Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

Something about a stand off between Norwegian navy and Russian navy over the location of the pipeline isn't it?

If caught in the act, that's an attack on both Norway and UK in theory.

For context that's the sort of action "experts" have been warning of/gaming the consequences of for decades/years.

There might genuinely be something new going on but I suspect havng dared to look at one Media outlet this AM that there's a bit of hype in the reporting.

Unverified, can't find anything else about it on Twitter:

Explosions in Sevastopol harbor last night.

According to some sources, several Russian warships of the Black Sea Fleet were blown up - including a fregate and a landing ship.

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1586269146693926912?s=61&t=XKjYvLayd10jtxAqD91d9Q

@DesdamonasHandkerchief

As you rightly point out, unverified and all still a bit confused..

Another Tweet here:

"There is still a massive fog of war surrounding the #Ukraine️ attack on #Russian forces at Sevastopol. All UNCONFIRMED"

twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1586300573804003328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1586300573804003328%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

I'm seeing a lot more about something going down in Sevastopol now notimagain - some saying drone strike, others misiles and some confusion over whether it's warehouses or ships that were struck..

The Russians have announced the attack but say nothing was damaged.

www.cnn.com/2022/10/29/world/russia-drone-attack-crimea-intl-hnk/index.html

They called it a drone attack, but did not specify whether it was by air or sea.

It seems like there is some confirmation of something having happened:

Liveuamap AT Liveuamap
Head of occupational authorities in Sevastopol says all public CCTV in the city will be turned off

Rob Lee AT RALee85
The Governor of Russian-occupied Sevastopol claimed that Russian forces repelled a UAV attack starting this morning, which included an unmanned naval system.

The Governor is Mikhail Razvozhaev who seems to have done an interview and put something on telegram now this morning:

"Ships of the Black Sea Fleet this morning repelled an attack by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in the Sevastopol Bay," said Mikhail Razvozhaev on his Telegram channel. He noted that there were no damaged objects in the city and emphasized that the situation is under control.

It was reported earlier that authorities were saying that the smoke was part of a planned training exercise.

Worth remembering how the CCTV footage of the Kerch Bridge got leaked all over the internet.

Its now being reported that the Russian Defense Ministry is reporting that there were used nine UAVs and seven unmanned autonomous marine vehicles in attack on Sevastopol. Further to that they are also claiming that specialists of the British Navy who were involved in the detonation of the Nord Stream gas pipelines were involved in this attack.

But further than that, I don't know we can conclusively say what happened at this stage. Nor will I think Ukraine will comment further in any meaningful way as its not in their interests to admit or explain what happened or to admit liability even if they are involved.

Rob Lee AT RALee85
A local telegram channel says that a Russian helicopter engaged the naval drone and a ship apparently fired at the UAVs. 2/

This is the third time during the war that there has been talk of naval drones.

Fascinating to see.

Especially since the independent consensus over the Kerch Bridge is now truck bomb despite my earlier opinion.

Also. Its Saturday.

Why do these type of events all seem to fall on Saturdays?!

We haven't had a 'Saturday Moral Boost' for a couple of weeks.

Mattia Nelles AT mattia_n
The Ministry of Defense writes that "nine unmanned aerial vehicles and seven autonomous sea drones" were allegedly involved in the attack on the Sevastopol harbor. They claim that the minesweeper "Ivan Golubets" was damaged (minor damages).

back from holiday .... good news from Sevastopol.

Ill continue with the highlights from tomorrow as I do think they are useful but if people find them redundant then please say! The Gerasimov highlights from @MagicFox are excellent and the Kyiv Independent points can give wider context to them, so far imo.

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces are not making significant progress around Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast or anywhere else along the front lines.

President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the end of partial mobilization.

Putin may be attempting to rehabilitate Shoigu’s image in the information space to counter the growing influence of the pro-war siloviki faction.

The growing influence of the siloviki faction is continuing to fracture the Russian pro-war community.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.

Russian forces continued to deploy mobilized personnel to and establish defensive positions on the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in northwestern Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian occupation authorities completed their "evacuation” of parts of occupied Kherson Oblast.

Russian occupation authorities reportedly plan to force Russian citizenship on Ukrainian civilians in occupied parts of Ukraine by October 30, likely in part to legalize the forced mobilization of Ukrainian civilians as part of the November 1 autumn conscription cycle.

Russian occupation authorities are continuing their attempts to erase Ukrainian history, culture, and national identity in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.

Two Twitter snippets:

Maybe the tide in Russia is turning:

Latest Levada opinion poll on public mood in Russia:

October
36% want to “continue military operations” in Ukraine
57% want to “begin peace talks”

September
44% for continuing the offensive
48% for starting peace talks

https://twitter.com/bbcstever/status/1586333785259671553?s=61&t=gWoZfEAhJoud98yPrjm71Q

Another General relieved of his post:

According to Russian news (RIA) Russian General Lapin has been relieved from duty. General Lapin was in charge of the Russian troops defending Lyman. The Ukrainian city was liberated by Ukrainian troops in October 1.

https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1586351028261519360?s=61&t=gWoZfEAhJoud98yPrjm71Q

Welcome back hope you had a good holiday, I've really missed your highlights isjbear, they're the opposite of redundant!

I have to admit @Ijsbear, I have been feeling a little bit lost without your roundups.

I appreciate your round ups too @Ijsbear Thank you!

Okay :)

It was a wonderful holiday and our Ukrainian guests did the ducks proud - they are huge now. 4 weeks old.

While waiting to make further sense of the Sevastopol fleet hit I note that 'special services will deal with residents of Sevastopol who shoot videos of air defence work'

news.ru/regions/ugovory-zakoncheny-razvozhaev-razberetsya-so-snimayushimi-video-raboty-pvo/

And different accounts are all posting the same text on Ru social media 'I guess it's now time to take out the rest of the power stations. 100% blackout. I'm waiting for that to happen. Ukraine's delusions are possible because of Russia's consideration of civilians with measured actions and reactions.'

And borntobequiet I have always wondered what it would be like to have of one or mostly one heritage, but we are who and what we are.

Ukraine returns 52 prisoners of war from Russian captivity (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/ukraine-returns-52-prisoners-of-war-from-russian-captivity)
Two civilians were among the freed prisoners that include medics, officersand other military personnel.

⚡️EU freezes 300 billion euros from Russian Central Bank.
EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders said that "from his point of view," it would be possible to keep these 300 billion euros as a guarantee until Russia voluntarily participates in the reconstruction of Ukraine.

⚡️Critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia hit again by Russian strikes.

⚡️Lithuania to repair at least 12 Ukrainian PzH2000 howitzers. (The question of how hardware is repaired and by whom is an interesting one, and not something one of the observers have done a thread on).

The Kyiv Independent's investigation into misconduct in the International Legion made the list of finalists of the MezhyhiryaFest Investigative Journalism Award, one of Ukraine's main journalism prizes. kyivindependent.com/investigations/suicide-missions-abuse-physical-threats-international-legion-fighters-speak-out-against-leaderships-misconduct [anyone who doubts Ukraine's commitment to eradicating corruption just needs to look at this]

⚡️ Southern Command: Russian forces give residents near Kherson two days before forced deportation.

Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reported on Oct. 28 that Russian troops gave locals near Kherson two days before they will be forced to leave their homes and be taken to Russian-occupied Crimea.

⚡️ Ukraine’s military destroys 3 ammunition depots in southern Ukraine.

⚡️ Ukraine freezes electricity prices for Ukrainians during heating season.
The Cabinet Ministry said on Oct. 28 that Ukraine will not raise the price of electricity until the end of the heating season, March 31, 2023, in spite of the war and Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

⚡️ Belarus has provided Russia with 65,000 metric tons of ammunition since March.

⚡️ Shoigu claims mobilization complete in Russia, over 80,000 soldiers already sent to Ukraine.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed Russia has mobilized 300,000 people with an average age of 35, according to Russian state-controlled media RIA Novosti.
Shoigu alleged that 41,000 of the troops sent to Ukraine are already engaged at the front line.

⚡️ Energoatom: Around 100 Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant employees signed contracts with Russia.
Ukraine’s state nuclear operator Energoatom said on Oct. 28 that the rest of the plant’s roughly 6,700 employees have refused to collaborate with Russia, despite coercion.
Energoatom said Moscow’s claims that 1,000 of its employees have agreed to work with Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom are false.

⚡️ Kyiv Mayor: Regular electricity supply to Kyiv likely restored in 2-3 weeks.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that Kyiv is facing an electricity shortage of around 20% to 50%.

⚡️ US supplies 2.3 million Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines to Ukraine

Dear god, the Ru personnel losses are up to 70k now ....

Had a random conversation about naval drones and bridges and Crimean parts and Russian accusations in the car this afternoon. DH and I dont often get time for such conversations. I said to him that it was weird to have 3 refs to naval drones now and even though the truck bomb theory was widely accepted I still had issue with it because a) amount of explosive needed b) timing the explosion to the exact point to take advantage of bridge weakness and have maximum impact c) the Russian accusation of British involvement.

He kinda went quite and said 'do you know about Hasler and the history of the SBS and marines?' Now my military history knowledge is above the average Joe but still leaves a lot to be desired and anyone in military circles would put me to shame in minutes. This particular part is really not my bag.

Anyway he went on to say that the Kerch was consistent with the SBS MO and you would have a very simple system to have massive effect. Basically a radio signal under the bridge so when something passed the critical point it would go boom. Its high risk but max effect but doable. And if the British weren't directly involved he'd put money on them having helped trained the Ukrainians tactically to do. He also said it wasn't something that us seals were likely to do. His argument was why do the Russians keep pointing the finger at the British for certain things and not the US?

He went on to say, he thought the Ukrainians could be capable of it alone but most likely with advice. This would mean the Russians have good knowledge of British tactics too. Which tbf given this dates back to WWII era stuff would be reasonable.

It then gives good context to blame British for nord steam which is bollocks.

We then talked about a few other operations lately which I've noticed involving rivers, to which his eye brows went sky high. He made the point that the SBS are something of a cinderella to the better known antics of the SAS...

It was interesting.

I'm not sure what I think likely, but my gut feeling about Kerch isn't going away - I still think the truck theory alone wasn't right, but had concerns about an alternative being over complex. DH doesn't think it would be. It's interesting to see his background knowledge fitting with my suspicions and potentially what has happened.

There was a report that the British had been developing a naval drone prior to Kerch but still only skant info.

It would fit. Obviously I have massive bias going on here. But there is something here niggling away that doesn't make sense unless there is something to do with naval drones. It just keeps popping up and predated Kerch.

something bad:

Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2
·
17m
BREAKING: The Russian Defence Ministry announces that it is suspending participation in the implementation of agricultural export agreements from Ukraine

Russia is running out of options.

Also. Its navy just got fucked over. It has to wound Ukrainian sea operations. Just cos.

Russia doesn't like being pwned.

Rumours, unconfirmed, that a ship actually sunk. Would be good if true.

Especially if in the port. Sunk ship in the port means the port itself is partly fucked.

He also said it wasn't something that us seals were likely to do. His argument was why do the Russians keep pointing the finger at the British for certain things and not the US?

I respectfully disagree. The SEALs had their origin as the UDTs - Underwater Demolition Teams. Every SEAL qualifies in explosives handling and UD, and they've blown a lot of stuff up over the years. It's one of their favorite things to do. They just get more press for their air and land assaults, like the one that took out bin Laden.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underwater_Demolition_Team

Why are they blaming the UK instead of the US? I've no idea, really, but they are also blaming the SBS for blowing up the Nordstream pipelines.

Especially if in the port. Sunk ship in the port means the port itself is partly fucked.

The ships were likely tied up at the piers, which limits the directions from which they can be attacked by sea. A ship sunk at a pier would be a huge headache but would not impact port operations.