Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

Hangers cost money to build. Systemic corruption leaves little available for such luxuries.

The FT's article yesterday quoting a NATO diplomat seems to be getting a fair bit of attention on Twitter, as well as Biden's comments today when asked about Zelenskyy's assertion that the missile wasn't Ukrainian (Biden - "that's not what the evidence says"). I sense divisions appearing between Ukraine and NATO.

For reference FT quoted NATO diplomat as saying, in response to Zelenskyy's remarks:
“This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.”

I'm sure knowing what we now know about Russia the lack of hangers and most especially hardened aircraft shelters (HAS) it's probably down to cost - as @MissConductUS has pointed out.

There's also nowadays the issue of the low CEPs available and that's a major problem for HASs - basically they're now relatively easy to hit with munitions that can breach the structure by an opponent minded and equipped to do so (we saw that in the Gulf Wars).

There are a few other potential disadvantages to having them but I suspect in the Russian case main the reason will be the money.

I am worried about this. I feel NATO is wanting an end to this sooner rather than later for fear of direct confrontation. I worry that if Ukraine fear that support is waining that they may make more concessions than they would like to when it comes to negotiations to end the war before support faulters.

Recommend the Ukrainecast episode, "who fired the missile into Poland": pca.st/podcast/fe686880-77dd-013a-d7b2-0acc26574db2

I'm trying to remain optimistic and putting down to President Zelensky having an "off" day - and I can't blame him given the stress he must be under.

Maybe his local Commanders said "not our missile Boss" 🤐(wouldn't be the first time a Senior Officer has told a politician what they wanted to hear) and if they did that then in public statements at least the President has to back them.

Maybe smarter mover would have been to issue a holding statement along the lines of "don't know if it was one of ours... condolences if it was keeping an open mind.... investigation,..", but what do I know, I've never run for office.

..and anyway this is still Russians fault.

I agree, his perspective on all this is totally different to any other leader. He's doubled down on his assertion though that it wasn't Ukrainian and that worries me.

In more positive news the grain deal has been extended for 120 days.

Sorry if this has been discussed, I missed a lot on the thread yesterday: but has Peskov's comment praising Biden been mentioned in the context of seeming rift / differing responses between the west and Eastern Europe?

Doubling down is all about not looking weak which is understandable that he doesn't want to look weak to Putin.

Sometimes in life it's better to admit your mistakes and move on. However we all know Putin would jump on it if Zelenskey admitted he was wrong. Hopefully a bit of a learning to asserting all the facts before making and judgement. All must be hard for him with its that's going on around him.

Sorry about the typos using my phone and not the computer :/

Fuck off Farage.

What that man has gone through noone can understand. Is he perfect? No. Do I trust him? I personally have no skin in the game but I trust he is the best man for this awful job.

@MagicFox made the point about the latest Ukrainecast episode being worth a listen. They discussed this exact point. Basically, saying that it's a symptom of being an ex-soviet state, the ability to admit a mistake (they spoke about the incident when NATO accidently bombed a convoy of Albanian refugees and pretty immediately apologised) and that if they want to really turn towards the West then admitting mistakes is a value/ability they need to learn.

Sense is that there is a real effort between Russia and the US to bring the temp of their relationship down a bit and that there is a fair bit of diplomacy going on between the 2 nations directly. Frank Gardner, Lise Ducet and Sam De Bendern saying that this really is a move towards a desire by NATO to bring this war to an end. They were clear that divergence will begin and continue to appear between Ukraine and the West.

I don't think Sunak can hold the high ground when it comes to admitting to mistakes, his response is to deny it happened, which makes me consider the heads of other governments.

What's to say it's not a Ukrainian missile fired by Russia (from inside Ukraine)to cause division? It's not like they don't have a history of shit like that.

NATO needs to keep to the brief.

I think the consensus was that the missile debris showed what type of missile it was. Yes both Ukraine and Russia have these missiles but as they are such short ranged there is no where Russia would have been able to launch it from for it to reach where it did.

What's to say it's not a Ukrainian missile fired by Russia (from inside Ukraine)to cause division? It's not like they don't have a history of shit like that.

What type of missile and where from?

If you're thinking some sort of false flag operation using an S-300 (so the physical evidence that ends up in Poland looks credible) then the firers would have to be a hell of a long way inside the part of Ukraine still held by the Ukraine authorities...and an S-300 plus it's launcher isn't something you can drive around in the back of a car.

Poland claiming to have Video evidence of the blast and say Ukraine will likely be given access to the site. They must be quite confident of its origins to still believe it's a Ukranian air defence missile.

In fairness no one has mentioned Sunak in any of this.

Agreed...

I hope this thread doesn't start descending into the gaping rabbit hole that swallowed up the parallel discussion (?) two nights back.

Once you realise that guided weapons can and fail sometimes in esoteric ways (and some people two nights back were having a lot of trouble with that concept - probably due what's seen on TV and in films) then the most probable cause for events becomes, frankly, a bit mundane.....but nevertheless tragic.

True, I was just mulling it over. This is a good place to do that.

Key Takeaways

Russian sources and proxy officials are flagrantly touting the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.

Ukrainian sources continued to clarify the damage caused by the massive November 15 Russian missile strike across Ukraine.

The Russian information space largely followed the official Kremlin framing of the missile strike on Polish territory as a Western provocation.

Wagner Group financer Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing to establish himself as a central figure in the pro-war ultranationalist community likely in pursuit of ambitious political goals.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the directions of Svatove and Kreminna.

Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian forces and logistics nodes in southern Ukraine.

Multiple reports indicate that the morale and psychological state of Russian forces in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts are exceedingly low.

Russian officials continued their efforts to replace proxy officials in occupied territories with Russian officials, forcibly relocate residents, and integrate occupied areas with Russia.

+++

⚡️Sweden to supply (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sweden-to-supply-ukraine-with-air-defense-systems) Ukraine with air defense systems.
According to Sweden’s Defense Minister Pål Jonson, the upcoming military aid package will also include personal all-terrain vehicles, some winter equipment, body armor, and tents.

⚡️Duda says no signs (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/duda-says-no-signs-that-nov-15-missile-landing-in-poland-was-a-deliberate-attack) that Nov. 15 missile landing in Poland was a deliberate attack.

⚡️ Navy: Russia keeps over 100 Kalibr cruise missiles in Black, Caspian, Mediterranean seas.
According to Ukraine’s navy on Nov. 16, Russia has eight ships with up to four Kalibr missiles stationed in the Black Sea.
In the Med Sea, there are 10 Russian ships equipped with 76 Kalibr missiles.
In the Caspian Sea, Russia has three missile carriers with 24 Kalibr missiles.

⚡️ Infrastructure Ministry: Ukraine donates 27,000 metric tons of grain to Ethiopia.

⚡️ Reintegration Ministry: Red Cross to provide $2.7 million to liberated Kherson Oblast residents.

⚡️ Hungarian FM: Russian oil shipments resume via Druzhba pipeline.

⚡️Pentagon chief: NASAMS intercept all Russian missiles in Ukraine.
The U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the NASAMS air defense systems provided to Ukraine have a "100% success rate," Sky News reported.

⚡️Zelensky admits receiving hints that Putin wanted to negotiate.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 16 that Western countries had given “signals” that Russian President Vladimir Putin sought direct talks with Ukraine.

Michael Kofman: 'After Kherson, gains for Ukraine will come at slower pace' (kyivindependent.com/national/michael-kofman-after-kherson-gains-for-ukraine-will-come-at-slower-pace)
"I think Ukraine has the initiative, and from the standpoint of morale it does have momentum. Ukraine may now shift the bulk of the forces there to a different front," military analyst Michael Kofman told the Kyiv Independent.
"But they likely need rest and refit. The fighting in Kherson was grinding and costly."

⚡️Police chief: Russians mined police department building in Kherson, Ukraine forced to destroy the premises.

⚡️Pentagon chief calls Ramstein-7 meeting ‘very successful,” more military aid for Ukraine announced.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the group will continue working closely with Ukraine to provide critical equipment and weapons.

⚡️Some results of yesterday's meeting of the Ramstein Contact Group on Ukraine:
▪️Security package for $270 million from Sweden;
▪️2 more HAWK missile launchers from Spain;
▪️$500 million from Canada (+ winter equipment);
▪️Artillery and ammunition for MLRS from Germany;
▪️Short-range air defense systems from Poland;
▪️155-mm ammunition from Greece.

⚡️Minister: Ukraine grain deal extended for four months.
Ukrainian Infrastructrure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said that an agreement on the extension had been reached in Istanbul.

"According to the National Information Bureau, 11,129 children were illegally deported to the territory of the Russian Federation. Of these, 103 children have been returned,"

First reports of tortured corpses from Kherson

🇩🇪 Germany allocates EUR 1 million in emergency aid to the Energy Support Fund for Ukraine

⚖️Today the court decision in the case of downed Boeing MH 17 will be announced

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · Today 09:50
Key Takeaways

Thank you very much.

Those deported children - what can one say. it is heartbreaking.

The results of the court case in regard to the plane may provide an unfortunate echo of, and parallel to, the accidental Ukrainian missile in Poland in the minds of people such as Farage. Even though it was completely different and effectively Russia -in-Ukraine who shot that plane down. Well, I hope I’m wrong but it seems like there is anti Zelensky nudging going on.

Agree the impact on these children and their families is hideous.

Day 266, November 16th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 17 November 2022

🔥 Battlefield update:
🔥 Huliaipole:
Reports of 🇷🇺 starting attack, possible unpleasant results. Partially forces from Kherson. 🇷🇺 planning for same tactic of big and small pincers. Big pincers would go to Huliaipole, Pokrovske, Vasylkivka, Pavlohrad. Pavlohrad was also objective from Izium, so it can’t be excluded that 🇷🇺 would attempt to reach it from east again.
🇷🇺 can attempt to sell capture of Donetsk and Luhansk districts as war objective for internal audience, but they won’t succeed. This will continue until end of war.

🔥 Pavlivka:
heavy battles, 🇷🇺 would like to reach Kurakhove in order to encircle Marinka.

🔥 Marinka-Bakhmut:
same battles as before

🔥 Bilohorivka:
attempts to push 🇺🇦 out

🔥 Kreminna-Svatove:
relatively quiet, local battles (3-4 non-concentrated attempts per day)

🔥 Khakiv, Chernihiv, Sumy:
shelling continues.

🔥 Kherson:
🇺🇦 continues to use artillery and rockets to strike a lot of targets on left [east] bank of Dnipro. No breaks for 🇷🇺, promising results. Chaplynka airfield can’t be used anymore, it’s getting hit a lot.

🔥 Belarus:
🇷🇺 forces very slowly accumulating, no risk of attack so far. 🇧🇾 Belarus complains of 🇺🇦 blowing up bridges. 🇺🇦 is taking preventive measures, blowing up it’s own bridges. If 🇧🇾 wants revenge, they can blow up their own bridges.

🔥 Missile in Poland:
Apparently it was S-300 launched by 🇺🇦. Zelensky called for 🇺🇦 specialists to participate in investigation, to clear any doubts. Regardless of who’s missile was it, guilty is 🇷🇺 for starting aggression. Reaction / denial of Peskov again confirms that 🇷🇺 is afraid of NATO.

🔥 G20 summit:
Lavrov left, before summit even started. There was no attempt to call for negotiations, because that’s impossible while they are attacking infrastructure.
Half of G20 want to keep doing business as usual – 🇨🇳 China, 🇮🇳 India, etc, thus no collective condemnation.

🔥 Air defense:
Comparing air defense efficiency on 10th of October vs 15th of November link]. It’s clearly visible, that air defense is getting better – more intercepted missiles, less hits and deaths.
Stoltenberg clearly said that strengthening 🇺🇦 air defense is priority, partially to avoid more missiles hitting NATO territory.
Modern air defense, like NASAMS currently has accuracy of 10/10, and is less prone to loss of control and accidents.

🔥 Ramstein meeting:
🇸🇪 Sweden will provide weapons for $ 287 mln, which includes air-defense
🇪🇸 Spain will provide 2 more MIM-23 HAWK air defense systems and missiles
🇨🇦 Canada providing additional aid of $500 mln and winter clothing
🇩🇪 Germany air defense, artillery, ammo for MRLS
🇬🇷 Greece 155mm artillery shells
🇵🇱 Poland additional artillery, anti-tank weapons, short range air-defense (likely Piorun MANPADS)

🔥 Negotiations:
For some reason, at international level of 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 🇬🇧 is necessary to talk about negotiations. This will cease.
🇺🇦 has been forced to listen about negotiations for 9 months, even more in last few months, but it’s not going to happen before 🇷🇺 has left 🇺🇦 territory.

🔥 Iran:
Shahed drone manufacturer got included in sanctions. 🇮🇷 Iran has received all possible signals to stop

Today's losses