Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

So, de Santis has changed his tune, and there is another hint that the Ukrainian army may be launching a counterattack near Bahkmut soon. Apparently some Russian forces have been sent elsewhere. and Advdiyivka is the next target.

The Russians have gained a full 'several kilometers' in Ukraine in the last, oh, 4 motnhs. Not bad for the concerted efforts of the 2nd biggest army in the world, eh?

The IAEA said it's impossible for a de-militarized zone around the ZPP but they are still working hard to ensure its safety. Gossi kinda deserves a medal for his work to keep it safe over all these months.

Oh wow thanks @L1ttledrummergirl

another note: the Russian security organization CTSO, comprised of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan, also appears to be under some strain. Armenia is unhappy as Russia is not supporting it in the low level but renewed clashes with Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan's president is openly contradicting Putin.

Kazakhstan is also taking Russian assets from their spaceport that they lease from Kazakhstan over unpaid hefty fines.

https://www.businessinsider.com/storied-russia-spaceport-in-trouble-as-kazkahstan-freezes-assets-2023-3?international=true&r=US&IR=T

@L1ttledrummergirl Poor education standards feed into that too. An astute observer addressed the question as to why so many Russians believe they are under existential threat from the West, whereas it's Russia who invaded in the first place. Comes down to poor education and training in analytic skills - and when you consider Brexit, Russia isn't the only country with a problem.

Pic of one of the returned children

The smile on his face is wonderful ❤️

That pic is adorable.

@notimagain @MissConductUS @zuffe and any other military people

https://puolustusvoimat.fi/en/-/international-cooperation-in-finnish-airspace

International cooperation in Finnish airspaceDefence Forces
Publication date
23.3.2023 11.12
Press releaseThe Finnish Defence Forces carries out surveillance flights in Finnish airspace together with key international partners. The first flight will be conducted in cooperation with the United States on Thursday 23 March 2023.

There have been no changes in Finland's military security situation or environment in the recent past. Flight operations with international partners is art of normal bilateral and multilateral cooperation. The flights develop the interoperability of the Finnish Defence Forces, improve the common situational awereness and strengthen national defence. The flights show a mutual commitment to developing defence cooperation.

For operational security reasons, the details of the flights cannot be published.

Similar flights in Finnish airspace will be carried out in the future as well with different types of aircraft, both unmanned and manned. The flights are carried out under national direction and supervision, in accordance with Finnish national laws and regulations.

The joy on his face is palpable. Made me cry a little.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar , the WSJ covered the flip-flop this morning. There is still one odd ambiguity. I've bolded the statement below. When he says "more weapons" does he mean new weapons, like ATACMS, or does he mean more supplies of weapons like Himars and artillery shells that we are already supplying? The second option would be quite extreme and violate previous pledges. It would make our Nato partners very unhappy and limit our escalation options. When Russia brought down our Reaper drone, many people here thought we should send ATACMS to make them pay a price for that.

His reference to not sending US ground troops is a bit bizarre. No one has ever suggested that that was an option. Perhaps it was a bit of red meat for the Trump supporters.

Ron DeSantis Clarifies Comments on Ukraine War, Calls Russian Invasion WrongThe Florida governor told Piers Morgan that his earlier reference to the war as a ‘territorial dispute’ had been ‘mischaracterized’

WASHINGTON—Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a likely 2024 Republican presidential candidate, sought to qualify his recent contentious remarks that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a “territorial dispute” and not vital to U.S. interests.“Well, I think it’s been mischaracterized,” he told broadcaster Piers Morgan for an interview to be shown Thursday on the streaming service Fox Nation. Mr. Morgan included the comments in a column Wednesday evening for the New York Post.

But, Mr. DeSantis said, “the reality is what is America’s involvement in terms of escalating with more weapons, and certainly ground troops I think would be a mistake.” Mr. DeSantis said in a statement last week that the U.S. shouldn’t necessarily help defend Ukraine against Russia’s invasion and should instead focus resources on issues closer to home.

But, Mr. DeSantis said, “the reality is what is America’s involvement in terms of escalating with more weapons, and certainly ground troops I think would be a mistake.” Mr. DeSantis said in a statement last week that the U.S. shouldn’t necessarily help defend Ukraine against Russia’s invasion and should instead focus resources on issues closer to home.

Here's the rest of the article. I thought I had pasted it in, but apparently not.

It aligned him with the position of former President Donald Trump and some conservatives who have increasingly questioned the tens of billions the U.S. has provided in security assistance to Ukraine. Polling shows a steady decline in Republican support for aiding Ukraine over the past year.

“While the U.S. has many vital national interests—securing our borders, addressing the crisis of readiness within our military, achieving energy security and independence, and checking the economic, cultural, and military power of the Chinese Communist Party—becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them,” Mr. DeSantis said in the statement, which was broadcast on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” on Fox News.

The statement was in response to a questionnaire Mr. Carlson’s show sent to all major prospective GOP presidential candidates. Mr. DeSantis is the strongest challenger to Mr. Trump in hypothetical primary polls.

His comments on Mr. Carlson’s show drew considerable backlash from some Republicans, including a host of lawmakers on Capitol Hill, more-traditional conservative leaders and fellow prospective presidential candidates such as former Vice President Mike Pence.

“The war in Ukraine is not a territorial dispute,” Mr. Pence told a crowd in Iowa on Saturday to applause. “It is a Russian invasion and I believe the United States of America needs to continue to demand that the free world join us in giving the courageous fighters in Ukraine the resources that they need to repel the Russian invasion. It’s not our war, but freedom is our fight.”

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who is officially in the race, said Monday on Fox News that China would win if Russia prevailed. “This is not a territorial dispute. This is a fight for freedom and it is a fight we have to win.” She added, “This is not the time to get weak in the knees on Russia."

Fox Corp. and News Corp, the parent of Wall Street Journal publisher Dow Jones & Co., share common ownership. News Corp also owns the New York Post.

Some critics pointed out that as a congressman, Mr. DeSantis espoused a hawkish foreign policy view and had criticized the Obama administration for not providing certain military aid to Ukraine.

In the interview with Mr. Morgan, the governor, when asked about Russian President Vladimir Putin, called him hostile to the U.S.

“He’s basically a gas station with a bunch of nuclear weapons. And so for us, one of the things we could be doing better is utilizing our own energy resources in the United States,” said Mr. DeSantis, according to excerpts of the interview released by Fox Nation. He said Mr. Putin should be held accountable for alleged war crimes.

Asked about the threat of China taking action against Taiwan, Mr. DeSantis said: “I think overall, the number one issue that we face internationally is checking the growth and the rise of China. They’re much more powerful, I think, than Putin and Russia are. And they really represent the biggest threat that we’ve seen to our ability to lead since the Soviet Union.”

Mr Santis doesn't seem to have a clear mind, does he. Talk of ground troops when that's never been mooted, flip flopping from criticism of Obama for not sending more to his previous comments, and apparently not addressing RusIan interference in the US and saying China is more of a threat.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar I think he's trying to be all things to all people.
It's hardly reassuring.

Don't you just love it when a politician decides to "clarify" a previous statement and in the process creates an even bigger mess?

Just lovely ❤

Finland has announced joint aerial reconnaissance missions with Nato members.

https://twitter.com/Puolustusvoimat/status/1638832266691444736

This is great news as this will allow our surveillance assets to see much further into Russian territory.

One reason the Russians fielding T54 and T55 tanks is causing so much ridicule is because using them in combat against modern armored vehicles is suicidal. All tanks have rangefinders because to hit a target, you have to know how far away it is from you. As the shell flies through the air, gravity pulls it down. You compensate for this by raising the barrel. The amount of elevation is determined by how far away the target is. Modern tanks have laser rangefinders that work out to 10km distance. The T54/55 has an optical range finder that only works to 1km. So a Leopard can hit the T54 from five miles away and the T54 has to be less than a mile away to have a hope of hitting the Leopard.

The Russians have a significant rangefinder problem. They used to make their own laser rangefinders, then started importing them to save money. Now they can't get them. Laser rangefinders are small and expensive, so they are the first thing stolen from Russian tanks when they go into storage. As they pull tanks from storage, they have to put older, inferior optical rangefinders in them, which are less accurate and take time and manual fiddling to use. That's a disadvantage in combat. The kleptocracy strikes again.

Sinica podcast has done a really good analysis of Xi’s visit to Russia. Amongst other things they suggest that the fact the pair met for 5hours+ and Ukraine only got 1 line in the joint statement points to a lack of agreement in that sphere.

Fantastic, can't wait to listen. Love that podcast. I've been in a depressing Peter Zeihan hole today so need this!

Other good china podcasts in addition to Sinica are:

China global (bonnie glaser)
What China wants
China Insider (Hudson Institute)
China Talk

Amazing thank you!

I don’t know much about Zeihan, what’s his take?

He's controversial. He's a great speaker but certainly a doom monger so you need a strong stomach. Also very US focused. His analysis relies heavily on statistics and is often criticised for this (unreliability). He's worth listening to but not in isolation (I've made that mistake today!)

His take is focused on deglobalization and its consequences. Im waiting his response to the russia-china 'alliance'

I'm getting visions of the drunk, angry guy in the pub, whose mate is trying to talk him down.

"Don't do it, mate. He's not worth it. Look, Steve's gone to get another round in, let's go and talk to those nice birds. Come on now, mate. Just leave it."

Yes!

What do you mean by “poor education”? I would say it’s not necessarily that education is poor, quite the opposite I find that in subjects like maths, science, educational standards are much higher. What is worth considering is that any “humanities” type subject are heavily influenced by the state propaganda, history books written to match the narrative of the state. In that respect Russia is just following in the footsteps of USSR style education.

The main difference between Russian education and western education is that general knowledge is taught at a higher standard in Russia but critical thinking is not only not taught but actively discouraged from very young age, hence why the overall population is like sheep following their mad shepherd.