Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

Thanks as always!

ISW Key Takeaways

Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson City is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, eroding confidence in Putin’s commitment to and ability to deliver on his war promises.

Russian officials are increasingly normalizing the public and likely illegal deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia.

The Russian military leadership is trying and failing to integrate ad hoc military formations into a more cohesive fighting force in Ukraine.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.

Ukrainian forces continued to liberate settlements on the right (western) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.

Russian officials may be trying to avoid providing military personnel with promised payments.

Russian forces and occupation officials continue to endanger residents and subject them to coercive measures.

+++

⚡️Russia imposes new limitations on Kerch Strait traffic.
According to the Russian state news agency TASS, Russian authorities banned vessels loaded outside of Russia and Russian-occupied territories from crossing the Kerch Strait from the Black Sea into the Azov Sea.

⚡️Scholz pledges new Iran sanctions for its drone supplies to Russia and crackdown on protests.

⚡️National Resistance Center: Russia stole 15,000 artworks from Kherson Oblast. (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/national-resistance-center-russia-stole-15-000-artworks-from-kherson-oblast)
Four trucks with art stolen from Kherson Oblast arrived in Simferopol, a city in occupied Crimea, according to the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center.

⚡️Telegraph: UK, EU to stage walkouts when Russian delegates speak at G20 (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/telegraph-uk-eu-to-stage-walkouts-when-russian-delegates-speak-at-g-20).
The U.K. and the EU plan to confront Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the delegation at the upcoming G20 summit over Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The two delegations will also stage walkouts when Russian delegates speak at the summit, The Telegraph reported citing unnamed officials.

⚡️Intelligence: Russia, Iran prepare deal for ballistic missile supplies. (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/intelligence-russia-iran-prepare-deal-for-ballistic-missile-supplies)

⚡️Russian media: Russia evacuates occupation administration from Kakhovka, east bank of Dnipro River. (https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-media-russia-evacuates-occupation-administration-from-kakhovka-east-bank-of-dnipro-river)
According to the independent Russian media outlet Meduza, Russian-installed leader of occupied Kakhovka, Pavel Filipchuk, said that fighting is possible in the 15-kilometer zone on the Dnipro’s eastern bank.

⚡️Ukrainian local authorities resume work in Kherson after liberation.
Both the Kherson Oblast and city governments returned to the city on Nov. 12, one day after Ukrainian troops liberated Kherson after over eight months of Russian occupation.
He also announced the introduction of a curfew in Kherson from 5 p.m. until 8 a.m.
The security situation remains tense, with Russian forces present on the eastern bank of the Dnieper, an unknown number of Russian soldiers hiding in civilian clothes in the city, and much of the area still heavily mined.

⚡️General Staff: Russian forces continue offensive in Donbas.
Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Nov. 12 that the Russian offensive continues near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Russian bank seeks to regain access to SWIFT as part of grain talks.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said that Moscow was hoping to reconnect Rosselkhozbank, a state agricultural bank, to the SWIFT international messaging network as part of UN talks on Ukrainian grain exports, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

⚡️Ex-Ukreximbank CEO given state company job after being fired for assaulting journalists.

🗣️President of Georgia Salome Zourabichvili: “About 700 thousand Russian citizens left for Georgia after Vladimir Putin announced "partial" mobilization in the country

🚊"Ukrzaliznytsia" is already working to restore communication with Kherson
"We had to get to Kherson. To assess the damage, to coordinate with the Armed Forces and the authorities, to organize a team for the soonest possible return of the railway connection to Kherson," wrote Oleksandr Kamyshin, Chairman of the Board of JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia".

Communications are still completely down in Kherson for ordinary people as the Russians destroyed the huge communications tower.

The reality of being a mobilised soldier in the Russian army seems to be so awful I can't quite believe it's the truth, this Twitter thread is an example:

Only four out of 91 mobilised Russians lasted a week under HIMARS and shell fire on the front line in eastern Ukraine. They were told by their colonel that their "equipment is worth its weight in gold, and we will recruit new ones instead of you".

twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1591488510804262912?s=61&t=W077A9TSPQaQLn-ZYmcRNA

Day 262, November 12, 2022. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin broadcast
Posted on 13 November 2022

🔥 Kherson
There are some areas on the right bank of the Dnieper which Ukrainian defense forces have not yet entered. Stabilization measures take place to capture Russian soldiers in civilian clothes. The low rate of UA advance is explained by dense mining of the territory.
Russia abandoned equipment and ammunition. So far, UA reported 5 sizable weapon depots, 50+ trucks, 1 helicopter, at least 5 air defense systems, 10+ artillery systems, a lot of small arms, grenade launchers, mines, and ammunition.
Presently, the newly liberated territories are not massively shelled from RU positions on the left bank.
The road bridge at the Nova Kakhovka dam was blown up. The Antonovsky bridge was destroyed during HIMARS attack on a convoy, possibly hitting a truck with ammunition which denoted and/or hitting an explosive load set by Russians to destroy the bridge later.
The bridge was destroyed when 10-12 K RU troops were still trapped on the right bank. This explains a lot of abandoned equipment as troops rushed to Nova Kakhovka and walked across.

🔥 Will Russia de-escalate?
Could the surrender of Kherson by the invaders be the beginning of the withdrawal of Russians from Ukrainian territory? Two criteria to assess if it is true: if RU resumes attacks on critical infrastructure and if it continues using Iranian weapons.
According to UA intelligence, 1750 Iranian drones and long-range missiles (300-700 km) were sold. If RU begins to use these weapons, then de-escalation and withdrawal are out of the question.
There haven’t been many attacks on infrastructure in the last 10 days. Perhaps, Iran pressures Russia to wait till after the G20 summit.

🔥 UA Voting in UN
Arestovych, with all due respect to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is puzzled by and refuses to accept Ukraine’s repeated voting, together with Iran and Russia, in favor of the anti-Israeli resolution. UA should at least abstain.
This vote could be explained by UA’s position to avoid controversy: because UA is occupied, they support deoccupation resolutions. However, this vote doesn’t help make Israel an ally. Ukraine, being attacked by Iranian weapons, should not support anti-Israeli resolutions.

🔥 Meeting of FMs
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba is ready to meet with his Russian colleague Lavrov if such an offer comes from him. This is not to say Ukraine is negotiating peace with Russia. Such meetings are part of a diplomat’s job.

🔥 Other news from the front
Tactical battles in Zaporizhye and Donbass. RU has lost the ability to change anything on the strategic level. Heavy fighting for Pavlivka. The enemy brought in reserves.
Attempted enemy attacks on the frontline from Maryinka to Horlivka. Ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and in Svatove-Kreminna direction.
RU fails to advance anywhere; UA holds its positions despite RU’s local superiority in numbers and means. RU strengthened its position with mobilized and private military companies while UA concentrated its reserves on the liberation of Kherson.

🔥 Next step
Mariupol direction is the next logical step to cut off supply lines to the entire RU southern group. If UA takes Volnovakha, they will stop railroad transit. Taking Mariupol will cut off all other roads. Ben Hodges believes the UA army can re-take Mariupol by January.
This timeline allows UA to accumulate planned Western deliveries to begin such an offensive. But UA can also begin an offensive in another location, or two at the same time.
RU has retreated 5 times in this war, and not once did they guess correctly what the UA army would do.

🔥 Negotiations
UA will only begin negotiating when all RU troops leave UA territory. This was affirmed by many western leaders. Putin can stop the war any time by ordering complete withdrawal.
This decision will save thousands of lives, preserve whatever is left of his army, prevent riots in Russia, stop economic descent, etc. He can put an end to this. But will he?

🔥 Belarus
UA mined its border regions which prompted a strange reaction (accusation) from the Belarus border committee to this defensive action. No signs of impending BY attack. If they didn’t attack in March when RU was winning, they won’t attack now that Putin is losing this war.
RU grouping in Belarus needs 2-3 months to pose a threat. Most likely the new groups will be transferred to Donbass. At present, there are about 10K including rear units, air defense, airport services, etc.

🔥 This winter
Forecast from Arestovych: “Many bright events and pleasant surprises are expected in the coming months.”

Haven't seen anything about this before, apparently Ukraine are being accused of violating the Geneva Convention because they exchanged a Wagner fighter, a convicted murderer, against his will. He had gone on record as criticising Russia once he surrendered so Wagner executed him on camera when they got him back.
Don't really see why Ukraine are being held responsible for Russian barbarity, although the upshot of this is that Wagner forces will now fight to the death rather than surrender. This thread explains the ins and outs:

https://twitter.com/mxpoliakov/status/1591756586263117824?s=61&t=W077A9TSPQaQLn-ZYmcRNA

There is a lot to unpack here. Some people accused Ukraine of violating the Geneva convention because the Wagner group executed its mercenary on camera. I want to provide a basis for why those accusations are wrong. A 🧵

I use this site to remove paywalls. Just paste the link in and away you go
12ft.io

That's a great tip Bore 👍

For those of you wondering where all the Ukrainian flags come from in liberated Kherson!

twitter.com/olenahalushka/status/1591732350966431744?s=61&t=W077A9TSPQaQLn-ZYmcRNA

The sheer joy of that woman!

Given that the Russians evacuated everyone (some possibly forcibly), my question is where did all the people come from?

Brave people.

What I found both sad and uplifting about all those people and children emerging to celebrate the incoming Ukrainian soldiers in Kherson yesterday was how they'd said they'd been hiding in basements - especially the children

It made me think of the evil child catcher in Chitty Chitty Bang Bang - but that was fiction and this is all too scarily real

@BoreOfWhabylon I was beyond excited. Unfortunately, the 12ft.io link does not work for me on the Times link, whether I paste the URL into the site or paste it in front of the URL in the address box at the top or remove the https. It gets me to the site but still stops at the point in the article when the paywall starts.

Any IT tips?

Just tried - it doesn't work for me either! It usually does
Sorry folks, as you were

No worries. I will keep trying hacking other URLs ...

I wondered that too!

it's still 20% left. They said 80% had been evacuated but a lot had already escaped. Some of that 80% was apprently Russian soldiers in civilian clothing and there was a very heavy military presence in Kherson so that could perhaps be a lot?

I read two tweets by GEN Ben Hodges I thought were interesting. In this one, he predicts no slowdown in the Ukrainian offensives this winter:

twitter.com/general_ben/status/1591561834246860801

and here he speculates on what their next moves will be:

twitter.com/general_ben/status/1591486606812516352

Oh I love that!

She hid it very well.

I like his optimism re next moves.

I am sure he is right re no winter slowdown. The equipment issue gives Ukraine further comparative advantage over Russia so it makes sense not to waste that.

Yes, you would definitely hide your kids when they start talking about evacuating children to Crimea. It doesn’t bear thinking about.

Sunday chatting online to relatives. Some random mentions that even in context made me ponder:

Re-covering a sofa with a UK flag. Because... Boris Johnson.

What do you look forward to? Lots of mashed potato.

'I'm sorry I haven't replied for a long time, our Internet is unstable'. Shortly after vanished possibly due to lack of power/signal.

I dream about things I can't do.

....

People appearing in Kherson: the relatives south of the river, west from Nova Kakhovka are in VERY occasional contact with my brother and have been living in the basement since late February. They venture out when necessary. I am sure this is common in occupied areas.

I like his optimism too. He's also been consistently right about the war. There's no moss growing on General Ben.

The discussion perhaps struck me the most (have removed identifying words including location which is close to one of the Russian advance high points and Anglified it a little, although she is near fluent in English):

There is no great threat to life, the front has shifted away more. But the terrible thing is that this is really a military city, there is generally no electricity and water. I would really like to leave, find a job, be useful and live a normal life. But since the bombing, the infrastructure was broken, there was little transport, only private carriers remained, which are very expensive for me if I wanted to travel, because I have been out of work for nearly the whole war. I am really very sorry.

Before the war, I studied at university, worked too, went in for sports. Now my life is hell. My mother was fired from her job, since little works in the city now. My brother left to fight. I hate myself for not being able to help and not being able to find a job in this forgotten city.

😭

@MMBaranova That is so stark and sad. How does she and her mother live and keep warm if they don't have a livelihood. Is it humanitarian handouts. Sorry if this is a stupid question. I cannot imagine life under those circumstances.

Nice to believe in Ben Hodges' predictions: Ukraine will re-take Mariupol by Jan and Crimea by summer. Sweet dreams 🇺🇦.

I note he also predicts the failure in Ukraine could lead to collapse of Russian Federation and the West is not prepared now as it was not when the Soviet Union fell in 1991. Russia's stockpile of nuclear arms in the hands of a rogue state divided against another on ethnic lines or even finding its way to Iran is of particular concern.

www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-12/russia-latest-ukraine-failure-putin-downfall-ben-hodges-says/101638484

blueshoes: I'm not sure to be honest. I'll perhaps manage to ask tactfully. This is a second cousin then down a level. I have rolling discussions with various relatives and tend to pick them up and see if they can be moved along on a Sunday if I have the will to.

Once the reality of the war sunk in, I decided that I would send an amount equal to whatever my weekly shopping spend was to relatives. Not always the same one(s) each time. I just get into the habit of looking at the cost of the shop and sending that by the end of the day. I am not rich, but make a reasonable living and it is the least I can do. That and stay in touch and try to be positive.

I rarely speak to male relatives and the younger ones all seem to be fighting. Hardly anyone has moved, inside Ukraine or to Poland and beyond, since the war started.

The relatives in occupied Kherson kept losing touch and I was finding contact too unsettling [some bad things have happened]. My brother agreed he would do his best to stay in touch with them.

@MMBaranova thank you. Your relatives must be terrified. Hopefully life will start to improve for them soon. I can't even begin to imagine how they must be feeling. It's so sad. I hope they stay safe through this.