Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Agree, the headlines are really irresponsibly. I avoid them now and figure if there's anything that actually has some truth in it, I'll read about it on this thread first.

Speaking of irresponsible headlines, the Daily Mail should be ashamed of this one (not nuclear related) - www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11284819/How-Ukrainian-intelligence-chiefs-tracking-collaborators-worked-Russians.html

Headlines like this do nothing for Western support of Ukraine (as you can well tell by the comments!) Most other news outlets are running with pictures of the gold crowns taken out the mouths of Ukrainians or the gas mask used for torturing people by burying them alive, but oh no not the Daily Mail. Makes me so cross!

In other news not sure what to make of the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil and gas production to try and drive prices up. Twitter seems to be awash with claims its an agreement between the Saudis and Putin to jointly attack the West and to damage Biden's chances in the mid-terms, i'm not sure its that simple. Anyone with more knowledge have any insight?

Another one in agreement here. These threads are a fantastic antidote to the stuff being slung carelessly about in the media. I had a real ‘nuclear wobble’ the other week and it was posters on this thread that calmed me down. I always check in here first.

As an aside, there was a really interesting R4 programme just recently linking that conspiracy to an American pornographer living in the Philippines.

It’s this, I think. The Coming Storm. Very very good.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001324r

Thanks for that, it’s very good at showing things from another angle.

Same as with Pergida Natsku :(

I am sorry people are suffering and there will be more of it to come.

But giving in to Putin is asking for more trouble later. It really is. He wouldn't stop with Ukraine - he has very clearly said so.

It's pain if you support helping Ukraine and pain if you don't. No way out of it; all you can do is look at the long term and see which creates less in the long run.

But I am afraid I think like Natsku that a lot of the blame is because people are deflecting from their own govts and mismanagement.

Brexit and the way it was done have led to massive problems with trading and less investment in poorer areas of the UK, less working together on science (last I heard from my BiL, projects are no longer funded) and the Tories giving tax cuts to the rich was just contemptible. It doesn't help the ordinary person - quite the opposite.

Agree, Ijsbear.

I have a practical question.
What is the easiest way to keep abreast of air raid alerts in Kyiv? One of my guests has had to go back on a flying visit to sort some things out and I would quite like to have some idea of how it is out there without having to ask her husband if he has heard from her every 5 minutes.
I know there is an app but unfortunately there is no room for another one on my very old iPhone.

ISW Key Takeaways

The Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in Kharkiv Oblast has not yet culminated and is actively pushing into Luhansk Oblast.

Russian President Vladimir Putin took measures to assert full Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

Russian forces conducted the first strike on Kyiv Oblast since June with a Shahed-136 drone.

The Head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced that Putin awarded him the rank of Colonel-General.

Increasing domestic critiques of Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Ukrainian troops likely consolidated positions and regrouped in northern Kherson Oblast after making major gains over in the last 48 hours.

Russian sources reported Ukrainian offensive preparations northwest, west, and northeast of Kherson City.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 5.

Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the implementation of the Russian “partial mobilization” on October 5.

Russian citizens who are economically disadvantaged and ethnic minority Russian communities continue to bear a disproportionate burden in mobilization rates and casualty rates according to investigative reports, suggesting that Russian authorities may be deliberately placing poor and minority Russian citizens in more dangerous positions than well-off or ethnic Russians.

Russian President Vladimir Putin completed the final formality in the process for illegally annexing Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories on October 5.

+++

Supreme Court dismisses deputy chairman over Russian citizenship. (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/supreme-court-dismisses-deputy-chairman-over-russian-citizenship)
Ukraine’s Supreme Court Chairman Vsevolod Kniaziev dismissed the deputy chairman Bohdan Lvov on Oct. 5 after Ukraine's Security Service had confirmed that Lvov has a Russian passport.

Putin signs a decree to formalize Russia's illegal seizure of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/putin-signs-a-decree-to-formalize-russias-illegal-seizure-of-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant).

⚡️Security Service exposes more Russian collaborators in occupied areas of Kherson Oblast.
[basically delivered 20+
people into Russian soldiers' hands for expressing support for Ukraine]

⚡️Stoltenberg: NATO will step up support for Ukraine..."NATO will sustain and step up support for Ukraine for as long as it takes," he added. Stoltenberg did not specify what "stepping up" the support would imply.

⚡️Economy Ministry: Almost 3 million Ukrainian refugees are of working age.

More than 6.4 million Ukrainians have fled Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine abroad, while 2.75 million of them are of working age, Interfax news site reports citing Ukraine’s Deputy Economy Minister Tetiana Berezhna.

Some 5 million out of 7.7 million internally displaced Ukrainians have lost their jobs, Berezhna said as reported by Interfax.

New York Time US believes Ukraine was behind killing of daughter of Russian ultra-nationalist. s:(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/new-york-times-us-believes-ukraine-was-behind-killing-of-daughter-of-russian-ultra-nationalist)

According to the New York Times, the U.S. intelligence agencies believe that “parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the car bomb attack” that killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of Russian imperialist Alexander Dugin on Aug. 20. Ukraine had earlier denied involvement.

The U.S. did not take part in the operation “either by providing intelligence or other assistance,” unnamed officials told the New York Times. They also said that some U.S. officials “admonished” unnamed Ukrainian officials “over the assassination,” according to the media.

⚡️Media: Mass burial site found in liberated Lyman, over 50 graves.

⚡️Ukraine liberates more settlements in Kherson, Luhansk oblasts, Novovoskresenske, Novohryhorivka, and Petropavlivka villages in Kherson Oblast.

Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhii Haidai said that six settlements in Luhansk Oblast have been liberated as well.

⚡️The Wall Street Journal: Captured Russian weapons make up the largest supply of heavy weaponry for Ukraine.

📌 The President of Enerhoatom will serve as acting Director General of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

🗣 Russian President Vladimir Putin expects that the difficulties of winter will increase the weariness of the West from the war in Ukraine, said the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell

💡Vladimir Putin is counting on the influx of mobilized Russians to change the dynamics on the battlefield in Ukraine. But analysts say he is losing valuable time as his military operation crumbles under pressure from the Ukrainian offensive.

💳 Citizens of the Russian Federation complain that European banks stop accepting cards of the Chinese UnionPay payment system issued by Russian banks.

💡Putin can do nothing more against Ukraine, this is irreversible, said former CIA director and retired US Army General David Petraeus
At the same time, the general warned that Moscow could still cause serious damage to Ukraine, although this would not change anything on the battlefield.

🫶 Czech Republic will transfer heavy equipment to Ukraine, – Minister of Defense Yana Chernokhova

According to Chernokhova, the new aid package includes heavy equipment, but the Czech Republic does not disclose details due to security concerns.

⚡️The President of Ukraine and the NATO Secretary General coordinated actions regarding Euro-Atlantic integration

🪖 A basic level training course for junior commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has begun on the territory of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

🇧🇾 The leader of the Belarusian opposition, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, said that Belarus is asking the Ukrainians for support
"We are not asking you to fight instead of us. We are asking for your support to give us the strength to fight," she said.

‼️The Russians took away Ukrainian refugees in an unknown direction, who tried to leave through Russia to Estonia – ERR editorial
It happened beyond the southeastern border of Estonia. “Slightly more than a thousand people stood in line to receive a pass, but today they are no longer there – they were put into trucks and taken away,” the Estonian Ministry of Internal Affairs reports.

📊 73% of Americans believe the United States should continue to support Ukraine despite Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons and are increasingly "for" providing arms — Reuters/Ipsos poll

💡WSJ: Russia has become the largest "supplier" of heavy arms for Ukraine
Details: Ukraine has captured 460 Russian main battle tanks, 92 self-propelled howitzers, 448 infantry fighting vehicles, 195 armored fighting vehicles, and 44 multiple-launch rocket systems. The real number is likely higher.

🐻 UAnimals zoo workers rescued a bear from Lyman
The animal is in a terrible state and shell-shocked after the explosions. The bear will be taken to the Wildlife Rescue Center for treatment.

geh, wrong pic at the end

🐻 UAnimals zoo workers rescued a bear from Lyman
The animal is in a terrible state and shell-shocked after the explosions. The bear will be taken to the Wildlife Rescue Center for treatment.

Same. At least the stuff in the broadsheets is (mainly) factual, but there's been some totally batshit reporting from other sources. The ones showing the map drawn by the estate agent showing the places least likely to be nuked in the UK were a particular low point, and littered with completely incorrect information. The press should take their responsibility not to stir public panic much more seriously. And nobody should be published writing about these topics if they don't know what they're talking about and offer only speculation 🤦🏼‍♀️

Oh that poor bear 😢

Muripol is going to be horrific.

I’m not even convinced there will be anything really left to ‘liberate’ in Mariupol. I

Yellowbrickroad, From Ijsbear's takeaways:

🗣 Russian President Vladimir Putin expects that the difficulties of winter will increase the weariness of the West from the war in Ukraine, said the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell

It's going to be tough this winter there's absolutely no doubt.
Like everyone else we've made savings on our energy bills. (Heating won't be going on till it's really cold this year, the hot water temperature has been turned down, tumble dryer not used, microwave rather than oven where possible.)
Still our standing order is 3 times what it was this time last year and due to go up again.

In Europe we definitely need to do more to ensure that those vulnerable to slipping into poverty are able to keep a roof over their heads, heat their homes and eat, not only is that the moral thing to do, but it will also help to stop mass protests that reveal the cracks in our resolve, which only encourage Putin and his hawks to consider their energy hybrid war a success.

Being cold is miserable but the people in Maripol were reduced to collecting rainwater and drinking the water out of their radiators to stay alive, many Ukrainians have been kidnapped, murdered, tortured, castrated, raped, had their children forceably removed, displaced, 'filtrated' - subjected to unbelievable cruelty and pain through no fault of their own, surely we can cope with our own woes which are not in the same league. I can't agree with your statement:
Before anyone says think of the Ukrainians. it doesn't work like that.

I can agree that the rise of far right parties in Europe is a worry and again plays into Putin's hands, indeed he/Russia may well be playing their part in orchestrating their rise.

Just want to thank you all for the ongoing commentary and analysis.

Like many others, I find it invaluable

Much of this already covered by our very own Ijsbear but a good summary from Reuters Ukraine related reporting re-posted on The Guardian's live feed:

	Ukraine said its forces have retaken more settlements in Kherson, one of four partially Russian-occupied regions that President Vladimir Putin formally incorporated into Russia in Europe’s biggest annexation since the second world war.

	A Russian rocket strike destroyed a five-storey apartment block in the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, killing at least one woman and leaving other residents trapped under rubble, the regional governor said.
	The bodies of two Russian soldiers lay bloating in trees on opposite sides of the road, close to the blasted hulks of the cars and the van in which Ukrainian army officers said the dead men’s unit was retreating into the eastern town of Lyman.

	Dozens of firefighters doused blazes in a town near Kyiv after multiple strikes caused by what officials said were Iranian-made loitering munitions, often known as “kamikaze drones”.

	Reuters was not immediately able to verify the battlefield reports.

	Putin signed laws admitting the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Luhansk People’s Republic, Kherson region and Zaporizhzhia region into Russia in the biggest expansion of Russian territory in at least half a century.

	He also said Russia would stabilise the situation in the regions, indirectly acknowledging the challenges it faces to assert its control.

	Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, accused Russia on Thursday of “nuclear blackmail” over its seizure of the Zaporizhzhia power plant in southern Ukraine.

	The Kremlin said it was preparing to welcome the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to Moscow soon.

	Putin said he expected sanctions pressure on the Russian economy to intensify, in televised remarks from a meeting with government officials.
	The European Union gave its final approval for a new batch of sanctions, the bloc’s executive arm said. They include more limits on trade with Russia in steel and tech products, and an oil price cap for Russian seaborne crude deliveries through European insurers to align the EU with Washington.

	A crime scene investigation of the damages on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines has strengthened suspicions of “gross sabotage”, Swedish security police.

	Alexander Novak, the Russian deputy prime minister, said Moscow might cut oil production to offset negative effects from price caps imposed by the west over Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

	Europe may limp through the cold winter months with the help of brimming natural gas tanks despite a plunge in deliveries from Russia, only to enter a deeper energy crisis next year, the head of the International Energy Agency said.

	The Kremlin denied reports that 700,000 Russians had fled the country since Moscow announced a mobilisation drive to call up hundreds of thousands to fight in Ukraine.

	US intelligence agencies believe parts of the Ukrainian government authorised a car bomb attack near Moscow in August that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, the New York Times reported.

In Europe we definitely need to do more to ensure that those vulnerable to slipping into poverty are able to keep a roof over their heads, heat their homes and eat, not only is that the moral thing to do, but it will also help to stop mass protests that reveal the cracks in our resolve, which only encourage Putin and his hawks to consider their energy hybrid war a success.

I agree, but the roots of this go back a long way. Before the war. The levels of poverty have been awful, people struggling to eat, not able to heat their homes. The rich-poor divide getting wider has been that way for years. The Ukrainian conflict is making things worse for the previously-unaffected but this has been coming a long time. Gas and Electricity prices were already going up. Health services going down in the UK.

Focussing on the Ukraine conflict is an easy way to deflect looking at what's really going on. It's made things worse sure - and if Putin/Russia wins this conflict it really won't stop here, he will keep going and things will carry on getting worse. I wish the newspapers would point this out :/

Also from The Guardian:

The UN nuclear agency chief is en route to Kyiv to discuss creating a security zone around Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, after Putin ordered his government to take it over. “On our way to Kyiv for important meetings,” the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head, Rafael Grossi, wrote on Twitter, saying the need for a protection zone around the site was “more urgent than ever”. Grossi is also expected to visit Moscow in the coming days to discuss the situation at the plant. The IAEA said it had learned of plans to restart one reactor at the plant, where all six reactors have been shut down for weeks.

This is fishy why are they restarting a reactor? If Russia stage a nuclear power plant disaster they have deniability that they don't have with a tactical nuclear weapon.
The kidnapping of Ihor Murashov, the Ukrainian Head of the power plant, was also concerning, I wonder what went information they extracted from him.

Presumably the place is swarming with Russian troops, as it's been annexed by Russia, so they'd presumably stage a retreat before doing anything untoward, but then there are already misiles landing dangerously close to the plant so one side and/or the other is playing with fire, and either way it's not a good time to be getting it up and running again.

Russian President Vladimir Putin expects that the difficulties of winter will increase the weariness of the West from the war in Ukraine, said the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell

Then he's not the master strategist he thinks he is. I think it'll increase anger towards him and any weariness will result in people wanting Ukraine to get more weapons and more support to take the fucker down faster. He is grossly underestimating our character if he thinks winter will benefit him. And once we get through winter we'll all know for certain that he can fuck right off as we will survive without him so he can take his gas and shove it.

@Fladdermus took the words right out of my mouth!

If we cave in because of Russia playing with gas now, we'll always be held to ransom because they know it will work.

Yes. Though the shills and the useful idiots will have a busy time of it.

I think also, as long as Ukraine has the upper hand and it is obvious they can win, more weapons to take the fucker down faster is the rational strategy for ending it. The last few victories have been a game changer in terms of what the best way is to secure an end.

I don't want my electricity to go off. I don't want to sit in a cold dark house eating cold baked beans by candlelight. But, by god, I'd choose that every single time over giving in to a mass murdering bastard.

Well said Fladdermus.