Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

@MMBaranova you are making a difference to your relatives. You are a lifeline. One day once the aggressor is seen off, the mending and rebuilding can start. Hopes and prayers they can hang on till then.

I would love to have been a fly on the wall last month when Russia and China spoke. There has been such a dramatic shift in threats to the wider world over the last 4 weeks. I can only imagine how stern China must have been with Russia regarding its nuclear threats.

The war was a huge diplomatic embarrassment for China, coming shortly after the "our friendship knows no limits" speech. China's best friend is now revealed to be a corrupt, barbarian state. It's not a good look for China.

Blueshoes: How does she and her mother live and keep warm if they don't have a livelihood. Is it humanitarian handouts. Sorry if this is a stupid question. I cannot imagine life under those circumstances.

If you remember our house had bomb damage at the beginning of the war and eventually we moved out. We live in my mother's friends’ apartment. Sometimes they turn on the generator for literally an hour a day to somehow warm up. In terms of food, the shops don’t work at all, there is a man who brings food once a week and you can buy it from him as well as humanitarian aid.

I would imagine that Putin will be nervous about the upcoming Biden-Xi summit on the sidelines of the G20. Not expecting great movement, and no joint statement planned, but significant that they’re meeting in person.

mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1591855236356112384 unconfirmed Russian sources say that a place on the left bank of the Dnipovska Gulf has been liberated

Daily Fail suggesting that rather than being exchanged, this guy was kidnapped by pro-Russian forces. They also say that it might have been a set up as a warning to those considering surrender.

Do you remember there was lots of footage of the Russian installing pill boxes to use to defend again Ukraine in southern Kherson...

... well....

....this is the 'after' shot.

Made my evening that has!

Thats REALLY interesting and something of an unintentional cross post.

WarMonitor AT WarMonitor3
Russian source reports that Ukrainian forces have liberated the town of Herois’ke on the left bank of the Dniprovska Gulf.

Unconfirmed for now.

Ukrainian SOF have already been working in these areas across the Dnipro.

Something to keep in mind for the future.

The only thing I've seen mentioned previously about the Kinburn spit has been in relation to video footage of lots of pill boxes being shipped up there a couple of weeks ago. The comments were that the spit of land was a weak spot for Russia and it would be possible for Ukraine to launch a surprise attack that way and outflank the Russians into Southern Kherson.

And the moment of pill boxes would suggest the Russians were worried about it. But perhaps not worried enough it might seem. Apparently Ukrainian Southern Command announced their intention to liberate it (the last part of Mykolaiv Oblast occupied) on the 12th.

So to see the suggestion that there may have an offensive in this area is interesting. This is a response to the Southern Command announcement which shows why this is potentially important (and indeed why they would be happy to make the announcement and forgo the element of surprise...)

(((Tendar))) AT Tendar
In my opinion, the Kinburn peninsula is interesting for an amphibious attack. It is relatively hard to defend before landing and close for Ukrainian artillery.
Russia will soon have to make a decision if they want to defend the whole area or just bottlenecks.

This goes further:

Trent Telenko AT TrentTelenko 18h
The Siege of Kherson is over.
The Siege of Crimea has begun.

I've laid out the logistics of the Kherson siege previously, plus the water implications for Crimea if Kherson's right bank fell.

Now it is time for a Crimean siege logistical thread 1/

The Siege of Crimea began before the Siege of Kherson ended, on October 8th 2022.

When the Kerch Straits road and rail bridge was bombed.

This attack cut Crimea off from its primary fuel supply, crippling VKS aviation based there. 2/

This loss of fuel for Russia's Crimean based aviation accelerated the Siege of Kherson's right bank by denying the VKS the closely based fuel it needed to contest Ukrainian air superiority.

This loss means a great deal for the Ukrainian Navy's Neptune ASCM launchers.
3/

Stanislav, Kherson Oblast represents a key piece of strategic Ukrainian terrain for the siege of Crimea for basing the Ukrainian Navy mobile Neptune anti-ship cruise missile launchers.

Their reach from there covers well south of the port of Sevastopol. 4/

The Russian Black Sea Fleet operational patterns in screening Sevastopol have changed.

Whether from the drone boat bomb attack or the fall of the Dnipro's right bank increasing the Neptune's engagements range isn't clear.

It is consistent with both. 5/

Given the changed operational pattern AT covertshores spotted, the ability of Russian Black Sea Fleet to move fuel by coastal tanker or fuel filled cistern rail cars by ferry to Sevastopol port has been fatally compromised.

The most extreme western tip of occupied southern Ukraine is the Kinburn peninsula at the right bank of the Dnipro's mouth.

It is the most fuel starved territory in Russia's grasp & it has no air cover from AFU drones. 7/

Worse, with the fall of Stanislav, the Kinburn peninsula is under the footprint of Ukrainian Army, drone directed, 155mm guns firing basic shells, AKA "Fire Control."

A Ukrainian helicopter and/or boat lifted light infantry force with Stugna-P ATGM, 8/

...Switchblade drones, mortars and long range artillery radios that reach Stanislav would be able to take & potentially hold the Kinburn peninsula inside that artillery footprint.

Whether AFU actually does this is a different matter. 9/

The problem is the Russians have to honor this threat to the Western flank the Dnipro line.

Forcing the Russians to occupy Kinburn peninsula, which hasn't been fortified yet due to a lack of roads, gives the Ukrainians lots of Russian soft artillery targets out in the open. 10/

If the Russians leave the Kinburn peninsula an unoccupied "Grey Zone."
It becomes a sanctuary for Ukrainian Partisans, Special Forces and especially AFU drones.

And the threat to their Western flank remains as Russian aircover recedes. 11/

And by that I mean the presence of AFU HIMARS on the Dnipro's right bank puts the Russian VKS helicopter base in Chaplynka in GMLRS range with all the explosive implications that fact represents.

See 12/

(((Tendar))) AT Tendar
Russians are starting to evacuate their helicopter base in Chaplynka, due to the fact that HIMARS are now in firing range to this Russian-occupied city. The base was also an important CnC post.

The moving of gear out of the 90km GLMRS zone will continue.

Trent Telenko AT TrentTelenko
Nor is that the only GMLMS problem the Russian face in S. Ukraine. The following are within the GMLRS footprint:

o The E97 route from Western Crimea

o All the P57 route to the Black Sea
o The supply hub at Myrne
o The P47 route to Malachka
o The M14 route to Druzhbivka 13/

The Russian Army's "Dnipro line" screening Crimea has an open western flank at the Kinburn peninsula, with its sea and ground lines of communications interdicted, and its Crimea supply source being short of fuel to support combat operations because of the bombed Kerch Bridge. 14/

The reality of interdicted routes, short fuel and the threat of the open flank at the Kinburn peninsula represent the Russian Army's new logistical tar baby for the Siege of Crimea.

Just as the Kyiv 40 km parking lot, Snake Island, Chornobaevka & Kherson all were before it. 15/

We are seeing yet again Ukraine's "Death of a Thousand Cuts" operational strategy at work against Russians.

Russia's trucks supporting the Dnipro line screening Crimea are in a kill jar of Ukraine's making.

Defeat & retreat, to & thru Crimea, are the only Russian outcomes
16/16

And we have a lovely response and all important map from Defmon to illustrate the point:

Def Mon AT DefMon3
Kinburn
I'm not going to speculate if the rumors are true or not.

But if they would advance from there and advance towards the sea in the Polohy - Pavlivka area, then I think things will be interesting.

Is something happening? Well apparently Ukraine released this footage yesterday:
mobile.twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1591441469436743684

and this today:
mobile.twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1591834186591215622

Certainly the Ukrainians WANT the Russians to think they have made assaults in this area...

... and it would seem it could be actually plausible as a move.

However contary to the first tweet above there are also claims the rumour is only coming from Ukrainian sources, not Russian ones:

War Monitor AT WarMonitors
Numerous pro UA source reporting that AFU troops are currently in Herois'ke.

However this claim has been labelled as completely false by many RU sources.

Another watch and see...

I'm guessing this is where whats happening with the Kakhovka dam matters. Given Kinburn spit is low lying and connects with low lying parts of Kherson. And perhaps makes it more not less likely.

Btw that footage of the pill boxes I mention above from 29th October:

twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1586465527261589504

Mike Martin AT ThreshedThought
The front lines look like this at the moment roughly. Nits underscored are where the Ru have undertaken substantial fortification and defensive work.

Now everyone keeps asking me what the Russians are going to do next.
Wrong question.

The momentum has been with the Ukrainians for some time.

The question is actually what are the Ukrainians going to do next.

If you look at this map there are two obvious directions the Ukr could advance. In the NE they are already pushing on the Svatove-Kremina road.

Has the benefit of cutting a major supply line to the Russian fortifications in the East (Donbas) Or the could drive an axis south and try and cut the Russian forces in two. This has the benefit of cutting the last major railway supply line to the Russians in the South

But actually - the Ukr have conducted an amphibious landing in the Kilburn spit (blue box). With the recent advances in Kherson this is well within massed artillery range (i.e. not just the rarer HIMARS). The Russian are finding it very hard to hold

Reportedly the Ukr are half way up the spit and the Russians are trying to rush reinforcements to the area. Why?

If the Ukr get a foothold there they will have turned the Russian flank. All those Russian fortifications, pointless.

Anyway - what does this Ukr assault tell us?
That Crimea is there strategic goal here. And the reason for that is that it is the strategic centre of gravity of Putin’s credibility. He got a massive boost from taking it in 2014. Losing it now could mean the end of him.

I think there are a few other things we can pick out of this too. I suspect the Ukr are going to fight through the winter. Why?

Their soldiers are better trained and have higher morale than the Russians. And so they will be at a distinct advantage over the winter. The Russians are stuck in a defensive mindset, and they won’t want to get out of their trenches and foxholes. The Ukrainians will just bypass them and smash up their supply.

So taking all this together - I think there are a bunch of things the Ukrainians are going to do now. Judging by their way of war so far Russian logistics are in for another pasting.

Red line - Ru front line
Orange line - HIMARS range.

The Ru units on the approach to Crimea will gradually see their logistics dry up. (Numbers explained in a tweet further down)

What about Kinburn though? What’s that about?

It’s basically a diversion. The Ru have to pay attention to it (resources, troops etc) But this diversion allows or makes it easier for the Ukrainians to do this

Put it all together on a map and it looks like this

1- distraction
2-degrade logistics
3 - decisive strike and drop the Kerch bridge for good measure.

And I’m guessing this will happen over the winter.

Original thread:
mobile.twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1591899536397684736

@RedToothBrush thanks for the analysis on the Kinburn spit and what is happening or not.

Trent Telenko was quoted as saying:

"Stanislav, Kherson Oblast represents a key piece of strategic Ukrainian terrain for the siege of Crimea for basing the Ukrainian Navy mobile Neptune anti-ship cruise missile launchers.

Their reach from there covers well south of the port of Sevastopol. 4/"

The Ukrainian navy still has Neptune missiles? I recall this is the missile that reached the Russian flagship Moskva and sank it. I presume this is launched from land, not a ship and so capturing the Kherson right bank extends its range. Right down to Sesvastopol in Crimea. Oh my.

@RedToothBrush your last post from Mike Martin.

If Ukraine were a chess board, it would not be too long before one would be tempted to say to Russia 'check'.

A reminder of this song, first made when things looked impossibly bleak

twitter.com/LlopisMarta95/status/1591903579324940288

And by that I mean the presence of AFU HIMARS on the Dnipro's right bank puts the Russian VKS helicopter base in Chaplynka in GMLRS range with all the explosive implications that fact represents.

I've seen reports that the Russians have already abandoned this base. HIMARS allows the Ukrainians to create a second front 50 miles forward and the Russians have no counter for it.

Currently watching Children of Ukraine on itv

Those poor children

Those barbarians

Following this excellent thread.

Update from UK MoD this morning:

Winter will bring a change in conflict conditions for both Russian and Ukrainian forces. Changes to daylight hours, temperature and weather will present unique challenges for fighting soldiers. Any decisions that the Russian General Staff make will be in part informed by the onset of winter.

Daylight will reduce to fewer than 9 hours a day, compared to 15-16 in the height of summer. This results in fewer offensives and more static defensive frontlines. Night vision capability is a precious commodity, further exacerbating the unwillingness to fight at night.

The average high temperature will drop from 13 degrees Celsius through September to November, to zero through December to February. Forces lacking in winter weather clothing and accommodation are highly likely to suffer from non-freezing cold injuries. Additionally the 'golden hour' window in which to save a critically wounded soldier is reduced by half, making the risk of contact with the enemy much greater.

The weather itself as likely to see an increase in rainfall, wind speed and snowfall. Each of these will provide additional challenges to the already low morale of Russian soldiers, but also present problems for Kit maintenance. Basic drills such as weapon cleaning must be adjusted to the conditions and the risk of weapon malfunctions increase.

ISW Key inflections in ongoing military operations on November 13:

Wagner Group Financer Yevgeny Prigozhin asked the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office to open a case against St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov for high treason amid viral footage of Wagner forces murdering one of their own.[19] Prigozhin and Russian nationalist milbloggers largely supported the murder of the alleged traitor.[20]

The Russian military grouping stationed in Belarus continues to generate social tensions among Belarusians.[21]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.[22]

Ukrainian forces continued to consolidate control over the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.[23] Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military base in Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast, 50km south of Beryslav on the eastern bank of the Dnipro.[24]

Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the directions of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.[25] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured Mayorsk, southeast of Bakhmut.[26]

Russian forces continued routine indirect fire against frontline settlements in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[27] Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City with an Iskander missile.[28]

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the demobilization of mobilized students in Russian-occupied Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, likely as part of an ongoing effort to integrate proxy forces into the Russian Armed Forces.[29]

Russian forces and occupation officials are forcibly mobilizing men in Russian-occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and forcing them to construct trenches and defensive fortifications in the city.[30]

Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are withdrawing from the left bank of the Dnipro River and concentrating forces and equipment in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.[31]

Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed an amendment to a draft law that would allow Russian officials to revoke Russian citizenship for disseminating “false” information about the Russian military, participating in extremist or undesirable organizations, or calling for violations of Russian “territorial integrity.”[32]

Note: It's very well worth reading the longer version here www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

(The gist is that the Russian forces are a total hodgepodge which won't easy be effective but may get somewhere from sheer weight of numbers. The ISW think that Surovikin got the ok to withdraw from Kherson if he could take and hold Luhansk and Donetsk which may also explain the increased aggression around Bakhmut. However, they think that in a few months the probably-limited probable territorial gains by Russia will come to a halt.

They then go on to say that negotiations at this time would overwhelmingly favour Russia, while on the ground at this point the Ukrainians are in a more advantageous position. Also that "Ukraine has by no means liberated the minimum territory essential to its future security and economic survival even with the victory in western Kherson, finally")

This is one for @MissConductUS but just an observation on that image and some others doing the rounds...

I think anything that's as portable as these "pill boxes".. (almost seem to be being delivered by the lorry load) almost certainly won't offer much protection against anything other than small arms fire, and maybe not even that in some circumstances.

Probably useful for keeping conscripts morale up (initially until reality dawns) and the rain off but other than that?

PA media at PA
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has been taken to hospital in Bali after arriving for the G20 summit, Indonesian officials have said

We have a number of old WWII pillboxes around where I live. You would not be putting one of them on a lorry. The walls are about a foot thick, with internal blast walls.

Now this is very interesting and my mind is running all over the place!