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Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

989 replies

MagicFox · 12/11/2022 16:40

We're still here, on 35 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

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86
Igotjelly · 17/11/2022 11:56

Not sure if anyone is watching the Autumn fiscal statement. Did I just hear the Chancellor say that he confirm defence spending will continue to be 2% in line with the UK's NATO commitment? Also wants the integrated review updated ahead of the next full budget to inform defence spending.

Igotjelly · 17/11/2022 11:56

Assume that means Ben Wallace didn't get his 3% then.

Vigneau · 17/11/2022 12:13

Minimum of 2%. Semantics.

Igotjelly · 17/11/2022 12:17

Vigneau · 17/11/2022 12:13

Minimum of 2%. Semantics.

If he intended to spend 3% he would have promised that. By announcing 2% minimum it means he has no obligation to meet 3% and, in the current financial climate, almost certainly won't.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/11/2022 12:26

Given it was all over Twitter last night I haven't seen anything today that references this:

Explosions reported at Dzhankoy, Crimea. This is the sight of an air field.

Locals reported have said there were about 80 units of equipment stationed there including Su-25 attack aircraft and Su-34 bombers, which are apparently on fire.

Are we to assume it was 'fake news'?

Vigneau · 17/11/2022 12:26

Exactly. What we need is a little black book.

Hancox432 · 17/11/2022 12:29

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/11/2022 12:26

Given it was all over Twitter last night I haven't seen anything today that references this:

Explosions reported at Dzhankoy, Crimea. This is the sight of an air field.

Locals reported have said there were about 80 units of equipment stationed there including Su-25 attack aircraft and Su-34 bombers, which are apparently on fire.

Are we to assume it was 'fake news'?

Sky news mentioned it in their live updates at 07:15 this morning. The source being a Belarusian news outlet.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/11/2022 12:52

Can't have been as big a deal as I thought it was Hancock, I thought a lot of Russian AirPower had been knocked out.

notimagain · 17/11/2022 12:57

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/11/2022 12:26

Given it was all over Twitter last night I haven't seen anything today that references this:

Explosions reported at Dzhankoy, Crimea. This is the sight of an air field.

Locals reported have said there were about 80 units of equipment stationed there including Su-25 attack aircraft and Su-34 bombers, which are apparently on fire.

Are we to assume it was 'fake news'?

No idea what actually went on but there's certainly been some concern expressed in places about the provenance some of the images that were circulating on social media purportedly showing the effects of that attack.

ScrollingLeaves · 17/11/2022 14:19

From the Telegraph
about the missile that landed in z Poland and killed two people.

Warsaw said evidence so far suggests it was a self-destruct system that failed to work properly, not a Russian missile as initially feared
By
Matthew Day
WARSAW and
Nick Squires
ROME
17 November 2022 β€’ 11:11am

The Ukrainian missile that killed two farmworkers when it landed in Poland malfunctioned and failed to self-destruct after missing its initial target, the Polish authorities said on Thursday.

The incident, which took place on Tuesday near the Polish village of Przewodow which lies close to the Ukrainian border, is now the subject of a criminal investigation in Poland.

In an interview for the Polish news channel TVN24, Jakub Kumoch, the foreign policy advisor to the Polish president, said that evidence suggests that the deaths resulted from a tragic accident caused by an errant missile

β€œToday there are many indications that a missile used to shoot down Russian missiles missed its target and then the self-destruct system failed to work and this, unfortunately, led to tragedy,” said Mr Kumoch.

The missile was likely launched from an aging S-300 air defence system that was targeting Russian rockets.

Mr Kumoch added that the investigators had film footage of the incident in which β€œjust for a very short time you can see a certain sequence of events.”

Mr Kumoch said he could not elaborate further because the film’s contents were classified.

Polish soldiers pass by the police check point next to site where a missile strike killed two men in the eastern Poland village of Przewodow

^It comes after US intelligence sources said that it was a Ukrainian, and not a Russian missile as initially feared, that crashed into the field.*

The Ukrainian government has denied that conclusion, insisting a Russian missile was responsible

Speaking in the Commons on Thursday, Rishi Sunak noted it is possible the explosion, which killed two people, was caused by Ukrainian munition deployed in self-defence, but said Kyiv could not be blamed for trying to defend itself.

"Russia launched over 80 separate missile strikes on Ukraine," the prime minister said. "The targets were innocent people and civilian infrastructure. The aim was to cast the population into darkness and cold."

"During the bombardment of Ukraine on Tuesday an explosion took place in eastern Poland," he added.

"As we've heard the Polish and American presidents say, it is possible the explosion was caused by Ukrainian munition which was deployed in self-defence - and whether or not this proves to be the case, no blame can be placed on a country trying to defend itself against such a barrage.

The blame belongs solely to Russia."

Poland has also been keen to stress that although a Ukrainian missile may have been responsible for the death of the two Poles it does not hold Ukraine responsible.

β€œThere is a misunderstanding; some people in Ukraine feel that their country has somehow been accused,” said Mr Kumuch. β€œBut it hasn’t been, it was just involved in an incident, and it is not Ukraine’s fault. No one denies the right for Ukraine to defend itself.

As part of concerted and extensive efforts to avoid any friction in Polish-Ukrainian relations, the Polish government has said that it has no objection to Ukrainians joining an investigation into the blast that already has an American presence.

The two Polish farmworkers who were killed by the missile were employed by an Italian agribusiness, it emerged on Thursday, with the company saying it was "in shock" at their deaths.

Bogdan Wos and Bogdan Ciupek worked for Agrocom and were harvesting maize when they were killed by the missile.

"What happened has left us in shock. They were very loyal employees. They each leave behind two children," said Federico Viola, an Italian businessman who founded the company more than two decades ago. It produces maize, grains and other agricultural products in Poland.

He said the company knew the workers as "Bogdan the first" and "Bogdan the second", so named for the order in which they started working for the firm.

"We never thought such a thing could happen but it did, and who knows if it might happen again, " he added.

Surplus2requirements · 17/11/2022 14:58

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/11/2022 12:26

Given it was all over Twitter last night I haven't seen anything today that references this:

Explosions reported at Dzhankoy, Crimea. This is the sight of an air field.

Locals reported have said there were about 80 units of equipment stationed there including Su-25 attack aircraft and Su-34 bombers, which are apparently on fire.

Are we to assume it was 'fake news'?

The reports of explosions seems correct but may have been Russian Air defence with no ground hits

L1ttledrummergirl · 17/11/2022 15:03

Good words from the Polish government.

ScrollingLeaves · 17/11/2022 15:09

@notimagain and @MissConductUS

Given the missile that hit Poland is an S300, also used by Russia,
I was wondering what the names are of Russian missiles which have been hitting Ukraine infrastructure recently, or are they all the Russian drones?

Are any by any chance S 300 including some adaptations of these that can travel further than 150km (I read these can exist).

I have seen an interesting suggestion/hypothesis that if the co-ordinates of Lviv and Kviv were muddled by a Russian missile operator in south Belarus misreading coordinates, I think it was meaning entering the latitude of Kviv. but the longitude of Lviv - the Polish villlage is almost that spot.

How far as the crow flies are some spots in south Belarus to Lviv? (I am sorry I can only get road distances based on curving rroad routes when I google.

I could send a link but don’t want to if you think it is nonsense.

ScrollingLeaves · 17/11/2022 15:10

I meant β€œAre they all the Iranian drones?”

Hancox432 · 17/11/2022 15:12

ScrollingLeaves · 17/11/2022 15:09

@notimagain and @MissConductUS

Given the missile that hit Poland is an S300, also used by Russia,
I was wondering what the names are of Russian missiles which have been hitting Ukraine infrastructure recently, or are they all the Russian drones?

Are any by any chance S 300 including some adaptations of these that can travel further than 150km (I read these can exist).

I have seen an interesting suggestion/hypothesis that if the co-ordinates of Lviv and Kviv were muddled by a Russian missile operator in south Belarus misreading coordinates, I think it was meaning entering the latitude of Kviv. but the longitude of Lviv - the Polish villlage is almost that spot.

How far as the crow flies are some spots in south Belarus to Lviv? (I am sorry I can only get road distances based on curving rroad routes when I google.

I could send a link but don’t want to if you think it is nonsense.

I'm not sure on the answer to your question. My guess is that the video evidence is quite telling though that it was not a Russian missile.

MissConductUS · 17/11/2022 15:31

ScrollingLeaves · 17/11/2022 15:09

@notimagain and @MissConductUS

Given the missile that hit Poland is an S300, also used by Russia,
I was wondering what the names are of Russian missiles which have been hitting Ukraine infrastructure recently, or are they all the Russian drones?

Are any by any chance S 300 including some adaptations of these that can travel further than 150km (I read these can exist).

I have seen an interesting suggestion/hypothesis that if the co-ordinates of Lviv and Kviv were muddled by a Russian missile operator in south Belarus misreading coordinates, I think it was meaning entering the latitude of Kviv. but the longitude of Lviv - the Polish villlage is almost that spot.

How far as the crow flies are some spots in south Belarus to Lviv? (I am sorry I can only get road distances based on curving rroad routes when I google.

I could send a link but don’t want to if you think it is nonsense.

The long range missiles that Ru is using against Ukrainian targets are the Kh-55 and Kh-101 cruise missiles fired by strategic bombers, the sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, and the ground-launched Iskander missiles.

They have also used S-300 air defense missiles in a ground attack mode as a sort of improvised rocket artillery.

Even if they've somehow added to the standard range of the S300, it likely won't have been a huge increase. Also, you can't hide an S300 deployment. It's a whole circus of launchers, radar emitters, command vehicles, etc. They are tracked very closely. I'm skeptical that the Russians could have one in range that we don't know about.

notimagain · 17/11/2022 15:36

Are any by any chance S 300 including some adaptations of these that can travel further than 150km (I read these can exist).

TBH care needs to taken over drawing too many conclusions these "ranges" being quoted either in the press, SM or elsewhere when it comes to SAMs or Air to air missiles (AIM).

Warning, might be incoming TL;DR:

Most maximum "ranges" for surface to air missiles or air to air missiles you see quoted area almost something akin to the maximum "pull the trigger" radar range based on the target directly moving towards the launcher, often at high speed, plus other favourable factors.

What then happens is that to some extent that the target flies onto the missile, so if you fire at, say 150 km on radar the missile doesn't actually fly out 150 km, it meets the target somewhere along route.

The dynamics for surface to surface use are utterly different, (in fact there are none)..the target doesn't move, so the missile doesn't get any help...so range is less...

For surface to surface you need to look and see if you can find a pure "ballistic" rage quoted...some sources give it, some don't (most SAMS don't have a surface to surface range so it's not a factor)... the odds if you do find a ballistic range it will be much much less than the ranges quoted for use against airborne targets.

Igotjelly · 17/11/2022 16:03

"Former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi believes he is the one who can persuade his old friend Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and end the war in Ukraine, and intends to do so before Christmas, according to the Spectator.
The 86-year-old media tycoon is after a peace deal, mediated by himself, and his private jet is already on standby, the publication writes."

Um OK then Confused

Igotjelly · 17/11/2022 16:11

Also, reported in CNN - "A source in the president's office in Kyiv has confirmed to CNN that Ukrainian investigators have arrived at the site in Poland struck by a missile on Tuesday.

President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded Wednesday that a Ukrainian team should be allowed to join the investigation, which is being led by Polish and US experts."

MissConductUS · 17/11/2022 16:12

I found this on the use of the S300 in ground attack mode:

Russia Now Firing S-300 Surface-To-Air Missiles At Land Targets In Ukraine: Official

At the time, Belarus was known to use the S-300PS (NATO codename SA-10 Grumble) version of the system, introduced in the mid-1980s and which includes 5V55R missiles which a maximum engagement range of up to 56 miles against aerial targets. The Naviny article states that the maximum range of the (Belarusian) S-300 against ground targets is 75 miles, being limited by the guidance system, rather than the propulsion.

There are a number of varients of the S300 missile that are used by both Ukr and Ru. See the article for more details.

notimagain · 17/11/2022 16:58

MissConductUS · 17/11/2022 16:12

I found this on the use of the S300 in ground attack mode:

Russia Now Firing S-300 Surface-To-Air Missiles At Land Targets In Ukraine: Official

At the time, Belarus was known to use the S-300PS (NATO codename SA-10 Grumble) version of the system, introduced in the mid-1980s and which includes 5V55R missiles which a maximum engagement range of up to 56 miles against aerial targets. The Naviny article states that the maximum range of the (Belarusian) S-300 against ground targets is 75 miles, being limited by the guidance system, rather than the propulsion.

There are a number of varients of the S300 missile that are used by both Ukr and Ru. See the article for more details.

Thanks..

As a result of those figures hopefully a final'ish muse from me on this topic.

We know there were a lot of Russian missile strikes on Ukraine on the day in question. Lviv was a target.

You'd expect Lviv - major population centre - to have some protection from S-300 batteries. They'd probably be situated in the vicinity of the city, not the middle. There would have been Ukraine S-300 fired, possibly a large number, on the day.

Quick look at a map shows where the missile landed (Prezwodow) is a short S-300 chucking distance from where it's quite possible some of those Ukraine batteries are positioned.

Using Occams razor isn't without it's risks but it might be worth considering it's use here.

lifesabitchandthenyoudie · 17/11/2022 19:00

I'm not caught up yet, only up to page 20 but can I just say how great it is how well people on here can debate and talk to each other. A little problem sorted out amicably and quickly, just by talking to each other. How I wish the world could act together like this more! Very proud to be a tiny little part of this wonderful group. Have a biscuit. 😘

Greenshake · 17/11/2022 19:26

@lifesabitchandthenyoudie ❀️

ScrollingLeaves · 17/11/2022 20:40

@notimagain snd @MissEstherDaniel

Thank you both for taking the time to answer my questions about the possibility that Russia sometimes fires S300 as surface to air missiles at land targets in Ukraine. (I had been wondering about these being aimed at Lviv and Kyiv from south Belarus.)

That was an interesting article about Russian use of S300 MissConduct, thank you for the link.

I agree notimagain that usually the principles of Occam’s Razor are useful, and agree that the most likely explanation is that the missile which killed the farmers in Poland originated in Ukraine, having been intended to intercept a Russian missile aimed at Lviv.

it is also diffuses many problems so it is good I feel that Ukraine will be involved in the investigation so they can see for themselves, and not feel they are being used.

ScrollingLeaves · 17/11/2022 20:55

Hancox432 Β· Today 15:12
I'm not sure on the answer to your question. My guess is that the video evidence is quite telling though that it was not a Russian missile

Thanks for answering Hancox439 -