Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

I read this earlier, this is lovely ☺️

I'd buy!

hehe there is a market for those loo rolls. What do the words say?

I remain a master strategist ...

A direct translation doesn't exist, "dickhead Putin" is the closest I can come up with.

Thanks for translating. That will do

War monitor at warmonitor3
Russian mobilised soldiers continue to surrender around Svatove.
They report that their commanders abandoned them the minute the fighting started.

Some groups were even shelling each other for days on end ...

Friendly fire becomes a big issue for mobilised Russian units as they have little to no communication and no commanding officers.

So essentially they have no idea who they are shooting at and who is friendly or not

Reoccurring theme developing in twitter noise. Interesting to see how this develops and if there is any tangible evidence that emerges.

Put me down for a crate. Perfect stocking fillers.

Just a heads up for those who listen to Ukrainecast. Yesterdays episode focuses on the siege of Mariupol and is frankly horrifically harrowing. Lots of personal stories of unimaginable trauma.

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a rare statement on November 7 in response to extensive Russian milblogger outcry about reported extensive losses and poor command within the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet.

The Russian pro-war siloviki faction (including Yevgeny Prigozhin and Ramzan Kadyrov) is increasing its influence in part to advance personal interests in Russia and occupied Ukraine, not strictly to win the war.

Russian forces have greatly depleted their arsenal of high-precision weapons systems and have suffered significant aviation losses and will likely struggle to maintain the current pace of the Russian military’s coordinated campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

Russian occupation authorities likely began a new phase of evacuations from Kherson Oblast.

Russian troops continued efforts to fix Ukrainian troops against the international border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations in the Svatove direction.

Russian sources claimed that Russian troops conducted limited counterattacks to regain lost positions west of Kreminna.

Russian sources widely claimed that proxy and Wagner Group troops entered the outskirts of Bilohorivka.

Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops are massing in the Kherson Oblast direction.

Russian troops continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces conducted limited interdiction efforts against Russian concentration areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to make public statements and signed additional decrees to portray himself as taking steps to fix fundamental problems with partial mobilization in Russia.

Russian and occupation officials continue to abduct Ukrainian children, intimidate civilians, and escalate filtration measures.

(ISW make the point that Prigozhin's profile is high enough that the public are starting to talk about him as a serious political figure despite his oh-so-convincing claims that he isn't interested)

+++

⚡️ Media: Ukraine to take over Motor Sich, Ukrnafta, other strategical enterprises owned by oligarchs.

⚡️ Official: Russian occupying forces strengthen defenses around Mariupol.
Russian forces have begun building a line of defense around the occupied city of Mariupol, according to Petro Andriushchenko, an advisor to the Mariupol mayor.
Russians are producing anti-tank cement pyramids at abandoned manufacturing sites in the city; they install them on a highway between Mariupol and neighboring Nikolske in the occupied part of Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️ Russian media: Russia plans to fully restore traffic through Crimean Bridge by late December.
The media claims one of the two lanes destroyed by the explosion on Oct. 8 would be ready on Dec. 5 and the other lane – on Dec. 20. [which would have implications for ease of transport of military hardware]

⚡️ Reznikov: NASAMS and Aspide air defense systems arrive in Ukraine ."These weapons will significantly strengthen the Ukrainian army and will make our skies safer," Reznikov said on Nov. 7.

⚡️ BBC: Satellite images show over 1,500 new graves near occupied Mariupol.

⚡️ The Economist: 'Arrangements already made' for Iran to supply Russia with missiles.
Tehran and Moscow have reached an agreement for Iranian Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles to be delivered by air to annexed Crimea and by sea to Russian ports in the Caspian, The Economist wrote, citing Ukrainian military intelligence and other officials.

⚡️ Governor: Residents of border settlements in Chernihiv Oblast urged to evacuate.
Chernihiv Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Chaus said on Nov. 7 that Russian forces attacked the region 234 times over the past week and 87 times the week befo

⚡️ Podolyak: Ukraine ready to negotiate with next Russian president. [there have been a couple of hints of a softening attitude towards negotiations in the last day]

⚡️ Poll: Nearly 90% of citizens believe Ukraine will be ‘prosperous EU country’ in 10 years.

⚡️ Turkish media: Turkey to propose extending grain deal for another year.

⚡️ Antonov company says it’s building second Mriya aircraft at ‘secret facility.’
Ukrainian aeronautics company Antonov said it is producing a second An-225 Mriya, the world’s largest cargo aircraft.
The first aircraft was destroyed by Russian forces in the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The second An-225, which was never completed, will be supplemented with parts from the bombed machine and new parts. the company has collected 30% of the components that could be used for the second model.

⚡️US defense secretary discusses air defense for Ukraine with new Italian defense minister

⚡️Bloomberg: US asks banks to keep doing business with some Russian firms.
The U.S. Treasury and State Departments have quietly urged large banks, including JPMorgan and Citigroup, to keep doing business with some strategic Russian firms, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
According to Bloomberg, the effort signals the Biden administration is looking to strike a balance between hindering Russia's invasion of Ukraine and avoiding adverse impacts of sanctions designed to punish Russia for the war. [fucking hell!]

⚡️Ukraine hits 17 concentrations of Russian troops, 5 command posts in east
Over the last 24 hours, Ukraine's military repelled Russian attacks, struck 17 areas with Russian troops and military equipment, five command posts, and a Russian ammunition depot in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said.
The Russian troops were based in Krasnohorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanhrad, Opytne, Klishchiivka, Maryinka, Pavlivka, Vodyane, and Mayorsk in the Donetsk Oblast and Belohorivka in Luhansk Oblast, the General Staff said.

⚡️BBC: US national security advisor confirms contact with Kremlin.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan confirmed communication channels between Washington and Moscow have remained open amid Russia's war against Ukraine, saying it is in the interest of the U.S. to maintain contacts with Russia, the BBC reported.
Sullivan also said, however, that the U.S. is "clear-eyed about who we are dealing with."

⚡️ UK intelligence: Russia builds 'dragon's teeth' anti-tank structures in occupied Mariupol.
Russia has started constructing defensive pyramidal anti-tank structures known as dragon's teeth around the occupied southern city of Mariupol, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry.
Moscow "is making a significant effort to prepare defenses in depth behind their current front line" to try to forestall any rapid Ukrainian advances, the ministry wrote.
[which implies they think Ukraine might try to get that far]

Higher personnel and hardware losses again, 1 plane down.

Oleksii Reznikov
@oleksiireznikov
·
32m
Ukraine government official
in Ukraine, a partial mobilization has been announced, within which it is planned to call up about 300,000 mosquitoes. the project has the working title Mosquitoes against Moscowitoes

The ducklings ❤️

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Russian forces have greatly depleted their arsenal of high-precision weapons systems and have suffered significant aviation losses and will likely struggle to maintain the current pace of the Russian military’s coordinated campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

I guess that's from ISW - I'd have to caution that is slightly at odds with the RUSI analysis that was published yesterday...RUSI may just as be right or wrong as ISW and other outlets but they do a lot of some quite deep research and TBH I found some of their analysis in that paper that I finally got to the end of last night made for uncomfortable reading.

They agree with the idea that the Russians have greatly depleted their long range precision weapons stocks....(hence in part the import of Iranian drones)

As for "aviation losses" - The RUSI analysts are of the opinion that the main thing that is supressing Russian manned air activity against targets deep within Ukraine isn't now rate of aircraft loss, it's the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Long Range SAMs which is preventing deep attacks being considered at all...and the problem here is that the Ukraine stocks of long/medium range SAMS are being depleted...

The Russians still have a lot of medium and heavy bombers left in the locker and the RUSI analysts seemed genuinely concerned that if that SAM depletion continues into the coming months the Russian Air Force will feel they can start operating with more aircraft types with more freedom deeper into Ukraine, hence the calls again yesterday for "more air defence is needed".

Im going to have to move the kitchen plants up high. The little gits keep eating them :(

@notimagain The ISW is cautious but can occasionally be a bit on the optomistic side, and its tone slips from apparent neutrality now and then.

Will the Ukrainians be able to get more SAMs, assuming Western support continues? Ie, the western stocks are not depleted?

What I do note is that Russia is fortifying the ruins of Mariupol which could be caution, or could be a belief that actually Ukraine might get that far. Or sheer weird decision making, like the offense of Bahkmut ...

There also seem to be incremental Russian gains here and there, which is rarely openly reported but if you read between the lines the implication is there. Admittedly it's far from the romp they boast about.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar Cute, so big now. The smallest one seems to have caught up. I thought from your new username they are in the wild (erm, your pond) but looks like they are still coming into the house.

I know this is a bit of a derail sorry but .... No, the name just tickled me :) We can't release them, they are too tame and have no fear of humans. Or cars.

We got them as my autistic son has been wanting them for years. The agreement was that he'd look after them and we've had some battles royal over this. But they are very good for him as he loves them and is actually doing the work now (he can be very lazy) and, it seems, developing a sense of responsibility.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar are they still joining in your dinner parties? 😂

Yes. But not as the centrepiece.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Will the Ukrainians be able to get more SAMs, assuming Western support continues? Ie, the western stocks are not depleted?

Well hopefully yes they'll get more western SAMs and just as importantly the launchers and associated hardware.

One major issue is the Ukranians have is that they have (?had) a large inventory of S-300's, which have been supposedly very effective but it's a system that's native to Russia/Ukraine.

As a result and AFAIK nobody in the west can produce replacements for those rounds. Fortunately there are S-300 users amongst the western aligned nations who have supplied rounds/systems from their systems to Ukraine but once those sources dry up the systems will become ineffective...

I was going to ask about that! The plant in a pot looked a bit At Risk to me.

There's the same issue with artillery rounds. Ukraine's Russian-made guns are 152mm, NATO standard is 155mm. Many former Soviet block countries have supplied 152mm rounds, and I think Pakistan is manufacturing some, but the supply is very limited. The solution has been to provide guns that use NATO rounds. I think we'll have to do the same for the air defense systems.

I've watched analysis by CIT (they are VERY thourough) a few weeks back, and they said that in terms of aircraft, Russia hasn't even started to dip into their deeper storages yet. Tanks yes, but not planes. I think pilot shortage is a more acute issue for Russia rather than planes...

Day 257, November 7, 2022. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin broadcast
Posted on 08 November

Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast. This update was provided by Stepan: https://twitter.com/childsacrifice1

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🔥 Frontline situation:
Russia shelled Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts. The armed forces of Ukraine continue the slow planned advance because of a lack of resources for large-scale offensive operations. Ukraine is employing tactics of active defense. At least 100 Russian mobilized soldiers die on the front every day. At least the equivalent of a Russian BTG is destroyed daily. 30-70% (depending on the unit) of Russian troops that invaded Ukraine on February 24th are now dead or irreversibly wounded.

🔥 155th Marines:
The 155th Marine brigade’s losses over the last 4 days are measured in the hundreds. This brigade was effectively employed in Mariupol and killed many Ukrainian defenders there. The brigade lost 63 KIA people in Chechnya, and they claim it lost more now in Vuhledar therefore >64 KIA. The Russians broke through the 1st line of Ukrainian defenses, but their reinforcement/evac route could be fired on by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian reserves of personnel and artillery have since arrived and this has made the situation even worse.

🔥 Russian mobilized soldiers:
Ukrainian soldiers report that roughly 40% of Russian troops are now made up of mobilized. Around 170,000 Russian troops are currently in Ukraine/ in the theater. Of these, there are around 40,000 PMC soldiers. Some mobilized formations fight very bravely but are much easier to eliminate than normal Russian soldiers. The bet on mobilized personnel to win the war has not paid off, just prolonged the war by 2-3 months.

🔥 Bakhmut direction:
No enemy advance in Bakhmut, on the contrary Russians have been thrown back. Main effort is now around Soledar. Unsuccessful Russian attacks on Kremina, Bilohorivka, and Avdiivka. No Russian advance anywhere on the front.

🔥 Kherson direction:
Ukrainians are cautiously advancing. Ukraine employs artillery in this direction to destroy enemy troops and supplies. Ukraine aviation also works, 7-20 sorties a day. Russians are preparing to hold a tight defensive line. The enemy’s intentions in Kherson are unclear, there is unverified information that the Russians are planning to flee on the 10th of November. Arestovich says this is unlikely, and that the Russians could hold for 3-4 months if conditions are right. The situation is complicated and bloody for Ukraine, with every meter advanced being paid for by blood. This is due to elite Russian formations such as the VDV conducting an effective defense. The “evacuation” is most likely a rotation and preparations for a sturdy defense.

🔥 WSJ article:
Arestovich says that the Wall street journal article about America demanding Ukraine to negotiate with Russia is a provocation/plant by Moscow who gave the “information” to a journalist through an “anonymous source in the Kremlin”. The media grabs onto this even if they know this because it guarantees views and hype. The claims that the west is putting pressure on Ukraine to negotiate are nonsense. Ukrainian conditions for negotiation remain the same: no negotiation with Putin, Russian troops have to leave all occupied Ukrainian territory, and reparations and war criminals are to be extradited.

🔥 International diplomacy:
Indonesian president presumes that Putin will not come to the G20 summit in Bali. Arestovich believes that Russia will not be kicked out of the G20 because there are countries in it that are moved by Russia’s anti-western/ imperialistic rhetoric. In 2013 Yanukovich signed an agreement with Beijing where it guaranteed that nuclear weapons will not be used against Ukraine and that it would defend Ukraine against any country that used nuclear weapons on it. The Russians have since dropped the nuke threat after they were told to do so by India, China and the US so this is unlikely to be relevant. The Russians have chosen the path of negotiation as opposed to nuclear escalation. Arestovich does not hope for any sort of deal between China and the US when it comes to Russia.

🔥 Weapon shipments to Ukraine:
Current weapon shipments are insufficient for a quick victory because Europe and the US have chosen a proactive long-term approach for combating Russia, not because they are pressuring Ukraine to negotiate. Instead, Europe is reviving its military-industrial complex, which will eventually help Ukraine. The amount and quality of weapons are increasing, just slower than we would like. The west cannot afford to and will not go for a compromise because it would destroy their integrity in front of their Eurasian allies with China and encourage aggressors around the world. Russian resources are exhausted, and Arestovich believes that February/March will be the tipping point. “Right now is the most boring period of the war.”

🔥 Russian missile terror:
Ukraine received NASAMS and Aspide AA. The Russians have 140 Iskanders and a few dozen Kalibrs according to the Ukrainian GRU, which is why they are not carrying out mass strikes because most missiles get shot down. The Russians are waiting for Iranian rockets, there will be a lot of them, up to 1000, but there are not enough launchers which will make mass strikes more difficult. However no AA system in the world has experience with combating Iranian rockets yet, so it may be quite difficult for Ukraine. The Russians have enough of their own missiles for just a few large strikes with 50-100 missiles. Shaheeds and small numbers of Kalibrs are being shot down. Arestovich says it is “hard but worth it” for Ukrainians to endure no electricity and other difficulties to “prevent the country from being turned into one massive Bucha.” The weather will also make launches from ships and planes more difficult.

🔥 Russian domestic politics:
Prigozhyn is being put forward as the leader of a “war political party” in Russia. This is because they will need an organized force during the political chaos which will come after the defeat in Ukraine. They are being artificially inflated. Wagner is being given an image as “the only people who managed to do something during the war” to create a group of loyal patriots. The Russian MOD has lost most of its influence in internal politics.

🔥 5 Ukrainian defense companies were nationalized including Motorsich.

Thanks for this, this bit is really interesting. I didn't know about the 2013 deal:

"In 2013 Yanukovich signed an agreement with Beijing where it guaranteed that nuclear weapons will not be used against Ukraine and that it would defend Ukraine against any country that used nuclear weapons on it. The Russians have since dropped the nuke threat after they were told to do so by India, China and the US so this is unlikely to be relevant."

An article by Anne Applebaum:

Fear of Nuclear War Has Warped the West’s Ukraine Strategy

'Our self-imposed limitations may well have encouraged Putin to believe that American support for Ukraine is limited and will soon end. Our insistence that Ukraine not harm Russia or Russians in its own defense might explain why he keeps fighting. Perhaps our nuclear anxiety actually encourages him to carry out nonnuclear mass atrocities; he does so because he believes he will not face any consequences, because we will not escalate.'

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/russia-ukraine-nuclear-war-fear-us-policy/672020/