Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

[MagicFox]

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

Switzerland has begun work on a reform that would allow some countries to export Swiss-made munitions to Ukraine after international criticism of its restrictive arms export law, reports NZZ am Sonntag.~ [Hope this is true!!!!]

It seems this publication is a tabloid so it might very well be clickbait :/

Total aside but I was watching the new series of Vikings Valhalla on Netflix last night and they were sailing off down the Dnipro river. Made me smile to see something set in Ukraine but not in the context of this horrid war.

Of course, "running out" is a relative term. Their stocks are lower than at the start of the war for sure, but they are not exhausted and they are able to replenish some models at least, and buy in drones etc from Iran to supplement.

It just means they have to be more choosy with their targets, reduce their rate of fire, and substitute in less accurate methods of attrition (firing S300 SAM missiles in their less accurate ground attack role for example) rather than stop firing them altogether.

The KH-22 missile used in the attack on Dnipro is an anti-ship missile designed to carry a nuclear warhead, so it not a precision weapon. It's telling that they're digging this deep in the locker.

A former high-ranking member of the Russian private military contractor Wagner Group, has sought asylum in Norway.

apnews.com/article/europe-russia-government-norway-asylum-6a427312ad96ad5398c8a4a03fd7b128

Late check in, still reading, thanks all!

There's a story there. I wonder why he left. He must have seen and committed a lot of horrors.

Beware of ex-Very Senior Officers popping up on TV/in the MSM making populist comments things they would have never have said when in post......🙄

Way I understand it from discussion elsewhere is it's all a bit deceptive; yes, on paper UK has lots of CR2s.....however that large overall number is split into roughly three tranches :

You have the operational tranche - CR2s actually kept up and running ( and it's not that many by all accounts) on a pretty much daily basis to ensure the British Army can meet whatever it's commitments are required by UK Gov/NATO.

You have a tranche of > 100 set aside somewhere for the CR 3 upgrade...probably mothballed in a way that it might take some time to reactivate them as CR2s, if that's possible.

Finally you have a sad looking tranche, the large number of CR2s that are parked up, level of routine maintenance unknown but possibly not a lot and in all probability having parts robbed from them to keep the operational tranche running.

If Ukraine are to be given operational CR2s quickly then they'll have to be pulled from the Army's operational tranche and by doing that there's a risk of downgrading the capability of the heavy armour element of UK armed forces....that's quite possibly why 12 is all the politicians are willing to donate, at least short term.

Similar logic might apply with regard to the AS-90 delivery.

It's the "same old same old" that I recall from my time in the UK military: at times it looks like the UK has large numbers of tanks/aircraft/guns to spare, but the reality is that often you only just have enough actually operational on any given day to meet whatever readiness requirements are laid down by Westminster and/or SACEUR or whoever...

The Ukrainian air defense troops have arrived at Fort Sill, Oklahoma to start training on the Patriot system.

mobile.twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1614806690897211397

Those soldiers are going to get some seriously good Barbeque for dinner tonight.

Ditto what @notimagain said. Even the operational gear breaks down in normal use and has to be hauled away for repair. Especially anything with tracks.

Dannatte isn't exactly my cup of tea but whilst it may well be the British would be short of tanks.. we don't actually need them right now.. the Ukrainians do.

So send the Ukrainians 50 tanks and at the same time do up our spares, if thats required to get stocks back up....

Perhaps the real question (for another day) is why the UK is so short of equipment.

Ukraine is fighting the Russians for us, we need to give them what they need in advance of when they need it... not what we did with AA missile systems... they will be suffering months of destruction & death because "oh it'll take to long to train/we'll upset Putin"

Patriot wont be deployed for weeks/months.. we are way behind the curve.

Checking in. Thank you for all of the amazing contributions.

@Alexandra2001

Stand by for long post..

Dannatte isn't exactly my cup of tea but whilst it may well be the British would be short of tanks.. we don't actually need them right now.. the Ukrainians do.
So send the Ukrainians 50 tanks and at the same time do up our spares, if thats required to get stocks back up....

That's a fair question, I've seen it debated elsewhere at length, and I agree there is some merit to the idea that since "we" don't need them now give Ukraine as many as they can handle.

One blocker might be finding a PM who is willing to front up to the British people and say "we've sent all our tanks"...

As for doing the spares up, you might need lots spares for that (according to some reports) - how easy are they to get hold of? Maybe sacrifice some of the CR3 hulls (designate) - where does that leave the UK army 10-15 years down the road?

Perhaps the real question (for another day) is why the UK is so short of equipment

No mystery - in no particular order politicians, budgets, treasury, popularity or not on spending on defence...

not what we did with AA missile systems... they will be suffering months of destruction & death because "oh it'll take to long to train/we'll upset Putin

TBF the west in general was pouring appropriate munitions various in before the invasion (Javelin, MLAW), as far as AA goes smaller SAMS such as Starstreak, Stinger etc went into theatre within weeks of the invasion (if not before).

Medium/longish range systems such NASAAMS, Aspide, Crotale and IRIS-T have also now been delivered.

Patriot wont be deployed for weeks/months.. we are way behind the curve.

Leaving aside training needed there are some genuine political and I suspect security related reasons as to why Patriot hasn't arrived yet..and it has to be said Patriot isn't going to be a magic bullet, suddenly causing all attacks to be thwarted...we need to manage expectations a bit when it comes to that system. It's very useful addition to what's left of the S-300 arsenal and better than it in some areas, but it's not going to provide an impervious layer of defence

TBH looking at the numbers coming out in public now about the number of missiles/drones shot down it looks to me as if the medium range system mentioned above, plus quite probably guns are doing a very credible job....but I know that's no consolation to the victims of missiles or drones that get through.

There are lots of tweets floating about from Ukraine that their current air defence systems can’t shield them from the missiles used in Dnipro. Isn’t that a risky strategy to publicly let Russia know what they can’t defend against?

Morning...

If by "defend" people are expecting every single missile fired by the Russians to be intercepted then sadly that's not going to happen, (with or without Patriot)...and that means as long as the war continues there's the danger of a single missile causing the sort of loss of life we saw a couple of days ago.

I'm not sure the tweets you refer to will tell the Russians anything significant TBH, they will know some of their missiles were engaged, they also know some obviously weren't.

www.bbc.com/sport/football/64288859

Shakhtar Donetsk president Rinat Akhmetov has pledged to donate £22m to the Ukrainian war effort following the transfer of Mykhailo Mudryk to Chelsea. The Premier League side signed Mudryk from Shakhtar on Sunday in a deal worth up to £89m, a transfer record for Ukrainian football.

Very distressing report by Times of Israel about sexual violence and exploitation towards some Ukrainian refugees in Israel.

www.timesofisrael.com/raped-abused-exploited-ukrainian-women-seeking-refuge-in-israel-find-no-haven/

@dibly

Just to add a further comment about whether the tweets you mentioned breached some aspect of security - it might be worth bearing in mind they were in line with this comment carried by Forbes from a Ukraine senior officer commenting on the difficulty of defending against this type of missile (Kh-22). I'm not sure some of what he said is completely accurate, but that doesn't matter - what does matter is what was said (both by the senior officer and in the tweets) certainly keeps up the pressure on the west to supply certain systems:

"“One of the Kh-22 missiles, launched from the Kursk region, [Russia], around 3 p.m., hit a high-rise building in the city of Dnipro (via Naberezhna Peremogy St.),” the official statement of Mykola Oleshchuk, Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, said shortly after the attack. “Armed Forces of Ukraine have no weapons capable of shooting down this type of missile. Since the beginning of Russia's military aggression, more than 210 missiles of this type have been launched on the territory of Ukraine. Not one was shot down by means of anti-aircraft defense.” According to General Oleshchuk, only anti-aircraft missile systems of Patriot PAC-3 or SAMP-T kinds possess the capacity to intercept such air targets. He added that strongly believes West partners won’t delay their swift supply to Ukraine."

www.forbes.com/sites/katyasoldak/2023/01/15/sunday-january-15-russias-war-on-ukraine-daily-news-and-information-from-ukraine/?sh=1533fcc0534d

Ironic that Chelsea are involved in funding both sides of this war......

Thanks @notimagain thats helpful context. I’m still not sure I’d want to be so vocal about the vulnerability to these missiles on Twitter.

@notimagain I'm sure we have more than 50 tanks but 14? on a battle front 100s of km long... i just hope that they make a difference and that other countries, promise far more Leopards.. then there is the training lag.. about 10 weeks.
A PM doesn't need to say anything about operational tank numbers, just send what is required and quietly get on with replacing them.

No Patriot is not a magic bullet but it was talked about many months ago and the argument made then was "it will take too long to train/too expensive" had the USA started that training back in the summer, less missiles would be hitting their "targets"

I believe the official time to train on Patriot is 12months? the Ukrainians have proven they can be trained far more quickly but we are still talking 4 to 6 months.

Sky showed yesterday how much the Europeans have spent on just military hardware sent to Ukraine so far - Germany 2.1bn, UK 1.8bn... have we really not grasped what is at stake here?

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-16-2023
Key Takeaways

The Kremlin continues to challenge Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s claims that only Wagner forces seized Soledar, Donetsk Oblast.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov possibly indirectly accused Prigozhin of deliberately exposing the conflict between the Russian MoD and Wagner in the Russian information space.

Prigozhin continued his efforts to undermine faith in the Russian MoD and Putin-aligned actors.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the Russo-Ukrainian War is in a “decisive phase," which does not entail that the war is in its final phase or that Russian forces are planning to employ all resources in impending actions.

A prominent milblogger revived pre-February 2022 discussions of Kremlin intent to return close Putin ally Viktor Medvedchuk to power in Ukraine.

The appointment of Russian Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov as theater commander of Russian forces in Ukraine notably did not spark a significant wave of criticism within the Russian nationalist milblogger discourse.

Russian forces continued to launch localized assaults to regain lost positions around Svatove and in the Kupyansk direction as Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations around Kreminna.

Russian forces made additional territorial gains north of Bakhmut and may be intensifying attacks south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka.

Russian forces continued ground attacks near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.

Russian forces continued efforts to accumulate manpower in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast and to develop new logistic routes between Russia and southern Ukraine.

Low discipline among Russian forces continues to directly endanger Russian soldiers and limit force effectiveness.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Bloomberg: Allies have provided (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-allies-have-provided-ukraine-with-over-4-000-weapon-systems-since-feb-24-2022) Ukraine with over 4,000 weapon systems since Feb. 24, 2022.
So far, Ukraine has received 410 Soviet-era tanks; 300 infantry fighting vehicles, of which 250 are Soviet designed; 1,100 armored personnel carriers; 925 mine-resistant ambush protected vehicles; over 1,540 infantry mobility vehicles; 300 towed howitzers; 95 multiple rocket launchers, and over 59 air defense systems, according to Bloomberg.

⚡️Canadian minister: NASAMS will be shipped (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/canadian-minister-nasams-will-be-shipped-to-ukraine-as-soon-as-possible) to Ukraine as soon as possible.

⚡️ General Staff: Russia offers (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russia-offers-citizenship-to-foreigners-in-exchange-for-enlisting-in-army) citizenship to foreigners in exchange for enlisting in army.

Oleg Sukhov: What should be done to
(kyivindependent.com/opinion/oleg-sukhov-what-should-be-done-to-ensure-ukraines-victory-in-2023)ensure (kyivindependent.com/opinion/oleg-sukhov-what-should-be-done-to-ensure-ukraines-victory-in-2023) Ukraine's victory in 2023
(kyivindependent.com/opinion/oleg-sukhov-what-should-be-done-to-ensure-ukraines-victory-in-2023)
The West should abandon the policy of having its cake and eating it too – i.e. helping Ukraine sufficiently to prevent its collapse but not enough to ensure its victory.

⚡️ Intelligence: Putin orders (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/intelligence-putin-orders-new-commander-to-seize-donbas-by-march) new commander to seize Donbas by March.
Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the new commander of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Valeriy Gerasimov, to seize Donbas, reported the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate spokesperson Andriy Yusov.

⚡️ Official: Collaborator killed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-collaborator-killed-in-occupied-zaporizhzhia-oblast) in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Oleksii Kichyhin, the head of the illegal Russian-installed occupying authorities in Ukraine’s Berdiansk, was killed in an explosion, the head of Berdiansk’s city military administration, Viktoria Halitsyna, told Suspilne media outlet.

⚡️NYT: The US begins training (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nyt-the-us-begins-training-in-germany-and-oklahoma-for-ukrainian-soldiers) in Germany and Oklahoma for Ukrainian soldiers.

⚡️Child's body found (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/childs-body-found-in-rubble-of-dnipro-apartment-block-bring-death-toll-to-41) in rubble of Dnipro apartment block, bringing death toll to 41.
As of Jan. 17, 41 people, including four children are known to have been killed. A total of 79 people, including children, have suffered injuries, while 39 people, including six children have been so far rescued by first responders.

Losses not reported yet.

Wash Post Telegram

Former Russian president says Japanese leader should disembowel himself
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/15/medvedev-kishida-disembowelment-russia-japan/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and a senior security official in President Vladimir Putin’s administration, said Saturday that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida should perform a ritualistic suicide by disembowelment to repent for what Medvedev called servitude to the United States. [civilized folk in Russia aren't they?]

- U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with officials from roughly 50 nations on Thursday in Germany. “We are focused on doing everything we can to help make sure that the Ukrainians have the capabilities that they need to be successful in their efforts to defend their sovereign territory,” Austin said last week.

A joint military exercise involving Russia and Belarus kicked off Monday, the Belarusian Defense Ministry said. It is expected to last until Feb. 1.

Conquer all of Donbas by March? Wow, Putin's objectives have shrunk since last year.

From a Western viewpoint, the beauty (and frustration)is that we can see in real-time what Ukraine is suffering and commentators second-guessing our every move. What we can't see is the damage Russia is absorbing from population losses to economic damage. TBF, I don't think even Russia knows at this stage.

UNITED24 Telegram

Ukraine handed over to Russia a list with the names of 800 seriously wounded soldiers with the demand to return them unconditionally, as required by the Geneva Convention. [and that doesn't mean as piles of ash, a la Olenivka]

Ukraine and the EU signed a Memorandum on the provision of EUR 18 billion of macro-financial assistance in 2023. This week Ukraine will receive 3 billion euros - Prime Minister Shmyhal said

Germany has started deploying Patriot air defense systems to Poland - Der Spiegel.
They will cover the logistics point where military aid to Ukraine is collected.

The EU regards the missile attack on a residential high-rise building in Dnipro as a sign of escalation on the part of the Kremlin and is discussing its possible response to it, EU spokesman Peter Stano said.

Reznikov to meet Stoltenberg on the sidelines of Ramstein - NATO press release.
The Secretary General will hold bilateral meetings with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov and other senior officials.

The Czech Republic will hold the second round of presidential elections in less than two weeks, with two candidates: former NATO General Petr Pavel and former Prime Minister, leader of the largest opposition party ANO Andrej Babiš.The latter has launched a manipulative campaign - Babiš has put up billboards across the country promising "not to drag the Czech Republic into war" because "he is a diplomat, not a military man".
While Pavel advocates further assistance to Ukraine in its war against Russia, Babiš calls for a "peace summit" to be convened soon.
On the eve of the elections, manipulative reports are spreading online that Pavel, if elected, is going to declare mobilization and send Czechs to the Ukrainian front to fight against the Russians. Pavel himself emphasizes a coordinated approach with NATO allies on the issue of Russian aggression in Ukraine.

The Ministry of Digital Transformation has handed over 83 drones to the military in Bakhmut
The drones were purchased with funds raised under the Army of Drones project. Dozens of Starlink systems were also handed over to the Ukrainian military.

Russians are moving large reserves to the direction of Kreminna in Luhansk region, sending there paratroopers, personnel units and a number of others. This was stated by the head of Luhansk Regional Military Administration Serhiy Haidai.

Zelensky survives more than 12 assassination attempts since Russian invasion - The Independent

PMC Wagner using Ukrainian uniforms with no markings in Soledar

An Ukrainian drone takes a Russian radio communication system from the battlefield, which allowed the Ukrainian unit to listen to Russian communications for 9 days.

Russia has deployed six missile carriers with an almost record number of "Calibers" to the Black Sea - the total salvo is up to 44 missiles

Huge personnel losses again.