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Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

997 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2023 15:52

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

OP posts:
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129
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/01/2023 09:30

I am really wondering if Putin has lost control here. Prigozhin's attacks and empire building are becoming stronger and stronger.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/01/2023 09:35

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️British intelligence: Russian forces control Soledar. (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/british-intelligence-russian-forces-control-soledar)
Russian forces backed by Kremlin-controlled Wagner Group mercenaries are likely in control of Soledar as of late Jan. 16, British intelligence stated.

⚡️Ukrenergo: Emergency power shutdowns (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrenergo-emergency-power-shutdowns-continue-in-8-regions-significant-power-shortage-remains) continue in 8 regions, significant power shortage remains.

⚡️Police clarify number of casualties (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/police-clarify-number-of-casualties-in-brovary-helicopter-crash-14-killed-including-1-children) in Brovary helicopter crash: 16 killed, including 3 children.

⚡️Latvia announces (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/latvia-announces-new-military-aid-for-ukraine) new military aid for Ukraine.
The package will include Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems, helicopters, machine guns with ammunition, and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Police chief Klymenko appointed acting interior minister following death of Monastyrsky. (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/police-chief-klymenko-appointed-acting-interior-minister-following-death-of-monastyrsky)

⚡️Canada to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/canada-to-provide-200-armored-personnel-carriers-to-ukraine) 200 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.

⚡️European Parliament urges (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/european-parliament-urges-germany-to-give-leopard-2-tanks-to-ukraine) Germany to give Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

⚡️ Scholz on Leopard 2 tanks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/scholz-on-leopard-2-tanks-to-ukraine-we-must-avoid-russia-nato-war) to Ukraine: ‘We must avoid Russia-NATO war.’

⚡️ AP: US to allocate (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ap-us-to-allocate-125-million-to-help-ukraine-fix-energy-grid) $125 million to help Ukraine fix energy grid.

⚡️CNN: US to announce $2.5 billion (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-us-to-announce-2-5-billion-in-military-aid-to-ukraine) in military aid to Ukraine.
The United States is reportedly finalizing a $2.5 billion military aid package to Ukraine, including Stryker combat vehicles, in “one of its largest” military aid packages to Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February of last year, CNN reported, citing two undisclosed U.S. officials.

The next major U.S. military package to be announced on Jan. 20 for Ukraine may not include American M1 Abrams tanks, according to three undisclosed U.S. officials cited by Politico.

⚡️New York Times: US warms (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/new-york-times-us-warms-to-helping-ukraine-regain-crimea) to helping Ukraine regain Crimea.
Following discussions with Ukrainian officials, the Biden administration has come around to the idea that Ukraine may need the military equipment to strike Russian-occupied Crimea, regardless of the risks such a move entails, the New York Times reported, citing several unnamed U.S. officials.

⚡️Reuters: Germany will green light (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-germany-will-green-light-leopard-tanks-if-us-sends-ukraine-its-abrams) Leopard tanks if US sends Ukraine its Abrams.
Germany will give the go-ahead for German-made Leopard tanks to be sent to Ukraine if the United States agrees to send its own Abrams tanks, a government official told Reuters.

⚡️ European Council President Charles Michel en route to Kyiv (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/european-council-president-going-to-kyiv-on-jan-19).
Michel is on his way to Kyiv to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, and members of the Ukrainian parliament, he said in a video published on Twitter on the morning of Jan. 19.

The fighting is still fierce clearly

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/01/2023 09:47

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The EU is considering a fourth package of sanctions against Iran for supporting Russia, — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

Poland expects to deliver up to 100 Western tanks to Ukraine together with its allies, said Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki.

War in Ukraine casts doubt on Putin's ties to Serbian president, – Bloomberg
The publication reports that Serbia is the closest ally of the Russian Federation in Europe, but this country is now trying to keep its distance since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. So, in an interview, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić rejected Putin's territorial claims in Ukraine, saying that the worst is yet to come.
At the same time, Vučić, who has had many meetings with Putin in recent years, said that he had not communicated with his Russian counterpart for many months.
“We said from the very beginning that we cannot and will not be able to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For us, Crimea is Ukraine. Donbas is Ukraine. It will remain so,” the President's residence quotes the Serbian leader.

Negotiations with Zelenskyy on his initiative are out of the question, – Lavrov
Russian Foreign Minister called Zelenskyy's plan for a peaceful settlement of the war between Russia and Ukraine "ridiculous."

The IAEA mission begins work at the Chornobyl NPP, said Rafael Grossi.

More than half of all energy facilities damaged in Ukraine, – Prime Minister Shmyhal
According to him, about 160,000 infrastructure facilities and residential buildings also require restoration, and losses reach "hundreds of billions of dollars."

⚡️Lithuania among the EU countries delivered the most generators and transformers to Ukraine, – Delfi
Non-governmental organizations and energy companies donated 824 generators and 267 transformers to Ukraine.

President Zelenskyy spoke at the forum in Davos via video

Ukraine "exports" Diia: the US will develop its own "documents in a smartphone" based on the Ukrainian application

Tomorrow, Sweden will announce the supply of Archer self-propelled guns to Ukraine, — Expressen

Ukraine seeks to expand the "grain agreement" through the supply of steel, First Deputy Prime Minister, Head of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko said in an interview with Bloomberg

Ukraine needs not only tanks but also air defense systems, armored vehicles, and ammunition, – NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in an interview with Reuters in Davos

Russia is transferring troops to Belarus covertly in railway tanks. This is reported by the Belarusian edition "Nasha Niva"
On December 29, the General Staff of the Armed Forces reported that there were half as many Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine as it was on February 24. There may be more troops in Belarus, the newspaper emphasizes.

❗️ The UK will send more than 200 armored vehicles to Ukraine in addition to 14 Challenger 2 tanks, — British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly at a joint press conference with his Canadian counterpart Melanie Joly.

“We are no longer dependent on Russian energy, this is just one example of a change in German policy,” — German Economics Minister Christian Lindner told the BBC

⚡️OSINT analyst Def Mon calculated the effective range of GLSDB missiles
If Ukraine gets these missiles, the situation at the front will change very well.
Thus, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to reach targets on the territory of the entire mainland of occupied Ukraine, and will also be able to hit the north of Crimea and the border territory of Russia itself.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
notimagain · 19/01/2023 09:52

Germany will give the go-ahead for German-made Leopard tanks to be sent to Ukraine if the United States agrees to send its own Abrams tanks, a government official told Reuters.

What a surprise...putting this politely (some elsewhere haven't)

"Don't want to be first with armour" - France announces provision of light armour (AMX...)

"Oh" says Chancellor Scholz.

"Don't want to be first with MBTs" - UK announces CR2...

"Oh Oh says Chancellor Scholz..." I need another excuse, quick.....Ah... I'll say I need the US to supply Abrams first"..

TBH I wouldn't rely on Chancellor Scholz allowing donation/relaxation of EULs etc of Leopard 2 even if the US donated all it's Abrams...

Tomorrow/next few days are going to be very interesting..

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/01/2023 09:56

and the political atmosphere towards that lawyer are going to be interesting too ....

Live:Ukraine Telegram

🇧🇬 Bulgaria secretly supported Ukraine with ammunition and fuel, providing a third of the Ukrainian army's needs in the first six months of Russia's full-scale invasion, Welt journalists have learned. According to the publication, ammunition and weapons were delivered to Ukraine through intermediaries [there are a lot of pro-Russian people in Bulgaria and Romania, so this was done quietly]

and last and admittedly least, ducks encountering snow for the first time. They waddled around uncertainly for a few minutes then headed back into their pen with determination

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/01/2023 09:58

Ah - Jacinda Ahern, PM of New Zealand, is resigning. She's been 6 years in post and is running on empty, she says.

Igotjelly · 19/01/2023 09:59

Aww @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar they're so big! Proper duckies now!

Alexandra2001 · 19/01/2023 10:13

notimagain · 19/01/2023 09:52

Germany will give the go-ahead for German-made Leopard tanks to be sent to Ukraine if the United States agrees to send its own Abrams tanks, a government official told Reuters.

What a surprise...putting this politely (some elsewhere haven't)

"Don't want to be first with armour" - France announces provision of light armour (AMX...)

"Oh" says Chancellor Scholz.

"Don't want to be first with MBTs" - UK announces CR2...

"Oh Oh says Chancellor Scholz..." I need another excuse, quick.....Ah... I'll say I need the US to supply Abrams first"..

TBH I wouldn't rely on Chancellor Scholz allowing donation/relaxation of EULs etc of Leopard 2 even if the US donated all it's Abrams...

Tomorrow/next few days are going to be very interesting..

This is exactly what i meant when i said "have we really not grasped what is at stake here"
Thank God the USA has been on side here.

I understand the fears of a full NATO Russian war but Russian doesn't want that at all.. but equally hamstringing the Ukrainians only strengthens Putins hand.

You d know this but isn't the M1 tank very complex and takes a lot of training? much more so than other NATO tanks... i just remember reading something about this years ago.

notimagain · 19/01/2023 10:22

@Alexandra2001

This is exactly what i meant when i said "have we really not grasped what is at stake here"
Thank God the USA has been on side here.

Yep..I have to say Chancellor Scholz's behaviour is beginning to give credence to some of the more ugly rumours about his motives.

No idea of the relative difficulties of operating M1 vs CR 2 vs Leopard, that's one for our American correspondent.

Unconfirmed reports from some European sources this AM that France is considering supplying some LeClerc MBTs, can't find anything to verify those reports closer to home - that might just be rhetoric in an attempt to up the pressure on Chancellor Scholz.

Wonder how long he's going to need to get the splinters out of his backside once all this is over?

blueshoes · 19/01/2023 11:19

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar I believe your fellas are now ready. You can proceed to release the ducks of war against that no-good feet-dragging turncoat Scholz.😠

blueshoes · 19/01/2023 11:49

MissConductUS · 19/01/2023 00:54

Here's a video that shows how it would work.

twitter.com/i/status/1615784277978791937

That will do 😆Great CGI.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/01/2023 12:00

blueshoes · 19/01/2023 11:19

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar I believe your fellas are now ready. You can proceed to release the ducks of war against that no-good feet-dragging turncoat Scholz.😠

My ducks are far too good for the likes of him.

Although given the amount they defecate, I might let them point their fluffy bums at him.

Natsku · 19/01/2023 14:20

Oh the ducks!!

MissConductUS · 19/01/2023 14:30

blueshoes · 19/01/2023 11:49

That will do 😆Great CGI.

I recall posting a few months ago regarding the ability to fit the GLSDB to the older M26 missiles for use by Ukraine. It seems that Boeing or Saab has used that time to create the hardware necessary to do so. I think that this is being offered in place of ATACMS. I think it's a smart compromise. We have something like 20,000 GLSDBs in the locker while the supply of ATACMS is much more limited.

While the range is shorter than ATACMS, they have an advantage. ATACMS is ballistic, i.e. it follows a direct path to the target. In the glide phase, the GLSDB is self-steering and can follow a variable flight path. It can therefore be flown into an entrance to a bunker or a trench that is located on the back side of the fortification, as they usually are. That would be very useful in an offensive.

MissConductUS · 19/01/2023 14:51

No idea of the relative difficulties of operating M1 vs CR 2 vs Leopard, that's one for our American correspondent.

At least this wasn't a hospital pass. 😃

The big problem with the Abrams is that it uses a turbine engine, just like a jet aircraft, and it burns jet fuel at the prodigious rate of three gallons per mile. Back of the envelope, let's say 200 tanks that travel 50 miles a day which works out to 30,000 gallons of fuel per day. It's unlikely that the Ukrainian Army has the turbine mechanics to maintain them or can supply that much jet fuel to the battlefield.

Various European countries have roughly 2,000 operational Leopards and full stocks of spare parts with maintenance facilities in Poland and Germany. And they use diesel fuel, which Ukraine has plenty of. There's no point in supplying tanks the Ukrainians can't fuel and repair.

Fun fact about the Abrams - the turbine engine is exceptionally quiet. You can hear a diesel tank a half mile away. You wouldn't hear an Abrams until it was almost on top of you. This is a significant tactical advantage when you're on the offensive.

One final thought about the GLSDBs. If Ukraine gets them in large numbers, it will blunt any Russian offensive operation. Russia can't go on the offensive without creating large groupings of men and equipment near the battlefield. Recall what happened in Makiivka. Due to its range and precision, the GLSDB would inhibit its ability to do so.

Alexandra2001 · 19/01/2023 15:08

I believe Abrams can use any fuel, inc Diesel.

European countries have 2000 operational Leopards, with full spares back up?

MissConductUS · 19/01/2023 15:38

Alexandra2001 · 19/01/2023 15:08

I believe Abrams can use any fuel, inc Diesel.

European countries have 2000 operational Leopards, with full spares back up?

You're right, the Abrams is multifuel capable. The US Army supplies jet fuel for it, so my assumption was that that was the standard.

According to the NYT there are over 3,000 Leopards in Western Europe and North America. I don't know why they included North American. The US has none, and Canada has about 100.

Britain pledges just 14 tanks, but with the aim of prompting more transfers from Ukraine’s allies.

Some British lawmakers are frustrated that other countries have yet to follow suit. “The reason why we’re doing it is to provide political leadership and political cover, so that other countries will send their tanks as well,” Bob Seely, a Conservative Party lawmaker, told GB News. “And, primarily, this is about sending German Leopard tanks, of which there are over 3,000 in Western Europe and North America.”

notimagain · 19/01/2023 15:47

You're right, the Abrams is multifuel capable. The US Army supplies jet fuel for it, so my assumption was that that was the standard.

FWIW as a general point there are a few gas turbine engines around that are multifuel capable, but there may be tweaks to settings involved when you change fuel options and there may be restrictions on how long you can run on a non-optimal fuel.

Alexandra2001 · 19/01/2023 20:08

Poland has 250 leopards, if they are like the UK, then they have 2/3rd .. ish operational, Germany 350... (who knows how many work..) i find it hard to believe there are 3000 working and ready to go Leopards in Europe... who would have so many more?

Haven't the makers already confirmed they have no spares to get suitable numbers up and running for Ukraine? similar to why the UK can't send more.

Aside, why are tanks considered such a provocation for Putin, when Himars, Patriot etc etc and 155mm artillery isn't?

notimagain · 19/01/2023 20:20

why are tanks considered such a provocation for Putin, when Himars, Patriot etc etc and 155mm artillery isn't?

I suppose the simple (but probably wrong) answer is tanks - with infantry support - can be the spearhead of an attack that take potentially ground relatively quickly.

Himars, artillery not so much, if at all, and Patriot is purely defensive.

notimagain · 19/01/2023 20:28

Himars, artillery not so much, if at all,

By which I mean not in the actual spearhead, but they may well be very close behind, providing support.

MissConductUS · 19/01/2023 20:30

I don't know why the fixation is on the total number of Leopards in Europe. Ukraine is only asking for 300 tanks. If Western Europe can't spare 300 of them the situation is truly dire.

Ukraine's top general outlines 'urgent needs' in talks with U.S. military chief

KYIV, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Ukraine's top general said he had outlined the "urgent needs" of his armed forces on Tuesday at a first personal meeting with the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, in Poland.

Ukraine is pushing to secure a fleet of modern battle tanks from Western countries that it hopes to use to drive out Russian forces which invaded last February, capturing swathes of territory in the south and east.

"I outlined the urgent needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the fulfilment of which will accelerate our Victory," General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi wrote in a statement on Telegram.

In an interview with the Economist in December, Zaluzhnyi said he needed 300 tanks, 600-700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 howitzers to help his forces push back the invaders.

"I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources," he said.
Latest Updates

MissConductUS · 19/01/2023 20:43

As to who has them, there's this.

Ukraine Is Getting British Tanks. What Its Military Really Needs Is German Leopard 2s

The German Leopard 2

Germany first made Leopards during the Cold War and now thousands exist across militaries. They are used by 13 European armies, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations: Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey.

If these tanks are made available to Ukraine, they wouldn’t only need to rely on Germany for supplies and maintenance, Williams says: “Other countries could also theoretically contribute parts and ammunition as well.”

The German Leopard 2 has two major advantages. “One is that it’s a technology that’s familiar to Ukrainians; it uses a diesel gas turbine engine. The other one is that there are lots of them out there,” Cancian says.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/01/2023 22:38

HInts that a decision has been made over the German leopards, which 'will be made public in the next few days'

mids2019 · 19/01/2023 23:12

@MissConductUS

Thank you for your knowledgeable reply.

If we are to supply tanks and similar weaponry to Ukraine would the weaponry be slowly built up so that there would be a time for a major decisive operation which would result in a swift capitulation in Russian forces?

from my very limited knowledge of warfare a massive definitive operation seems to an the way to victory (e.g. Operation Overlord, Desert Storm, Blitzkrieg). Without a massive co ordinated strike do you face the danger of a prolonged war of attrition and the consequent calls for some peace to end it (e.g. WW1, Syria, Lebanon)?

my concern would be that advanced weaponry drip fed may not make the overwhelming difference necessary for an unambiguous victory for Ukraine. I think what is missing is obviously air power for the Ukrainians and therefore you are putting a lot of focus on mobile tanks to break through enemy lines on their own.