Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Amazing singing in the squares but was it wise to publicly gloat about the bridge.

Yes I was posting about the demonstration in Prague in support of Ukraine

Putin will bomb and kill Ukrainians if people gloat, and he'll bomb and kill Ukrainians if they don't.

We really, really can't be intimidated by this piss poor excuse for a human being who keeps drawing Red Lines and then stepping backwards and drawing another one, and then stepping back and drawing yet another.

I agree. I find it funny when the Russians tell us that we had better not send the Ukrainians any more HIMARS or there will be consequences.

Yes! Stepping away from the barbarity of it all, it’s the sheer audacity!

Totally agree @Ijsbear

I've been looking for reporting on the Starlink issue. Ukrainian troops 12 miles east of Lyman say it's working.

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63194377

Thanks, that's a relief

Looking at the bridge at some point today.

One rail line still not working and needing attention.

How safe is it to use the undamaged line? but, but...

When the pan takes in the lower surviving side road bridge there's no traffic on it.

twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1579540950375768065

The rails are warped from the heat of the fire. There are steel reinforcing bars (called "rebar") in the concrete that will also have been affected. The concrete itself doesn't withstand fire.

The Effects of Fire on Concrete

So I'm doubtful that the railroad can operate at anything like normal capacity.

Concerns about another offensive being launched against Kyiv from Belarus:

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1579504475202781184?s=61&t=AQ5EcVN-lggedJ83Wr7teg

This from The Telegraph:

Threat looms of Kyiv invasion as Putin’s troops mass on Belarus border
Russia’s staunchest ally gives strongest indication yet that it will deploy troops against its neighbour Ukraine

Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president, have agreed to form a joint group of troops on the Ukrainian border, amid fears of a new ground invasion of Kyiv.
Mr Lukashenko told a security meeting that he and the Russian president last weekend agreed to bring their troops together “due to tensions on the western border” of Belaruss_.
The strongman president’s comments came just a few hours after Ukrainian cities suffered a devastating barrage of strikes, with the capital Kyiv bombed for the first time since the spring as Russia sought to retaliate after an apparent attack on the bridge linking Russia with Crimeaa_.
Mr Lukashenko did not specify how many Belarusian troops would be deployed, nor where exactly they will be sent to. But the statement is the closest he has come to admitting a possibility of sending Belarusian troops into Ukrainee_.
The Belarusian dictator, who was nearly toppled by nationwide protests in 2020, also instructed his military to get ready to house several thousand Russian troops arriving in Belarus in the coming dayss_, in an ominous sign that Moscow might attempt to encircle Kyiv again.

Belarus served as a launchpad for the Russian invasionn_ of Ukraine in February, letting Russian troops roll into northern Ukraine to attack the suburbs of Kyiv and Chernihiv before a full retreat in April.
On Monday, Ukraine accused Russia of using Iranian-made drones launched from Belarus to carry out some of the deadly strikes in the morning.

Belarus served as a launchpad for the Russian invasionn_ of Ukraine in February, letting Russian troops roll into northern Ukraine to attack the suburbs of Kyiv and Chernihiv before a full retreat in April.
On Monday, Ukraine accused Russia of using Iranian-made drones launched from Belarus to carry out some of the deadly strikes in the morning.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Volodymyr Zelensky, condemned Mr Lukashenko for “selling the last crumbs of sovereignty to Russia”.
“The statement about hosting a Russian contingent in Belarus is simply about formalising the occupation,” he said, insisting that Kyiv does not believe that a second Russian invasion from Belarus was likely.
On Monday, the European Commission warned Belarus against helping Russia, urging Minsk to refrain from any involvement in Moscow’s “brutal, illegitimate undertaking” that violated the United Nations Charter and international law.
Peter Stano, the Commission’s spokesman, threatened the Lukashenko regime with “new and strong restrictive measures” if it were to join the Russian invasion.

He also accused neighbouring countries of training Belarusian “radicals” who have been fighting Russian troops in Ukraine.
“The training in Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine of Belarusian radical militants for them to carry out sabotage, terrorist attacks and to organise a military mutiny in the country is becoming a direct threat,” he said.
Exiled Belarusians who fled the post-election crackdown in 2020 have formed two volunteer battalions in Ukraine to fight the Russian invasion.
Alexander Kartapolov, the chairman of the State Duma’s defence committee, rejected potential plans to deploy Belarusian troops in Ukraine, insisting that the joint deployment “aims to alleviate concerns of our Belarusian brothers”.

Nine drones launched from Belarus and Crimea were destroyed, the Ukrainian military said.
Mr Lukashenko also sought to portray the future joint deployment as a response to Ukraine’s alleged plans to launch an attack on Belarus.
<img class="responsive lazy-imageimg article-body-imagesource" src="/content/dam/world-news/2022/10/10/TELEMMGLPICT000310667599transNvBQzQNjv4BqpVlberWd9EgFPZtcLiMQf0RfWk3V23H2268PXkPxc.jpeg?imwidth=480" alt="Alexander Lukashenko, pictured with Vladimir Putin, has been accused by Ukrainian leaders of ‘selling the last crumbs of sovereignty to Russia’" loading="lazy" width="2500" height="1563"/>

Article in The Telegraph reporting on a speech to be made later today:

Russian people turning on Vladimir Putin and his war, UK spy chief says

The Russian people are losing faith in Vladimir Putin’s “war of choice”, the head of GCHQ has said.

It is becoming clear to the Russian people quite how badlyy_ Putin has “misjudged the situation,” according to Sir Jeremy Fleming.
The Director of GCHQ, Britain’s cyber security agency, will use a speech in London on Tuesday to highlight the ongoing threats from Russia and China.
He will say Russian forces are now in a “desperate situation” as they seek to prosecute the disastrous war in Ukraine.
Sir Jeremy will say: “Far from the inevitable Russian military victory that their propaganda machine spouted, it’s clear that Ukraine’s courageous action on the battlefield and in cyberspace is turning the tide.
“Having failed in two major military strategies already, Putin’s plan has hit the courageous reality of Ukrainian defence.
“With little effective internal challenge, his decision-making has proved flawed. It’s a high-stakes strategy that is leading to strategic errors in judgement.”

‘Their gains are being reversed’
In the annual security lecture for the Royal United Services Institute defence think tank, Sir Jeremy will hint that the intelligence agency he leads has a good idea of how poorly equippedd_ Putin’s troops are in Ukraine.
“Their gains are being reversed,” he will say. “The costs to Russia – in people and equipment are staggering.
“We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out.
“Russia’s forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilisation of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation.”
The Russian population “has started to understand that too,” he will say.
“They’re seeing just how badly Putin has misjudged the situation. They’re fleeing the draft, realising they can no longer travel.
“They know their access to modern technologies and external influences will be drastically restricted. And they are feeling the extent of the dreadful human cost of his war of choice.”
Ukrainian officials believe more than 61,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the war since Feb 24, although Western officials cite a lower figure.

Sir Jeremy will also highlight the dangers posed by the Chinese leadership, warning that Beijing is using its financial and scientific muscle to manipulate strategically important technologies which shape the global tech ecosystem.
While the UK and its allies seek science and tech advancement, such as in quantum computing and artificial intelligence, to enable prosperity, the GCHQ head will say China uses such development as a “tool to gain advantage through control of their markets, of those in their sphere of influence and of their own citizens”.
He will highlight the paradox that China’s “great strength combined with fear is driving China into actions that could represent a huge threat to us all”.
Warning of the immediacy of the threat, he will say now is a moment that “will define our future,” urging the science and tech community in like-minded countries to work together.
“The Chinese leadership believes it draws its strength, its authority, from the closed, one-party system. They seek to secure their advantage through scale and through control.
“They see nations as either potential adversaries or potential client states, to be threatened, bribed or coerced.
“The party has bet their future on this approach, shutting off the many alternative futures for the Chinese people in the process. They hope that future success, based on this system, will be inevitable.
“But underlying that belief is a sense of fear. Fear of its own citizens, of freedom of speech, free trade, open technological standards and alliances – the whole open, democratic order and the international rules-based system.
“It is no surprise that while the Chinese nation has worked to build its advanced economy, the Party has used its resources to implement draconian national security laws, a surveillance culture and the increasingly aggressive use of military might.
“We’re seeing that fear play out through the manipulation of the technological ecosystems which underpin our everyday lives – from monitoring its own citizens and restricting free speech to influencing financial systems and new domains.”

Thank you once again to everyone who contributes, I am very grateful for this thread for the source of information in one place and the continuous moral support from you all. 🌻

I wonder about the Belarusians, and how strong a grip Lukashenko holds over his people. In the past he had to rely heavily on Putin to stamp out any public dissent. I wonder if the people of Belarus were to rise against his regime once more right now, would they maybe succeed? Without Putin’s troops what does Lukashenko have?

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted massive, coordinated missile strikes on over 20 Ukrainian cities.

President Vladimir Putin claimed that the coordinated missile strikes were in retaliation for the explosion on the Kerch Strait Bridge, likely in part to curry favor with “pro-war” factions.

Russian and Belarusian ground forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine from Belarusian territory to the north.

Ukrainian forces have likely liberated over 200 square kilometers of territory in western Luhansk Oblast as of October 10.

Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to regain recently lost territory in northwest Kherson Oblast while reinforcing nearby positions with damaged and hastily mobilized units.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian and occupation administration officials are setting conditions to move up to 40,000 residents out of Kherson Oblast to Russian-occupied Crimea and the Russian Federation.

Russian forces cannot supply mobilized forces, likely due to years of supply theft by contract soldiers and commanders.

+++

⚡️ Biden pledges advanced air defense systems to Ukraine.

⚡️Forbes estimates Russia's Oct. 10 missile strikes cost $400-700 million.

Demonstrators gathered in Tbilisi on Oct. 10 to protest against Russia’s latest missile strikes all across Ukraine.

⚡️British Prime Minister to call urgent meeting of NATO leaders after Russia's latest attacks.
British Prime Minister Liz Truss will join a virtual gathering of Group of Seven leaders, which will also include Ukrainian President Zelensky, on Oct. 11.
Truss will ask countries "to maintain biting sanctions" against Russia and will call for a full meeting of NATO leaders in the coming days, according to a statement by the prime minister's office.

⚡️Kyiv residents reduce electricity consumption by quarter after government request.

(First day outdoors, with a heating plate for if it gets a bit nippy)

@Ijsbear, they are getting big

Thank you everyone who contributes, this is my go to place for information, I can't contribute much but really appreciate the input and discussions.

they’re getting so big! Lovely to see.

Glad to see the assessment of Belarus attacking is low.

Is Starlink operating again? It’s concerning isn’t it when a private firm, subject to the whims of an mercurial owner, plays such an important role in a war…

I posted this last night.

MissConductUS · Yesterday 21:56
I've been looking for reporting on the Starlink issue. Ukrainian troops 12 miles east of Lyman say it's working.
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63194377

If you look back a bit further, I and notimagain posted that SL's geofencing was the most likely explanation for the outage in the newly liberated territory. It doesn't operate outside of territory known to be under Ukrainian control.

Kyiv Independent on Twitter:

⚡️ ‘White House: Russia planned for Oct. 10 large-scale attacks before Crimean Bridge explosion.

"It likely was something they had been planning for quite some time," John Kirby, White House national security spokesman, told CNN.’
—though they do go on to say the bridge attack might have accelerated them.

It sounds like Kyiv is quieter today.

Guy Verhofstadt AT guyverhofstadt
Europe's ineffectiveness in this crisis keeps blowing my mind 🤯

US gives 2x support to Ukraine than EU + Member States combined

Europe is slow to pledge and even slower to deliver

Compared with what we see coming from Moscow this is political amateurism & geopolitical madness

What is going on with France?! Germany has been much criticised by France? I appreciate both will contribute indirection via the EU but still thats 27 countries...

Mykola Bielieskov AT MBielieskov
When RU forces find it difficult to stop UA forces’ advances which are at Stelmakhivka now then RU made missile barrage with which steals world mass media front-pages.

Thanks for update @MissConductUS

There were a number of posts on Russian social media last night with the same or similar wording, and probably from categories 1, 2 and 3 of the troll classes, saying that Surovikin had launched 'Destruction Week' yesterday. Tracing them back I kept getting to RT attribution, so I assume it is an official or state supported term. Noting more missiles launched against civilian Ukraine today, it may well be that a run of days of such firing is anticipated. On Ukrainian media there are videos of interceptions and of ground damage.

Briefly exchanging messages with a relative in Dnipro; anxious, stoical, not surprised by the turn of events, looking forward to victory.

Re: Russian bombings/shelling that were being carried out in Ukraine before the bridge attack - does anyone have a collated list of the dates and details?

Really interesting analysis on the 'Ukraine the Latest' Podcast from yesterday. Dominic Nichols explaining the difference between Russia striking the German Consulate (not technically German soil) and if they had to have struck an embassy (which would have
been within the scope of NATO article 5). Still diplomatic ramifications but much less so.

Also touched on the Chinese response yesterday. Whilst 'shallow end' of what has been said in response he noted that its interesting they came out so quickly following Russia's actions and that it was clearly in reference to the Russian response to the Kerch bridge. He said that it signals clearly the changing view within Beijing.