Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

National Services - support functions only IMO. Filling sandbags etc.

National Service works pretty well here in Finland, i expect being able to choose the civilian option instead helps weed out those who would do less well, plus the health checks weed out a whole lot too (supposedly if you really don't want to do any kind of National service you just confess to the doctor that you use cannabis regularly and you'll get an exemption)

I work in Criminal Justice and I come across so many directionless young men during the average working week. I do wonder, for at least some of them, how different their lives would be with some sort of national /citizen service.

The people I've known who did National Service in England didn't seem to have benefited greatly by it, if at all. They were just a bit older after they came out, and still didn't know what they wanted to do with the rest of their lives if they hadn't known beforehand. And if they had known what they wanted to do, they tended to resent the time wasted doing National Service instead of getting on with their training or job or career or vocation.

National service would mean that our professional army is no longer made up of people who want to be in it.

Crapita is the company used by our government, ds2 has just withdrawn his application two years after he applied. A year ago he went to a selection weekend, passed everything but the medical which he was not allowed to do as they hadn't had him do a medical test that all recruits needed to have. He did that test 3 weeks later, they confirmed they had the results (clear) and said he would be given a date to return. Then nothing despite him chasing.

They can't seem to get current applicants through the system, they haven't a hope of processing those who don't want to be there.

I agree, it's very worrisome. Some European armies have become primarily ceremonial and ornamental (looking at you, Belgium). And it really does take years to build things up again. People think it's an easy thing to cut until they need it. It's also a small fraction of what is spent on other things, so it's not really a question of affordability.

The US is not immune either. The navy needs major shipbuilding and training funding. There are isolated readiness gaps in the army, but they're not systemic.

Sometimes, cometh the hour, an extraordinary person is in the right place at the right time. Zelenskyy is clearly in this category. I had previously had him down as a joker. He's remarkable.

Aye

And the ‘Navalny’ documentary has just won an Oscar 🙂along with some words from the man himself about Putin’s war of aggression in Ukraine 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

@L1ttledrummergirl it is crap that your ds2 was motivated enough to wait 2 years only to have to walk away because the outsourced processing body could not get their act together. It is such a waste because the army needs committed people like him but somehow cannot get him through the door. Breaks my heart that Ben Wallace is crying out for more money to modernise and get a more professional British military service. Embarrassing that the US has to also call it out that the British Army is no longer a top level fighting force.

Out of the roughly 72,000 personnel in the BA no more than a third are warfighters. The rest are medics, logistics, training, finance, procurement, etc. That's not enough for two full divisions. Ammo is short, vehicles are old, etc. The only consolation is that it isn't as bad as the Bundeswehr.

@MissConductUS that is a pretty damning consolation prize.

Looks like Rishi Sunak has pledged to increase defence spending by nearly £5bn over the next two years to counter emerging threats from hostile states as part of the Arkus pact. Still falls short of the £10 bn which Ben Wallace was thought to be asking for.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-64932951

National service would mean that our professional army is no longer made up of people who want to be in it.

The professional army would still be made up of people who want to be in it, getting paid for it, National Service just ensures a large trained reserve (and at the same time increases health and fitness levels, even if only temporarily)

Support

@blueshoes

At the danger of being off the main topic..

Breaks my heart that Ben Wallace is crying out for more money to modernise and get a more professional British military service.

It's not just money - listening to/reading the opinion of many still serving in the Army one problem is that there has been a mindset, especially the very senior officers (who funnily enough tend to be of infantry/Special Forces background) that until recently the UK Army was only really going to be involved in the sort of conflict we saw in Afghanistan.

As a result a lot of the more exotic capabilities such as err, heavy armour, were allowed to decay, or contracts/projects were delayed/messed around with to save cash.

The Treasury may be partly to blame for the state of the UK Army but some of the money that has been made available has in at least one case been * away on badly supervised procurement...there's a major scandal here that rarely makes the front pages:

rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/british-armys-greek-tragedy

www.army-technology.com/news/british-armys-ajax-programme-has-gone-badly-wrong-says-pac/

Slightly off topic but I know there is a good deal of interest on this thread in the matter of US-China competition/coexistence. Really recommend the latest Sinica Podcast episode - "Jude Blanchette on the Select Committee and American Moral Panic Over China" - very unfrothy (unlike some recent commentary on China). Jude speaks about the impact of the rhetoric being used by the Select Committee, and much of the media, about China being an existential thread, particularly in relation to the risk of anti-asian race hate in the US.

Thanks Jelly, I'll listen to that right away. I think the Sinica podcast is one of the best China ones. And I'm obsessively following a few!

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key inflections in ongoing military operations on March 12:

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on March 12 that ISW’s March 11 report about her comments acknowledging Kremlin infighting is false and an “informational attack.”[50]

Iranian State Media announced on March 11 that Iran has finalized a deal to buy Sukhoi-35 fighter jets from Russia.[55]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.[56]

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut but have not completed a turning movement, envelopment, or encirclement around the city.[57] Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner Group fighters captured parts or all of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), although Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin stated that Wagner fighters do not control the settlement.[58]

Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Avdiivka and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.[59] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces entered Krasnohorivka (9km north of Aviivka), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.[60]

A Russian milblogger claimed on March 12 that there is a high desertion rate among SPETSNAZ forces.[61] The Russian milblogger claimed that no SPETSNAZ units are at their full complement and that some SPETSNAZ commanders have fled their units despite having received generous salaries for the past ten years.[62] ISW has no independent confirmation of these assertions.
It appears unlikely that most commanders have fled these elite units.

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on March 12 that Russian military personnel from eastern regions of Russia die in Ukraine at per capita rates up to fortyfold of those of Russian personnel from Moscow City.[63] The UK MoD reported that Kazakh and Tartar minorities make up 75 percent of casualties among Russian military personnel from Astrakhan Oblast.[64]

Deputy Ukrainian Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stated on March 12 that Russian officials have illegally deported 2,161 Ukrainian orphans to Russia.[65] Vereshchuk also stated that the total number of children deported to Russia may be approximately 150,000.[66]

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️State Emergency Service: 414 explosive devices detected (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/state-emergency-service-414-explosive-devices-detected-and-neutralized-over-past-day) and neutralized over past day.
Over the past day, the State Emergency Service detected and neutralized 414 explosive devices, and an area of 22 hectares was surveyed, according to a March 12 report.

⚡️Media: Switzerland to dismantle (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-switcherland-gets-rid-of-outdated-defense-missiles-that-could-still-be-useful-for-ukraine) outdated missiles instead of sending them to Ukraine.
Switzerland is getting rid of outdated Rapier surface-to-air missiles that could have been used by Ukraine to shoot down low-flying targets, Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung reported on March 11.

⚡️Police: Russia plans to organize riots to destabilize (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/moldovan-police-uncover-a-group-of-mass-riot-organizers-in-chisinau) Moldova.
Russian intelligence agencies are planning to destabilize the situation in Moldova through riots organized by Shor, a pro-Russian party, Viorel Cernauteanu, head of Moldova's National Police, said on March 10, as cited by the NewsMaker news site.

Zelensky speaks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-talks-with-new-czech-president-asks-for-more-weapons) with new Czech president, asks for more military aid.

⚡️Military spokesperson (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/military-spokesperson-532-russian-casualties-in-bakhmut-area-along-on-march-12): 532 Russian casualties in Bakhmut area on March 12.

⚡️National Resistance Center: Partisans destroy (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/national-resistance-center-partisans-destroy-railway-track-in-russian-occupied-part-of-kherson-oblast) railway track in Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast.
Members of the Atesh partisan movement blew up the railway track between the occupied settlements of Abrikosivka and Radensk in Ukraine's southern Kherson Oblast, the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center reported on March 12.

⚡️ Swiss President reiterates (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/swiss-president-reiterates-support-for-ukraine-arms-ban) support for Ukraine arms ban.
Swiss President Alain Berset reiterated his support for Switzerland’s ban on supplying Ukraine with Swiss-made weapons.
“Swiss weapons must not be used in wars,” he told NZZ am Sonntag on March 12. [if this is an accurate translation, and that would need to be confirmed - what the fuck?]

⚡️ Lukashenko visits (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/lukashenko-visits-iran-to-discuss-bilateral-relations) Iran to discuss bilateral relations.
They will reportedly discuss the countries' bilateral relations with an “emphasis on trade and economic cooperation,” including industry, agriculture, transport, and logistics.

⚡️ Saakashvili claims (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/saakashvili-claims-he-was-poisoned-says-he-is-close-to-death) he was poisoned, says he is ‘close to death.'
Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili told Sky News he was poisoned in prison, adding that he is at risk of death.

⚡️ ‘Navalny’ wins (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/navalny-wins-best-documentary-at-oscars) best documentary at Oscars.
“Navalny,” a documentary on the poisoning and detention of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, won the Oscar for best feature documentary on March 12.

⚡️General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukrainian-forces-repel-102-russian-attacks) 102 Russian attacks.

⚡️Commander: Russia's Wagner forces trying (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/commander-russias-wagner-forces-trying-to-break-into-central-bakhmut-but-suffering-significant-losses) to break into central Bakhmut, but suffering 'significant losses.'

"only" 700 dead (nearly 160,000 Russian dead now, never mind wounded) but 16 artillery systems

Some interesting reporting from Politico this morning about potential fractures emerging in the relationship between the US and Ukraine.

Reports are based apparently on discussions with 10+ officials, lawmakers and experts - there is a desire to maintain the impression of absolute unity but the US administration are worried that Ukraine is expending too much manpower and ammunition on Bakhmut. Some internal grumblings about apparent wastage when Ukraine are continuously asking for more.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Switzerland disposes of 60 Rapier defense systems and their missiles, which could be used in Ukraine, — NZZ

Russian President Vladimir Putin is going to the occupied Ukrainian Crimea for the "anniversary of reunification," — Russian Media

"Behind-the-scenes disagreements" are intensifying between Kyiv and Washington regarding the end of the war in Ukraine and its goals writes Politico with reference to officials. According to the publication's interlocutors, new "hot points of tension" have arisen between the two countries: sabotage on Nord Streams, the situation in Bakhmut, and Kyiv's desire to fight for Crimea (as @Igotjelly has said)

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said that about 10 citizens of his country are fighting on the side of Russia in Ukraine. Approximately the same number of Estonians are fighting on the side of Ukraine.

Indian authorities have decided not to violate sanctions imposed on Russia, including a cap on Russian oil at $60, — Bloomberg, citing sources
According to interlocutors of the agency, officials in the Indian government have asked banks and traders to adhere to the current restrictions.

Ukraine has already started its second sowing during the full-scale war years. The first 16,000 hectares of grain were sown, — Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal

The American B-52 nuclear bomber trained an attack on Iran today
The aircraft went on a course of combat use of cruise missiles, clearly simulating a launch, and, having completed the training plan, returned to the flight course to the location of deployment.

🇨🇳🇷🇺 President of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping, plans to visit Moscow next week
Reuters reported this with reference to sources.
The head of China plans to go to Russia to meet with Putin. The plans for the visit reportedly came after China offered to act as a mediator in "establishing peace in Ukraine”.

Last year, Ukraine became the third largest arms importer in the world (after Qatar and India) thanks to military aid from the US and European countries after the invasion of the Russian Federation, according to a study by the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Britain will significantly increase the defense budget for the next two years, – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's office
The press service of the politician said that defense spending would increase by 5 billion pounds and allow spending to rise to 2.25% of GDP by 2025 (in 2020, this figure was 2%).

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Pro-Russian forces gather to protest in Chisinau - police warn of possible unrest. The head of the National Police, Viorel Cerneucanu, said that there are Russian provocateurs among the protesters.
Russia wants to destabilize the situation in Moldova. According to him, 10 groups of 10 people were formed for the riots. In addition, a few hours ago, police received a bomb threat at Chisinau airport. No explosives were found.

The Security Service of Ukraine has finally confirmed the name of the Ukrainian soldier who was shot by Russians after saying "Glory to Ukraine!" It is a sniper of the 163rd battalion of the 119th separate brigade of the "North" military operation in Chernihiv region, Oleksandr Matsiyevsky, as previously reported by the "North" military operation.
The Hero of Ukraine Oleksandr Matsievskyi, shot by the invaders, was a citizen of Moldova

🇵🇱Poland plans to publish documents on Russia's corrupt influence on MEPs - i.pl.

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili criticized Volodymyr Zelenskyy for supporting mass protests in Tbilisi against the law on "foreign agents." He claimed interference in internal affairs.

Czech President Petr Pavel will visit Ukraine in April, his spokeswoman said after Pavel's first conversation with Zelensky.

@notimagain the decision making on the future of the British Army's Ajax vehicles sounds dysfunctional. It is crying for someone in the MOD to take charge. It is worrying that modernising the British Army cannot be solved by just throwing money at the problem (not that that is happening either).

Also really worth a listen - www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/research-event/europe-ready-face-hardships-support-ukraine

Here's the article link.

‘Little fissures’: The U.S.-Ukraine war unity is slowly cracking apart - A tough week for U.S.-Ukraine news reveals an imperfect harmony.

There are some other issues that the article goes into. One of the more worrisome to me is that Zelenski stated that Kevin McCarthy (the Republican House leader) needed to be "educated." rather than "worked with" on the topic of aid to Ukraine. That's a bit offensive, in that it implies that McCarthy is ignorant, rather than having legitimate concerns.

Bakhmut is also a puzzler. Their next defensive position a few miles to the west and reportedly gives them high ground to occupy and a clear field of view to the east, as they have at Vuldehar. The only concern I can imagine they have is that if they cede Bahkmut to the Russians, the Russians will just halt there and disengage. That would allow them to reposition forces to the south, where the spring offensive is expected to happen.

I am at a loss as to why the Armed forces will get just 5bn.

Given the scale of the threat, this just seems derisory, also the promise to go to 2.5% of GDP has no time frame and GDP here in the UK isn't really going much if at all, i do believe we inc pensions and other non combat costs (such as peace keeping) in this figure too.

On National Service, who would be looking after/training all these young men and women?
Our infantry alone is around 23k, set to fall to 18k, i don't think this has been reversed. NS could never work.

I do think that a civilian NS might work for some long term unemployed, perhaps.

I just read those articles on Ajax. The noise and vibration are injuring test crews? Yikes. Noise is not something you want in combat. It inhibits situational awareness and alerts the enemy to your presence and location.

I'm also shocked that General Dynamics is the contractor. They produce the Abrams tank and the Stryker armored vehicles the US Army uses. The British Army would be better off using the Styker or Abrams hull and drivetrain as a starting point rather than specifying something completely new. An off the shelf Stryker scout vehicle (I posted about those up thread somewhere) could fill the functional gap now, albeit without the brand new battle management networking.