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Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

990 replies

MagicFox · 11/10/2022 21:24

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

OP posts:
Thread gallery
52
PerkingFaintly · 15/10/2022 23:30

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 15/10/2022 21:22

Newly mobilised troops already coming home in body bags. It's tragic for both sides, they're not all murdering rapists.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/15/my-son-has-died-russia-mourns-loss-of-first-drafted-soldiers-in-ukraine?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Awful. Just awful. All those young men being sent to die – and to kill.

All for the fever dreams of an ageing tyrant.

ScrollingLeaves · 15/10/2022 23:36

This was just on Radio 4. I just caught the tail end, but it very much seemed to draw the link of this as the beginning of what was to culminate in Russia’s invasion in February.

The Maidan Uprising
The Reunion

In November 2013, a mass protest began in Kyiv’s central square that would have a profound impact on Ukraine for years to come. The target was President Viktor Yanukovych and his culture of corruption. Nine years earlier, he’d been thrown out of office after rigging an election, but after 3 years back in power, he’d built up a vast personal estate on the outskirts of the city with golf course, private zoo and a full-size replica of a Spanish galleon.

But his perceived ties with Russia were the real problem and they stood in the way of a historic economic agreement with Europe that had been 20 years in the making. Thousands filled Kyiv’s central Square – the Maidan. On social media, they called their protest the “Euro-Maidan” and it was a name that stuck.

But what started as a peaceful protest turned shockingly violent. Sticks and stones became Molotov cocktails, stun grenades and tear gas, rubber bullets were replaced by the real thing.

Kirsty Wark is joined by five people who were there. Hanna Hopko was a representative of the Maidan Public Sector. She addressed the crowds and attended to the wounded in St. Michael's Cathedral. Valentin Nalivaichenko was a former Head of the secret service. Arseniy Yatsenyuk was the leader of one of the opposition parties who became a leader of the protests (and later Ukraine’s Prime Minister). Yaroslav Hrytsak was a historian who observed the protests at first hand and was often interviewed on radio and television and Gabriel Gatehouse was a BBC Correspondent who covered the protests from the start.

^Presenter: Kirsty Wark
Producer: Nina Bielova^

^Series Producer: David Prest
A Whistledown production for BBC Radio 4^

ScrollingLeaves · 15/10/2022 23:38

Radio 4
The Maidan Uprising
The Reunion

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001byv2

MissConductUS · 15/10/2022 23:45

Here's a good article from the WSJ on public sentiment on the war in Russia. It sounds like ordinary Russians are getting concerned. Interesting that it has lowered property prices as people flee or get conscripted and sell or rent their housing.

Public Sentiment in Russia Darkens Over Ukraine War - Call-up of more men to military service and talk of nuclear weapons are rattling citizens

MOSCOW—President Vladimir Putin’s massive military mobilization and escalating talk of nuclear weapons in the protracted Ukraine conflict are rattling many Russians, including urban elites for whom the war had seemed far in the background.

The WhatsApp messaging group for residents of a stately post-World War II apartment building on a major thoroughfare in downtown Moscow, viewed by The Wall Street Journal, is peppered with messages of concern: “Is the bomb shelter in the basement still habitable?”; “Who do we need to contact to get it inspected?”; “Where are the entrances located?”

In some urban centers, apartments are being put up for sale or rent at fire-sale rates, say real-estate experts, as hundreds of thousands of Russian men have left the country since Mr. Putin ordered the call-up of reservists to generate new troops to fight in Ukraine.

Nearly half of Russians said they were alarmed and felt fearful following Mr. Putin’s announcement of the draft, while another 13% said they felt anger, according to a poll last month by Levada Center, a nongovernmental sociological research organization, of 1,631 people over the age of 18 in urban and rural areas of 50 regions.

A poll by the state Public Opinion Foundation published around the same time as the Levada survey also showed that the prevailing mood among Russians was now one of unease, according to 70% of 1,500 respondents.

“Now is a really unusual situation for our country and a new collective psychotrauma,” Ekaterina Kolesnikova, director of North-West, a private research center for the study of management practices and the social-political mood, wrote on the group’s Telegram page earlier this month.

The disquiet—especially among well-to-do urban Russians who had been somewhat sheltered from a war in which many of those killed were from poorer regions—threatens to erode support for Mr. Putin, said some experts who follow Russia’s domestic policies and their political and social repercussions.

Both Western Kremlin-watchers and many Russian political analysts who back Mr. Putin say that public discontent over the Russian president’s policies is unlikely to throw him off course or shake his control. But observers of Russia’s political landscape say the dissatisfaction threatens to spread, and the Kremlin does closely monitor Mr. Putin’s approval ratings. Policy analysts noted that while many Russians were willing to tolerate their president’s restrictions on political freedoms, they did so on the understanding that their lives and the country’s prosperity wouldn’t be destabilized.

“Many people feel disappointed, somehow deceived even, in the sense that they simply did not expect this turn of events,” said Grigorii Golosov, a political scientist at the European University at St. Petersburg. “Of course, it undermines their trust both in the Russian leadership in the short term and in the long-term perspective.”

The Kremlin didn’t respond to a request for comment on whether it was concerned about growing public discontent.

Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said recently that it was understandable that current events would trigger certain unsettled emotions, but the Kremlin hadn’t seen much polarization in Russian society. He told the RBC Russian business media group in an interview last month before the mobilization that this year had seen a “union among citizens and their consolidation around the head of state.”

A number of issues are contributing to growing unease. The annexation of Ukrainian territory without Russia’s having full control, failures on the battlefield that allowed Ukraine to regain ground, and Mr. Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons are feeding public uncertainty and doubt about the soundness of Kremlin strategy, analysts said.

One of the prevailing concerns, according to analysts, is the recent mobilization, which has left few segments of the population untouched. Officially called a partial mobilization, the call-up has wide reach that is hitting home in many cities. It includes men with previous military service or expertise and those currently in the reserve, among other criteria, according to official state media. Early in the war, Mr. Putin promised that only professional military personnel would participate in what the Kremlin calls its special military operation.

On Friday, Mr. Putin said the mobilization effort would be completed in two weeks and that at this time no further call-up was planned. He said that some 222,000 out of a scheduled draft of 300,000 people had been mobilized, with 16,000 already performing combat missions.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense said last month that 5,937 Russian soldiers had died since the conflict began in February. The Pentagon estimates the number of Russia’s war dead and wounded could be as high as 80,000.

Public anxiety is reflected in recent posts on a St. Petersburg group page on VKontakte, Russia’s version of Facebook, where a woman who identified herself as Yanochka Pogodina wrote, “This is some kind of terrible dream. Lord, let us wake up in peacetime!”

A man identifying himself as Pavel Petrov responded, “Yanochka, this won’t be settled by itself. Everything is going to hell.”

In the Irkutsk region of southeastern Siberia, psychologists, psychotherapists and psychiatrists are offering free consultation to the relatives of those called up to fight, according to health authorities in the region.

Following the announcement of mobilization, Maria Gribova, director of a construction and real-estate consulting firm in St. Petersburg, noticed an increase in people there selling their apartments at a discount on previous market rates—sometimes between 10% and 20%. “People are worried about the safety of their money,” she said. “People don’t want to take additional risks... We don’t know if tomorrow we will have our man with us or if he will suddenly be called up.”

There has been a marked increase in people renting out their apartments in big cities, either because they are leaving or as a source of additional income, and this has brought down rent prices, according to specialists in the rental market.

“The most negative thing that has already happened is the disappearance of the illusion that hostilities are taking place somewhere far away and do not affect economic development,” said Oleg Buklemishev, director of the Economic Policy Research Center at Moscow State University.

minsmum · 15/10/2022 23:51

mobile.twitter.com/AKurkov/status/1581291384602243072 the conductor of the Kherson Philharmonic orchestra has been killed for refusing to work with the Russian occupiers

minsmum · 15/10/2022 23:59

mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1581332066209517568 referendum in Warsaw as to whether to annex the Russian embassy

Ijsbear · 16/10/2022 00:03

mm ... those are only two people though.

An acquaintance in the Dutch military had a boyfriend who served in the DutchBat during the Kosovan war. When he was told he would have to serve overseas again he killed himself.

minsmum · 16/10/2022 00:03

mobile.twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1579922008875626498 Polish stadium a few days ago in the champions league awash with Polish and Ukrainian colours.

Sorry I am just catching up as I have been out all day

Igotjelly · 16/10/2022 00:05

minsmum · 15/10/2022 23:51

mobile.twitter.com/AKurkov/status/1581291384602243072 the conductor of the Kherson Philharmonic orchestra has been killed for refusing to work with the Russian occupiers

This is so sad.

Ijsbear · 16/10/2022 00:22

The point being that reports of a very few killing themselves can't be taken as representative, though it's tragic for the families involved. Specially in the context of 300k - 1m being mobilized

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/10/2022 00:35

22;20 🇨🇳Chinese Foreign Ministry urges its citizens in Ukraine 🇺🇦 to leave the country immediately.

Why now? I hope this doesn't point to further escalation.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 33
Greenshake · 16/10/2022 00:50

OR or could mean China is finally pulling the plug on The Kremlin….

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/10/2022 00:56

I hope you're right Greenshake that would be a result, the same source on twitter is also saying Kazakhstan is closing 🇺🇦 embassy.
BTL Lots of speculation about another attack on Kyiv, other people saying it's just Russian scare tactics/mind games.

XanaduKira · 16/10/2022 01:00

Fingers crossed @Greenshake

Greenshake · 16/10/2022 01:07

God I hope so. There has been a lot of back-pedalling and seemingly more conciliatory comments from Vlad and co in the last week, almost suspiciously so.

Greenshake · 16/10/2022 01:16

From the Global Times on Monday just gone

Ukraine Invasion: Part 33
MagicFox · 16/10/2022 07:48

I see the embassy stuff has been covered: it looks like China et al are expecting more flattenings of Kyiv and are warning citizens to get out.

Haven't seen anything of note reported re Xi's speech at the congress, just a repeat of the position on Taiwan: hoping for peaceful reunification, won't rule out force.

Mini Twitter round up from this morning's scroll:

@francisscarr "I'm honestly speechless. This is a fast-track mass wedding for Russian conscripts in St Petersburg. According to this local TV report, being mobilised to fight in Ukraine is now considered a valid reason for speeding up the marriage registration process" twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1581391693537869824?s=46&t=HfFFq7SXs3D7c6Q0AvDaxA

@justicenafo How surreal this is is :)) Zelensky singing new years songs on Russian state TV with russian tv hosts, while Solovyov happily dancing. Life can be very weird sometimes twitter.com/justicenafo/status/1581197557853659141?s=46&t=HfFFq7SXs3D7c6Q0AvDaxA (this really does feel like a parallel universe)

@peterzeihan Ukraine just initiated a media blackout on Kherson news. That’s what Kyiv does when it begins big military ops. The final push to liberate the city is beginning…now.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 16/10/2022 08:15

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/10/2022 00:35

22;20 🇨🇳Chinese Foreign Ministry urges its citizens in Ukraine 🇺🇦 to leave the country immediately.

Why now? I hope this doesn't point to further escalation.

It comes in the context of bombings in safer regions and the Belarusian announcement.

I think you have to watch the north.

China were very pissed off at not being told about the initial invasion. They were caught out.

The west is also holding its breathe at the moment about the what next bit. There is no reason why China isn't necessarily in exactly the same boat in terms of anticipation. The US issued a similar notice a few days back.

DrBlackbird · 16/10/2022 08:26

Greenshake · 16/10/2022 01:07

God I hope so. There has been a lot of back-pedalling and seemingly more conciliatory comments from Vlad and co in the last week, almost suspiciously so.

I was thinking the same. Why say anything at all? Is Putin making conciliatory noises ahead of a bigger missile attack in a psych op move?

RedToothBrush · 16/10/2022 08:30

Holding my breathe of Kherson. Yesterday there were reports on patterns of blasts (visible to independent monitors via satellite) being incredibly substantial around Mylove yesterday.

They are also able to establish where the front line around Svatove is from the pattern of Russian artillery bombing. The Ukrainians are inching in on three separate approaches now, though there are increasing reports of mud being an issue. Sounds like they have some days to go before they are fully positioned and cut off Svatove but it's hard to see how they can lose momentum they have there now due to the geography. The mud will hamper the Russians just as much and that will be more critical for resupplies / tactical retreat in haste...

This week looks likely to be a big one.

The northern border issue is troubling. The strategic move would be to come down the western flank of Ukraine at speed to block routes in and out, rather than to go for Kyiv again straight away. However we are talking about Russia and strategy hasn't been their strong point to date.

Military strategists are bewildered by the fighting around Bakhmut. Russian tactics seem to be to assault all along the front at the same time, in warfare reminiscent of WWI trench warfare. This is where a lot of Wagner forces are concentrated. This is easier to defend against rather than focusing on weak points and using an overwhelm strategy. Its pinning down Ukrainian forces and leading to heavy losses but its unlikely to make a significant difference if fighting on other front leads to Russian collapses.

RedToothBrush · 16/10/2022 08:38

DrBlackbird · 16/10/2022 08:26

I was thinking the same. Why say anything at all? Is Putin making conciliatory noises ahead of a bigger missile attack in a psych op move?

Remember who is now in command of the army (allegedly). The guy who ran operations in Syria.

In Syria Russia was well known for organising ceasefires when things weren't going so well on the battlefield to enable a strategic regrouping for their own benefit. At which point they would break said ceasefire.

Putin's tone change could be attributed to panic that Russia is losing. Equally it could also be a tried and tested strategic policy to weaken Western unity and to allow for regrouping.

Remember things are somewhat time critical for the Ukrainians headed into winter and whilst the bridge is getting emergency sticking plasters. Yesterday I believe there were Russian reports that ferries weren't running to Crimea due to the weather, which many on twitter referred to as 'the weather'. Regardless of what the actual cause was, ferries not running is a problem for Russia.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/10/2022 11:03

Interesting twitter thread from Dr Mike Martin re the last week and the next push in the Ukrainian war:

twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1581497008007045122?s=61&t=m5_vMd8I4q3dj8aQ8Z8BOw

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/10/2022 11:07

And one correction to the above thread:

▪️Small correction: the Kerch bridge is the 𝙤𝙣𝙡𝙮 Russian military rail connection left to the south of Ukraine.
▪️The rail line above Mariupol is inoperable: it's cut at Donetsk & runs just a few miles from current front-lines & can be hit.
▪️Ukraine cut that line months ago.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/10/2022 12:17

This intercepted call reveals how defensive lines operate for the Russians: first in the line are convicts guarded by mobiks in the second line, who are in turn guarded by regular forces.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1581601563432603648?s=61&t=m5_vMd8I4q3dj8aQ8Z8BOw

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 16/10/2022 12:59

That worked for them in WWII so they probably see no reason to change a winning formula.