Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

983 replies

MagicFox · 22/02/2023 15:03

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
145
Zuffe · 28/02/2023 20:39

notimagain · 28/02/2023 18:52

No signs of the fog of war obscuring this story lifting quite yet…

www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/first-image-of-russian-a-50-radar-jet-after-claimed-attack-in-belarus

The source is normally pretty reliable for things techie, though obviously limited to open source info.

According to data, that airport was shrouded in fog this morning until sometime shortly after 08:00 when the rising sun would have started to dissipate the fog. Then it stayed clear until around 17:00 and will remain foggy tomorrow and for the next few days. Fair enough there was a window of 7-8 hours today with no fog, no cloud and clear overhead. The shadow cast by the plane is perpendicular to the runway which broadly runs SSE from the left to the right in the image. By my reckoning, that means a shadow would be cast up the runway at about 11:00, perhaps 10:30 at the earliest. The question that leaves me is how soon could this image be taken and made available even on open source to a commercial publisher? If it can be obtained in real time and the publisher has that sort of licence, then OK. Otherwise is this really an image taken this morning just before 11:20?

MissConductUS · 28/02/2023 20:48

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/02/2023 19:20

Yes, thanks very much.

I'm so glad I can be helpful. My understanding of these things is very rarely useful in everyday life. 😁

PerkingFaintly · 28/02/2023 21:06

Ahh, thank you so much for explaining all that, MissConductUs. Fascinating stuff.

Mb76 · 28/02/2023 21:07

Lots of updates to catch up on, thanks everyone

I am surprised that Uber only just left Russia. In my old job (pre Covid) I traveled a lot and Uber was the taxi of choice for the ease of use globally. It became increasingly difficult to book with Uber by 2018 in Russia, mostly because they had their own taxi chain by then which was much more popular. I never managed to sign up with them as I couldn’t get them to accept my uk work mobile phone number.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar i completely understand about being mindful of your mental health in terms of what you watch, I do not have a skin thick enough for a lot of things on Twitter for example so I don’t do twitter.
Ah it must have been really sad to say good bye to your Ukrainian family. Will you stay in touch?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/02/2023 22:47

Oh yes =) Im not always that good at keeping in contact but with our friends, definitely. We have a standing invitation to go and visit and I really hope that one day we can spend Christmas with them.

notimagain · 28/02/2023 23:04

Zuffe · 28/02/2023 20:39

According to data, that airport was shrouded in fog this morning until sometime shortly after 08:00 when the rising sun would have started to dissipate the fog. Then it stayed clear until around 17:00 and will remain foggy tomorrow and for the next few days. Fair enough there was a window of 7-8 hours today with no fog, no cloud and clear overhead. The shadow cast by the plane is perpendicular to the runway which broadly runs SSE from the left to the right in the image. By my reckoning, that means a shadow would be cast up the runway at about 11:00, perhaps 10:30 at the earliest. The question that leaves me is how soon could this image be taken and made available even on open source to a commercial publisher? If it can be obtained in real time and the publisher has that sort of licence, then OK. Otherwise is this really an image taken this morning just before 11:20?

Given time of night a quick response:

Firstly with regard to the comments about fog clearing or not I'd need to see the Metars (the actual weather observed at the airport) for the 28th, I'm not sure if they are in the public domain, I'll check in the AM.

Secondly, yes you are right the runway runs roughly 150/330 (magnetic) and looking the shadows on the images with reference to that datum it looks to me as if the sun was probably on about the right azimuth to tie in with your timing of the images being taken late morning Belarus local time, 1120 LT is credible which if I have my sums right means that would be 0820 UTC/GMT...

Commercial imaging companies such as Maxar reckon that (depending on product) they can get images (FWIW down to 30cm resolution) to paying customers as quickly as 30 minutes from the image being acquired.

I understand the scepticism but it still looks possible to me, given the above, that any images taken could have been available by mid to late AM UK time/ early AM US time (where I believe "the drive" is based)..I first saw the story pop up on one of my feeds around teatime UK time so I think the timing might be credible, regardless of which side of the Atlantic the report was filed...

Whether they really have the image resolution to support all of their analysis is of course another matter.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 01/03/2023 01:08

Day 369, February 27th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin broadcast
Posted on 28 February 2023

⚡️Belarus: Belarusian Partisans blew up a very expensive Russian aircraft at the Machulyschi airbase. They damaged with drones a plane which costs $350 million Russia has 10 of these planes, only 6 of which are believed to be in operational condition. It acts as an airborne command post and can also discover locations of Ukrainian AA defenses during missile attacks. This platform is crucial during large-scale missile strikes. Ukraine does not and will not strike Belarusian territory so as not to kill a single Belarusian because future relations between the two countries are very important. Lukashenko has also managed to keep Belarus out of the war despite all rhetoric and so there is no need to provoke Belarus. There has not been a single missile strike on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus in the last few months. Some Shaheed strikes were alleged to have been launched from Belarus but these actually originated in Russian territory.

⚡️ Overall frontline situation: Bakhmut remains the most intense section of the front. Russian assaults in the Kremina/Kupyiansk area failed. Russian attacks near Vuhledar were also repulsed. Artillery duels continue in Kherson. Over the last couple of days, there was also a series of unsuccessful Russian attacks in Mariinka and Avdiivka.

⚡️ Bakhmut: The situation has deteriorated north of the city and the Russians have advanced. There are dozens of attacks every day. However, the AFU continues to perform counterattacks and the situation is prone to change. The situation is very difficult but under control. The supply and rotation of Ukrainian Units continue as does intense street fighting. Even if Bakhmut was abandoned, this would not be the end of the world as it would simply mean that Ukrainian forces chose to retreat to more defensible positions. This does not have long-term implications, as the AFU also retreated from Izyum and Kherson after defending them, and who do those cities belong to now? The main objective of defending is to exhaust the enemy and drain his offensive capabilities. An adversary that retains offensive capabilities cannot be attacked, and Ukraine cannot launch its offensive while Russia is still able to attack. Bakhmut and Soledar are doing just that, exhausting Russian offensive capability. The ratio of losses there is roughly 1:7 in Ukraine’s favor. The Russians do not have enough artillery and tanks, and shells for these platforms.

⚡️ State of the Russian army: Russian losses increased significantly in October when they switched from vehicle-centered operations to manpower-centered as a result of vehicle losses. In order to advance in Bakhmut, the Russian army has had to reduce operations along the rest of the front. The ‘world’s second army’ can barely sustain offensive operations on a 40km sector of a nearly 1500km front with massive casualties. Even if the Russians manage to take Bakhmut, they will face the exact same situation again and again, in Chasiv Yar and beyond. Do they think that Ukraine and the west will sit idly by while they slowly advance? Where is the much-discussed upcoming Russian offensive? It was a myth inflated by Russian propaganda.

⚡️ Russian force structure: Currently 1/4 to 1/2 of all Russian Forces at the front are composed of mobilised light infantry with no heavy weapons and only sometimes motorized in trucks, along with minimal infantry equipment. Another 1/3 is composed of Russian army units replenished with mobilized personnel (40-60% mobilized). These units are more or less equipped with weapons and vehicles, but to a lesser extent than at the beginning of the war. The remaining 1/4 to 1/3 is made up of PMC Wagner. Their objectives vary from sector to sector. The unequipped light infantry is often used to draw fire during an assault.

⚡️ Diplomacy: The Saudi Arabian foreign minister arrived in Kyiv and announced a $400 million aid package of which $100 million is humanitarian aid and $300 million is oil products which are very important. This is a political rebalancing as a result of Russia’s alliance with Iran. China’s so-called peace plan was also released. It is an unacceptable document because it does not differentiate the aggressor and the victim countries.

⚡️ Finances: According to Forbes, Russia spent $114.4 billion or a third of its entire budget on, as Arestovich calls it, “the war of the strip-teasing generals”. The US secretary of the treasury visited Kyiv and announced a $10 billion+ aid package to Ukraine’s budget, as well as $1.5 billion for Ukraine’s reconstruction and $1.1 billion for the Ukrainian and Moldovan energy grids.

⚡️ The Collapse of Russia: Medvedev and Putin both discussed the collapse of Russia. This indicates that this scenario is considered to be plausible by them and that it has already been discussed for 3-4 months. In addition, the fact that the president himself voiced this concern indicates that this is an issue of the highest level. Russia is racing towards the abyss. Arestovych believes that the war has entered its final phase, the last third.

⚡️ Wizzair flights to Moldova: Wizzair is stopping all flights to Moldova from the 14th of March due to security concerns. This does not necessarily indicate an imminent invasion, just that Wizzair decided that it would be easier to pull out now and resume flights later than to risk it.

⚡️ Arestovych urges Ukrainians in Europe to not be afraid to cooperate with western prosecutors in regard to Russian war crimes. Punishing Russian war criminals is essential to prevent a second Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Next stream on Wednesday.

notimagain · 01/03/2023 07:28

@DesdamonasHandkerchief

"Belarusian Partisans blew up a very expensive Russian aircraft at the Machulyschi airbase..."

Morning...

Just to address a couple of open'ish points around the debate around ^ that aircraft left over from my post late yesterday, then I must get onto domestic stuff today otherwise..😳

Weather yesterday/satellite imaging: I've yet to find find any online reports for weather (either actual, forecast or archived) actually at Machulyschi itself, which is not completely surprising with it being military....If anybody does have them to hand I'd appreciate a look.

OTOH Minsk international airport's (32 km away, ENE) weather data is on file would perhaps be indicative of the general situation. It's in line with @Zuffe 's comments - fog until just before1030 local/ 0730 UTC yesterday then it cleared very rapidly...so imaging in visual wavelengths late AM yesterday may not have been out of the question.

As far as timing of the media report: Looking again I see the author of the piece I provided the link to actually does states he's on EST at one point, so it looks like it was filed in the States late AM EST, potentially half a dozen hours or more after any images were gathered. Personally, just an IMO, but I don't get any feelings that the timelines around the report yesterday are inevitably "off".

The images themselves: If they do show the A-50 that was attacked then it doesn't appear to be destroyed, but whether relatively small scale damage was inflicted that makes the aircraft unusable - who knows? You can ground an aircraft very effectively with a few small holes in the right place.

Looking ahead it would interesting to know if the aircraft moves at all in the next few days. Given it's a valuable and rare asset if it doesn't fly then chances are something has gone on.

Igotjelly · 01/03/2023 08:51

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/28/watch-swim-estonias-ambassador-londons-serpentine-lake/

For those of us who follow Ukraine the Latest - Dom Nicholls does diplomacy, Estonian style Grin

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/03/2023 09:50

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

Russian authorities appear to be escalating their promotion of false flag information operations in an effort to distract from their lack of tangible battlefield gains and slow down the provision of Western tanks and other aid in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives.

US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl stated that the US has no indication that Russian forces will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the role of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in supporting the war in Ukraine during an address to the FSB board.

The Kremlin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko are likely attempting to intensify efforts to falsely portray Russia as open to negotiations to end its war in Ukraine.

Lukashenko may facilitate Sino-Russian sanctions evasion schemes during his official trip to Beijing, China from February 28 to March 2.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove and Kreminna and likely made limited advances north of
Kreminna.

Russian forces made tactical gains in northern Bakhmut and continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.

Ukrainian officials continue to report potential Russian preparations for renewed offensive operations in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, though ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces plan to renew offensive operations in these directions.

Armenian authorities detained a Russian citizen in Yerevan for an act of protest against the war in Ukraine committed in Moscow in July 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky enacted a Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council decision to sanction 109 Russian citizens involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.

Deutsche Welle reported that Lukashenko will sign a large package of agreements on developing joint projects, trade, economic, investment, humanitarian cooperation, and political cooperation with China during his three-day visit.[19] Lukashenko previously stated that the Belarusian defense industry can produce weapons since Belarus has access to microelectronics, optics, and other component imports from other states.[20] Ukrainian intelligence officials stated that Belarus supplied Russia with artillery ammunition from Belarusian warehouses to support operations in Ukraine.[21] US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns stated on February 25 that the CIA is confident that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia.[22] China may clandestinely transfer equipment to Russia via Belarus.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/03/2023 10:00

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Bloomberg: China imports Russian uranium (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-china-imports-russian-uranium-concerns-rise-over-the-nuclear-arms-race), raising concerns over the nuclear arms race.
China’s imports of Russian uranium will fuel a new reactor, creating weapons-grade plutonium as a byproduct, according to a Bloomberg article on Feb. 28

⚡️Report: Western-made parts are used (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/report-western-made-parts-are-used-in-russian-weapons-involved-in-war-crimes) in Russian weapons involved in war crimes.
Western technology companies continued to export dual-use and specific military components to Russia as late as November 2022, according to a new report released by International Partnership for Human Rights and the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission.

⚡️Drone reportedly crashes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/drone-reportedly-crashes-near-gazprom-facility-in-moscow-region) near Gazprom facility in Moscow region. The drone was allegedly found next to the Voskresensk gas compressor station owned by Russia’s energy giant Gazprom, the station’s spokesperson told Russian media outlet RBC

⚡️Poll: One third of Ukrainian refugees in EU want (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/poll-one-third-of-ukrainian-refugees-in-eu-want-to-return-home) to return home. A similar proportion would like to remain in their host countries, according to a new survey released on Feb. 28 by the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA)

⚡️Putin signs law (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/putin-signs-russias-suspension-of-start-treaty-into-law) suspending major nuclear treaty with US.

⚡️Ukraine’s military: Russia deploys additional ships (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/southern-command-russia-deploys-more-ships-to-the-black-sea) to Black Sea.
Ukraine’s Southern Command reported on Feb. 28 that Russia deployed additional ships to the Black Sea. There are currently 17 ships, including five missile carriers and two submarines.

⚡️National Police block channels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/national-police-block-channels-linked-to-violent-russian-linked-youth-movement) promoting violent Russian-linked youth movement. The movement originated in Russia and promotes violent confrontations between teenagers.

⚡️CNN: US, allies have trained (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-us-trains-1-000-ukrainian-soldiers-since-january) over 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers.

⚡️Ukraine’s military: Additional troops (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-military-additional-troops-to-be-sent-to-bakhmut) to be sent to Bakhmut.
Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine’s Land Forces and Eastern Operational Command, ordered to send more troops to Bakhmut following his trip to the front line on Feb. 25.

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv says Russia prepares for offensive in southern Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-kyiv-says-that-russia-prepares-for-offensive-in-southern-ukraine)
Ukraine continues to hold Bakhmut despite the seven-month-long Russian attempt to capture the city as Moscow tries to increase its grip over the entirety of the eastern Donetsk Oblast, around half of which it currently occupies.

⚡️Zelensky meets with International Criminal Court prosector (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-meets-with-international-criminal-court-prosector-in-kyiv) in Kyiv.

⚡️ General Staff: Ukraine repels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-repels-more-than-85-russian-attacks-over-past-day) more than 85 Russian attacks over past day.

On Feb. 15, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov accused Russia of sabotaging the initiative by deliberately slowing down inspections.
According to the joint statement, more than 140 vessels are waiting for inspections, with some in a queue for over a month.
In an exclusive interview (kyivindependent.com/business/interview-mykola-solskyi) with the Kyiv Independent, Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi said Russia decreased the number of inspections by half.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/03/2023 10:09

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The German concern Rheinmetall has started supplying Ukraine with SurveilSPIRE automated intelligence systems manufactured by Estonian DefSecIntel.
SurveilSPIRE is a system used to monitor borders, coastal zones, and search for enemy targets and threats. It is automated and processes data using artificial intelligence, so it allows for reconnaissance over a large area with a minimum number of personnel. The system includes an observation tower, solar panels, drones, a control system, and a transportation platform (trailer). Only three people are needed to deploy the system, and it operates on its own.

Russia does not plan to stop military operations in Ukraine and is still considering a renewed offensive on Kyiv, the war will last at least until the end of 2023, Latvian intelligence says.
It is also noted that Ukraine needs much more military support from the West to win.

🇮🇹 Italian intelligence believes that Russians now need an operational pause to prepare for a long war under Western sanctions [they have upped the claims of wanting negotiations; this will be in order to create the pause they want, as happened before xmas]

Finland has started building a 70-kilometer fence on the border with Russia. Its first test section will be three meters high, and barbed wire will be stretched over the fence. The fence will be equipped with night vision surveillance cameras and lighting, as well as speakers. The fence is scheduled to be completed in 2025.

Ukraine is checking the circumstances of the entry of the US NBC TV crew to the temporarily occupied Crimea, Foreign Ministry spokesman Nikolenko says.

US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink said that the Chinese satellite company Spacety provided aerial photographs to Russian mercenaries of the Wagner PMC.
Based in Beijing and with international headquarters in Luxembourg, Spacety specializes in small satellites and satellite services. In February 2023, the US Department of Commerce added it to the blacklist.

Dutch companies continue to sell flowers to Russia because this product is not subject to EU sanctions, and producers and exporters have no moral objections.

Mercenaries from Mali and Palestine are fighting for Russia

At night, 4 of the 4 "Shaheds" launched by Russia were shot down, - the Air Force Command.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has voiced new accusations against Ukraine over Transnistria. It now claims that Ukrainian troops are allegedly "planning indiscriminate attacks on radiation-hazardous facilities to contaminate the area" in order to blame the Russian army.The Russian Foreign Ministry has voiced new accusations against Ukraine over Transnistria. It now claims that Ukrainian troops are allegedly "planning indiscriminate attacks on radiation-hazardous facilities to contaminate the area" in order to blame the Russian army.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/03/2023 10:19

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Putin complained that neither Macron nor Scholz had called him for a long time
Peskov's spokesman says Putin remains open to talks on Ukraine "that could one way or another help Russia achieve its own goals," but so far neither Scholz nor Macron, whom the Kremlin wants to talk to, have made contact. [part of the delaying negotiations]

In the next 10 years, a demographic catastrophe may occur in Ukraine, which has not happened in any country in the world, – noted the director of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of Ukraine Ella Libanova
2022 was the year of a significant drop in the birth rate, and there are risks that by 2030 the population of Ukraine will decrease to at least 35 million.
Demographic losses as a result of the war are enormous: this includes an increase in mortality, a decrease in the birth rate, and emigration abroad.

Russia is losing about 150 tanks per month, based on Oryx data (which does not include all losses, but only those that are documented), The Economist notes.

European countries were not ready to hand over the promised number of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, writes The New York Times
"Some countries have found that the tanks in their arsenal are actually not working or have no spare parts
Political leaders faced unexpected resistance within their own coalitions and even from defense ministries. And some armies had to hire retired instructors to teach Ukrainian soldiers how to use old tanks.
"Despite the fact that Europe has about two thousand Leopard-2 tanks of various models promised to Ukraine, it still lacks the hundreds it needs," the publication writes.

Ukraine will take part in the international study of the quality of education PISA-2025, — Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal

On March 1, military exercises will begin in occupied Transnistria

The Pentagon does not consider it necessary to start training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16, — Ukraine may never get these planes
According to estimates by the US Department of Defense, Ukraine needs 50-80 fighters, although Kyiv requested the supply of 128. The transfer of outdated F-16 models will take 1.5-2 years, and the production of new ones — from 3 to 6 years. [source not stated]

The Pentagon is confident in Ukraine's purposeful use of Western aid, but insists on transparency and accountability, US Deputy Defense Secretary Colin Kahl said

Ukraine calls on Turkey and the UN to start negotiations on extending the grain agreement for another year, — Reuters

The Russian Chess Federation moved from Europe to Asia

☢️ Ukraine submitted a candidacy to the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Serbia handed over 3,500 Grad anti-aircraft missile defense missiles to Ukraine, Defense Minister Miloš Vučević said [!!] Transit of ammunition was carried out through Türkiye and Slovakia. Previously, Serbia, which is in the orbit of the influence of Russia, was categorically against the transfer of weapons to Ukraine.

Seven power units of Ukrainian nuclear power plants have been completely switched to the fuel of the American company Westinghouse Electric Sweden AB, – "Energoatom"
It is planned that from 2024, all 15 power units of domestic nuclear power plants will be supplied with American fuel.

❗️The USA is considering the supply of liquefied gas to Ukraine, the company Sustainable Solutions from Texas reported

Support for EU anti-Russian sanctions in Hungary is much higher than Orbán says

According to a survey by the Republikon Institute, 46% of respondents support sanctions, 32% are against them, 22% do not know or refused to answer.

In Russia, it was proposed to impose a penalty of imprisonment of up to 15 years for "discrediting" members of the so-called "Special Military Operation"
It is noteworthy that, according to the draft law, it is now also prohibited to "discredit" the "Wagner" PMC.

UNITED24 has created a service where you can "walk" through de-occupied Ukrainian cities and assess the extent of the destruction theundeniablestreetview.com/

MissConductUS · 01/03/2023 19:32

I don't normally pay much attention to the NY Times, but this article was mentioned on another forum I visit, and thought it was worth reposting here. It's a good illustration of why the Russians have done so poorly.

www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tanks.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20230301&instance_id=86568&nl=the-morning&regi_id=129942532&segment_id=126574&te=1&user_id=a10b2d04babdfdc4394947360f1760bf

In an Epic Battle of Tanks, Russia Was Routed, Repeating Earlier Mistakes

By Andrew E. Kramer

March 1, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET

KURAKHOVE, Ukraine --- Before driving into battle in their mud-spattered war machine, a T-64 tank, the three-man Ukrainian crew performs a ritual.

The commander, Pvt. Dmytro Hrebenok, recites the Lord's Prayer. Then, the men walk around the tank, patting its chunky green armor.

"We say, 'Please, don't let us down in battle,'" said Sgt. Artyom Knignitsky, the mechanic. "'Bring us in and bring us out.'"

Their respect for their tank is understandable. Perhaps no weapon symbolizes the ferocious violence of war more than the main battle tank. Tanks have loomed over the conflict in Ukraine in recent months - militarily and diplomatically - as both sides prepared for offensives. Russia pulled reserves of tanks from Cold War-era storage, and Ukraine prodded Western governments to supply American Abrams and German Leopard II tanks.

The sophisticated Western tanks are expected on the battlefield in the next several months. The new Russian armor turned up earlier --- and in its first wide-scale deployment was decimated.

A three-week battle on a plain near the coal-mining town of Vuhledar in southern Ukraine produced what Ukrainian officials say was the biggest tank battle of the war so far, and a stinging setback for the Russians.

In the extended battle, both sides sent tanks into the fray, rumbling over dirt roads and maneuvering around tree lines, with the Russians thrusting forward in columns and the Ukrainians maneuvering defensively, firing from a distance or from hiding places as Russian columns came into their sights.

When it was over, not only had Russia failed to capture Vuhledar, but it also had made the same mistake that cost Moscow hundreds of tanks earlier in the war: advancing columns into ambushes.

Blown up on mines, hit with artillery or obliterated by anti-tank missiles, the charred hulks of Russian armored vehicles now litter farm fields all about Vuhledar, according to Ukrainian military drone footage. Ukraine's military said Russia had lost at least 130 tanks and armored personnel carriers in the battle. That figure could not be independently verified. Ukraine does not disclose how many weapons it loses.

"We studied the roads they used, then hid and waited" to shoot in ambushes, Sergeant Knignitsky said.

Lack of expertise also bedeviled the Russians. Many of their most elite units had been left in shambles from earlier fighting. Their spots were filled with newly conscripted soldiers, unschooled in Ukraine's tactics for ambushing columns. In one indication that Russia is running short of experienced tank commanders, Ukrainian soldiers said they captured a medic who had been reassigned to operate a tank.

The Russian army has focused on, and even mythologized, tank warfare for decades for its redolence of Russian victories over the Nazis in World War II. Factories in the Ural Mountains have churned out tanks by the thousands. In Vuhledar, by last week Russia had lost so many machines to sustain armored assaults that they had changed tactics and resorted only to infantry attacks, Ukrainian commanders said.

The depth of the Russian defeat was underscored by Russian military bloggers, who have emerged as an influential pro-war voice in the country. Often critical of the military, they have posted angry screeds about the failures of repeated tank assaults, blaming generals for misguided tactics with a storied Russian weapon.

Grey Zone, a Telegram channel affiliated with the Wagner mercenary group, posted on Monday that "relatives of the dead are inclined almost to murder and blood revenge against the general" in charge of the assaults near Vuhledar.

In a detailed interview last week in an abandoned house near the front, Lt. Vladislav Bayak, the deputy commander of Ukraine's 1st Mechanized Battalion of the 72nd brigade, described how Ukrainian soldiers were able to inflict such heavy losses in what commanders said was the biggest tank battle of the war so far.

Ambushes have been Ukraine's signature tactic against Russian armored columns since the early days of the war. Working from a bunker in Vuhledar, Lieutenant Bayak spotted the first column of about 15 tanks and armored personnel carriers approaching on a video feed from a drone.

"We were ready," he said. "We knew something like this would happen."

They had prepared a kill zone farther along a dirt road that the tanks were rumbling down. The commander needed only to give an order over the radio - "To battle!" - Lieutenant Bayak said.

Anti-tank teams hiding in tree lines along the fields, and armed with American infrared-guided Javelins and Ukrainian laser-guided Stugna-P missiles, powered up their weapons. Farther away, artillery batteries were ready. The dirt road had been left free of mines, while the fields all about were seeded with them, so as to entice the Russians to advance while preventing tanks from turning around once the trap was sprung.

The column of tanks becomes most vulnerable, Lieutenant Bayak said, after the shooting starts and drivers panic and try to turn around --- by driving onto the mine-laden shoulder of the road. Blown-up vehicles then act as impediments, slowing or stalling the column. At that point, Ukrainian artillery opens fire, blowing up more armor and killing soldiers who clamber out of disabled machines. A scene of chaos and explosions ensues, the lieutenant said.

Russian commanders have sent armored columns forward for a lack of other options against Ukraine's well-fortified positions, however costly the tactic, he said.

Over about three weeks of the tank battle, repeated Russian armored assaults floundered. In one instance, Ukrainian commanders called in a strike by HIMARS guided rockets; they are usually used on stationary targets like ammunition depots or barracks, but also proved effective against a stationary tank column.

The Ukrainians also fired with American M777 and French Caesar howitzers, as well as other Western-provided weaponry such as the Javelins.

The Ukrainian tank crew that prayed before each battle nicknamed their tank The Wanderer, for its wandering movements around the battlefield. Between missions it remained hidden in trees under a camouflage net, beside a road churned into a panorama of mud by passing tanks, five miles or so from the front line.

During the battle for Vuhledar, Private Hrebenok, the commander, was ordered to drive forward from that spot on dangerous missions, three or four times per day.

Private Hrebenok, only 20 years old, had no formal training in tank combat when the war started. But in the frantic first days of the war he was assigned to a tank, and has fought continuously in them since, picking up tricks along the way.

Training still looms as a problem. Ukraine, too, is losing skilled soldiers and replacing them with green recruits. And many Ukrainian tank crewmen are being trained on Western tanks in countries like Germany and Britain.

"All my knowledge I gained in the field," he said. The Russian tank crews, he said, are in contrast mostly new recruits without the benefit of any combat to season them.

In ambushes, the crew hides the tank within range of a road that Russian tanks or armored personnel carriers might travel down. Then it waits quietly. As they sit and prepare for ambush, they must keep the engine warm, because restarting it would take too long. Idling would be noisy. Instead, they burn a small kerosene heater beside the motor.

Once, while they were waiting, a Russian armored personnel carrier passed through their sight and they fired but narrowly missed, damaging but not destroying the machine.

In the last major engagement, a week ago, the order came in during the gray pre-dawn to prepare an ambush for a column of 16 Russian tanks and armored vehicles advancing toward the Ukrainian lines. The crew said their prayer, patted their tank and drove forward.

"We hid the tank in a tree line and waited for them," Private Hrebenok said. "It's always scary but we need to destroy them."

In this instance, they stopped about three miles short of the ambush site, just out of range of return fire, and shot in coordination with a drone pilot who called in coordinates on a radio for targets they could not see directly.

The Russian column stalled on mines and, Private Hrebenok said, The Wanderer opened fire. The Russian tank crews had little chance once they were in the kill zone, he said.

"We destroyed a lot of Russian equipment," he said. "What they did wrong was come to Ukraine."

Maria Varenikova contributed reporting.

Andrew E. Kramer is the Times bureau chief in Kyiv. He was part of a team that won the 2017 Pulitzer Prize in International Reporting for on Russia's covert projection of power

Surplus2requirements · 01/03/2023 20:16

@MissConductUS I love that quote "what they did wrong was come to Ukraine"

So simple with so many layers

Mb76 · 01/03/2023 20:22

Surplus2requirements · 01/03/2023 20:16

@MissConductUS I love that quote "what they did wrong was come to Ukraine"

So simple with so many layers

Indeed

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/03/2023 10:46

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-1-2023

Key Takeaways

The Kremlin may leverage an amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code increasing punishments for "discrediting" the war in Ukraine to promote further self-censorship measures among the critical ultranationalist community, prompting pushback from Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and prominent milbloggers.

A New York Times (NYT) investigation into catastrophic Russian losses during the recent Russian offensive near Vuhledar indicates the Russian military remains unable to rapidly fix the endemic challenges posed by severe personnel and equipment losses.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a package of 16 documents that may facilitate Russian sanctions evasion by channeling Chinese aid to Russia through Belarus.

US officials continue to report that Ukrainian forces are properly using Western-provided weapons in Ukraine.

Russian and occupation authorities may be attempting to further limit the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) presence at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to compel the de facto recognition of Russian ownership of the plant.

Politico reported that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is seemingly reconsidering Serbia’s close ties to Russia during the war in Ukraine, spurred in part by ongoing Wagner Group recruitment and subversion efforts in Serbia.

Russian forces are fortifying positions on the international border in Belgorod Oblast.

Russian forces advanced within Bakhmut and continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.

Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continue defensive operations in southern Ukraine.

Russian occupation authorities continue to struggle with the administrative management of occupied areas.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/03/2023 10:58

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Media: Stoltenberg invites (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-stoltenberg-invites-zelensky-to-attend-nato-summit-in-vilnius) Zelensky to attend NATO summit in Vilnius.

In April, Russian forces wrecked the water supply line for the city of Mykolaiv.
Since then, Mykolaiv residents have had no drinking water supply, relying for the past 10 months on alternative sources. Their main source of water is a system of wells.

⚡️Russia claims (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-claims-to-shoot-down-10-drones-attacking-occupied-crimea) 10 Ukrainian drones attacked occupied Crimea.
According to the ministry, six drones were shot down by the air defense, and four more were “disabled using electronic warfare.”

⚡️Bloomberg: Russia’s war ‘unravels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-russias-war-unravels-its-consumer-economy-worse-than-covid-19-pandemic)’ its consumer economy worse than Covid-19 pandemic.

⚡️IAEA: 3-week delay (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/iaea-3-week-delay-in-expert-team-rotation-at-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant) in expert team rotation at Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
“This is a concerning trend that shows the urgency and importance of establishing a nuclear safety and security protection zone at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant,” International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi said, adding that nuclear safety was in everyone's best interest.

⚡️Court sentences (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/court-sentences-former-ukrainian-airlines-ceo-to-5-years-in-prison) ex-head of Boryspil airport to 5 years in prison.
According to the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, Yevhenii Dykhne, the former head of Ukraine's state-owned Boryspil International Airport, has been found guilty of abuse of power, resulting in Hr 15.7 million ($429,000) in damages.

⚡️Police chief appointed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sbu-former-chief-of-vinnytsia-police-charged-with-high-treason-for-cooperating-with-russia) by Avakov charged with high treason. Anton Shevtsov, an ex-chief of Vinnytsya Oblast police, had been charged with high treason in absentia.

⚡️Law enforcement to share
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/interior-minister-brovary-helicopter-crash-investigation-to-conclude-in-spring)first results of Brovary helicopter crash investigation by early April.

⚡️CNN: Germany to increase
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-german-chancellor-pledges-more-defense-aid-to-ukraine)ammunition production, repair capacity to support Ukraine.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said during a press conference on March 1 that his country will provide Ukraine with more ammunition and weapon repairs, reported CNN.

⚡️Eastern Command: Ukraine has not made decision (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eastern-command-ukraine-has-not-made-decision-to-withdraw-from-bakhmut) to withdraw from Bakhmut.
Despite ongoing heavy battles in Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, the Ukrainian forces have not made the decision to withdraw from the city, Serhii Cherevaty, spokesman of the Eastern Operational Command, told CNN on March 1

⚡️Russia threatens to back out
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-threatens-to-back-out-of-black-sea-grain-initiative)of Black Sea Grain Initiative.

⚡️Interior Minister: 30% of Ukraine, including occupied territories, mined (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/interior-minister-30-of-ukraine-including-occupied-territories-mined).

⚡️Ukraine's military: Russia lacks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-military-russia-lacks-enough-troops-in-transnistria-to-open-new-front) enough troops in Transnistria to open second front.

⚡️Biden signs (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/biden-signs-executive-order-prolonging-national-emergency-russian-aggression-poses-us) executive order prolonging 'national emergency' Russian aggression poses to US.

⚡️Commander: Air defense shooting down (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-military-air-defense-shooting-down-80-of-russian-missiles) 80% of Russian missiles.

⚡️Exports from EU to Ukraine reach (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eurostat) pre-war levels in December 2022.

⚡️Reuters: US seeks allies' support (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-us-seeks-allies-backing-for-possible-china-sanctions-over-ukraine-war) for possible China sanctions over Ukraine war.
The United States is reaching out to close allies about the possibility of coordinating sanctions against China if the country provides lethal aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine, Reuters reported, citing four unnamed U.S. officials and other sources.

⚡️Slovakia considering giving (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/slovakia-considering-giving-ukraine-10-of-its-11-soviet-era-mi-g-29-jets) Ukraine 10 of its 11 Soviet-era MiG-29 jets.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine repels more than 170 Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-repels-over-170-russian-attacks-over-past-24-hours) over past 24 hours.

Personnel losses higher again and also hardware.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/03/2023 11:07

UNITED24 Media Telegram

There has been no capacity deficit in the power system for 18 days and it is currently not forecast, — Ukrenergo

Pentagon: Iran can create a nuclear bomb "in about 12 days"
The US Department of Defense admits that Iran has made a nuclear leap. It used to take at least a year to produce fissile material for one bomb, but now it can be done in less than 2 weeks. [Iran having a nuke is fucking terrifying]

Serbs who were recruited to fight in Ukraine will be arrested when they return to the country or come within the range of our institutions, Politico quoted Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić as saying Politico

The European Union will triple the production of ammunition, — Spiegel

The February three-week assault by the occupiers of Vuhledar became the largest tank battle of the entire war and turned into a painful failure for Russia (NYT)

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the statements of the Russian Federation that "Ukraine is preparing a strike for Transnistria"

🌾In the temporarily occupied Luhansk region, the Russians are preventing local farmers from selling grain both on the domestic and foreign markets, — the General Staff
Because of this, last year's harvest spoils massively among farmers. In addition, on an unofficial level, the occupation authorities prohibited all local bakeries from accepting this grain.

The US officially received a notification from the Russian Federation about the decision to suspend participation in START I, – the State Department

The war in Ukraine may end in two years, – US Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, reports Political Lore

⚡️ Zelenskyy held a long energy meeting, where he discussed with key companies the further work of the Ukrainian energy syste

In March, EU countries should allocate €1 billion for the supply of weapons requested by the Armed Forces, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, told AFP.

The West is pressuring the UAE to force the country to suspend re-exports to Russia of products that could be used for military purposes, — Financial Times
In particular, the USA believes that the UAE supplies the Russian Federation with electronics that can be repurposed for military purposes to circumvent sanctions.
The Office for the Coordination of Sanctions of the United States noted that the discussion of this issue with the authorities of the Arab country is ongoing.

Scholz explained why calls to Putin are useless and what threatens negotiations with Russia at the current stage of the war
"One cannot negotiate with a gun pressed to the temple. Unless it's about one’s own humility," Scholz said. [previously Putin has complained that Scholz and Macron haven't been calling him]

The death toll from Russia's March 2 attack on a residential building in Zaporizhzhia has risen to four, according to Prosecutor General's Office.

Russian losses during a full-scale war with Ukraine exceeded the combined losses of the Russian Federation or the USSR in all conflicts since World War II, – American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

In Melitopol and Enerhodar, activists remake the Russian "Z": they turn it into an hourglass [that's a nice trick that's going to spread!]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/03/2023 11:22

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇫🇮 The Finnish Parliament has voted in favor of joining NATO. The country will now be able to become a member of the Alliance if Türkiye and Hungary ratify it.

Serbia will not sign the previously agreed plan for normalization of relations with Kosovo because of the provisions that provide for its recognition and membership in the UN - President Vuci

Fresh satellite images have emerged of the Russian airfield in Yeysk (Krasnodar Krai), where the fighter jets were based. Yesterday, information about explosions at the airfield, followed by a fire, was spread in the public domain.

Argentine Foreign Ministry calls on Russia to end the war

🇫🇷 France is preparing to confiscate property of a sanctioned Russian oligarch for the first time

[lol] The Russians fabricated a video of Russians clearing the house
The cameraman was the first to enter the basement to film them coming down the stairs!

The prosecutor's office reported that four people were killed in a five-story building in Zaporizhzhia. Eight people were injured, and five others are missing (including one child). The rubble is still being cleared at the site. Volunteers are providing people with the necessary assistance.

Russian media and social media report that Ukrainian saboteurs allegedly clashed with the Russian military in Sushany, and that one of the groups "took hostages" in the village of Liubechane. TASS reports on the dead and wounded.
❗️The "North" command stated that they knew nothing about the incidents in the border areas of the Russian Federation.

❗️The "North" command published a short reminder that "the enemy may resort to provocations and try to discredit the Armed Forces Of Ukraine". The reason for its publication was not specified. It may be related to Russian statements about battles with subversive groups.

Meanwhile, the Russian Volunteer Corps Telegram channel publishes an appeal from unknown fighters with yellow ribbons, who claim to have crossed the border in the Bryansk region to fight against the Putin regime.

Ukrainian intelligence considers the reports of clashes in the Bryansk region "a continuation of Russia's transformation, its purification and liberation from Putin's dictatorship," said Andriy Yusov, a representative of the GUR, in a commentary to Hromadske.

[the last paragraphs indicate something odd and perhaps interesting is happening. It looks like possibly an independent group tried something on, ukraine thought it was a Russian false flag operation but now it may be claiming it. Only guessing! with all the talk of false flag ops, it's hard to tell what's happening]

Ukrainian troops destroy enemy equipment in the area of the Kinburn Spit almost every day. Natalia Gumenyuk, head of the press center of the "South" command, said that Russians are shelling cities from the spit, but always receive a response.
Over the past day alone, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed four boats, five vehicles and two pieces of heavy artillery on the Kinburn Spit [these are however not reported in the daily losses as far as I can see]

In their report, the International Partnership for Human Rights and the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission listed Western companies whose components were found in Russian missiles.

Fresh satellite images have emerged of the Russian airfield in Yeysk (Krasnodar Krai), where the fighter jets were based. Yesterday, information about explosions at the airfield, followed by a fire, was spread in the public domain.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/03/2023 11:29

Washington Post Telegram

  • Blinken has warned that China will face sanctions if it supplies lethal support to Russia. China has vehemently denied any such plans, and in recent days has been positioning itself as a potential peacemaker in the conflict.
  • Blinken made the remarks during a stopover in Kazakhstan on his way to the G-20 meeting. He met there with officials from a handful of former Soviet nations in central Asia that have kept close ties to Russia.

Germany pledged to revamp its military after Ukraine. Now it’s worse off.
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/16/germany-military-bundeswehr-boris-pistorius/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)Despite trumpeting a huge boost in defense spending in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany’s armed forces are in a worse place than a year ago, the country’s new defense minister, Boris Pistorius, said in an interview this week.
Germany is not alone among Ukraine’s allies that are struggling to fill the gap created by deliveries to Kyiv, and the military’s operational readiness has only been impacted “to a limited extent,” the defense minister said on the sidelines of a NATO meeting in Brussels, in his first interview with an English-language newspaper since taking office last month.
But it may be some time before the vision of a strengthened German military is realized.
“Given the rate at which materiel and weapons and ammunition are being provided, it’s impossible to reorder and deliver again,” Pistorius said.

Khodorkovsky warns West of war with China if Russia wins in Ukraine
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/15/mikhail-khodorkovsky-russia-opposition-oligarch/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)LONDON — A Russian military victory in Ukraine will embolden Beijing and lead to war between the United States and China over Taiwan, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the exiled Russian tycoon and vocal critic of Vladimir Putin’s regime, warned in an interview ahead of remarks that he will deliver to global leaders at a major security and defense conference in Germany this weekend.

Here is the latest from Ukraine:

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/01/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- The besieged city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine is facing the “most difficult situation” in the country as the battle for control of the front-line city intensifies, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

- Hungary’s president urged lawmakers to urgently move to allow Finland and Sweden to join NATO.

  • Russia is not interested in “meaningful diplomacy,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

- Russian President Vladimir Putin said he will host Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow, state media reported.

A girl drew an antiwar picture in school. Russia detained her dad.
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/01/russia-children-antiwar-crackdown-father/)The father of a 12-year-old girl who drew an antiwar picture in her art class in Russia is facing criminal charges and a potential three-year prison sentence, and his daughter has been placed temporarily in an orphanage.

Sakharov Center forced to close as wartime Russia purges human rights groups
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/02/andrei-sakharov-center-moscow-closed/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main)MOSCOW — The yellowing notebooks, manuscripts and letters of the great Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov have been packed up into boxes and cases, stacked in a pile in his old apartment, their future uncertain.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s wartime purge of liberals and human rights activists has forced the Sakharov Center, a museum and cultural space in Moscow, to close as the Kremlin rips up the legacy of rights defenders like Sakharov, who died in 1989, and destroys organizations dedicated to justice and freedom.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/03/2023 11:39

@Zuffe @notimagain there is a video of that plane taking off today. Seems the damage was indeed very light.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/03/2023 11:39

@Zuffe sorry

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/03/2023 11:53

It seems the repairs to the Kerch Crossing bridge are complete, and now they are starting work on the rail section

ChrisO_wiki
AT ChrisO_wiki
1/ Russia appears to have recently removed a span of the Kerch railway bridge to Crimea, presumably to carry out repairs following the (likely Ukrainian) bomb attack on the bridge last October. Here's why this is significant.

twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1631218284870656000

MagicFox · 02/03/2023 14:02

A hopeful piece, 'How the Ukraine War Could End in Peace'

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-ukraine-war-could-end-in-peace-by-harold-james-2023-03

OP posts: