Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1583158282717233153 this what President Zelensky thinks they have planned

I just came to say the same minsmum map on this tweet:

⚡️The Russians mined the dam and units of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, Volodymyr Zelenskyi reported.

https://twitter.com/flashnewss_ua/status/1583156701502459904?s=61&t=6tBJAPye6FTJi8qD6qawTg

"If Russian terrorists blow up this dam, more than 80 settlements, including Kherson, will be in the zone of rapid flooding...

Are compromising the power plant and blowing the dam the 'difficult decisions' referenced. It's making me feel a bit sick. They are such vindictive bastards.

The water level 100 metres or so upstream of the dam needs to be at its current level for Crimea to be irrigated.

Have been busy. If I get time later I’ll explain some Crimean issues.

I haven’t given much thought to how Putin should die but now I come to think of it, at the hands of angry babusyas would do.

JUST IN: White House NSC coordinator John Kirby says Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea assisting Russian pilots who bombarded Kyiv with Iranian drones on Monday.

"Iran is now directly engaged on the ground," Kirby says.
"Relatively small number" of Iranians sent to Crimea to assist Russians "to use [the drones] with better lethality" after early failures, Kirby says.

US also concerned about potential advanced missile transfers from Iran to Russia "almost certainly" for use in Ukraine.
"We don't believe it's going to change the course of the war," Kirby says Russia's use of Iran's drones.
The Pentagon is looking "actively, right now" at potential additional air defense systems to help Ukraine deal with the threat of Iran's drones, Kirby tells reporters.

@jm_szuba

‘…In one event, [Wallace] said, a Russian fighter went within 15ft of a Nato aircraft. “That is reckless, unnecessary and put at risk many people’s lives; we are incredibly lucky it did not become worse.”…’

‘Wallace also said he had travelled to Washington for urgent consultations this week to make sure all western nations understood “our planning processes in the event of a whole range of things”…’

Shashank Joshi quoting https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/20/russian-fighter-jet-released-missile-near-raf-plane-over-black-sea

Well think we can assume it’s all very serious. I do worry that the tone around a possible nuclear strike is changing somewhat.

I think the biggest concern over the drones other than them hitting infrustructure and civilians is how it ties up ukrainian resources. There is also the cost of trying to take them out. The drones themselves are cheap. The defence systems not so.

On a light note Ukrainian solider musician:

twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1583010683364704258

I wish we could have a way to get rid of the shit show of the current government but keep Ben Wallace. I guess this is why we have ended up with wartime coalitions in the past - unity across the spectrum and also means you get the skills you need regardless of party.

There is a lot of debate about whether blowing up the dam would actually flood Kherson isn't there? Isn't the city on a hill? To put it crudely.

That gives me hope Hills. Best case scenario they cut off the water to Crimea, and therefore have to leave, but fail to flood other towns and cities.

That would be a good outcome. Presumably UAF would have a good idea what will happen if the dam fails. I wonder whether it is possible to blow the crossing without blowing up the entire dam.

The concern is that Russia will start to level Kherson and the dam with the missiles once their forces have retreated.

A Guardian article detailing the lack of supplies for Russian mobilised men.
Bulletproof vests have gone up in price by up to 500%. The powers that be can't ignore the shortage of equipment for mobilised men anymore:

On Wednesday, Valentina Matviyenko, a senior politician and member of Putin’s security council, ordered the country’s anti-monopoly agencies to regulate market prices for military equipment.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/20/the-army-has-nothing-new-russian-conscripts-bemoan-lack-of-supplies?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

‘On Wednesday, Valentina Matviyenko, a senior politician and member of Putin’s security council, ordered the country’s anti-monopoly agencies to regulate market prices for military equipment.‘

Regulating market prices, that’ll magic up supplies where there were none before 🙄

Regulating market prices, that’ll magic up supplies where there were none before

I just paid $16 for a three-pound package of butter at the warehouse club. That's about 30% more than a few months ago, but the good news is that they had plenty of it.

On a light note Ukrainian solider musician:
twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1583010683364704258

Wow, Can i just nip in for minute to say what wonderfully talented guy, his name is Мойсей Бондаренко (Moses Bondarenko) also goes by the name Paranoizes. He has his own youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIs9fqj4Pi_BxD5zNIk10iQ and Insta etc.

Many thanks to everyone who contributes here, I'm grateful for all of your opinions and information.

Reports tonight that the Ukrainians have hit the Antonovsky bridge again. Not sure if that's the main bridge or the barge.

Important if they have.

Thanks for the link to Moses aka Paranoizes.. That was a moving violin performance.

I hate to think what happened to the occupants of the burnt out car

Good news, it looks like the administration will try to pass a very large funding package for aid to Ukraine before any seats in congress change next year.

With GOP skeptics of Ukraine aid poised to gain seats in Congress, lawmakers look to lock in a huge military assistance package - One bipartisan idea would use a funding bill during the lame-duck session to secure a much higher level of military and other assistance.

NBC is a very reputable source. Let's hope it goes through.

The entry point for the Dnipro water to the North Crimea Canal system is just upstream of the HEP dam (with the crossing). See the area boxed in with jetties and it then feeds down to a small HEP facility (to the right of the Shell filling station). Then it's off on quite a circuit through left bank Kherson Oblast and eventually across into Crimea at the Perekop Isthmus.

Shut off the N C Canal and the agriculture in Crimea takes a hit (as it did after the annexation). The Ukrainians blocked it closer to Perekop though as they wanted to irrigate the territory they held. Right at the start of the Putin invasion getting the Dnipro flow into the canal was a priority so there was a race to get up to Nova Khakovka, while the blockage closer to Crimea was blown up to restore the supply.

The canal network, sourced from the Dnipro is extensive in Crimea and to the north. Without it the steppe isn't going to be anything like as productive as it is.

In this map the N Crimea Canal is getting towards Kerch in the bottom right.

Source;

farminglandscapesociety.blogspot.com/2014/04/shutting-off-crimeas-water-supply.html

By ISW Russia Fellow Nataliya Bugayova

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-track-disappoint-multiple-competing-factions-russia

PUTIN ON TRACK TO DISAPPOINT MULTIPLE COMPETING FACTIONS IN RUSSIA

Crimea, like Gaul, is perhaps dividable into three parts. You have a very pleasant Mediterranean type coastal strip south of the mountains. Then the mountains, with low productivity but rainfall. Then generally steppe dominating most of the peninsula.

The 4th part is perhaps comprised of all the coastal ecosystems with marshes, spits and so on.

When the Ukrainians cut the canal water, the Russians partly compensated by feeding water from mountain rivers into the system, but it was inadequate in terms of returning production to former levels.

This soil map shows the potentially very productive Chernozems (black earths) of the northern zone marked 1. Those are steppe soils with a high organic content. South of them are the chestnut steppe soils (lower organic matter but productive with irrigation). Zone 3 corresponds to the north side of the mountains with often thin, rocky soils and 4 is the more Mediterranean type temperate strip of mountain ridge down to the coast.