Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

I was in the middle of writing a TL;DR on the whole drones problem when my router crashed and reloaded a blank page...aren't you lucky.

Short version - The drones are believed to be being launched from mobile launchers so hellish difficult destroy on the ground and are very difficult to stop once airborne ( reasons: range, size/low observability, also possibly their relatively low speed).

Stopping a swarm/ mass raid with top of the range SAMS can (short term) quickly leave launchers fired out and (longer term) end up with you burning through missile stocks in the bunkers.

Israel/Iron Dome keeps getting a mention as if it's a universal cure - despite the press it get's yet another SAM system with some great capabilities so would be very welcome in theatre but like any other such SAM system it has limitations..

Conclusion - the drones are a significant problem and if not stopped will continue to be so. They quite probably are the reason for some of the political discussions we have been hearing about. Reason being stopping supply of the drones from source is probably the quickest fix, if that can be done.

If supply can't be stopped it might be possible to degrade their navigation accuracy to some degree , but beyond that the solution might be guns, hundreds/thousands of them, to ring every potential target.....

Oh, still TL; DR....

Thanks this is really interesting.

I wonder what China makes of the drones/ missile handout from Iran to Russia? Anyone have an idea? Would be interested to know their stance.

I am feeling anxious about Kherson today.

@thereisnolight it’s more than that. There are huge amounts of money involved for him, as well as reputation. He is potentially in quite a bit of trouble re Twitter.

With the drones, I wonder if there is anyway of blocking the signal they receive, a bit like a mobile phone signal blocker, that could be activated around the cities? Or something that would instantly drain the battery.
Ideally so it makes them crash in unoccupied areas.

I'm sure better minds than mine have considered this. Ideally, the signal would be reprogrammed and sent back from where it came from.

The Moscow-appointed governor of Kherson has said that civilians are 'banned' from entering the region for seven days.

Musk is an autistic man trying to tell people what to do, when he doesn't fully understand how relationships work.

His own personal life is testament to how he doesn't manage them well or fully understand the concept of boundaries.

He just thinks everyone should be like him and lacks the ability to understand variations on that.

But he's so enormously arrogant he thinks he can just wade in and 'help'.

He doesn't understand his own limitations.

They are apparently burying barrells of chemicals in Kherson.

twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1582648745493086208?s=20&t=uabwVHzSXO4r7aiSacRAkw

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs claims they were unaware of Russian attacks on Kyiv using Iranian drones. - Assume they mean not aware in advance.

I don't doubt you but just to check where you have seen this? Very serious if true!

The US announcement yesterday included the authorisation of sending US jammers to Ukraine to interfere with drones.

I think they'd previously held off doing this because they didn't want the technology captured by the Russians and that was a significant risk to US defence capabilities.

The situation has changed and Russia are unlikely to be able to make significant advances and take ground again, so the risk profile has changed.

Not only that but it's clear Ukraine is going to be part of NATOs / USs future plans even if its not part of NATO. Sending jammers is a sign of long term commitment and partnership with Ukraine.

I have heard it from friends who have family there. Which is why I caveat it with apparently but I'd say it's reliable information.

Oh dear. I hope they are all staying as safe as they can ❤️

They're not being actively steered by somebody back at HQ, they do however need to a greater or lesser extent a signal from one of the four satellite navigation systems that are now available (there's GPS, GLONASS - Russian, Galileo - European, and the Chinese system whose name escapes me). I'd also be expecting a back up mode (inertial navigation) if sat nav gets lost.

All sounds very techy but you can buy sat nav kits and small inertial navigation units now very easily for use in home made drones and other domestic applications.

As for actually operating the things - the route ( usually a sequence waypoints to fly over) will be loaded into internal memory prior to flight and then off it flies, nobody at the steering wheel.

If all the satellite navigation signals over an area are degraded then there's often software in the navigation receiver that can detect that navigation accuracy is being compromised and will block that input. Chances are then the drone would revert to inertial navigation, which will still take it to the target but probably not with the precision satnav can provide.

yeah, when they were staying with us, they kept getting info which was later on confirmed by (reputable!) sources.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-18

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued to target critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure with air, missile, and drone strikes.

Russian troops conducted a limited ground attack in northern Kharkiv Oblast, seemingly suggesting that Russian forces may retain territorial aspirations in Kharkiv Oblast despite massive losses during recent Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Current and former US officials confirmed that members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) are in Russian-occupied Crimea to train Russian forces on how to use the Iranian drones they purchased, thereby enabling likely Russian war crimes.

Belarus continues to provide its territory and airspace to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine but remains highly unlikely to enter the war on Russia’s behalf.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast to regain lost positions.

Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations across the entire frontline in Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and ammunition depots in central Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Russian authorities are struggling to cope with their reduced logistics capacity through Crimea following the attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge.

Russian occupation authorities kidnapped Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) personnel, likely to strengthen physical control over the ZNPP’s operations.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed that mobilization ended on October 17 in Moscow Oblast, and Russian civilians continue to express their dissatisfaction with Russian mobilization.

Russian occupation officials are attempting to incentivize Ukrainian citizens under Russian control in northern Kherson Oblast to flee to Russia as Ukrainian forces advance, and occupation authorities may increasingly force Ukrainian civilians to relocate further behind the frontlines or to Russia in the coming days.

+++

⚡️ Stoltenberg: NATO to send drone defense to Ukraine in coming days.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Oct. 18 that the alliance will provide Ukraine with anti-drone air defense systems to defend itself from Iranian-made drones, reported Reuters.

⚡️ Intelligence chief: Ukraine will win war by next summer.
The Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate Head Kyrylo Budanov said he predicts “significant victories” for Ukraine and that the war “should be over” by next summe

Intelligence chief: Russian war criminal Girkin is in Ukraine.

⚡️Ex-lawmaker detained after attempting to bribe Dnipro mayor with €22 million.
The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) reported on Oct. 18 that Ukrainian property developer and ex-lawmaker Maksym Mykytas attempted to bribe Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov.

⚡️New York Times: Iran sends drone trainers to Crimea to help Russia's war effort.

⚡️Power restored at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi reported on Oct. 18 that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has restored the connection to its last remaining operating 750-kilovolt power line after the third outage in ten days.

⚡️Reuters: US, allies to discuss Iranian drones at UN Security Council.

⚡️ Governor: Ukraine repels Russia's attack near liberated Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast.
According to Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhii Haidai, Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian attacks on Oct. 18, including the one near the recently-liberated village of Bilohorivka.

+++

🇺🇦🇩🇪 Germany handed over another batch of military aid to Ukraine — website of the Federal Government
Armored engineer vehicles, 35 load-handling trucks, and 4,000 sleeping bags were provided. In addition:

• 240,000 winter hats;
• 80,000 winter trousers;
• 116,000 winter jackets;
• 195 generators;
• 200 tents;
• 167,000 rounds of ammunition for firearms;
• 7 heavy and medium bridge systems;
• 10 Bergepanzer 2 (BPz-2) armored recovery vehicles.

‼️ In 11 days, Russia carried out more than 190 strikes with missiles and kamikaze drones in 16 regions of Ukraine, the State Emergency Service reports

📡 Communication is being restored to the de-occupied part of the Kherson region
"Starlink systems have been handed over," wrote Mykhailo Fedorov, the Minister of Digital Transformation.

⚡️On October 18, Türkiye test-fired a locally manufactured ballistic missile as part of a secret missile project called Tayfun, Bloomberg reports
According to the publication's sources, the missile was launched at 07:00 local time from a mobile platform at an airport near the port city of Rize. The projectile flew 561 kilometers before falling off the coast of the port of Sinop.

Iran confirmed supplies of new weapons to Russia: "Where they are used is not the seller's problem”
The agreement between Iran and Russia was concluded on October 6, when an Iranian delegation arrived in Moscow.
"Where they are used is not the seller's problem. We do not take sides in the Ukraine crisis like the West. We want to see the crisis resolved diplomatically," the Iranian diplomat said.

HIgh losses again and 1 plane down

(we've learned to swim a bit!)

I think the concern from NATO must be (and always has been) about escalation from chemical weapons and nukes. The nukes get the headlines but Russia has used chemicals before and at the end of the siege of Mariupol it was very much on the cards. And perhaps that is, at this point, more in minds than headlines suggest especially if the above Intel is also getting through to the Ukrainian military (if its true, its not going to be friends and family of people on MN who know this - indeed I've just found similar report on twitter from 1st Oct. Will boot up laptop and link)

The change of the head of the Russian army must also be of concern as he was instrumental in what happened in Syria.

When the Russians say 'difficult decisions will need to be made' it's always going to be troubling. We are in the context of newly mobilised men being referred to as 'speed bumps'.

We also have the threat of the hydro-electric dam being blown.

So i think you have to say, at some point, they will abandon a certain number of their own forces in Kherson.

One of the things with Mariupol there was internal criticism over was the fact that 'Russian citizens' weren't properly 'evacuated' and had to live through the Russian bombardment of the city.

Its always been worried about what would happen once Russia left Kherson. Its been said for months that the Russians would probably repeat Mariupol to make it uninhabitable.

So any citizens left will be simultaneously traitors or victims of Ukraine (especially if Ukraine do take out the remaining Bridges). And soliders left abandoned will be either cowards, heroes or victims of Ukraine. They are setting up the narrative already.

So for me there's three points here:

1. When Ukraine blow the bridges / When Russia blow the dam.
2. How many Russians / Civilians are left behind as a result.
3. What vengance Russia takes out on Kherson.

Civilians really are in a hostage situation already. Russia will have no hesitation in killing their own if it comes to it. That's the terrifying bit.

That meeting in the US comes at a critical time. I hope we don't have the bullshit 'well at least it was only chemical weapons not nukes'.

But yeah, nerves HAVE to be jangling over this offensive.

Discussion around chemical weapons does seem to have been virtually non-existent lately. Agree though that it should be given the same level of gravity as a nuclear weapon. Chemical weapons are absolutely hideous. I'll never get the images of those civilians in Syria who had been attacked with sarin out of my head.

Yes, exactly.
Whenever Musk is so arrogant and wrong it’s almost hard to believe I just think ‘Thai cave rescue submarine’. It’s just how he is. It’s likely resulted from autism combining with his being incredibly successful. Successful middle aged man assuming they have useful and original things to say about areas completely outside their expertise are a common thing and he is an extreme version partly because he is extremely successful.

The other thought that crossed my mind is that if the Russian occupying forces are burying chemicals (depends on where), are they setting up a scenario that if the Ukrainians happen to bomb that area and in so doing, release the chemicals, the Russians will claim that as "proof" that the Ukrainians are using chemical weapons

Or is that taking Machiavellian conspiracy theories too far?

Ok, I've done a bit of digging around on this. Having traced it back, a lot of the speculation on twitter about weird things being buried comes from this facebook link from what I can tell. I have no idea if thats the original source.
m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2290561871101155&id=100004420939335

The best discussion on twitter about this (together with better video footage) is here:
twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1576207892117704706

The comments below put some debate about the location. Some are saying its actually located near the Zaporizhzhia front line rather than Kherson.

Lots of people are saying its gas cannisters however I did find an alternative explanation in the comments which seems plausible from a military blogger.

Def Mon made a comment about the video here:
twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1576223563656617984

Def Mon AT DefMon3
This has been posted quite a bit now. I saw this earlier today and I think these are naval mines with the explosive cord of an UR-77. I believe they are either getting rid of naval mines, or they are making an insane IED.

And below that was this:

Draxx Them Sklounst AT sklounst_them
I think this is next to a levy. Maybe they want to blow the levy in conjunction with destroying a dam somewhere else upstream.

Remember all this is dated 1st October.

There was also a rumour on twitter around the 6th that the Russians had used chemical weapons on Ukrainians. This was largely felt to be fake but I'm putting it out there so if anyone has come across it / does come across it, they know. It was apparently just to demoralise Ukrainian soliders...

This all does make me feel slightly less nervous, because its entirely possible that this is where the rumour has started from (thus making it a credible concern with foundation) but perhaps with a alternative explanation which does seem to tie well with recent developments.

I've often found that information tends to end up on Ukrainian/Russian social media long before it ends up in English/being verified and Ukrainians are talking amongst themselves about things long before we become aware. Its tends not to be Ukrainian friends seeing things firsthand but seeing it on social media though. This would seemingly fit that pattern.

Hopefully this might offer a little comfort with friends/family in Kherson and there are no barrels of chemicals.

For those interested, Prof. Michael Clarke will be answering questions live from 7pm on the Sky News feed regarding the 'battle for Kherson'.

@prettybird
The other thought that crossed my mind is that if the Russian occupying forces are burying chemicals (depends on where), are they setting up a scenario that if the Ukrainians happen to bomb that area and in so doing, release the chemicals, the Russians will claim that as "proof" that the Ukrainians are using chemical weapons Hmm

quite, quite sure you are right.

I fear that the chemicals will be extremely dangerous to the city and people.

Some drones are remote-controlled, and their command signals can be jammed. They're usually programmed to return to their launch point if that happens if they still have GPS capability.

The one-time use attack drones Iran has supplied are just being given target coordinates and launched. Those can be disabled if you can jam the GPS signal they're getting.