Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

Sky news seem confident that the bridge taken out is a railway bridge demolition in the face of the Russian advance.

It does look like Ukraine forces are encircled and it is the right move to withdraw from Bakhmut. It was not a missile attack. The bridge does look intentionally detonated.

Michael Clarke (being interviewed) says it will take a few days to get everyone out. Prayers for the Ukraine troops that they manage to retreat to safety.

They have held on suicidally for so long. 🇺🇦

The Ministry of Funny Deaths is at it again.

Andrey Botikov, one of the creators of the Sputnik V vaccine against COVID-19, was reportedly killed in north-west Moscow, during a domestic dispute. Botikov was an employee of Moscow’s Gamaleya National Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology.

A 29-year-old guest argued with the apartment’s owner and then strangled him with a belt. [it has been claimed that he was was a gay prostitute who was hired and Botikov wanted strangulation-sex, but that doesn't sound like crap at all, does it now]

meduza.io/en/news/2023/03/03/moscow-researcher-who-helped-create-the-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine-reportedly-killed-in-domestic-dispute

Here's a good article on the degradation of Russia's best trained and equipped (I can't bring myself to say "elite") army units and the implications for the war going forward.

Putin's top troops are being 'decimated' as Russia relies too much on so-called 'elite' forces to wage war in Ukraine

Russia overinvested in these units, then deployed them for tasks that weren't within their remit, like sending airborne troops to conduct a ground assault on Kyiv or using marines to attack cities. At the same time, "normal" army units got substandard training and equipment. So they've shattered their best units by giving them tasks they aren't trained or equipped for, and what's left is mediocre at best.

This is one reason why the Russians can't mount an effective offensive.

One thought on Bahkmut. The UAF will drive south to the Sea of Azov to cut Russian supply lines to Crimea and isolate a large body of their forces. Holding onto Bahkmut for so long has kept Russian forces tied down in the east, preventing them from repositioning to protect their gains in southern Ukraine. The fact that the UAF appear to be pulling back in the east suggests to me that their offensive is not that far off.

Won't the mud mess things up, @MissConductUS ?

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut.

Russian officials continued to release limited information about the March 2 incursion in Bryansk Oblast but failed to provide clarity about what actually transpired.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not address the reported situation in Bryansk Oblast in an emergency meeting with the Russian Security Council according to the meeting’s readout.

Russian authorities continued efforts to portray Russia as the only safe operator of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), likely to constrain the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) presence at the ZNPP and compel the de facto recognition of Russian ownership of the ZNPP.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Donetsk Oblast front line as Ukrainian forces appeared to prepare for a controlled withdrawal from at least parts of Bakhmut.

The Kremlin continues efforts to increase government oversight of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB).

Russian occupation authorities continue to prepare occupied territories for the September 10 Russian regional elections.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️FT: EU countries to ramp up artillery shell delivery (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ft-eu-countries-to-ramp-up-artillery-shell-delivery-to-ukraine-under-reported-eu-compensation-program) to Ukraine under reported EU compensation program.

⚡️General Staff: Russian proxies in occupied parts of Kherson Oblast forcibly move (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russian-proxies-in-occupied-parts-of-kherson-oblast-forcibly-move-200-residents-for-filtration) 200 residents for 'filtration.'

⚡️Ukraine's Ground Forces Commander comes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-ground-forces-commander-comes-to-bakhmut) to Bakhmut.
Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, arrived in Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, on March 3 to visit the command posts in the frontline city.

⚡️Zelensky meets (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-meets-with-latvian-president-in-lviv) with Latvian President in Lviv.

⚡️Nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers surrender via 'I want to live' (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nearly-10-000-russian-soldiers-surrender-via-i-want-to-live-hotline-since-its-creation) hotline since its creation.
Nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers have willingly surrendered themselves to the Ukrainian army via the "I want to live" hotline, Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reported.
Launched in September 2022 by Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence, the 24-hour hotline allows Russians to willingly surrender themselves or their units to the Ukrainian army. Russian military personnel are held in compliance with the Geneva Conventions.

⚡️Police and aid workers come under fire (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/police-and-aid-workers-come-under-fire-in-kherson-oblast) in Kherson Oblast.

⚡️US announces (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-announces-400-million-in-additional-military-aid-to-ukraine) $400 million in additional military aid to Ukraine.
The military assistance package includes more ammunition for U.S.-provided HIMARS and howitzers, as well as ammunition for Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and Armored Vehicle Launched Bridges, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said in a statement.

⚡️Scholz meets (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/scholz-meets-with-biden-in-washington-dc-to-discuss-ukraine) with Biden in Washington DC to discuss Ukraine.

⚡️Kharkiv Oblast administration orders partial mandatory evacuation (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/kharkiv-oblast-administration-orders-partial-mandatory-evacuation-of-kupiansk) of Kupiansk.
On March 2, the military administration of Kharkiv Oblast ordered a partial mandatory evacuation for families with children and residents with physical disabilities in Kupiansk due to constant shelling by Russian troops.

⚡️AP: Serbia denies sending military aid (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ap-serbia-denies-sending-military-aid-to-ukraine) to Ukraine.

How repurposed Russian air defense missiles expose holes in Ukraine’s sky (kyivindependent.com/national/why-promised-western-air-defense-wont-close-all-holes-in-ukraines-sky)
Both the West and Ukraine have highlighted the shortage of high-precision missiles faced by Russia for months. In late November, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov proclaimed that Moscow had used most of its high-precision arsenal.
However, Russia’s much larger stocks of less accurate air defense missiles, which it has been using to attack Ukrainian cities, may pose a much greater threat to Ukraine.

⚡️FT: Ukraine appeals to EU to provide 250,000 artillery shells (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ft-ukraine-appeals-to-eu-for-250-000-artillery-shells-per-month) per month

⚡️European Parliament President (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/european-parliament-president-roberta-metsola-arrives-in-ukraine) Roberta Metsola arrives in Ukraine.

⚡️Der Spiegel: German arms manufacturer in talks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/der-spiegel-german-arms-manufacturer-in-talks-about-building-tank-factory-in-ukraine) about building tank plant in Ukraine.
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall is in talks with Ukrainian officials about building a tank plant in Ukraine, German magazine Der Spiegel reported on March 4. Estimated to cost around 200 million euros, the plant could produce up to 400 Panther main battle tanks per year.

⚡️NATO commander in Europe: Russia's losses (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nato-commander-in-europe-russias-losses-in-ukraine-amount-to-over-200-000-troops) in Ukraine amount to over 200,000 troops.
NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, U.S. Army General Christopher Cavoli, said that Russia has lost more than 200,000 troops since the start of its invasion in Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, describing the extent of the war as "unbelievable."
He added that over 1,800 Russian officers were killed or wounded, German magazine Der Spiegel reported.

I have read that there is less mud in southern Ukraine than in the east, but there will still surely be some. And the tracked vehicles (tanks and IFV's) are better able to handle the mud than wheeled vehicles, which will have to stay on the roads.

A lot will depend on the weather.

Live UKraine: Telegram

Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Lviv. He visited the wounded soldiers in the hospital and, together with Latvian President Egils Levits, honored the memory of the fallen soldiers at Lychakiv Cemetery.

🇺🇸🇺🇦 The New York Times reports that a "cabinet" exercise involving American generals and Ukrainian commanders took place at a US military base in Germany. This is part of Ukraine's preparations for a future counteroffensive.

The "black box" of the helicopter that killed the Interior Ministry leadership in Brovary has been decrypted in France

Prygozhyn was caught lying about the alleged "encirclement" of the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk region by militants.
Judging by the footage, the Wagner chief is in the village of Paraskoviivka, which the enemy announced was captured on February 20.

🩸The first long-term blood storage bank in Ukraine was officially opened in Kyiv, which will allow storing blood for up to 30 years. In addition, operational logistics will be possible in the most difficult conditions, for example, to combat areas to rescue injured soldiers and civilians. [that's a thought. I imagine there is a huge need for donated blood in Ukr]

The Biden administration announced a new $400 million military aid package for Ukraine, including:
- ammunition for HIMARS;
- 155-mm artillery shells;
- 105-mm artillery shells;
- 25-mm ammunition;
- armored bridge paving machines;
- demolition equipment.

The Russian invaders and collaborators, who failed to capture Zaporizhzhia region but declared occupation, decided that the center of the region would be the temporarily occupied Melitopol

The Chinese authorities were angry with Russia because information about the arms deal was made public. They wanted any support to remain secret, The Economist writes, citing its own sources.

Romanian is spoken in Moldova, and no country has the moral, legal, and political right to comment on this, Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu said.

Over 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have trained in the UK as part of the UK-led military training programme

In Zaporizhzhia, the death toll from a rocket attack on a residential building has risen to 10, including one child. The rubble is being cleared. Rescuers managed to save 11 people, two cats and a dog.

Unidentified drone attacks oil pipeline in Belgorod region

Agreement to establish an International Center for the Prosecution of Crimes of Russian Aggression to be signed in Lviv - European Commission website.

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia sent three humanitarian aid planes to Ukraine as part of a $100 million program.
The aid includes 135 generators, warm blankets, and hygiene products.

I suppose the Ukrainians are more used to it than the Russians. that was their problem in the first place wasn't it, invading in the muddy season so all the tanks had to go by road, leading to easy-to-target concentrations.

Apparently early on some flood gates were opened to flood vast areas, which also increased the muddiness and intraversability.

Leopards are good in Mud. They have Tiger Feet.....

UNITED24Media Telegram

🇩🇪 The head of the defense committee of the Bundestag Strack-Zimmermann called Merkel responsible for the war in Ukraine due to the blocking of its accession to NATO
She reminded that in 2008 there were many supporters of Ukraine's as soon as possible acceptance into NATO, but Germany and France opposed it because of Russia's position.

⚡️The upper house of the German parliament, the Bundesrat, adopted a resolution supporting Ukraine, – an agreed document.... The Bundesrat supports increasing aid to Ukraine and its membership in the EU.

Ukraine will receive grant aid from Japan under the "Ukraine Rapid Recovery Plan" program for about $170 million

⚡️Poland announced new procedures for the transit of Ukrainian grain through the country, – the Vice Prime Minister of Poland said
They are designed to simplify transportation across the border but, at the same time, prevent possible violations. [Given that Russia is holding up Black Sea grain transports this is a good thing]

The audience laughed at Lavrov during his speech in India when he said that "Russia did not start the war but wants to end it."

The EU will provide Ukraine with 5,700 solar panels, — President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen

According to Reuters, the gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, which cost 17 billion euros, will turn into a pile of scrap metal for a long time. Gazprom announced that it is technically possible to repair the damaged pipelines. However, two sources at the agency said there are no plans to repair and restart: Moscow sees no prospect of improving relations with the West, so they will need the pipes to pump gas again.

Ukraine is strengthening the protection of energy facilities, – Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal

China is not supplying Russia with weapons, but discussions are ongoing, said White House National Security Council Communications Director John Kirby in an interview with Tagesspiegel

The Executive Committee of the International Gymnastics Federation (FIG) has extended sanctions against the Russian and Belarusian gymnastics federations until further notice

Withdrawal of troops from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in exchange for Crimea: Putin tries to bargain to end the war as soon as possible, — British Intelligence
The latest report says that Putin has taken extreme measures to end the war as soon as possible because the sanctions-hit Russian economy needs the sanctions lifted. He hopes to seize Donbas by military means. [actual source not given]

Ukraine will produce high-precision Vilha-M missiles, — Ivan Vinnyk, First Deputy Chairman of the National Association of the Defense-Industrial Complex of Ukraine
Vinnyk said that the manufacturers are planning to finalize "Vilkha-M" to increase the radius of action to 150 km. He did not specify when the missiles might be ready and their potential quantity in production.
"Let's put it this way, and we hope that just in time for a counteroffensive, the probability of which is expected in the south, in the direction of the Sea of Azov. The tests will take place on the battlefield," Vinnyk said.

Russia appears to be successfully circumventing sanctions and exporting technology needed for war against Ukraine, – Bloomberg
Thanks to exports from China, the UAE, Türkiye, and Kazakhstan, Moscow obtains microcircuits and integrated circuits from the European production.

.. and Lions at the controls

Washington Post Telegram

Pregnant Russians are streaming into Argentina. Officials are suspicious. (www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/02/argentina-russia-women-pregnant/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)
For Russians, an Argentine passport is something of a golden ticket, granting visa-free access to more than 170 countries.

Here is the latest from Ukraine:

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/03/russia-ukraine-war-news/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- President Biden told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that his country’s support for Ukraine has been “profound” at the outset of a meeting Friday in the Oval Office of the White House.

• Wagner Group boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin said that “the pincers are closing” on Bakhmut, in a video posted Friday on Telegram in which he claimed to be speaking from a rooftop in the city.

• The United States announced an additional $400 million in military aid for Ukraine on Friday.

• A Russian anti-Putin group fighting on Ukraine’s side claimed responsibility for an attack in Russia’s western Bryansk region, which Russian officials said killed two people.

• Kicking Russia out of the Group of 20 nations would be a mistake, Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said Friday as a high-level meeting of G-20 foreign ministers drew to a close in New Delhi.

— Law enforcement officials from the United States, the European Union, Britain and other jurisdictions met Friday in Lviv, including U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland, who traveled to the Ukrainian city unannounced.

— In Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces appeared to be still in control of some parts of the city, despite claims by pro-Kremlin forces that they had encircled the town, The Washington Post reported.

— The United States signed an agreement designed to expand information-sharing regarding alleged Russian war crimes, involving Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia and Romania, Garland said.

Alleged ‘terrorist’ attack in West Russia fuels hard-line pressure on Putin
More than 24 hours after a strange incursion near the Russian-Ukrainian border that President Vladimir Putin labeled a “terrorist attack,” there was no new clarity about the incident,
Pro-war Russian hard-liners demanded revenge and a tougher approach, with mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group and a trenchant critic of Russia’s military, saying Russia’s “red line” — that it would not tolerate attacks on its own territory — had again been crossed.

Reported in The Telegraph today:

12:05PM
Chechnya leader 'fears he has been poisoned by Kremlin'
Chechnya's leader Ramzan Kadyrov is ‘seriously ill’ with kidney problems amid fears of poisoning.
Mr Kadyrov is a close ally of Vladimir Putin and has repeatedly criticised the running of the war in Ukraine.
The leader has brought in a specialist from the United Arab Emirates because he does not trust medics from Moscow.
Mr Putin has allegedly met with Mr Kadyroz’s son, Akhmat, in what appears to be the beginning of finding his successor.
Leonid Nevzlin, an exiled Russian oligarch, echoed fears he has been poisoned, according to Germany’s Bild news agency.
“Kadyrov clearly does not trust Russian doctors. There are reasons," he said.
“My sources say that [problems with] kidneys are a symptom of poisoning and that's what Kadyrov is afraid of.”

Over 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have trained in the UK as part of the UK-led military training programme

Which other countries are in the UK led programme to train?

I'm currently in EU and its the Germany Poland/EU initiative that is all i hear about, 15000 troops to start with plus Leopard training.

I think considering its size, Poland once again has done brilliantly, then again most to lose too from Russian success.

Which other countries are in the UK led programme to train?

I don't think we're involved in the UK based training, but the US Army is training Ukrainian troops in Germany and here in the US.

Yes once again the USA stands by Europe.

I was just curious to read "UK led" because as far as i can tell, UK out of EU is out of pretty much anything with an EU tag on it, so i wondered if it was a Commonwealth thing?

I was just curious to read "UK led" because as far as i can tell, UK out of EU is out of pretty much anything with an EU tag on it, so i wondered if it was a Commonwealth thing?

It's a Nato thing. All of the training is being coordinated through NAto

Worth listening to the Economist’s “Next Year in Moscow” podcast - 7 part series (2 parts out so far) on the view from Russians who oppose the war.

For example they speak to a Russian woman in Istanbul. She fled just after the start of the war, fearing her husband would be called to fight and worrying about the impact of propaganda on her 10 year old daughter. She opened a bookstore that stocks Ukrainian literature with the purpose being to open a space for dialogue between Russians in excite and Ukrainians. Any proceeds she donates to humanitarian causes within Ukraine.

A truly different perspective. There are good Russians out there, no matter how few.

A truly different perspective. There are good Russians out there, no matter how few.

That podcast is really well done, and I recommend it too.

I have a colleague who was born in Russia and is now an American citizen. She also has friends and family in Ukraine, which is not at all uncommon. She feels terrible about the war, so I don't really discuss it with her much. She just went back to Russia to deal with a family emergency and I was very concerned that her American citizenship would cause her problems getting out. She left Russia after graduating uni, so her accent is perfect and she traveled on her Russian passport, so didn't have any problems.

There is a large Russian community in New York.

Woah! That's quite some news about Kadyrov.

His health issues could be entirely unrelated to the Kremlin, of course. But as Ducks says, the Ministry of Funny Deaths is pretty busy...

There is a shocking pic of him kicking about looking very unwell and even more grotesque than usual.

World's smallest violin from me.

A warning shot to Prigozhin perhaps.