Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

75 missiles shot down and another 650 dead

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that any claim that Ukraine was responsible for Polish deaths was a Russian "conspiracy theory" and that anyone amplifying the message was spreading "Russian propaganda".

US President Joe Biden has said it is "unlikely" that a missile that killed two people in Poland on Tuesday was fired from Russia.

“Hitting NATO territory with missiles. … This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a really significant escalation. Action is needed,” Zelensky said in a video address Tuesday.

Russia's defence ministry on Tuesday denied reports that Russian missiles had hit Polish territory, describing them as "a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation".

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63640344.amp

Firstly let's assume that it was accidental regardless of whether the missile came from Russia or Ukraine as I cannot see a logical reason why either country would want to target a Polish farm.

Secondly either Zelensky and Kuleba are right that it was a Russian missile and therefore Biden is "spreading Russian propaganda" or Biden and Russian Defence Ministey are right that the missile came from Ukraine and that Zelensky and Kubela are trying to use the incident to escalate the situation in order to bring NATO directly into the conflict.

Kubela last commented, as did Zelenskyy hours ago. Ukrainian MPs have now acknowledged that it may have been a Ukrainian air defence missile. The fog of war makes ascertaining facts very difficult and it's likely that the Ukrainians, as well as others, now have access to more robust facts. I don't sense a conspiracy personally, just human error. I certainly don't agree that Ukraine are trying to drag NATo into the conflict directly.

I missed Zelensky's response last night tbh.

I think there must be Ukrainian concern here if it is a Ukrainian missile in terms of it damaging their support.

Biden's response regardless of responsibility, is the correct one. Its balancing interests.

And actually the Russian response looks to be keen to avoid further escalation too, so perhaps is the most important of all (in the context of 'waaahhh nukes! WWIII is about to start!')

My conclusion is that the US and Russia have been communicating and thats not a bad thing. It would be more concerning if they weren't.

Yes I agree, clearly behind the scenes diplomacy has been going on, and so it should.

@Igotjelly

"Kubela last commented, as did Zelenskyy hours ago. Ukrainian MPs have now acknowledged that it may have been a Ukrainian air defence missile. The fog of war makes ascertaining facts very difficult and it's likely that the Ukrainians, as well as others, now have access to more robust facts. I don't sense a conspiracy personally, just human error. I certainly don't agree that Ukraine are trying to drag NATo into the conflict directly."

+++

I accept that Kubela and Zelensky could have commented in the heat of the moment without access to the full facts. But given the seriousness of both the war in Ukraine and very real possibility of escalation doesn't that just make their comments dangerously reckless risking escalation and dragging NATO directly into the conflict?

Fortunately it should be relatively easy to determine whether it was a Russian surface to surface missile that came from Russia or a Ukrainian surface to air defence missile. Not that matters much to the relatives of the two Polish farmers killed.

Sky news reporting that the Kremlin has said US and Biden were very restrained in their response to the issue and that hard work was continuing to extend the grain deal.... Very strange to hear any sort of positive comment come from Russia towards Biden.

'Reckless' would assume that NATO lack agency and an ability to assess a situation and make rational decisions.

Zelensky is emotionally involved in a way the Biden isn't. At times he has used and harassed this for Ukrainian benefit. But that has to also align with NATO concerns and objectives. And thats always been clear from the beginning.

So do I think it dangerous? Not particularly given the nature of the relationship overall.

Should Zelensky have said it? Perhaps not, but it's hard to be critical if he's also in the moment of pressure dealing with the consequences of Russian missiles himself and he's frustrated at times by Nato not always helping him in ways he'd like which has consequences for his people.

He wants to protect his people. That's fair.

I think this is actually really positive.

One word.

China.

The grain deal being prioritised is about third party pressure Russia can't ignore.

Not necessarily exclusively China, but definitely in no small part either.

@RedToothBrush

'Reckless' would assume that NATO lack agency and an ability to assess a situation and make rational decisions.

Zelensky is emotionally involved in a way the Biden isn't. At times he has used and harassed this for Ukrainian benefit. But that has to also align with NATO concerns and objectives. And thats always been clear from the beginning.

So do I think it dangerous? Not particularly given the nature of the relationship overall.

Should Zelensky have said it? Perhaps not, but it's hard to be critical if he's also in the moment of pressure dealing with the consequences of Russian missiles himself and he's frustrated at times by Nato not always helping him in ways he'd like which has consequences for his people.

He wants to protect his people. That's fair.

+++

I agree that in this particular incident it is not that dangerous (except of course to the two Polish farmers). As I previously posted it will be fairly easy to distinguish the wreckage between a Russian surface to surface missile and a Ukrainian air defence missile.

However it would be much much difficult to distinguish the origin and for NATO to assess the situation of say an artillery strike or a sea mine damaging a third party's ship etc.

I also get that Zelensky is frustrated at NATO not helping him with the weapons he wants (principally fighter aircraft) and that his overriding objective is to protect his country and his people. But regardless of being in the heat of the moment the comments by Zelensky and even more so by Kuleba (stating that anyone who suggests it was a Ukrainian missile are pushing Russian propaganda) are at best dangerously reckless in this stage of the conflict, they do undermine their credibility and in another situation with less evidence would risk escalation.

Day 265, November 15th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 16 November 2022

🔥 Missiles in Poland:
🇺🇸 U.S. intelligence confirmed missiles crossing border. 🇷🇺 denies everything, as usual. Unlikely NATO will react by attacking 🇷🇺, or by closing airspace. It’s very complicated political decision, probably it will be forgiven. There is significant difference in intentional attack vs accident. Likely procedure will be similar to MH-17 with courts, proof, compensations.
Even if S-300 are of 🇺🇦 origin, that is consequence of 🇷🇺 aggression used in defense.
Other options are, that there is also 🇷🇺 missile alongside 🇺🇦 S-300, or even both are of 🇷🇺 origin. In any case, direct consequences are unlikely. Indirect consequences will be increase in weapons supplies. 🇺🇸 Biden already requested $37.7 bn for additional assistance to 🇺🇦

🔥 Air strikes:
are probably retaliation of failed negotiations at G-20 or Ankara, just to assert dominance. War never stays at one country, it spills over. The only solution is more weapons, and 🇺🇦 will solve it.
Total 90 winged missiles launched, 73 intercepted, 10 UAV Shahed-136 intercepted, 1 UAV Orion intercepted. 20 missiles hit targets, and those are pretty painful. There are no visible 🇮🇷 Iranian missiles.
Currently 10 million 🇺🇦s are without power, temperature is going to be -6°C. For now 90% have heating.

🔥 Battlefield update:

🔥 Dnipro left [east] bank across from Kherson:
There are no 🇺🇦 landings or mechanized units, no bridgehead. Some partisans with rifles.
Oleshky and Hola-Prystan are not captured, Kinburn Peninsula – reports of battles, probably partisans. Chaplynka was bombed twice by 🇺🇦, multiple explosions. Armyansk, Hromivka, Askaniia-Nova are in reach of M142 HIMARS, and nobody is going to allow 🇷🇺 just sit there. There is no cover, 🇺🇦 will hit every legitimate target.
Reports of 🇷🇺 keeping up to 25km buffer zone from Dnipro river, which means they won’t be able to use tube artillery to hit Kherson. Likely 🇷🇺 will bomb Kherson often, as it does with Nikopol.

🔥 Melitopol:
🇷🇺 seriously concentrating forces, including retreating units from Kherson district. This is because there is steppe in surrounding area. It doesn’t make sense to dig trenches in steppe, they can be just bypassed anywhere. It’s either holding villages, or maneuver battles.

🔥 Vuhledar:
Complicated situation, 🇷🇺 attempted final capture of Pavlivka, but got hit by 🇺🇦 aviation, and became sad. Vuhledar is elevated, and provide excellent view over Pavlivka.

🔥 Marinka, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Bilohorivka, Kreminna:
no significant changes in last 24 hours. 🇷🇺 doing 8 attacks every day. Both sides taking losses, but 🇷🇺 losses are 7-8 times more.

🔥 G-20 conclusions:
Most important are 🇺🇸 Biden’s talks with 🇨🇳 Xi Jinping, agreement on no use of nuclear weapons. Zelensky’s speech pointed out, that 🇺🇦 is ready for negotiations, as soon as 🇷🇺 leaves it’s territory. Before that it’s ultimatum. 88% 🇺🇦 citizens are for complete liberation of 🇺🇦 territories. 🇨🇳 is not interested in the West to win, thus it’s supporting 🇷🇺.

🔥 Oil to Hungary:
🇺🇦 suspended oil transfer in Druzhba pileline, due to loss of pressure. 🇭🇺 Orban called security council. 🇭🇺 yesterday voted for reparations to 🇺🇦, but it also causes a lot of problems. As for oil, there is no electricity to power pumps. There is oil embargo starting from 5th of December anyway.

I picked up on that too. Could this incident actually be the impetus for a positive change? It certainly seems to have been a very big reality check for everyone.

Ds' comment is that at the moment Xi is the single most powerful man in the world as he's the only one that Putin seems even to be half listening to

Even if China continues to abstain on major votes (and iirc, they voted against the Reparations vote that was passed by the UN GA), they do appear to have some influence on Russia.

I would agree.

Frankly I don’t care how they publicly vote so long as they talk some sense privately into Putin.

And they abstained on that recent vote on reparations I believe.

Polish President has confirmed that- the rocket that landed in their country last night was "probably used by Ukrainian air defence". He advised that consideration around whether to invoke Article 4 is ongoing but that this measure will likely not be needed (I hear de-escalation).

Clearly cool, calm heads have prevailed (thank fuck) and this is clearly proof of how effective genuine diplomacy is. I suspect a big wake up call for all sides. We may still see some additional air defence for countries bordering Ukraine and increased military support to Ukraine but think we can breathe a bit of a sigh of relief.

I accept that Kubela and Zelensky could have commented in the heat of the moment without access to the full facts. But given the seriousness of both the war in Ukraine and very real possibility of escalation doesn't that just make their comments dangerously reckless risking escalation and dragging NATO directly into the conflict?

I think if you expect Zelenskyy, whose country is in tatters and who is dealing with immensely huge bombardments and savagery, to always be measured you are expecting him to be a robot not a human.

it's easy for us who sit here to say he should have handled it differently but actually I think this particular leader is extraordinary. Criticisms have been made and some of them may be valid, but on this one he deserves a free pass. We are sitting in comfort.

Thank goodness for this thread and all the reasonable thoughtful cool heads! From a constant, quiet lurker x

Pmk for the sensible analysis.

Aargh.
I was out having coffee earlier when a woman at the next table started informing her friends about the Poland incident. She explained that at first it was thought to be a Russian missile but it turned out it was Ukraine firing missiles at them on purpose to ‘bully’ Poland into joining the war so the rest of NATO would be forced to join in.
Yes she really did use the word ‘bully’.
I held back from saying anything because I didn’t want to start a row in Costa but tbh I wish I had given it to her with both barrels. I am raging.

Maria Drutska 🇺🇦
@maria_drutska
·
14m
Sweden will provide Ukraine with a new package of 286 million dollars military aid, it will include, in particular, air defence systems.
This is a bigger package than all 8 previous ones combined, Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson said.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · Today 11:55

I accept that Kubela and Zelensky could have commented in the heat of the moment without access to the full facts. But given the seriousness of both the war in Ukraine and very real possibility of escalation doesn't that just make their comments dangerously reckless risking escalation and dragging NATO directly into the conflict?

I think if you expect Zelenskyy, whose country is in tatters and who is dealing with immensely huge bombardments and savagery, to always be measured you are expecting him to be a robot not a human.

it's easy for us who sit here to say he should have handled it differently but actually I think this particular leader is extraordinary. Criticisms have been made and some of them may be valid, but on this one he deserves a free pass. We are sitting in comfort.

I agree with what you say here, ReleaseTheDucks. In addition to trying to fend off an invasion from one of the largest armies in the world while trying not to escalate by striking back at their country, and insufficient arms, air power etc, they’d just had another night of trying to intercept missiles, 90 of them this time, raining all over the country, then being left to deal with more black outs and cold after more successful strikes on their infrastructure.

Completely get that he must be under immense amount of stress. And can't imagine what his country is going through. However their battlefield success have been because they plan carefully, don't rush into things and monitor the situation before taking action.

However this does feel like a knee jerk reaction with the hope of getting other nations drawn in to help (can't blame Ukraine for wanting NATO support) his statement was made less than an hour after this got into the press though which would suggest it was very knee jerk and very little thought went into his words. I'm sure many are happy to offer him a free pass on this one with just a quiet word to establish facts before essentially asking multiple nuclear powers to engage in conflict with eachother.

max seddon
@maxseddon
·
2h
Pavel Gubarev – who longtime followers of Russia's war in Ukraine may remember as the former "people's mayor" of Donetsk – says his wife Ekaterina, who's now deputy head of Russia's occupation government in Kherson region, has disappeared without a trace

max seddon
@maxseddon
Turns out Ekaterina Gubareva has been arrested for "economic crimes."

You could think of it as a crash course in becoming a Russian regional official: only been part of "Russia" for less than two months and already getting arrested for corruption