Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

[MagicFox]

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

@Alexandra2001

A PM doesn't need to say anything about operational tank numbers

Maybe

...quietly get on with replacing them.

It's very rare that anything involving MoD and the Treasury can be done quietly, the last time I can recall funding/provision for a defence related project being done so quietly it took years to get into the public domain was Chevaline, and that was associated with something that unlike an MBT was easy to hide from the public.

FWIW many are worried that in the current financial climate once the assets (tanks, SPGs) are gone from the UK inventory the Treasury will baulk at providing the funds for replacement, OTOH some see this as an opportunity for MoD to pressurise the Treasury into actually providing funds to allow the Uk army to rapidly get upgraded equipment......stand by for arguments in Westminster.

No Patriot is not a magic bullet but it was talked about many months ago and the argument made then was "it will take too long to train/too expensive" had the USA started that training back in the summer, less missiles would be hitting their "targets"

Maybe....the training time scales got discussed way back on probably thread <9. if the US had started training back in summer and run people through an abbreviated course you might, just, by now be seeing the odd battery in theatre by 100% manned by Ukrainian personnel.

There's also a whole other issues involved here such as working out how many batteries can genuinely be spared given other threats, commitments and traty obligations world wide.

I'd also put money that at least some discussion, work and trials will have needed to be done to ensure some aspects of the system don't become known to the Russians or fall into their hands (FWIW there were similar worries about some aspects of CR2)

Overall I really do accept that it would have been great if Patriot could have been provided earlier, like you I'm sure fewer Russian missiles would be getting through. OTOH I also think it would be very wrong to assume that the West/US appear to have been tardy in providing Patriot because the West/US didn't understand the urgency...

I think defence spending and the Ukraine war are one of the reasons Ben Wallace stuck so tenaciously to his post through the Cabinet merry-go-round we experienced last year.

Whether it gets anywhere with the Treasury in the next round of budgets is another question entirely. Public support helps, as does the argument it's a lot cheaper to do it now than wait for Ukraine to be absorbed.

Gaah that was Live: Ukraine above. sorry for the inaccuracy.

Now UNITED24 Telegram.

It is necessary to purchase Gepard anti-aircraft systems in Qatar and transfer them to Ukraine, — member of the German Bundestag Roderich Kiesewetter

The Russians are increasing the pace of deportation of Ukrainians from the temporarily occupied territories, for this they deliberately create unbearable living conditions there, — National Resistance Center
People are being deported from the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions to the Voronezh, Sverdlovsk, Kursk, Rostov regions and the Krasnodar Territory of the Russian Federation. There they are kept in unsanitary conditions in abandoned sanatoriums and hostels.
In order to force Ukrainians to leave their homes, the Russians in the temporarily occupied settlements stop the work of social institutions and intensify shelling to make the life of local residents unbearable.

The mayor of Dnipro said that 236 apartments were completely destroyed in the high-rise building damaged by the Russian missile.

Russia has manufactured the first ammunition for the Poseidon nuclear torpedo, which will receive the nuclear submarine Belgorod, – Russian media
Propagandists claim that the Poseidon, in the event of an explosion, is capable of causing large-scale tsunamis that can destroy the coastal cities of Great Britain or the United States. [they seem to forget that Russia too has nuclear missiles aimed at it]

⚡️ British Defense Minister Ben Wallace announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, which includes:

▫️"Challenger 2" tank squadron;

▫️8 AS90 guns + more at various stages of readiness;

▫️100 units of armored vehicles, including the "Bulldog" armored personnel carriers;

▫️dozens of unmanned aerial vehicles;

▫️100,000 artillery shells;

▫️100 "improved missiles";

▫️spare parts for supporting Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles.

India in December increased purchases of Russian oil to a record level, – Bloomberg
Last month, India bought about 1.2 million barrels of oil per day from Moscow, according to Vortexa Ltd. This is 29% more than in November, and 33 times more than a year earlier.

In Kyiv, there is now a serious shortage of electricity and the situation is critical, – said the mayor of the capital city, Vitali Klitschko, at the World Economic Forum in Davos in an interview with CNN
“Now we have a shortage of electricity in Kyiv about 30%. At present, it is quite cold in Ukraine – minus 10 Celcius (14 Fahrenheit), minus 20 Celcius (minus 4 Fahrenheit), and sometimes in winter – minus 30 degrees Celcius (minus 22 Fahrenheit)
And in these weather conditions, it is almost impossible to live without electricity, to live without heating, so the situation is critical, we are fighting for survival. An energy collapse in Ukraine can happen at any second," Klitschko said.

On January 16, the square named after Odesa was opened in Berlin

IAEA mission arrived at the South Ukrainian nuclear power plant in the Mykolaiv region, — head of the agency Rafael Grossi

Christine Lambrecht will be succeeded by Boris Pistorius as Federal Minister of Defense of Germany.

@notimagain I don't think the West does understand whats going on here, certainly not in the early days, perhaps not even now.

Russia has been fight & losing large numbers of men and equipment in various wars for a while now... i think many Western politicians find it utterly incomprehensible what Putin is doing and think he will give up but Russia wont, as i ve said before, they have the means to carry on this war for many years to come, sanctions nor economic hardship will stop them.

The amounts given (by Europe) so far to Ukraine are tiny in comparison to the threat, what is needed or even what Europe spends on foreign aid, let alone health or education.

Patriot was fast tracked only because Putin changed tactics, i don't think the West has planned anything at all in regard to Patriot.

I do agree that advanced weapons sent cannot fall into Russian hands, however Patriot batteries would be placed far from the front line? esp as the plan is to send just 2 of them.

On the Challenger stuff, we aren't talking about new equipment here, just getting 30 to 50 tanks currently not in service back into service, whilst we give Ukraine a similar number of serviceable ones.

Oleksiy Arestovych, Zelensky’s. Presidential Advisor has resigned after making unsubstantiated claims that Ukraine 🇺🇦 shot down the missile that hit a Dnipro Residential Building killing 40 civilians

twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1615292927680430081?s=61&t=ZewKNvzIxZ4cdjGSLVbuiA

This is the guy that does the live streams I usually repost here, he's been coming in for a lot of Twitter stick in the past week and has now resigned.

India in December increased purchases of Russian oil to a record level, – Bloomberg
Last month, India bought about 1.2 million barrels of oil per day from Moscow, according to Vortexa Ltd. This is 29% more than in November, and 33 times more than a year earlier

Yep this is what i mean, Russia can use this revenue and from China/Africa/Asia to fund it war production and hence the destruction of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the UK carries on seeking a trade agreement with India, using Sunaks family ties.

@Alexandra2001

I don't think the West does understand whats going on here, certainly not in the early days, perhaps not even now.

With all due respect I think certain politicians aside I'm really going to have to disagree with you on that..

Patriot was fast tracked only because Putin changed tactics, i don't think the West has planned anything at all in regard to Patriot.

Re fast track - possibly...but last couple of months the main problem has been (and probably still often continues to be) the slow Iranian drones which present a very different problem in terms of target profile that also required urgent solutions.. As for planning or not States side maybe I'll hand that over to @MissConductUS though it's a bit of a hospital pass (sorry MC US).

and I have to say yet again I'm getting the impression "Patriot" has become somewhat totemic to some - the reality is it won't be a complete game changer, it (as in a battery) will be limited in the area it will cover...the larger Ukraine might actually be better off with a larger number of supposedly lesser and less well known systems...but the more of anything the better.

On the Challenger stuff, we aren't talking about new equipment here, just getting 30 to 50 tanks currently not in service back into service, whilst we give Ukraine a similar number of serviceable ones.

Bizarrely them not being new is part of the problem - where do you get the parts required to get the 30-50 that are not in service back into service? Probably/possibly by cannibalising the hulls of those tanks not in service...ahhh..... 🤔

For those in the know.....

can thanks be used as an effective weapon for counter offensive rather than defending a line? Will the new tanks the Ukranians will receive be vulnerable to the same tactics the Ukranians used against Russia during the initial offensive on Kiev?

I was just wondering how you distributed tanks well on a long front line without an explicit counter offensive plan (think Desert Storm with a huge number of tanks supported by air cover devastating a weak Iraqi.army). Will tanks effectively just be mobile artillery rather th an a weapon which when used an masse allows a 'thrust'' behind enemy lines?

Looking like another high level US/Russian meeting is on the cards:
www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-spy-chief-says-meeting-with-cias-burns-is-possible-state-media-2023-01-17/

Iuliia Mendel
@IuliiaMendel
·
22m
Russian media say that Putin will make an important announcement tomorrow about the war

Attaching the accompanying image as I think it really adds to it.

For additional context I wonder if it will be related to the below (reported in the Independent 14mins ago).

"Russia to make 'major changes' to armed forces from 2023 to 2026
Russia said on Tuesday that it would make "major changes" to its armed forces from 2023 to 2026, promising to shake up its military structure after months of setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine. In addition to administrative reforms, the Defence Ministry said it would strengthen the combat capabilities of its naval, aerospace and strategic missile forces."

From 16th Jan, UK Defence Secretary statement on war in Ukraine, and support being provided:

www.gov.uk/government/speeches/defence-secretary-oral-statement-on-war-in-ukraine--2

From which:

"......Today I can announce the most significant package of combat power to date to accelerate Ukrainian success.

This includes:

A squadron of Challenger 2 tanks with armoured recovery and repair vehicles.
We will donate AS90 guns to Ukraine. This comprises a battery of eight guns at high readiness and two further batteries at varying states of readiness. This donation will not impact our existing AS90 commitment to Estonia.

Hundreds more armoured and protected vehicles will also be sent including Bulldog.

A manoeuvre support package, including minefield breaching and bridging capabilities worth £28 million.

Dozens more uncrewed aerial systems worth £20 million to support Ukrainian artillery.

Another 100,000 artillery rounds; on top of the 100,000 rounds already delivered.

Hundreds more sophisticated missiles including GMLRS rockets, Starstreak air defence missiles, and medium range air defence missiles.

An equipment support package of spares to refurbish up to a hundred Ukrainian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

While the tanks and the AS90s will come from our stocks, along with their associated ammunition, a significant number of the other donations are being purchased from the open market or from supportive third-party countries...."

Re fast track - possibly...but last couple of months the main problem has been (and probably still often continues to be) the slow Iranian drones which present a very different problem in terms of target profile that also required urgent solutions.. As for planning or not States side maybe I'll hand that over to @MissConductUS though it's a bit of a hospital pass (sorry MC US).

I had to google "hospital pass". Thanks, @notimagain, 😁

I make no apologies whatsoever for planning on the US side with regards to Patriot or any other weapon system, and to be perfectly frank am a bit cranky about all of the "coulda shoulda woulda" from people who don't understand military logistics. The US has focused on what we and the UAF forces need most urgently because just those needs are enormous, and the logistics pipeline is only so big. There's no Star Trek transporter that can magic this all of the thousands of items that have had to be taken out of storage, put through a maintenance and inspection cycle, and get them to Ukraine. American soldiers have spent many thousands of hours doing this. Thank god logistics has always been robust in the US armed forces. Try, just for a moment, to think about what $20 billion dollars worth of weapons, ammunition and supplies looks like. We also have no magic binoculars that look into the future and allow us to anticipate how Russian tactics will change months into the future.

There's also the political aspect. The American military operates under civilian control. Nothing gets taken out, polished up, and sent without the approval of the executive branch and enabling legislation. Given the degree of political gridlock we've had in the past few years, I'm quite pleasantly surprised at how smoothly this has all gone.

Late check in.

Its not could should would.... if the US can train crews now, no reason why not in april may june?
They didn't see the need because Russia was not attacking infrastructure as it is now.
As for looking into the future, plenty were calling for more missile systems to sent to Ukraine inc Patriot in the spring summer, inc on here, the argument against then was "it takes 12months to train.."

There seems to be a complete lack of awareness of where are now, Russia pretty much controls 25% of Ukraine, that isn't really changing and unless the west starts arming Ukraine a whole heap more than it is already, then in 12 months time Russia will still control 25% only even more death and destruction, Ukraine also has not the supply of soldiers that Russia has.

The infrastructure attacks are devastating, no civilian pop. can mange without water, sanitation or heating.

As for spares for ch2's maybe the UK needs to be putting in order's for them right now to BAE ? because though it will take a long time to get up to speed, this war is not going anywhere....

There was a Russian BBC correspondent on the Radio the other day, he said "Russia is re-arming at an alarming rate, their factories are going 24/7 to replenish stocks (of relatively dumb munitions), the West is not do this at anything like the same rate"

As for looking into the future, plenty were calling for more missile systems to sent to Ukraine inc Patriot in the spring summer, inc on here, the argument against then was "it takes 12months to train.."

People have been calling for all sorts of things since the war began. Reread this bit.

The US has focused on what we and the UAF forces need most urgently because just those needs are enormous, and the logistics pipeline is only so big.

Should we have sent the Patriots instead of Javelins early on? Should we have sent Patriots instead of HIMARS back in June?

And as notim has pointed out repeatedly, the Patriot system is not designed to engage low level, slow moving drones. The guns and medium range missile systems that have been supplied already are much better for that.

As for spares for ch2's maybe the UK needs to be putting in order's for them right now to BAE ? because though it will take a long time to get up to speed, this war is not going anywhere....

I know I'm going to sound like apologist, again, or maybe I'm being realist..anyhow, and this is just an IMHO, there's no guarantee Rheinmetall BAe or the various subcontractors have the capability/expertise/production capacity and equipment to start producing bespoke spares for a tank that they haven't been building for quite some time.

It's the same problem that can happen with aircraft, especially military ones, once you try and operate them well past end of production date...Often the only answer short term is enable a fleet to keep operating is to reduce operational fleet size and keep of stock of mothballed airframes in reserve that you slowly strip for spares.

I wonder if they might keep the challengers in the rear and guard the Bellorussian border or something, and use them to free up the tanks that are easier to keep supplied/repaired, perhaps. Would be a shame not to see them in direct action, but anything that helps the effort would be fine with me.

Rushes in with .

Forgot about the new thread (thank you, Magic!), and couldn't understand why TIO had gone so quiet...

oh put the kettle on for us too please @PerkingFaintly ! :)

Yes, cunning plan. Keep the Challengers in the rear working with the beavers.

"Beavers help the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fight Russians 🦫
The threat of a second invasion of the Russian Federation from Belarus remains, but the weather conditions and the vital activity of beavers in the border zone do not at all contribute to the offensive, the military believes.
Now around the border, there are kilometers of overflowing rivers, thick silt, and swampy fields. The local population of beavers also contributed to the flood.
“When beavers build dams, people usually destroy them, but that didn’t happen this year because of the war, so now there’s water everywhere,” said a spokesman for the Volyn Territorial Defense, which is now conducting exercises in the border areas."

Can Challenger tanks work in those conditions?

I have to admit I am a bit confused about what Arestovych was supposed to have said. He has already admitted that he made a serious mistake live and apologized to the families. I would have thought that should be enough. Why does he need to resign? Is he saying Russians are manipulating this space to pressurise him to resign?

General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has gone to Ukraine for a face-to-face meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart.

U.S., Ukraine military chiefs meet in-person for the 1st time

This certainly bodes well for further cooperation.

Good, hope this will help unblock German/Scholz resistance to authorising the use of Leopard tanks at the upcoming Ramstein meeting in Germany.

@Alexandra2001 I hear you. Every day this war/occupation lasts is a day too long. It does feel like feet dragging. When I see the time scales, it is frustrating. I wish Ukraine could pound the Russians out yesterday. Zelensky has been pleading for weapons since day 1 and continuously ever since. If the flow is too slow, it is probably too much too soon rather than too little too late. There are so many constraints. I think the US is the only country that has the ability to act fast and provide enough fire power to make a difference. I am sure other countries have contributed loads too proportionately (and keep it more under wraps or it is less reported) but it feels like the US has done and continues to do a lot.

No idea where you'd be best off using a formation of that size...and I agree with the sentiments in the last sentence..

I think what needs to remember is the Challenger announcement, like the French AMX-10 announcement, isn't really about the UK/France trying by themselves or in partnership to supply a really significant amount of armour...

These announcements are pretty much all being done to provide Chancellor Scholz with enough of a fig leaf, plus smoke, plus mirrors to allow him to announce that third parties (mostly in Europe) will be allowed to export some of their Leopard 2s to Ukraine.

ecfr.eu/article/the-leopard-plan-how-european-tanks-can-help-ukraine-take-back-its-territory/

//"The Leopard 2 tank, first introduced in 1979 and upgraded in several rounds ever since, is in use in 13 European armies: Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey. Together they have more than 2,000 vehicles across different variants and levels of readiness. The more that countries donate tanks, the easier it will be to share the burden of giving them away. The same applies to stored reserve vehicles, where only a few are in operable condition, with the rest in need of restoration. The more countries share this effort, the more they can achieve with low numbers per country, and the cheaper it will be to refurbish phased-out vehicles."//

If Scholz doesn't take the opportunity he is being given to come up with the goods at the end of this week at the Ramstein meting then that really is a major blow, I think if that happens it really would be right to question the level some in the west are or are not prepared to provide to Ukraine.