Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

So I have gone back and asked my friend. She has a lot of immediate family in the occupied part of Kherson. They have heard this information from their local networks and the Ukraine army. Like you said @RedToothBrush this development is widely known there but I would suggest that this is not the same report from 01 October.

Fair enough. Entirely possible too.

Lawrence Freedman, Getting to Negotiations
Why it's so hard to find a route to a diplomatic resolution in Ukraine

https://samf.substack.com/p/getting-to-negotiations?publicationid=631422&utmm_medium=email&action=share&isFreemail=true

@MissConductUS

Re drones and..

The one-time use attack drones Iran has supplied are just being given target coordinates and launched. Those can be disabled if you can jam the GPS signal they're getting.

Speculation from me to some extent but TBH I'm not sure I'd assume that.

Many aerial navigation systems (certainly in the civil world, and even in Unmanned Vehicles) take Satnav as the prime source of positional reference but also have an inertial system running in parallel as a fallback in case GPS/GLONASS/etc becomes unavailable. There's then usually some clever software acting as a referee on the source to use for getting from A to B.

I've certainly been on aircraft several times where the GPS was being jammed/spoofed (recent'ish years, eastern Med) and it had almost zero effect on the operation since we had the auto fallback to inertial. That was using what by current standards would be old generation kit, twenty plus years old..

Given hobbyists can buy Inertial Measuring Units (IMUs), which are the heart of Inertial Systems, off Amazon these days for not a lot, I wouldn't certainly be surprised if the Iranian drones had the capability to carry on flying the assigned route with reduced accuracy even without satnav....

Anyhow what capability they really have is all speculation from me, suspect somebody somewhere has by now opened one up and knows the answer..

Putin apparently speaking now. He has announced martial law in the areas of Ukraine that have been annexed.

Good point about inertial backup systems, @notimagain. The HIMARS missiles added sat nav in 2004 but still have them to this day. I think that at this point we have quite of bit of Iranian drone wreckage to analyze, so we may have an answer on that question soon.

Aren't the intertial systems more prone to drift off target than the sat nav systems, which get continuous correction? I know that for the HIMARS M30 missile, adding sat nav was a big improvement in accuracy.

I have no idea how reliable this is, but here's a report that the Russians have replaced the inertial system with their own sat nav module:

eurasiantimes.com/hitting-bulls-eye-russia-has-upgraded-iranian-shahed-136-kamikaze/

The use of the word "replace" seems to indicate that there is no control system mediating between location data provided from two sources.

@MissConductUS

Aren't the inertial systems more prone to drift off target than the sat nav systems, which get continuous correction?

Yep...exactly.

For those that aren't familiar with all this at the start of a journey the system operator tells the "magic inertial navigation system" the starting position and then the machine churns away measuring and integrating all accelerations it's subjected to...that is then used to calculate a current velocity and position..

There's no need for any external input by way of radio signals, star sightings etc, all completely self contained, resistant to jamming etc... but the down side to the method is the longer time goes on from "start" the more errors creep in to position and velocity due to mathematical errors, errors in measurement etc.

Post the arrival of GPS what a lot of navigations systems do is ( in roundabout terms ) continually use the very accurate GPS position for navigation. In parallel they also use the GPS data to update/correct the inertial position to remove any drift.

If for any reason during the journey the GPS goes off line/is considered unreliable and switched out the inertial navigation position is then used for navigation.. but it's accuracy will start to degrade from the moment GPS fails.

Bit off the core topic but HTH in the context of the possible difficulties in easily defeating these drones.

Disappointing:

BREAKING: Israel rules out arms transfers to Ukraine

Don't know if this has any relevance today, but kamikazi drones are the descendants of the V-1, for which many counter-measures were tried.

The most successful were anti-aircraft batteries (but only after a lot of practice and new tech) and deception operations to cause the Nazis to believe they were overshooting central London and shorten the range.

I was particularly struck by this paragraph – showing once more the importance of winning the information war:

A certain number of the V-1s fired had been fitted with radio transmitters, which had clearly demonstrated a tendency for the V-1 to fall short. Oberst Max Wachtel, commander of Flak Regiment 155 (W), which was responsible for the V-1 offensive, compared the data gathered by the transmitters with the reports obtained through the double agents. He concluded, when faced with the discrepancy between the two sets of data, that there must be a fault with the radio transmitters, as he had been assured that the agents were completely reliable. It was later calculated that if Wachtel had disregarded the agents' reports and relied on the radio data, he would have made the correct adjustments to the V-1's guidance, and casualties might have increased by 50 percent or more.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-1_flying_bomb#Countermeasures_in_England

Putin has declared martial law in the illegally annexed territories. With typical Russian logic, he blames the decision on Ukraine for not recognizing the illegal annexations.

Putin introduces martial law in illegally annexed Ukrainian regions

This seems to have been the big announcement at today's meeting of the Russian security council.

Martial law in annexed area? More Russians to be used as target practise 😊 I hope that Surovikin is taken out.

The role of double agents has always been (to me anyway) an interesting aspect of the V1 story..

Hard to replicate these days with everybody running around with camera phones and access to the internet..

The past truly was another country.

Thank you for the full explanations on drones. It's always been hard to defend against a suicide attack, and I guess these are mechanical examples.
I hope someone can come up with something to stop them soon.

Although they are saying they will help build a "‘life-saving civilian early-warning system". Not sure if this is useful or special - maybe some of the military experts could comment:

www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-israel-may-supply-ukraine-with-rocket-and-drone-alert-system-but-not-weapons/

Some interesting analysis from reputable sources on Twitter of the legal documents signed by Putin today. They go much further than Putin suggested in his statement. Whilst formally martial law has 'only' been declared in the annexed regions and some additional restrictions in bordering areas the documents allow for additional measures (such as travel bans, censorship, bans on public gatherings, curfews etc.) as 'necessary' across any part of Russia.

Seems to me to be trying to quell any potential uprising.

Would martial law in the annexed districts mean that Ukrainians who were not able to leave will be put in the Russian army against the Ukrainians trying to free those areas? And shot at from behind if they try to turn back or away?

Conscripting Ukrainians from the occupied areas into the Russian army is already happening according to my Ukrainian guest. It was one of the points of the referendum: they force you at gunpoint to vote to be part of Russia then give you a Russian passport and your call up papers.

Suella Braverman departing as Home Sec….can the Government limp on much further?

Steven Swinford AT Steven_Swinford
Suella Braverman gone as Home Secretary - not clear what has happened. Told it’s security related

Grant Shapps expected to be the new Home Secretary

There were discussions about Sajid Javid returning to role - but they ended after he threatened to name Truss’s comms director

SECURITY RELATED???!! WTAF!

Did she not pass security clearance?!!!

OMFG if thats the case!

Pippa Crerar AT PippaCrerar
Multiple sources told me this avo that Braverman was being sacked - with some claiming at behest of Jeremy Hunt who they said was now “pulling the strings".

(No 10 sources still denying she was "sacked" - and Hunt's people denying responsibility)

Now peston reporting that Suella Braverman has been asked to resign over an issue relating to “security" - but Tory right feeling that she has been stitched up. None of this will make Truss's life any easier...

This government is just a complete basketcase.

This lame duck government is such a shit show.

😱 imagine that’s why Wallace went to Washington! Maybe she’s a Russian spy! 😂😂 wouldn’t put anything past the Tories.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · Today 16:30

^ScrollingLeaves · Today 16:20
Would martial law in the annexed districts mean that Ukrainians who were not able to leave will be put in the Russian army against the Ukrainians trying to free those areas? And shot at from behind if they try to turn back or away?^

Conscripting Ukrainians from the occupied areas into the Russian army is already happening according to my Ukrainian guest. It was one of the points of the referendum: they force you at gunpoint to vote to be part of Russia then give you a Russian passport and your call up papers

Is forcing people, on pain of death, to kill their own people a war crime? This is horrific.