Thread 15. Big Dog has been rehomed but we still need a poop scooper.

[L1ttledrummergirl]

New thread.
Link to old:
www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4624784-big-dog-going-going-not-quite-gone-thread-14?page=10&reply=120289662

Hopefully I've done this so it works.

I’m just trying to find a link to back up what I thought I heard.

my Google-fu isn’t the best!

The bank said it would commence buying up to £5 billion of long-dated gilts (those with a maturity of more than 20 years) on the secondary market from Wednesday until Oct. 14

I got the date wrong, it’s the 14th.

www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/09/29/pension-fund-panic-led-to-bank-of-englands-emergency-intervention.html

Some great calls earlier on with James o Brien.

It was nice that even he said there are things he doesn't understand and he went to the LSE! (Makes me feel less of an ignoramius, even though he does know more than I do, which isn't hard )
I think this may be a lot of the problem too , people can't get their heads around it all and switch off : if I start reading anything to with maths., money , economics, I tend to end up getting very confused, I've never worked in it.
I try to understand it a bit though, but it's not easy.
Anyway, maybe things will settle down a bit
I hope so as it's all our futures at stake here.

Someone in the guardian comments wrote today that the OBR was originally set up to investigate the Labour Party (apparently! ) Not sure how true this is , but funny if it is
I'm not convinced it's totally impartial though.
48 minutes isn't that long to read it all through

Funny as in they are now investigating the conservatives I mean!

Thanks for CNBC article Cornetto. It doesn't sound like things are truly settled (as much as financial markets ever can be).
I'd overlooked that Treasury is on the hook for any losses.

Ridiculous gambling with the country's finances and future - simply to reassure their Tufton Street pals that they are committed to the cause.

"too , people can't get their heads around it all and switch off : if I start reading anything to with maths., money , economics, I tend to end up getting very confused, I've never worked in it.
I try to understand it a bit though, but it's not easy. "

Agree 80's - it feels a bit like trying to make sense of a medical text book!

I do t know if they do.

But some government minister on earlier said something about when PM and Kwarteng meet OBR they'll be able to give them their figures so they can revise their forecast.

Sounded dodgy as fuck to me!

The OBR have stitched us up I bet.
They had a quick look and decided to leave it !
After all, it's only the country they are destroying, nothing to see here.
That beer business man on question time last night spoke sense. The conservative man was just bluster and belligerent.
The Labour lady was a bit aggressive.
The lady on the end was good.
The audience were quietly angry.
It was worth a watch.

"No sense whatever of an imminent U-turn in Downing Street on Budget. One source says: 'We've got an 80-seat majority and we've done nothing with it. We have an opportunity now to push through reforms to things that have been holding Britain back for years. If not now, when?'"

twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1575866749106327552?s=46&t=z7eb8KyeDXxjWjQA0a7MSg

Groves is Political Ed of the Mail.

I think the ERG have finally got the Cabinet they always wanted and they won't let go. When Truss said she was prepared to be unpopular what she meant was they don't care they don't have a mandate, their project is more important.

We're doomed, doomed I tell you 😬

Posted this on the Ukraine thread, will try again

Apparently the OBR can't publish their forecast at the moment, this was an answer to that questiin a twitter thread

Legally, it is not at all easy for the @OBR_UK to do that at this point in the financial year.

If we had got to Christmas, I understand the OBR has legal advice that that would have been acceptable

... but, it's complicated

Frim this thread
twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1575743123111743488?t=B_qmOuX3kljws-cskFbDPw&s=19

Current Labour Lead By Pollster:

YouGov: LAB +33%
Omnisis: LAB +32%
PeoplePolling: LAB +30%
Survation: LAB +21%
Techne: LAB +20%
Deltapoll: LAB +19%
Redfield & Wilton: LAB +17%

(All fieldwork between 27-30th)

Average: 🌹 LAB +24.6%

Time for MPs of both sides of the House to start wielding some Blob power.

We are doomed. Ms Truss is prepared to hang her reputation for the greater good. The ERG are on a high.
The only possible way of getting her gone is if a few rebel MPs start infighting ( unlikely ) kicking up a fuss ( again , unlikely ) or there is a massive scandal involving her or the chancellor, which is also very unlikely too. She isn't a liar as Boris Johnson was.
They will procrastinate now and hope that things settle down with the markets and wheel out a few people to big it all up.

Russ Jones

Second #TheWeekInTory in 4 days cos ... oh god you know why

1. KamiKwarzi Kwarteng supports crypto so much, he’s turned Sterling into a new one called Shitcoin

2. He fulfilled his promise to wipe out Stamp Duty by making it impossible for anyone to get a mortgage anyway

twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1575854197542891520?t=vAFRZjFkQo9N_mjtKXwveA&s=19

Excellent summary from Russ Jones.

God, they are exhausting.

It's the conference this weekend.
I wonder what she will say ?
' I'm delivering for my colleagues in the ERG'
She may as well be truthful and fess up!

NEW: I understand “multiple” Conservative MPs are in talks with Labour in Parliament to defeat elements of the “mini-budget. Particular focus on 45p rate. Focus is on sending a signal to markets.

Only takes around 35 Tories to rebel for defeat.

More on my @lbc show shortly

https://twitter.com/lewisgoodall/status/1575894055636160515?s=46&t=HH_8h1bzdxGhpEC6Ugx9W7Q

I've signed the petition

Over 220,000 signatures and counting

I thought that the Yougov poll was a one off that would not be replicated.
2 more say the same?

Gosh.

NEW: I understand “multiple” Conservative MPs are in talks with Labour in Parliament to defeat elements of the “mini-budget. Particular focus on 45p rate. Focus is on sending a signal to markets

Its almost like a glimmer of some good news. Or maybe a mirage…I do hope that’s true.

But what will happen if the mini budget is defeated? Will we still have to stick with the pair of them but in a slightly diluted form? I don't want a "well it's not great, but not as bad as it could be" government. Enough is enough. This winter was already headlines as by likely terrible. We need better than this!

Will the rebel MPs have a backbone ?
Believe it when I see it!

Jake Berry new Conservative party chair interview with The Times.

Apparently the market's overreacted.

"Truss has promised to do away with so-called Treasury orthodoxy and Berry said his government was dismantling “two decades of an economic consensus that has been around a higher tax burden and low growth”.
Berry suggested some of those baulking at the measures had “in some cases . . . designed that consensus and actually been responsible for its implementation”. He said: “It may not be, in the short term, something that is getting huge support from the commentariat. But I say ignore the commentariat.”
Orthodoxy tends to be built up through experience. The Commentariat presumably includes most economists.

This lot won't stop willingly.

Article goes on to say that the cuts needed to balance the new budget will be to those under Cameron/Osborne OR BIGGER.

I do hope people realise we are being dragged by a runaway train.