Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

[MagicFox]

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

If Scholz doesn't take the opportunity he is being given to come up with the goods at the end of this week at the Ramstein meting then that really is a major blow, I think if that happens it really would be right to question the level some in the west are or are not prepared to provide to Ukraine.

I think it would call into question the strength of the EU as a united entity. There would be a number of serious long term implications if that happens.

Someone o Twitter came up with an interesting one, wondering if anyone knows more. This is the set of posts:

Germany has started deploying Patriot air defense systems to Poland - Der Spiegel. They will cover the logistics point where military aid to Ukraine is collected

Trent Telenko
AT TrentTelenko
·
3h
>>They will cover the logistics point where military aid to Ukraine is collected.

Now why do that if Russia is afraid of NATO activating Article 5?

That 'errant Ukrainian missile' at Przewodow, Poland is looking much less Ukrainian now, doesn't it.🤔

Robin Taylor
AT RO8s

The S300 shoots down missiles/aircraft by firing a cloud of steel butterflies. None were found and the tractor tyres were unshredded. Not a Ukrainian missile.

@notimagain Yes agree 100% on the Leopard 2 stuff but i think a UK promise of 30 tanks would have put a lot more pressure on Germany than 12 does & 30 would have made a difference.

It also means many countries will be needed to get to the 200 tanks Ukraine say they will need.

Russian embassy in Sweden has published an imagine related to gas prices that shows Crimea as being Ukrainian.

Morning, playing catch up again..longish post warning

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Of course the background is that a Patriot unti from Germany (believed to be one battery) was something Chancellor Scholz was prepared to agree to, it was announced a few weeks ago..

defence-blog.com/germany-to-arm-ukraine-with-patriot-missiles/

As to where it's going to supposedly be deployed I'd understand:

"They will cover the logistics point where military aid to Ukraine is collected"

as meaning somewhere inside Ukraine where materiel is being held after entering the country but before being sent forward, if so Article 5 isn't a factor. As I recall events the Russians have already hit such a target, near Lviv, not long after the war started.

Re the S-300 (?) in Poland..IMO you need to see/know a lot more than tractor tyres to draw any conclusions one way or the other.

You'd need to have a handle on the really techie stuff like the exact warhead type used on the particular missile supposedly involved, the designed dispersion pattern of any pre-planned fragmentation (that can to some extent be shaped) , the fuzeing (e.g. proximity or impact) the trajectory of the missile on arrival and of course really forensic detail of the accident site to draw any sensible conclusions.

@Alexandra2001

i think a UK promise of 30 tanks would have put a lot more pressure on Germany than 12 does & 30 would have made a difference.

Agree completely and who knows maybe despite my previous comments at some point UK plc actually will be able to rustle up more...

I think current idea is sensible - there are so many Leopard users out there that them each donating a small percentage of their current usable fleet potentially gets big numbers of a common tank type (helps with logistics etc) to Ukraine quickly.

As @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar says it's hard to see how this will work out if Chancellor Scholz continues to block the transfers.

TBF there have at times been similar grumbles about the Swiss and ammunition so it's not just the Germans playing these sort of games..

www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-government-rejects-german-request-re-export-swiss-ammunition-ukraine-2022-11-03/

I'm seeing my dad on Friday. Although he retired many years ago now, challenger tanks were his day job. I'll ask his thoughts.

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
·
19h
⚡️Russian defense ministry confirms plan to expand army to 1.5 million troops.

Thanks for that @notimagain

It seems there's been a very bad helicopter crash in Ukraine.

According to Ihor Klymenko's post, among the dead are Minister of Internal Affairs Denys Monastyrskyi, First Deputy Minister Yevgeny Yenin, and State Secretary Yuriy Lubkovich

It may have fallen on a kindergarten with children already arrived for the morning

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced on January 17 that he will implement Russian President Vladimir Putin's directive to conduct large-scale military reforms between 2023-2026 to expand Russia's conventional armed forces, likely in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine and also to set conditions to build a significantly stronger Russian military quickly.

Putin may announce a second mobilization wave in the coming days, possibly as soon as January 18.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is trying to improve professionalism within the Russian armed forces and likely test and improve the effectiveness of its chains of command down to the small unit level.

Several prominent voices in the pro-war information space seized on these guidelines to support further criticisms of the Russian MoD, suggesting that the MoD will likely face stiff resistance.

Serbian President Alexander Vucic called on the Wagner Group to cease recruitment in Serbia.

Russian forces continued to conduct limited counterattacks near Kreminna as Ukrainian officials continued to suggest that Russian forces may be preparing for a decisive effort in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued offensive actions across the Donetsk Oblast front line.

The Russian information space is struggling to portray tactical Russian gains around Soledar as operationally significant.

Russian forces in Kherson Oblast continue to struggle to maintain their logistics efforts in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast due to Ukrainian strikes.

A Russian occupation official claimed that Putin will make an "important statement" pertaining to the war in Ukraine on January 18.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may be attempting to establish the Wagner Group as a legal entity in Russia.

Shoigu stated that Putin ordered Russian authorities to increase the number of Russian military personnel to 1.5 million (from the current 1.35 million). ...Shoigu announced that Russia will reestablish the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, form a new army corps in Karelia (on the Finnish border), form new self-sufficient force groupings in occupied Ukraine, and form 12 new maneuver divisions......These reforms demonstrate Russia’s intent to reform the Russian military to conduct large-scale conventional warfighting in general and not just for the current war against Ukraine,....Russia’s ability to generate large-scale rapid change in its military capacity depends on President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to redirect large portions of the federal budget to a military buildup and putting Russia on something like a war footing for several years. There are signs that Putin might be willing to do so.

~It is generally accepted that Soledar has fallen and fighting is now on the outskirts of Bahkmut~

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️Controversial advisor Arestovych resigns (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/controversial-advisor-arestovych-resigns-after-false-claims-on-dnipro-missile-attack) after false claims on Dnipro missile attack.
Oleksii Arestovych announced his resignation as freelance advisor to the President’s Office after falsely claiming that Ukrainian air defence had hit a Russian missile before it destroyed an apartment building in Dnipro, killing at least 44 people on Jan. 14. Russian propaganda channels seized on Arestovych’s claim, which was swiftly refuted by the Ukrainian Air Force.

Ukraine war latest: Search for survivors ends in Dnipro (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-search-for-survivors-ends-in-dnipro)

⚡️Death toll in Dnipro apartment complex strike rises (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/death-toll-in-dnipro-apartment-complex-strike-rises-to-45) to 45.

⚡️First lady Zelenska speaks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/first-lady-zelenska-speaks-at-davos-forum-warns-attendees-about-russian-threat) at Davos forum, warns attendees about Russian threat.

⚡️SBU catches (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sbu-catches-alleged-russian-agents-searching-for-ukrainian-weapons-placements) alleged Russian agents searching for Ukrainian weapons placements.
According to the Security Service of Ukraine, the two men allegedly sought the locations of Ukraine's air defense installations, HIMARS systems and M777 howitzers, and had orders to destroy Ukrainian military assets, with a $20,000 bounty offered for each.

⚡️US, Ukrainian military commanders meet (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-ukrainian-military-commanders-meet-in-poland-for-the-first-time) in Poland for the first time.
Valeriy Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, had his first-ever in-person meeting with Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, in Poland on Jan. 17.

⚡️Zelensky, Steinmeier discuss (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-steinmeier-discuss-german-military-aid-for-ukraine) German military aid for Ukraine.

⚡️Dutch PM pledges (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/dutch-pm-pledges-to-supply-patriot-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine) to supply Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine.

Harder than ever: How power outages affect people with disabilities in Ukraine
(kyivindependent.com/national/harder-than-ever-how-power-outages-affect-people-with-disabilities-in-ukraine)

⚡️ Official: Russia has abducted almost 14,000 (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/official-russia-has-abducted-almost-14-000-ukrainian-children) Ukrainian children.
Daria Herasymchuk, Ukraine’s presidential advisor for children’s rights and rehabilitation, reported on Jan. 17 that only 125 children, who were illegally deported to Russia, have been returned to Ukraine.

⚡️⚡️Police chief: Helicopter crash in Brovary kills 18 people, including Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi.
helicopter crash kills top interior ministry officials, children (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/brovary-helicopter-crash-kills-top-interior-ministry-officials-children)
The crash of a State Emergency Service helicopter in Brovary, a city just east of Kyiv, killed 16 people, including Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky, his deputy, Yevhen Yenin, and the ministry's secretary Yuriy Lubkovych, as well as 3 children, National Police Chief Ihor Klymenko said on Jan. 18.

⚡️Media: Hungary wants EU to lift sanctions (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-hungary-wants-eu-to-lift-sanctions-from-oligarchs-close-to-putin) from oligarchs close to Putin.

Very high personnel losses, 1 plane down.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

During this year, 20,000 Ukrainian servicemen will be trained in the UK, the Australian military will join the training, — Ben Wallace

[Unconfirmed rumours that Moscow is preparing for an outage of electricity in the case of missile attacks]

⚡️The European Union provides Ukraine with 3 billion euros, — Ministry of Finance
On Tuesday, January 17, the European Union announced the payment of the first tranche of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 3 billion euros.

❗️ Kazakhstan canceled the so-called "visaran"
Now foreigners will be able to stay in the country for no more than 90 days – and it is no longer possible to reset the permitted period of stay by going abroad and returning back.
This means that now Russian citizens will be able to stay in Kazakhstan for no more than 90 days within a 180-day period.

Gas prices in Europe are now lower than they were before the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [so why the hell are they still through the roof!]

British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will try to convince Canada and the United States to provide armored vehicles to Ukraine during his visit to North America, – Sky News

Russian tourists no longer receive multiple-entry Schengen visas
The Association of Tour Operators of Russia laments: "One can forget about multi-Schengen for 2 or 3 years, and even more so for 5 years."

First NATO reconnaissance aircraft Boeing E-3 Sentry arrives in Romania
It will monitor the combat activity of the Russians, in particular, in the Black Sea.

The idea of neutrality no longer makes sense, Ukraine should become a member of NATO, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said at the economic forum in Davos

Capturing Kyiv was a top priority for Russia’s invasion forces, and no one believed this attack could be stopped. However, not only their courage, but nature itself has helped Ukrainians to stand their ground.
Full story here:

❗️US plans to complete Patriot control training in 10 weeks, – Oleksiy Reznikov

"We are discussing with our partners the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in an interview with Bloomberg

The German company Wintershall Dea, which previously supplied gas condensate to Gazprom, is completely withdrawing from the Russian market, – an official statement

The IAEA has deployed a mission to the Rivne nuclear power plant, said the agency's director general Rafael Grossi. [plans for the IAEA to stations staff at every Ukrainian NPP were announced a few weeks ago]

The United States may announce a new aid package to Ukraine as early as the end of this week, John Kirby, National Security Council strategic communications coordinator at the White House, told CNN.

The US is moving 155mm shells from its bases in Israel and South Korea, — The New York Times
According to the publication, at the moment, Washington has promised to transfer more than a million shells. In particular, about half of the 300,000 munitions in US warehouses in Israel have already been sent to Europe for further transfer to Ukraine.

The EU is considering a fourth package of sanctions against Iran for supporting Russia, — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

Japan is actively engaged in Ukraine's issues and is expected to present its plans to support Kyiv against a Russian invasion in due course, White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell said at an event in Washington

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The World Economic Forum is taking place in Davos

What is known as of now from the positive moments for Ukraine:

▪️Mayor of Kyiv Klychko met with German Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economy Habeck in Davos. They talked about further support for Ukraine and the transfer of weapons. Positive decisions have been made. Good news will be soon.

▪️Finland is ready to join the transfer of tanks to Ukraine. This was announced by Foreign Minister Haavisto.

▪️Polish President Duda said that his country is gathering a coalition of states that will provide us with Leopard 2 and hopes to form an armored brigade.

▪️President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen is also speaking in Davos today. Tomorrow, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will address the forum and there will be a session with the participation of the UN Secretary General.

Olena Zelenska presented the Ukrainian Formula for Peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos

📉Unemployment rate in Ukraine is 30%, more than 4.7 million people are looking for work

Zelenskyy:

Ukraine appreciates the important new defense decisions taken by the German leadership at the beginning of this year, as well as the significant support in the humanitarian, financial and defense spheres since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion.

During the meeting in the format of a video conference with Federal President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier, we discussed the situation on the frontline, the necessity of increasing defense support for Ukraine, the diplomatic process on the implementation of the Ukrainian Peace Formula.

Thank you for the comprehensive assistance of Germany to Ukrainians. For the assistance that made our army stronger, for the financial support. I would like to express particular gratitude to the citizens of Germany for sheltering Ukrainians in this difficult period.

(whatever the intense frustration of the Leopards, Germany -has- given a lot of mil support to Ukraine)

First NATO reconnaissance aircraft Boeing E-3 Sentry arrives in Romania
It will monitor the combat activity of the Russians, in particular, in the Black Sea.

Good to hear but I suspect that might not change much operationally ...at various times since well before the invasion the various aircraft ADS tracking sites have shown E-3s operating around the edges of the conflict area, including over Romania and at times over the Black Sea.

What operating out of a base in Romania itself might do is make such operations potentially more efficient since it avoids long transits to/from the main operating base which have been situated further west in Europe, it's also a bit of a political statement.

^^Bad phraseology by me.

It does change operations (short transit), it's not a new capability

Tanks are used in both defensive and offensive roles. A typic defensive role would have them positioned some miles behind the front lines to act as a mobile reserve force, ready to go anywhere that needed reinforcement to respond to an enemy attack.

On offense, they would operate in formation with armored personnel carriers and infantry, with aviation and artillery support. One tactic that worked well in Iraq was deploying multiple hunter-killer teams of three Bradley IFVs and one Abrams tank as an armor vanguard. Armor is the pointy end of the spear on offense. They don't act as artillery as they attack targets within the line of sight.

Bradleys typically attack in groups of four or five. When they get to the point where the infantry inside dismounts, the Brads take a covering position and use their 25mm chain guns to provide fire for the infantry troops. Using all of these assets in combination is called combined arms operations. I think it will be quite successful in taking back territory from the Russians.

Sorry, I forgot this bit.

Will the new tanks the Ukranians will receive be vulnerable to the same tactics the Ukranians used against Russia during the initial offensive on Kiev?

Far less so. Tanks need to be screened by infantry, and infantry needs fire support from tanks. The Russians didn't deploy infantry in a screening role, so the Ukrainians could attack them at will in small groups with antitank missiles. The Ukrainians won't make the same mistake. They will go at the Russians with everything at once.

Heaven is a Place on Earth

Actually Lviv is. Whenever I have talked to relatives and contacts in Ukraine about where else they might like to be Lviv/Lvov tends to come up. They imagine life to be near normal there and it is a gateway to Poland and beyond. As I have mentioned though, none have left Ukraine and none so far as I know have been to Lviv in the last year. It is a city of hope though.

Over the past few days I have discussed things with a mid-20s relative who isn’t in Lviv. She’s not near the front line, nor in a major city. She’s in-between. If you headed towards Kyiv from Dnipro on a main road you wouldn’t pass through where she lives, but if you went through middling level roads on an alternative route you might. She’s in what would have once been a distinct village level settlement, but is a little bigger due to perhaps three of them more or less merging together in a linear fashion.

I’ll keep it anonymous, but you won’t have heard of it in the news and the Russian military probably wouldn’t have it on a list of places to hit with a terror weapon. It’s an in-between place. Rather rural. Neither here nor there. Her key possessions include a mobile phone and a USB charged storm/camping lamp.

I have stripped out my contributions and questions, plus family and identifying passages, tidied a bit for clarity, and put together some of the things she has told me when I have basically asked how are things there for you? This is a life away from the places that appear in the news.

I studied, graduated, and got a good job in tourism. I was working in a travel company. But due to the war, it closed and became unemployed and now I do some online work. It is not enough. My life was normal before the war. Then everything changed. I lost my home, my job.

At the moment, I'm trying to just live my life, but it's difficult. Every day it's getting harder and harder. I live in a small place. The lights have started going off, it's cold, everything is getting more expensive.

I am single again. My relationship ended a year ago. It was a painful experience and was before this war. I thought that was the big bad thing in my life. In summer I remembered how I loved going to the sea. It used to be just a wonderful time of the year.

My hobby now is reading, and sometimes I go to the gym. Even in war we have had a gym I can walk to. Sometimes I feel guilty exercising there. I generally have a lot of time alone. It’s just that the environment around me is difficult. For example, 37 minutes ago the light went off. It will be turned back on after about 6 hours perhaps.

2

The lights are turned off most often randomly. It all depends on whether the missiles hit critical infrastructure. If everything is calm, then the lights are on more often. Recently there is not so much water.

But the frequent turning off of the light interferes with working from home. Some people buy generators or some things that help make electricity. But they are too expensive for me. So I am just content with what I have.

If you compare here with the eastern part, there is not so much danger. But the consequences are there. Missiles were shot down near my place. Once a week I see rockets fly by.

The eastern part suffered the most. Very much. People survived hell. I like to help, I helped as much as I could. I collected things for the military, donated to the army, wove protective nets, etc.

We liberated Kharkiv region and part of Kherson region. We are moving forward. We will win.

That was moving @MMBaranova Just an ordinary person trying to survive. Oh let Ukraine win soon .... let the govts give it what it needs to win.

Politico is reporting on the next military aid package to be announced Friday at the Ramstein meeting.

U.S. prepping major military package for Ukraine - Friday’s announcement is expected to include Stryker vehicles, but not tanks.

Here's the big news:

The package will likely include a number of Strykers, an eight-wheeled armored fighting vehicle built by General Dynamics Land Systems, as well as ground-launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of roughly 100 miles, two of the people said. POLITICO first reported last week that the Pentagon was considering sending Strykers in the upcoming tranche of aid. Reuters first reported that Boeing-made Small Diameter Bombs were under discussion.

The GLSDBs are existing munitions that can be mounted on old HIMARS rockets but with longer range as they glide to the target after the rocket motor burns out. It's a 200 pound explosive warhead with about double the range of the HIMARS missiles in use now and the same level of precision targeting. This will put lots of high-value Russian targets in range, anything in occupied Ukraine, including most of Crimea.

Here's a video that shows how it would work.

twitter.com/i/status/1615784277978791937

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech commemorating the siege of Leningrad continued to illustrate that Putin remains uncertain about his ability to significantly shape the Russian information space.

Putin’s speech is likely part of a larger informational effort to wrap the "special military operation" inside the greater Russian national mythos of the Great Patriotic War (the Second World War) to increase Russian support for a protracted war and mobilization.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov augmented these efforts to increase Russian support for a protracted war by explicitly and ludicrously claiming that Ukraine and the West are pursuing the genocide of the Russian people.

Putin continues efforts to reinvigorate Russia’s defense industrial base to support a protracted war in Ukraine.

Putin and Lavrov continue to deny Ukrainian sovereignty and outright reject direct negotiations with Ukraine.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is becoming increasingly bold in his verbal attacks against the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin.

Prigozhin and other notable voices in Russia are carving out a new space to criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin without fear of retribution.

Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions near Kreminna.

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Soledar, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

The Russian MoD continues to attempt to downplay the role of the Wagner Group in claimed tactical advances in the Soledar area.

Ukrainian officials have indicated that Russian forces are concentrating in Zaporizhia Oblast, possibly for a large defensive or offensive effort.

Russian forces’ increasing use of incendiary munitions to conduct what appear to be otherwise routine strikes in southern Ukraine supports ISW’s recent assessment that Russian forces likely face a shortage of conventional artillery rounds.

Ukrainian and Russian sources continued to indicate that Russian authorities are likely preparing for a second wave of mobilization.