Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

You've picked and criticised at Zelenskyy at length in the last pages. You want to exclude Ukraine from the site. You're now picking at Poland.

What's your agenda here?

Zelenskyy now saying he has no doubt that the missile that struck Poland wasn't Ukrainian. This is all so fucked.

Ducks seriously - are you ok? You seem to have taken the events of the last 24 hours very badly and it’s evident from your posts.

I don’t believe it either. I understand why they are saying it is - but I don’t believe it.

Thanks @MissConductUS , that is good to know and reassuring for those of us who can't vote in the US, but still get very affected by whoever it is that is voted in. Whatever my views on US domestic politics, they don't personally affect me, but this does.

Do you think it was accidental, even if it was Russian?

I think this will be a mistake if he continues down that road.

Yeah I do think it was accidental because I don’t see the gain for Russia. I just don’t believe it was a Ukrainian missile.

I agree, and it really pains me to say that.

Yes. I am angry but yes.

I learned some years back to observe the general tenor of people's posts and the proportional amount of time they spend with positive/negative tones in their posts. It's really quite revealing. Also what they do or don't answer when posed with a direct question, and some phrases.

There is always the possibility of a mistake! Especially dealing with subtle situations. But something is wrong when a poster is 90% critical and then starts to suggest removing a heavily-concerned party's agency - and there's no one more involved in this than Ukraine.

I don't have any agenda. I'm happy with all the support we are giving to Ukraine but I also agree with NATOs stance of no boots on the ground.

I'm personally not willing to let this escalate to a conflict between nuclear powers over an overshot missile whether it's Ukranian or Russian. Some people are willing to and that's fine if it's their opinion.

My worry is and I could be wrong that Zelenskey is seeing an opportunity here to get the west to provide things that before would have been a red line for them previously. I get why he would do it as it would help Ukraine immensely. throwing accusations of an attack on a NATO country an hour after it hit the press for me was just too much of a knee jerk reaction that I wasn't very comfortable with.

Again none of us are experts hear and I'm sure the reality of what happened will be out in the coming weeks.

ReleaseTheDucksofWar - today 16:21
Whatever anyone says, Russia will twist it and misrepresent it. Just as they've always done, just as they always will

Yes, even if the USA and Poland investigate Russia might well say they ‘fixed’ the answer ( if the answer looks bad for Russia). After all, Russia has been saying all along that they are fighting the US/NATO.

What's wrong with Ukraine say getting more air defenses? seems a bloody good idea to me. Or ATACAMs.

So far they have been extremely responsible in their use (I hope no one is suggesting they deliberately fired anything into Poland, if it was a Ukrainian missile).

I believe this was an accident.

Whether it was Russian or Ukrainian is kind of irrelevant as either way, it's still Russia's fault. If it's a Russian missile, it's 100% Russia's fault. If it's a Ukraine missile, it's still 100% Russia's fault. If Russia fucked off back to Russia and left its neighbours alone none of this would be happening. It is all 100% Russia's fault.

Ultimately, and it’s a hard truth, Ukraine are reliant on the Western support continuing (from the USA in particular). Zelenskyy cannot risk biting the hand that feeds, and this will be a danger should this site access issue kick off.

It's Poland's territory so whoever they let onto their land is their prerogative. If initial findings are it is a stray Ukrainian missile (perfectly understandable and NATO have already said Ukraine are not to blame for that - don't forget everything stems from the Russian aggressor here), then Ukraine have a right to request for access to examine what is supposed to be their own missile fragments. Who better to confirm than Ukraine?

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar, it is not for NATO or anyone to infantilise Ukraine and deny them the opportunity to inspect and right of reply. Have an independent body go along with them to stop any accusations of planting evidence but I don't see why Ukraine shouldn't be allowed to go into Poland.

If it is found to be Russian, well, tough titties. Poland will not let them onto their soil for obvious reasons including that is ample track record that Russia WILL intimidate, threaten, plant evidence, fabricate evidence and lie through their teeth anyway.

Russia does not deserve equality of treatment. Let's not forget they started an illegal war which has caused untold suffering to begin with.

Has US or Poland said Ukraine cannot go?

Appreciation from both sides to both sides is due. Russia would have carried on attacking other countries if Ukraine had fallen - Ukraine was the unlucky one that got in the way.

I don't like the idea that Zelenskyy is an attack dog that will bite the hand that feeds it. Nor should he have to walk on eggshells. Common politeness and appreciation on both sides seems appropriate. Why should this event lead to the West cutting Ukraine off from help, which is what this phrase implies? Certainly there has been no implication of this from the US, indeed there is that request to congress for 37 billion in aid for Ukraine.

No, but apparently they both need to agree to it happening.

Equally, I think Ukraine needs to really appreciate that the West have supported them hugely. There were rumours that Biden did once have to point that out!

Hancox432 · Today 16:42

I'm personally not willing to let this escalate to a conflict between nuclear powers over an overshot missile whether it's Ukranian or Russian. Some people are willing to and that's fine if it's their opinion

Who said an accidentally overshot missile by Russia, let alone Ukraine, would lead to a conflict between nuclear powers?

In all the main news reports I saw yesterday it was stressed that they can be accidentally shot. It was stressed that Article 4, not Article 5 would be initiated. This, whatever Ukraine’s feelings.

this is the precise phrasing as reported by NEXTA:

NEXTA
@nexta_tv
·
6m
Zelenskyy: "I have no doubt that it was not our missile or our missile strike. We have to participate in the investigation. I want us to be fair and if it was the use of our air defense, then I want this evidence."

Seems eminently reasonable to me.

My worry is and I could be wrong that Zelenskey is seeing an opportunity here to get the west to provide things that before would have been a red line for them previously. I get why he would do it as it would help Ukraine immensely.

Like any entity Nato has finite resources. The last thing Zelensky wants or needs is Nato directing its future resources to situs states. And he knows that.

The missile landed close to the borders of both Russia and Ukraine. They can travel fast and far and a deflection with limited damage could send either off at a different tangent. Rare, but even the bell shaped curve never quite touches 'zero'.

@Greenshake, spare ReleaseDucks the head tilt. I agree with her sentiments. It is unconscionable how missiles landing in Poland v landing in Ukraine should make a difference.

It is only because Russia is nuclear armed and Ukraine is not a NATO member that there are no NATO boots on the ground or air cover and Ukraine is fighting WWIII on their own land for Europe at the cost of their own citizen's lives.

Too many people pushing for a peace settlement are really only thinking about themselves.

With all the thousands of missiles launched already in this war, we should be surprised if one did not stray off course into Poland, or Belarus for that matter.