Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

. I'm sure many are happy to offer him a free pass on this one

Are you?

I think Zelensky was extremely restrained. It must be absolutely galling to see the entire world go absolutely nuts over the tragic death of 2 Polish farmers while almost 700 of your own citizens are killed in the same attack.

This is so true. I think it probably just underlines and highlights for them the fact that, for all the nice words and shiny weaponry, Ukraine is not a NATO member state and will resist getting involved directly, at the cost of Ukrainian lives.

I agree. Good point.

The difference that the distance of 6 km between NATO and non-NATO soil makes.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

". I'm sure many are happy to offer him a free pass on this one

Are you?"

+++

It's irrelevant because he has effectively already been given a free pass because NATO did not follow in a knee jerk reaction and waited for the facts, so that no retaliatory action was required.

However it will damage his credibility in the eyes of NATO country leaders and cause them to question a little more about what Zelensky says in future.

Ukraine walked back on their initial statement. You don't ever see Russia do that after checking the facts other than to lie and lie some more than then contradict their own lies.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg after the meeting of the North Atlantic Council on Poland

www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_209063.htm

"But let me be clear.
This is not Ukraine’s fault.
Russia bears ultimate responsibility, as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine."

He is worried atm about the likelihood of being sold down river by allies.

Its not just the bombs, its the rumblings about making a deal.

Ukraine will push on this winter for that reason alone. They know they will have a limited time to reclaim land and liberate their people.

They know there's a change in commitment to Ukraine approaching.

I feel a new sense of desperation creeping in tbh.

Ukraine have been patient and cautious, but I also think it's starting to frustrate. I think the hope was to regain Kherson in September. And I think advances in the East, since the last breakthrough have progressed more slowly than hoped, partly because Russia have thrown so many speedbumps in the way.

I get the sense that advances and a breakthrough will occur around Svatove and Kremmina but the weather and road conditions are making it perilous and treachously slow.

And its not clear yet where other breakthroughs might occur. There's talk of heading toward Melitopol, but that's not necessarily wise. Breaking logistics to Crimea is more important. But a massive grind. Its all a massive grind.

As you get cold, hungry, the power is off and you know that the vulnerable are about to suffer a winter in that, i think it's all compounded. The very purpose of the Russian strikes on electricity and water is to grind Ukrainian morale. That's clearly happening from top to bottom imo.

The US is talking about a what was it, 37 billion (!!!!!) support budget for Ukraine and Sweden has said it's arranging a support package worth more than all their 6 previous packages put together (haven't seen this confirmed elsewhere).

With luck this incident, dreadful as it is for the poor bloody killed people and their families, will actually increase support for Ukraine.

Agreed with people upthread who commented that this sort of death is normalized for Ukraine though in the press.

Agree that it must be so, so, so miserable and relentless for the Ukrainians. I noticed Steve Rosenberg from the BBC doing his first (I think) broadcast from Moscow in the snow this year which reminded me of just how freezing it's getting there already.

There must be a fear from Zelensky that the West will say you know what, give them the territory, we're sick of the inconvenience it's causing all of us. And the fact that everybody leapt into action when 2 from a NATO country died, when hundreds of Ukrainians die every day just underlined that whilst we'll provide money and equipment, the Ukrainians are really on their own when it comes to boots on the ground.

I'm sure they've all absolutely had more than enough, and now it's getting dark and bitterly cold. Hideous.

@TokyoSushi

yes :(

There are a few rumours of what it's like in Mariupol. They aren't pleasant.

Fladdermus · Today 13:39
I think Zelensky was extremely restrained. It must be absolutely galling to see the entire world go absolutely nuts over the tragic death of 2 Polish farmers while almost 700 of your own citizens are killed in the same attack.

Yes. this is a good point. Also, no matter how many bombs Russian
has sent to Ukraine over the last nine months, how many Ukrainians civilians killed and tortured, or Ukrainian children deported, should one Ukrainian missile go to Russia from Ukraine, that would be condemned and seen as escalation, and a crime.

To be clearer though, however dreadful the two Polish farmers’ deaths, the fuss is more over this having possibly been a signal to draw other countries in to war, rather than to really say the Polish deaths matter more than Ukrainian ones.

Shortly after the invasion, DeSantis called Putin an “authoritarian gas station attendant with some legacy nuclear weapons” and praised the Ukrainian resistance. He also said that Putin had been emboldened by Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan, which may have some truth to it.

Since then, he hasn't really spoken about Ukraine. As a state governor, it's not his role to do so. I expect that will change next year if he starts signaling a decision to run in the primaries. He served as an officer in the US Navy after getting out of law school and was deployed to combat zones, as were the Navy SEALs. So he's no shrinking violet. Trump was a draft dodger.

He's generally considered a younger, smarter politician with similar conservative views to Trump but without the scandals, chaos, and relentless narcissism. I think he has a very strong chance of winning the republican primaries and the general election. He's made the smart decision that there is nothing to be gained by reacting to Trump's insults and rolling around in the mud with him. His 19-point victory in Florida speaks to his broad appeal as a candidate and Trump knows it.

From an international point of view, I would expect him to be a strong supporter of NATO, and Ukraine.

@blueshoes

"Ukraine walked back on their initial statement. You don't ever see Russia do that after checking the facts other than to lie and lie some more than then contradict their own lies.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg after the meeting of the North Atlantic Council on Poland

www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_209063.htm

"But let me be clear.
This is not Ukraine’s fault.
Russia bears ultimate responsibility, as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.""

+++

Firstly absolutely this is not Ukraine's fault- there would have been no need for the Ukrainians to be firing air defence missiles if the Russians weren't attacking them with missiles. Secondly air defence missiles do tend to have a mind of their own, they need to be very agile to intercept fast moving incoming surface to surface missiles so it really isn't surprising one did so and ended up across the border in Poland.
Thirdly you can't really compare Russia and Ukraine on the manner in which statements are made and facts checked or not. One is an authoritarian dictatorship where the truth is less relevant whereas the other is a democracy and held to scrutiny.
I don't think Ukraine had much choice on walking back on its original statement that it was a Russian missile as it will be relatively easy to determine from the wreckage.

That said there is a worrying development that Ukraine wants "immediate access" to the site of the explosion in Poland and is ready to give partners evidence of a "Russian trail", the secretary of Ukraine's security council has said. I really hope this is not an attempt to tamper with the evidence in order to put the blame on Russia and escalate the situation. If they did try that then it would be digging a deeper hole and really undermine them in the eyes of the West.

Far better to say "sorry Poland, my bad but if the Russians weren't attacking us in the first place then this would never have happened.

That said there is a worrying development that Ukraine wants "immediate access" to the site of the explosion in Poland and is ready to give partners evidence of a "Russian trail", the secretary of Ukraine's security council has said. I really hope this is not an attempt to tamper with the evidence in order to put the blame on Russia and escalate the situation. If they did try that then it would be digging a deeper hole and really undermine them in the eyes of the West

There is the possibility that this really was an accident - with this amount of missiles being launched, there was always going to be an accident some time. Plus how Russia has praised Biden makes it look like someone in Russia really doesn't want this to escalate.

But there is a (probably smaller but not vanishingly small) chance that actually it was Russian and either still a mistake or a deliberate provocation - but the leaders will not admit it because they are very reluctant to go to war. If it was deliberate, then mis-attributing it would make sense.

If it wasn't an accident then at some point a real accident is very likely to happen. But we will never know for sure, and actually I think Ukraine has a point here. if it was their debris they have a right to examine the site.

Polish PM has said both Poland and the US would have to agree to give Ukraine access to the site. I don't think it would be a good look for Zelenskey to question the results of a Polish and US led investigation.

Personally giving them access just gives Russia the Ukraine have tampered with the evidence card.

@Hancox432

"Personally giving them access just gives Russia the Ukraine have tampered with the evidence card."

+++

This

This thread is a tonic compared to the other. 400 measured and sensible rational thoughts and analysis compared to 600+ barmy conspiracies and doom mongering rants

I expect Russia want to get America on side to further try and fuel their ukraine are their own worst enemy narrative

Idon’t think there will be any traction in Ukraine getting access to the site. It will just open up a whole new can of worms and risks becoming a distraction.

Who are we to deny Ukraine the right to examine the site, when it's possible it was one of their anti-missile measures that caused these deaths?

Are denying them a stake in this?

Are we seriously denying them agency?

I think people better think carefully about the decisions they make for Ukraine here. We are not their bosses but their -partners-. They have a right to examine the site.

If that's the case would Russia not also have a right to examine it if Ukraine claim it's theirs? Not that I'm for a minute suggesting we let Russia look at it.

I just don't get what it would achieve. Let the Poles and the US do their research and present their funding to Ukraine. This will give the same analysis without giving Putin a very easy card to play. If Ukraine don't agree with the findings then maybe let them look and present their findings.

We're all with Ukraine on this but I'm going to trust the US results of their investigation more than a Russian or Ukrainian one where emotions will play a huge part.

Polish PM has suggested that it cannot be ruled out that this incident was an 'intentional provocation' from Russia. This feels totally at odds with everyone else's assessment, no?

He also said in the same statement that Poland is safe so quite contradictory.

If Ukraine don't agree with the findings then maybe let them look and present their findings.

What, after days, possibly weeks?

You seriously can't see the problem in this?

Removing Ukraine's ability to examine possibly its own debris in a lethal incident? It's blazingly obvious why Poland wouldn't want Russians on its soil now and even more obvious that you can't trust Russian 'findings'.

Whatever anyone says, Russia will twist it and misrepresent it. Just as they've always done, just as they always will.

Removing Ukraine's right to examine the site is patronizing at best and dis-empowering. It's their damn war and Poland is a strong ally.

Would you like to arrange for negotiations on behalf of Ukraine with Russia too?

If they won’t let the Ukrainians look at the site then I would say they have something to hide personally.