttime protests throughout the country on Sunday night, including the complete closure of Tel Aviv’s Ayalon Highway for long hours, and the general strike on Monday, which saw Ben Gurion Airport, the Haifa and Ashdod ports, and large parts of the economy shuttered, as labor leaders demanded the legislation be halted."

ie the country virtually shut down today.

But it also says:

"Despite Netanyahu’s agreement to suspend the legislation, his far-right coalition partners insisted that it would yet pass.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told a large rally of right-wing protesters outside the Knesset that they represented the country’s majority who wanted a reform of the judiciary. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir told the rally that earlier in the day he had briefly decided to resign from the government over the decision to pause the legislation, but then decided to stay after witnessing the anti-overhaul protests."

Ben Gvir resigning would be great news, but too much to hope for.

PMK for latest thread and suggesting the world’s smallest violin 🎻 for poor Prigozhin being subjected to the same press restrictions as accurate war reporting… Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin accused Russian authorities on March 25 of rewriting history to cut out Wagner by forcing state-controlled media outlet RT to cut some coverage of the Wagner Group.

@Naem good grief, that was a massive shutdown then.

I hope Israel can stay strong and keep fighting against this reform. A civilized country needs an independent judiciary that can fight against the govt when needed!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-27-2023

Key Takeaways

• Rumors about the dismissal of Russian Eastern Group of Forces (Eastern Military District) Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov on March 27 generated a muted and cynical response in the Russian information space.

• Russian milbloggers also had a muted response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s March 25 announcement to deploy tactical nukes to Belarus, underscoring that Putin’s messaging is aimed at Western rather than domestic Russian audiences.

• Russian military leadership likely committed limited higher quality Wagner Group elements to the offensive on Avdiivka, potentially to reinforce recent limited tactical successes in the area.

• Russian forces made marginal gains around Svatove and Russian forces continue ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

• Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and made gains within Bakhmut.

• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

• Russia appears to be increasingly deploying elements of conventional formations in a piecemeal fashion along the entire frontline, including in southern Ukraine.

• Russian authorities continue forming new volunteer battalions subordinate to irregular formations.

• Ukrainian partisans conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack against an occupation law enforcement officer in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.

Russian authorities and some milbloggers have fixated on identifying and punishing individual commanders for the failures of their troops, rather than interrogating and resolving endemic issues in Russian command and control, force structure, and deployment patterns. [suspect this is one of the two greatest problems in the Ru forces, the other being corruption]

Avdiivka is as much of a hotspot as Bakhmut. The recent high hardware losses might have been in the fighting here.

Late check in!

Kyiv Independent Telegram

President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Ukrainian soldiers at frontline positions in southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast on March 27, according to the President's Office.

⚡️Media: Leopard 2 tanks from Germany arrive (https://kyivindependent.com/media-all-tanks-pledged-by-germany-in-ukraine/) in Ukraine.
The 18 Leopard 2 tanks pledged by Germany have been transferred to Ukraine, der Spiegel reported on March 27.
Germany has also sent around 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, in what der Spiegel’s sources said was a “large package” of weapons.

The first Challenger 2 tanks pledged by the U.K. are in Ukraine, the Defense Ministry reported on March 27.

⚡️Japan calls (https://kyivindependent.com/japan-calls-on-china-to-act-responsibly-regarding-russias-war-on-ukraine/) on China to ‘act responsibly’ regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine.

⚡️Avdiivka closed (https://kyivindependent.com/avdiivka-closed-for-volunteers-as-press-as-situation-deteriorates/) for volunteers and press as situation deteriorates.
Vitalii Barabash, head of the Avdiivka city military administration, said on March 27 that due to the worsening situation in the city, entry to the front-line city in Donetsk Oblast is now prohibited for journalists and volunteers. “There is an order – a direct ban on entering the city,” Barabash reported.

⚡️Wall Street Journal: Russia providing (https://kyivindependent.com/wall-street-journal-russia-supplies-iran-with-cyber-weapons/) Iran with cyber weapons.
Russia is supplying Iran with technology to bolster its cyber warfare capabilities, the Wall Street Journal reported on March 27.
The military cooperation between the two countries has been steadily growing since the onset of Russia's all-out war in Ukraine.

⚡️Media: Hungary votes in favor of Finnish accession (https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-votes-for-finland-nato-membership/) to NATO.

⚡️Poland detains foreigner suspected of spying (https://kyivindependent.com/poland-detains-foreigner-suspected-of-committing-espionage-for-russia/) for Russia.

⚡️Spiegel: Germany wants to increase defense aid (https://kyivindependent.com/media-germany-wants-to-increase-defense-aid-to-ukraine/) to Ukraine.
Germany is looking to boost military aid to Ukraine to more than 15 billion euros in "the coming years", der Spiegel reported on March 27.
According to der Spiegel, which has allegedly obtained a letter from the Ministry of Finance to the budget committee of the Bundestag, the funding go to procuring air defense, armored fighting vehicles, ammunition for weapons systems supplied by Germany, and artillery.

⚡️Belgium supplies Ukraine with aid to restore (https://kyivindependent.com/belgium-supplies-ukraine-with-aid-to-restore-energy-infrastructure/)energy infrastructure.

“It's a cult-like mentality:” Historian Ian Garner on the militarization of Russian society (https://kyivindependent.com/its-a-cult-like-mentality-historian-ian-garner-on-the-militarization-of-russian-society/)

Zelensky meets UN nuclear chief; battles ongoing for 3 cities in Donetsk Oblast (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-zelensky-meets-un-nuclear-chief-military-commander-says-all-options-on-the-table-in-bakhmut/)
The trip marks his third visit to front-line regions within the past week. While there, Zelensky met with Ukrainian service members and Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

⚡️ Financial Times: Western companies exiting Russia forced (https://kyivindependent.com/financial-times-western-companies-exiting-russia-forced-to-make-donation-to-russian-state/) to make donation to Russian state.
Western companies wanting to leave and sell their assets in Russia are now forced to make a direct donation to the Russian state, Financial Times reported, citing a new Russian ruling issued on March 27

⚡️Media: Bulgaria may secretly sell (https://kyivindependent.com/media-bulgaria-may-secretly-send-189-million-worth-of-ammunition-to-ukraine/)$189 million worth of ammunition to Ukraine.

⚡️8 killed, 66 injured as Russia attacks (https://kyivindependent.com/8-killed-66-injured-as-russia-attacks-9-ukrainian-regions-over-past-24-hours/)9 Ukrainian regions over past 24 hours.
Russia struck 124 settlements using mortars, tanks, artillery, S-300 missiles, multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), Kh-31 cruise missiles, drones, and tactical aviation, Ukraine's Defense Ministry media center reported on March 28.
Seventy-six infrastructure facilities were hit, according to the report.

So businesses that try to leave Russia now not only have to sell their business at a loss, they have to pay a fee to Russia.

This Substack article by Noah Smith gives a useful perspective on Russia's economic prospects outside the conflict, complete with graphs. It's also why I am confident Ukraine will win as long as the West holds its nerve.

https://open.substack.com/pub/noahpinion/p/putin-is-a-rest-stop-on-the-road?r=615mx&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

The numbers of Russian dead are staggering. More RU soldiers have died than the entire population of Oxford.

Thank you.

and if they had done it a year ago when they ought to have done, they'd be better off.

(Assuming this is not Russian businesses trying to leave.)

I;m afraid there are plenty of Western businesses still in Russia. Most of them, in fact, by a long way

https://www.politico.eu/article/majority-of-western-companies-continue-business-in-russia-study-finds/

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The Swedish furniture giant IKEA sold its factory in Russian Novgorod to the local firm Invest Plus.

Ukraine is unlikely to counterattack with a "NATO-style" assault, which involves a massive air strike using aircraft and cruise missiles, writes The Wall Street Journal citing experts.
The publication notes that Kyiv does not have the necessary number of fighter jets and helicopters for such an attack. [your article, @MissConductUS]

⚡️Germany plans to increase military assistance to Ukraine from 3 to 15 billion euros in the coming years, — Der Spiegel.

The US is considering implementing a tougher war strategy in Ukraine, hoping to win and return all its territories, – The Times citing a high-ranking interlocutor in the US administration.

France is likely to supply Ukraine with 40 Mirage 2000-9 fighters.
The French portal Intelligence Online reported this.
"After a long negotiation process that burdened arms brokers working for Kyiv for weeks, Ukraine hopes to receive about forty Mirage aircraft," the IO said in a statement. @notimagain
According to the publication, Paris plans to buy planes primarily in the UAE. Greece and Indonesia are also among the potential suppliers.

The UN Security Council did not accept the Russian-Chinese resolution on the investigation of sabotage on the "Nord Stream", – the Russian agency TASS

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a telephone conversation with his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda.

The placement of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus will not significantly impact the nuclear balance in Europe, said former national security advisor of the US President John Bolton in an interview with CNN.

⚡️France plans to increase the supply of 155-mm shells to Kyiv, the Minister of the Armed Forces of France said.
The minister added that France would soon hand over the SAMP/T air defense system to Kyiv.

Portugal handed over three Leopard 2A6 tanks to Ukraine, – Ministry of Defense.

EU countries agreed to continue the voluntary reduction of gas consumption by 15% in preparation for winter, – statement

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Minister: France to double (https://kyivindependent.com/france-to-double-supply-of-155-mm-ammunition-to-ukraine/)supply of 155 mm ammunition to Ukraine.

The intelligence community InformNapalm established the name of the Russian colonel who gave the order to bomb the drama theater, the maternity hospital, and the children's hospital in Mariupol.

🌸 Beautiful Ukraine. The saffron valley is already blooming in Transcarpathia.

Two Significant Points

Extra Ammunition

⚡️Bulgaria is likely to sell a considerable amount of ammunition to Ukraine through intermediaries. This can significantly affect the course of the war

This was stated by the former Minister of Defense of Bulgaria Boyko Noev in an interview with bTV, reports Euroactiv.

It is reported that Bulgaria's interim defense ministry will hand over almost 175 million euros worth of old ammunition to the state-owned military plant VMZ, and will receive new ones in return.

"This is the largest rearmament of the Bulgarian ground forces in recent history. This is a huge amount of ammunition — hundreds of thousands. There is a huge increase in the price of ammunition, and the Ministry of Defense will sell this ammunition through intermediaries to Ukraine," the ex-minister said.

The Bulgarian army has stocks of Soviet-style ammunition that the Ukrainian army needs.

"This is the amount of ammunition that can turn the tide of the war in certain directions on the Ukrainian front," Noev said.

and

Mariupol Theatre Bombing

The intelligence community InformNapalm established the name of the Russian colonel who gave the order to bomb the drama theater, the maternity hospital, and the children's hospital in Mariupol.

He is Atroshchenko Sergey Valerievich – the commander of the military unit 75387, 960 of the assault aviation regiment of Russia, which is stationed at the airfield near Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Atroshchenko was born in the city of Ovruch, Zhytomyr Region, and now rents an apartment in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.

InformNapalm claims to have transferred the data of Atroshchenko and his subordinates to the relevant structures for the execution of the warrant of the International Criminal Court.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇺🇸 The United States has supported the creation of a special tribunal against Russia. A State Department spokeswoman said that two models are being considered - a new international institution created by the UN General Assembly and a Ukrainian tribunal with some nuances.

A "professor from the trenches" - Doctor of Philosophy, junior sergeant of the 101st Territorial Defense Brigade Fedir Shandor - may become Ukraine's ambassador to Hungary, according to the independent Hungarian portal Direkt36.

Disgusting.

I would be interested in seeing a list of Western companies still doing business in Russia published so that people can decide whether or not to vote with their feet.

And for those who have left, I will gladly patronise them with a song in my heart.

Me too @blueshoes

And me

Yale Profession Sonnenfeld complied one.

Simple list

https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain

Complicated list

https://www.yalerussianbusinessretreat.com/

Thanks Ducks. The Yale List is very handy.

See also this Simplified List, which gives a birds eye view and allows you to filter and sort by sector, grade and country.

https://www.yalerussianbusinessretreat.com/simplified-version

Pick your preferred supplier in the sector. For example, if buying airline tickets, avoid Air China, Air Serbia, Egypt Air, Etihad, Emirates, Qatar Airways and Uzbekistan Airways (might avoid this one anyway) - no surprises there. Fly with confidence with Wizz Air, Lufthansa, British Airways, Air France, Austrian Airlines, Air Malta, Air Baltic, Delta, Korean Airline, Vietnam Airlines, Bulgaria Air and Azerbaijan Airlines (last one is unexpected).

Depressing Guardian article on Putins 'forever war'

www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/28/putin-prepares-russia-for-forever-war-with-west-as-ukraine-invasion-stalls

I don't know which way to turn but on a more optimistic note, it is worth flagging MissConductUS's post below about this contrary view:

Putin Wouldn’t Win a War of Attrition in Ukraine - He wants the West to think that’s his goal, but the longer the conflict drags on, the worse things get for Moscow.

The full article is below.

Somethings happening in Azerbaijan now. Assassination attempt on a minister. Tensions being stoked between Azerbaijan and Türkiye vs Iran. Everything comes down like a house of cards once the rules are violated elsewhere doesn't it?

twitter.com/abcgazete/status/1640846985857998857?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ