ISW Key Takeaways
Russian forces launched another massive wave of strikes against critical Ukrainian infrastructure, further damaging the power grid and leaving much of Kyiv without water.
Russian officials again changed their minds about the risk of Ukrainian forces destroying the Kakhovka dam, ordering evacuations of areas that could be flooded. There is no scenario in which Ukraine would benefit from destroying the dam, and this rhetoric is likely meant to speed evacuations and provide informational cover for Russian withdrawals from the west bank.
Russian forces are continuing to withdraw from the west bank of the Dnipro River even as they set conditions to fight for positions around Kherson City.
Wagner Private Military Company financier Evgeniy Prigozhin sought to bring charges against the St. Petersburg mayor for corruption and announced the imminent opening of the PMC Wagner Center in St. Petersburg. Prigozhin also attacked “oligarchs” and “elites” for living in comfort and preventing the full mobilization of Russia.
Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian troops conducted counter-offensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on October 30 and 31.
Russian forces continued defensive operations and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces continued counter-offensive operations in Kherson Oblast on October 30 and 31.
The Ukrainian interdiction campaign is reportedly damaging Russian forces exfiltrating across the Dnipro River.
Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut on October 30 and 31.
Russian sources claimed that Russian troops made incremental gains in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on October 30 and 31, but ISW cannot verify these claims.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely attempting to prevent draft dodging by trying to deceive the Russian population into believing that autumn conscripts will not be sent to fight in Ukraine.
The MoD also announced the end of partial mobilization on October 31, executing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order to end mobilization by the end of October
Local Russian governments remain responsible for even basic provisions to mobilized personnel, demonstrating the inefficiency of crowdfunding efforts and uncoordinated supply lines to support a modern military.
Russian occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast announced that they would allow the use of Ukrainian hryvnias alongside Russian rubles, demonstrating the failure of their monthslong rubleization efforts in Kherson.
Russian officials continue to create poor conditions in occupied parts of Kherson Oblast, likely to drive local inhabitants to evacuate.
[also a lot on Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, who is becoming a strong political force. Unless reined in soon I think he's possibly a successor to Putin, who is starting imo to look increasingly weak; he has been allowing extensive criticism of the MoD and his own people, and if he can't stop that, well, the lions are starting to run the circus instead of the ringmaster]
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Zelenskyy: Today our Air Forces and everyone involved in protecting the skies did a great job. Most of the objects that the terrorists identified as targets were saved. This morning alone, the terrorists used 55 cruise missiles for a massive strike, 45 of which were shot down.
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⚡️ Russian proxies in Crimea announce 'nationalization' of property owned by anyone 'associated with Kyiv.'
⚡️ DTEK says its running out of equipment for power grid repair.
DTEK Executive Director Dmytro Sakharuk said the Ukrainian energy giant has depleted its stock of stored equipment following the two series of attacks after Oct. 10.
⚡️ Digital Transformation Ministry: Mobile service in Kyiv may be disrupted due to power grid damage
Ukraine’s military: Russia fires at civilian tugboats in Mykolaiv Oblast, killing 2 people.
Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on Oct. 31 that Russian forces hit two civilian tug boats transporting grain near Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast.
Ukraine’s top oligarch Akhmetov loses half his assets to Russia’s invasion (kyivindependent.com/business/ukraines-top-oligarch-akhmetov-loses-half-his-assets-to-russias-invasion)
⚡️ Governor: Ukraine liberates 9 settlements in Luhansk Oblast.
⚡️ Russian Defense Ministry: Russia can not guarantee grain corridor safety.
⚡️ Putin: Oct. 31 mass attacks on Ukraine are revenge for Crimea drone attack.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Oct. 31 mass strikes on Ukraine were a partial response to an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet’s ships in occupied Sevastopol.
⚡️ Interior Minister: Russia fires around 60,000 rounds of ammunition daily.
Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi said on Oct. 31 that Ukraine’s Armed Forces use around 6,500–7,000 rounds, approximately 10 times less than Russia. [This is a huge disparity. Might any military person be able to give their thoughts, beyond the obvious that Ru is profligate and Ukr has to be more careful? @notimagain @MissConductUS ]
⚡️ IAEA inspectors inspect 2 Ukrainian nuclear facilities amid Russia’s ‘dirty bomb’ claims.
⚡️ Ukraine downs 2 Russian attack helicopters in Kherson Oblast.
650 more people gone. And no less than 4 helicopters and 1 plane! I do wonder if the numbers are inaccurate but then at the beginning of the war Ukraine claimed far less losses, so perhaps they are.
There have been reports of heavy losses on both sides around Bakhmut.