Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

Redtoothbrush was attacked by another poster but I couldn’t make heads or tails of the other persons point.

Oh go on then. Ill even bring some Belgian Chocolates from our deeeeeeelicious local maker for everyone.

Reflections from Frank Gardner on lessons to learn from 'The Poland Incident'-

"There are a number of lessons to emerge from Tuesday’s missile strike on Polish soil and its aftermath.

• The first and most obvious is that it’s best not to jump to conclusions before the facts are established. Poland and the US have both earned praise for their cautious reaction and truthful statements.
• Ukraine’s government, on the other hand, gave Moscow something of a PR victory by prematurely claiming it must have been a Russian missile when Nato believes it wasn’t. An easy mistake to make for a country coming under a barrage of more than 90 missiles that day but an embarrassing one for Kyiv.
• The second is that if this war is going to stretch on into 2023 and Russia retains the ability to fire long range missiles at the far west of Ukraine, then this is quite possibly going to happen again. Nato needs to be prepared for that.
• Thirdly, as stocks of high-precision munitions run low, more and more crude weapons are likely to be deployed, with the attendant risk that they will miss their target."

Greenshake
. I didn’t realise that asking if someone was ok would be interpreted as an attempt to shut someone down, which is quite ridiculous.

“You all right love? You seem a bit peaky today”
Whether that is kind or not depends on the context.

Hinting there are the emotional ones and the rational ones in this discussion could easily be misunderstood too.

Thanks for those handy tips, but the conversation has since moved on.

Did someone say tea?

<homes in on essentials>

I'd like a cup, one sugar, no milk, thanks. 😀

The Ukraine Defense Contact Group meets today. For those unfamiliar, it's an ad hoc organization of about 50 countries providing military aid to Ukraine. They meet to discuss new requirements and coordinate who is doing what to avoid gaps and duplication of supplies.

Here's the US SECDEF Lloyd Austin delivering the opening remarks. You may not want to watch the whole 15 minutes, but the first five minutes or so are pretty inspiring. What a contrast with that toad Shoigu.

How does one envisage the war/invasion of Ukraine coming to a complete end? Surely it can’t last forever?

It feels similar to asking when covid would end back in March 2020!

Done, MissConductUS, and I'll have one of DucksOfWar's marvellous Belgian chocolates that she's so kind as to share.

Plus a malted milk from Greenshakes, obvs. Chocolates just don't dunk.

Thanks for the continuing excellent links, everyone.

Igotjelly, that's very reassuring from Frank Gardner.

I really fancy malted milk now. I love malted milk biscuits with tea and coffee

Here's a bit of good news. The Pentagon has ordered half a billion dollars worth of M30 and M31 missiles for the HIMARS. This is in addition to a recent $179m order for additional HIMARS vehicles.

Army awards Lockheed $500M deal to replenish rockets stockpile

@Wannago

Thanks @MissConductUS , that is good to know and reassuring for those of us who can't vote in the US, but still get very affected by whoever it is that is voted in. Whatever my views on US domestic politics, they don't personally affect me, but this does.

I understand completely. The world would be a much saner and safer place with DeSantis as president vs Trump. We should also remember that two years is an eternity in politics and a lot will happen between now and 2024.

I love Belgian chocolates

I got introduced to them when I used to work for ICI and the bit I worked in had a plant in Ghent which I used to visit periodically

Can we please stop mentioning chocolate? I have a bar of dairy milk in my desk drawer I'm trying to ignore. It's Ghirardelli's, which is the poshest American brand.

Interesting from Stoltenburg who has said this war will eventually end at the Negotiating table. However it's up to Ukraine to decide when they are in a strong enough position to start this.

Also Macron today Speaking with Xi about China becoming a mediator to stop any more huge ground assaults before February.

I do believe alot more Diplomacy is happening behind the scenes than many countries will want to let on.

I have been lurking not posting in recent weeks bits have to say that the the Ghirardelli darm sqaures with raspberry filling are the best. The only American chocolate I really like.

I have some booja booja truffles but probably not enough to go around as they are super expensive...

Interesting comments from Mark Milley tonight saying the chance of an outright Ukrainian victory being low but that there may be a space where a political solution is found where Russia withdraw - reported on Sky News.

Blimey, I'm late to the party. Tea would be lovely thank you.

It's been a tough day all around today but I'm putting my faith in the diplomats

Putin is still a knob and needs to get the fuck out of all of Ukraine. Whether it's two lives in Poland or many thousands in Ukraine, he and his generals need to be held accountable. Whether that missile was a Russian one on the attack or a defensive Ukrainian one is of no consequence if cool heads keep talking. Ultimately it comes down to Putin and his thirst for the death of thousands.

We need to keep the pressure on our politicians to continue in their support.

Did anyone see the footage of Xi having a pop at Trudeau? He confronted him about the details of their conversation being leaked to Canadian media.

There is a bit of me that thinks good for him, diplomacy to be effective needs to be built on mutual trust that what’s said behind closed doors will stay there.

Things feel different after this issue with Poland, I just feel like the vibe has shifted and I can’t tell if it’s in my own head or if things are fundamentally different now.

I think it might have been you who yesterday suggested that the whole thing will have been a big reality check for all parties. I don't think anything will change on the ground in Ukraine in the near future. But certainly diplomats seem to be working double time to figure out an end game for this war.

I think the shift is not going to be in Ukraines favour sadly

The truth is that we may all have to bear a lot more for our freedoms. This is probably the moment when dictatorships and autocracies, under which 70% of the world's population exist, form to challenge western values.

You can sense it. I think it is tangible now. Some of the statements made by leaders in UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bolsanaro, Trump, Hungary, China and some of the African nations. They want a worldwide Mafia and I think their pressure is going to grow. They want people living under autocracies. They want to suppress freedoms. They are fearful of the internet.

If we are not prepared to fight that, we have already lost.

At least Bolsonaro is no longer leader of Braxil

And a Centre-Left grouping won in the recent Danish elections.

Plus the anticipated "red wave" didn't happen in the US mid-terms - it's at most a faint ripple, with the Trump endorsed candidates doing badly.

So it's not all doom and gloom in the world

We need to take the positives where we can find them.