Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

Thanks, haven't seen the video myself but I bet some of the intelligence people (and no doubt some of the spotters) will be looking hard a any images for things like tail numbers or other features to establish airframe identity...

I'm also skeptical that it's the same aircraft. If it was near an explosion, it should be thoroughly inspected before flying again.

It wasn't from one of the twitter guys whom is known to be a thorough checker, admittedly

🔥A Russian Il-76 military plane exploded in Ulyanovsk

Such a wonderful event happened right at the factory during some tests. It is known that there are 6 victims, one person died.

Channel 24

It looks like the UAF will conduct an orderly withdrawal from Bahkmut before the increasing muddy conditions make it impossible to get their vehicles out.

Battle for Bakhmut Is About to Become More Difficult: U.K.

I think it's overdue, to be honest. They've accomplished the goal of attriting and tieing down the Russian forces in the area. It's not a strategic location and after the Russians move in they can hit their force concentrations with indirect fire.

Are there many civilians still in Bakhmut? Or have most of those who want to leave been evacuated?

Yes still around 4500 civilians there. Many of whom simply can’t leave.

I expect they'll make a concerted effort to evacuate as many as possible before withdrawing.

I heard that same figure of 4500 some time ago. It may well be fewer now.

CNN were quoting 4500 just yesterday. I think at this stage unfortunately those that are left have either been too elderly and frail or ill to leave. I agree I would imagine they’ll try to get as many out as they can but some will undoubtedly be left behind.

As Don Nichols said yesterday, at this point the Russians are literally laying waste to Backhmut and putting a flag on the ruins.

Shucks. The explosion which damaged the bridge was such a masterstroke.

It was such a moral boost here @blueshoes , it must have been so much more powerful for Ukrainians.

Let's hope the Russians are careful with their cigarettes once the bridge is fully repaired 😉

Quite 😁

I always felt like the bridge was one of the key moments when the West and Ukraine could see Putin’s threats and red lines for what they are, bullshit.

It's been said by some that a proportion of the remaining civilians in Bakhmut are wanting the Russians to take it over.

The fact remains that many in Ukraine do look to Russia, and the many years' propaganda has had an effect.

I sincerely hope that once the Russians soldiers are in, they don't take the many months' frustrations out on the civilians.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-2-2023

Key Takeaways

The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a border incursion in Bryansk Oblast, Russia, on March 2 — a claim that Ukrainian officials denied.

The alleged Bryansk incident generated speculations from Russian officials and ultranationalist groups about the Kremlin's response to the situation.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated on March 2 that Germany is negotiating with allies about providing security guarantees to Ukraine but provided no further details on these proposed guarantees.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken briefly spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the G20 summit in New Delhi, India on March 2 about Russia’s suspension of the New Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). The Kremlin very probably is weaponizing New START and fears of nuclear escalation in hopes of deterring Western support for Ukraine.

Russian authorities appear to be concerned over a growing loss of leverage in Serbia, which Russia has worked to integrate into the Russian sphere of influence for many years.

Russian ultranationalists continue to debate the appropriateness of criticism of Russian war efforts and to react to proposed increased punishments for “discrediting” the war in Ukraine.

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and offensive operations around Kreminna.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, along the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces appear to have temporarily scaled back efforts to encircle Bakhmut from the southwest as well as from the northeast and may instead be focusing on pressuring Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the city by concentrating on the northeastern offensive.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces downed two Ukrainian UAVs in Crimea.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the Wagner Group has launched recruiting efforts through Russian sports clubs.

Russian occupation officials denied reports of the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russian territories.

[It seems amazing that Russia isn't actually field testing these things they're trying to sell. You'd hope the potential buyers would be asking a few questions!]

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Ukraine dismisses (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-dismisses-russian-claims-of-clashes-with-ukrainian-saboteurs-as-provocation) Russian claims of clashes with Ukrainian 'saboteurs' as provocation.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukraine's Presidential Office, called Russia's claims of alleged clashes with a group of Ukrainian "saboteurs" a provocation.

Explainer: China’s increasing role in Russia’s war against Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/national/explainer-chinas-increasing-role-in-russias-war-in-ukraine)

⚡️Russia hits humanitarian point (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-hits-humanitarian-point-in-kherson-oblast-injuring-9) in Kherson Oblast, injuring 9.
"During the unloading of humanitarian aid, the Russian occupiers launched a drone. It dropped explosives on civilians who came there to get vegetables," the administration added.

⚡️Moldovan parliament approves (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/moldovan-parliament-approves-declaration-condemning-russian-aggression-in-ukraine) declaration condemning Russian aggression against Ukraine.
[things are hotting up in Moldova]

⚡️Poltava Mayor receives (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/poltava-mayor-receives-5-year-suspended-sentence) 5-year suspended sentence.
The High Anti-Corruption Court of Ukraine sentenced Poltava Mayor Oleksandr Mamai to a five-year suspended sentence and a fine of Hr 2 million ($50,000) that will be transferred to the Armed Forces.

⚡️Zelensky appoints (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-appoints-new-head-of-kherson) new head of Kherson.
President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on March 2 appointing former military prosecutor Roman Mrochko as head of the Kherson City Military Administration.

⚡️IAEA's expert team conducts rotation (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/iaea-expert-team-rotation-occurs-after-3-week-delay) at occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant after 3-week delay.

⚡️Governor: 5,000 people, including 37 children (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governor-5-000-people-including-37-children-remain-in-bakhmut), remain in Bakhmut.
Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said that around 5,000 people, among them 37 children, still remain in Bakhmut. Most of the remaining residents refuse to leave their homes.

⚡️CNN: USAID announces (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-usaid-announces-new-aid-for-ukraines-agriculture-sector) new aid for Ukraine's agriculture sector.

USAID has established three new partnerships to invest $44 million for storage and infrastructure expansion in Ukraine's agricultural system.

⚡️Guardian: (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/guardian-russian-torture-chambers-in-kherson-oblast-not-random-but-rather-part-of-a-carefully-thought-out-plan) Russian torture chambers in Kherson Oblast 'not random but rather part of a carefully thought-out plan.

⚡️ White House: US to announce (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/white-house-us-to-announce-new-military-assistance-package-for-ukraine) new military assistance package for Ukraine.
“It will include mostly ammunitions and munitions that the Ukrainians will need for the systems that they already have, like the HIMARS and the artillery,” Kirby told reporters on March 2.

Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian military admits withdrawal from Bakhmut on the table, but only if 'absolutely necessary' (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-ukrainian-military-admits-withdrawal-from-bakhmut-on-the-table-but-only-if-absolutely-necessary)

[figures not released yet]

Reports that the Russian's have blown up a bridge between Bakhmut and Khromove overnight - this bridge is considered vital for withdrawing both civilians and military personnel from Bakhmut as well a route for bringing in ammunition and reinforcements. - reported by CNN this morning.

Getting hot again. over 700 troops, 1 plane, 1 helicopter and a higher number of hardware.

shit, that's not good news.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Due to the so-called "Ukrainian subversive group" in Bryansk region, Putin changed his mind about going to the North Caucasus - to Stavropol region - where he was to hold an event to open the Year of the Teacher, Russian dictator's spokesman Peskov said. [there again seeing as it's Peskov said it, there was probably a good chance Putin never had the faintest idea of going to Stavropol in the first place]

Scholz announced the delivery of additional Gepard and IRIS-T systems to Ukraine

🍔McDonald's plans to resume operations in Odesa in late March and in Dnipro in late April.

Russia's massive missile attacks may be a thing of the past, said Natalia Gumenyuk, head of the press center of the "South" command.

The G20 foreign ministers at a meeting in India failed to agree on a final declaration due to disagreements over Russia's war against Ukraine. The foreign ministers of Russia and China disagreed on two points - to condemn Russia's invasion and to withdraw its troops.

In Zaporizhzhia, 10 people (6 women, 3 men and 1 child) went missing as a result of a rocket attack on a high-rise building. Two people died (1 woman and another person whose gender is being established). 8 people were injured (4 men and 4 women).

The Moldovan language no longer exists
The Moldovan parliament passed a law in the first reading, according to which the official language of the country is now called "Romanian".
However, the Moldovan language will still remain in the legal acts of unrecognized Transnistria. [Anyone know what's going on here? YOu'd assume that Moldovans would speak Moldovan. There's clearly a lot of history behind this decision]

Blinken explained what he discussed during a brief meeting with Lavrov.
During a brief meeting with Russian Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the G20, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken discussed nuclear nonproliferation, the release of former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, who was illegally detained in Moscow, and called on Russia to immediately end the war in Ukraine

The Hungarian parliament has again postponed a vote on ratifying Sweden and Finland's NATO membership application. The next attempt to make a decision will be in two weeks.

Ukraine has fulfilled two-thirds of the Association Agreement with the EU, - Ukrainian Prime Minister.

Video of extensive damage at the Rosneft oil depot in Tuapse, Russia. After the drone attack yesterday, Russian media said the damage was minor at "a boiler room". [the video shows quite a bit more damage than that]

The Russian pilot who bombed the Kharkiv TV tower was sentenced to 12 years in prison.
In March last year, this deputy commander of the 6th Army of the Russian Air Force dropped eight FAB-500 bombs in the area of the TV tower. He was eventually shot down and detained. [nice to see one of the very, very many war criminals getting a bit of justice]

Ukraine expects to receive two or three types of Western fighter jets, one will be the main one, - Ukrainian Defense Minister tells Die Bild.

In the Danish capital, unknown persons desecrated a monument to Hans Christian Andersen's Little Mermaid by painting the Russian tricolor on the stone. Copenhagen police are looking for the vandals

The G20 foreign ministers at a meeting in India failed to agree on a final declaration due to disagreements over Russia's war against Ukraine. The foreign ministers of Russia and China disagreed on two points - to condemn Russia's invasion and to withdraw its troops. - Whilst this is disappointing its not entirely unexpected and in fact failure to agree a joint communique following a big international summit actually isn't that rare - during the Brexit negotiations for example there was an awful lot of wrangling to get any sort of bland communique issued.

Russia's massive missile attacks may be a thing of the past, said Natalia Gumenyuk, head of the press center of the "South" command. Bloody well hope this is true, though I worry slightly what might replace it.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

❗️Ukraine will change the strategy of Crimea deoccupation, – Danilov
"The strategy of Crimea deoccupation will have a new edition. The order of de-occupation means – political, diplomatic, military, economic, and others – needs a priority change,” said NSDC Secretary.

❗️ Annual inflation down to 8.6% in the euro area, – Eurostat

France is considering the possibility of transferring Mirage fighters to Ukraine, – the head of the Ministry of Defense, Sébastien Lecornu
According to him, Ukrainian pilots can undergo training in Poland. The fate of 12 Mirage fighters, decommissioned and transferred to storage in the summer of 2022, is still being discussed.
The French air fleet now has 195 fighters (96 Rafale and 99 Mirage 2000 series 5, C, and D). The French Navy has another 40 aircraft. The country is currently decommissioning the Mirage and replacing them with Rafale aircraft. @notimagain

Aliexpress has blocked the sale of DJI and Autel drones to Russia, – Russian media
Buyers from the Russian Federation cannot find and order drones on the virtual trading platform. Owners of previously purchased copters face functional limitations.

The State Duma of the Russian Federation called to declare war on Ukraine
Viktor Sobolev, a State Duma defense committee member, said that Russia "definitely" needs to end the "Special Military Operation" and start a real war. [and then what? they'll send an army?]

Russia is stirring up tension around Moldova and unrecognized Transnistria to divert attention from the war in Ukraine and demonstrate at least some "victory" of the Russian people, – Main Intelligence Directorate

Lavrov missed Geneva conference due to sanctions, – Spiegel
The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry could not get to Switzerland due to the EU ban on his plane.
Lavrov spoke online, but ambassadors and other diplomats left the hall in a show of support for Ukraine [from the video, a considerable majority of diplomats left]

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had a telephone conversation with the President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Ukraine uses mobile DNA laboratories, which makes it possible to make a breakthrough in "science at war." Labs allow to examine the DNA samples and identify victims of Russian aggression in minutes, — The Independent
Thus, the time required to identify the dead is reduced from a possible few years to a few hours.
Western donors, including the French government and the Warren Buffett Foundation, provided the laboratories. They move around the country in police vans, allowing teams to process evidence in real time. The authorities note that the laboratories will significantly reduce the time it takes to identify the dead, as well as speed up the process of gathering evidence of Russian war crimes.

💍 Valentine's Day caused a sharp increase in demand for rough diamonds from Russia, — Politico reported, citing data from the Belgian Ministry of Economy
Despite repeated appeals by Ukraine and some EU countries, the bloc has not yet imposed sanctions on importing Russian diamonds.

In Ukraine, the self-produced air defense system "Vilkha-M" is used; the guided missiles have a more extended flight range than HIMARS, the first deputy head of the Vynnyk Association of Air Defense Forces said.
"Vilkha-M" has a firing range of 110 km and a warhead weighing 220 kg, which can accurately hit targets.

We have not yet decided whether we will provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, — Prime Minister of South Korea Han Duck-soo in an interview with CNN

Losses of the Russians under Bakhmut 1 to 7 in our favor, — Danilov
It's complicated and difficult there, but keep in mind that every day our defenders and defenders send them by the hundreds to where they need to go — given that they broke in here to kill us," said the secretary of the NSDC on the telethon.

Ukraine has sent over 100 tons of humanitarian aid to Türkiye for families affected by the recent earthquakes, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.

Zaporizhzhia, March 2.

Ukraine took 37th place out of 121 countries in the "soft power" Brand Finance rating.

Kateryna Melnyk spent 5 hours under the rubble in Zaporizhzhia, hugging her cat
After a Russian missile hit, her house was destroyed entirely. Kateryna says she has three cats – she saved one and is still looking for the other two.

Washingtn Post Telegram

Anti-Putin group claims attack on Russian territory

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/02/russia-ukraine-war-news/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)The Russian Volunteer Corps, a group of anti-Kremlin fighters, claimed responsibility for an attack on their country on Thursday. The claim comes after Russia’s federal police force said that “armed Ukrainian nationalists” had entered Bryansk after unconfirmed reports suggested that Russian civilians were being held hostage while others were shot. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, called the Russian report a “classic deliberate provocation.”

The Russian Volunteer Corps called itself a “liberation army that came to its own land” and urged Russians to “take up arms and fight Putin’s bloody regime” in a video posted to social media. It also said that the Russian claim that Ukrainians entered Bryansk was “a lie of the Kremlin propagandists.”

• A document summarizing the G-20 meeting said: “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy.”

• Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s encounter lasted less than 10 minutes, during which Blinken urged Russia to reverse its decision to suspend cooperation in the New START nuclear arms accord

• President Biden will welcome German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Washington for a working visit Friday. The two leaders may discuss China’s potential to supply lethal aid to Russian forces in Ukraine.

• In New Delhi, where the foreign ministers of the Group of 20 nations gathered this week, European Union Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said Friday that kicking Russia out of the club would be a mistake.

• The Russian Volunteer Corps, an anti-Putin group fighting on Ukraine’s side, claimed responsibility for an attack in the Bryansk region (www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/02/bryansk-russia-attack-ukraine-saboteurs/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main) that Russian officials said had left two people dead.

• Pro-Russia forces have made gains in the areas near Bakhmut, the eastern Ukrainian town at the center of heavy fighting in recent weeks, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

They discussed the "Russian Volunteer Corps" claims on yesterday's Ukraine the Latest discussion. Dom Nicholls said he suspected it was a lot of nonsense. He pointed out that the people in the pics claiming to be them were wearing yellow tape on their uniforms, identifying themselves as fighting for Ukraine. His point being that if you're trying to carry out under cover ops within Russian territory it makes no sense to identify yourself as the "enemy". It would make more sense for them to wear the Russian red tape.

He also pointed out that in the pictures they were wearing their protective gear incorrectly (i.e. their groin protection up on their stomach) and wearing ear defenders pretending they were radio headphones. So hardly giving off the impression of genuine soldiers.

Russian politician to face court after watching Putin speech with noodles on his ears (sorry what??)
Mikhail Abdalkin will appear in court next week to face accusations that he discredited the Russian armed forces by posting a video of himself with spaghetti draped over his ears.
Abdalkin, a Communist party lawmaker in the Samara regional parliament, was watching Vladimir Putin give his State of the Nation speech at the time.
He said on social media yesterday that the Novokuybyshev city court would hear his case on 7 March. His party had already previously reprimanded him.