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Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

995 replies

MagicFox · 22/09/2022 06:51

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

OP posts:
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53
MissConductUS · 29/09/2022 01:02

Here are some rather grim interviews with Russian soldiers in Ukraine now or who have served there on the topic of the newly mobilized soldiers reaching the front.

'Honestly, they're all going to die' - What Russian soldiers who have already fought in Ukraine think about Putin's mobilization effort

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 29/09/2022 08:17

Some news from The Guardian on the situation in Lyman;

Russian milbloggers (military personnel who write blogs) discussed Ukrainian gains around Lyman with increased concern on Wednesday, suggesting that Russian forces in this area may face imminent defeat, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War.
In its latest briefing, it says:
Several Russian milbloggers and prominent military correspondents claimed that Ukrainian troops advanced west, north, and northeast of Lyman and are working to complete the envelopment of Russian troops in Lyman and along the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in this area. 
Russian mibloggers stated that Ukrainian troops are threatening Russian positions and lines of communication that support the Lyman grouping. The collapse of the Lyman pocket will likely be highly consequential to the Russian grouping in northern Donetsk and western Luhansk oblasts and may allow Ukrainian troops to threaten Russian positions along the western Luhansk Oblast border and in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.
It adds the Russian Ministry of Defense “has not addressed current Russian losses around Lyman or prepared for the collapse of this sector of the frontline, which will likely further reduce already-low Russian morale.”
Russian military authorities previously failed to set sufficient information conditions for Russian losses following the first stages of the Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv Oblast, devastating morale and leading to panic among Russian forces across the Eastern axis. The subsequent ire of the Russian nationalist information space likely played a role in driving the Kremlin to order partial mobilization in the days following Ukraine’s initial sweeping counteroffensive in a haphazard attempt to reinforce Russian lines. 

Future Ukrainian gains around critical areas in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast may drive additional wedges between Russian nationalists and military leadership, and between Russian forces and their superiors.

katem98 · 29/09/2022 08:32

They've found a 4th leak on the Nord Stream Pipeline.

Igotjelly · 29/09/2022 09:05

Ukraine the Latest were assessing the pipeline 'sabotage' on their podcast yesterday afternoon. Sense is that the response from both the EU and NATO has been purposefully non-escalatory. Some members calling for Article 5 to be triggered but Jens Stoltenberg etc. keen not to go that far. Likely responses from NATO seem to be things like naval exercised/NATO naval presence in the area to reassure allies.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 29/09/2022 09:14

Presumably until they can investigate how the pipeline explosions were caused they can't definitively say it was Russia anyway. (And even if it's irrefutable Russia will deny it.)
If it's 'pigs' with explosives fitted to them presumably it has to be Russia as they are the only country with access to the start of the pipeline.

Igotjelly · 29/09/2022 09:17

There does seem to be speculation that whatever has caused these explosions was planted weeks/months even years ago.

Igotjelly · 29/09/2022 09:23

In other news Pentagon officials are reporting that Russia has redeployed up to 80 percent of troops from its borders on the Baltic states and Finland to plug losses in Ukraine.

foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/28/russia-ukraine-war-nato-eastern-flank-military-kaliningrad-baltic-finland/

notimagain · 29/09/2022 09:31

@Ijsbear

*without missiles the high-end weopons are nothing but really heavy paperweights. In a war situation you might be facing a long term campaign and surely this should be planned for?"

I think @MissConductUS has pretty much answered that...couple of extras from me.

Don't forget the politics - maintaining a standing army or even a just standing inventory for a long campaign against the likes of Russia costs lots of pounds/euros/dollars ...I haven't detected much enthusiasm in western Europe ( and I include the UK in that) for high levels of defence spending in recent decades. Up until now (maybe even not now) a party promising high defence spending as part of their manifesto might well struggle to get elected.....

That at least in part was why for a long time the generally accepted/gamed/practised scenario for western Europe was a short war. The politicians had decided on your inventory so the military knew they would probably be fighting with what was in the bunkers at base/magazines/armouries etc on day one , and it almost inevitably culminated with the sort of scenario some here don't like considering.

The manufacturers/sub-contractors usually have to keep product support going for the life of the weapon, and provide some capability going to replace things like lifed components (e.g. batteries, warheads, rocket moters) and rounds fired in training - which often isn't a lot...but AFAIK are rarely required to be able to transition from an almost idling level of production to the sort of levels now.

Ijsbear · 29/09/2022 09:42

@notimagain The permanent problem of finding the balance I suppose, how to divide the budget ... and when you've had peace for decades, war seems more unlikely. I suspect the balance will be a bit different in the coming years.

katem98 · 29/09/2022 09:56

Anyone able to shed some light? I've read this 3x and I just can't seem to think what is implied/ meant by the statement? I've had a really rubbish night with 2 young kids, maybe a coffee is needed Grin

Guardian Live Feed:

"Earlier we reported a brief statement from the Russian foreign ministry that the Nord Stream incident occurred in areas under the control of US intelligence. See 8.15am]
Reuters is now carrying the quote from the foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova. She said:
It happened in the trade and economic zones of Denmark and Sweden. They are Nato-centric countries. They are countries that are completely controlled by the US intelligence services.
Zakharova offered no evidence for the Danish and Swedish governments being “completely controlled by the US intelligence services”. The Nord Stream incident happened in international waters, and not within the territorial waters of Sweden or Denmark. Sweden is not yet a member of Nato."

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 29/09/2022 10:01

katem98 · 29/09/2022 09:56

Anyone able to shed some light? I've read this 3x and I just can't seem to think what is implied/ meant by the statement? I've had a really rubbish night with 2 young kids, maybe a coffee is needed Grin

Guardian Live Feed:

"Earlier we reported a brief statement from the Russian foreign ministry that the Nord Stream incident occurred in areas under the control of US intelligence. See 8.15am]
Reuters is now carrying the quote from the foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova. She said:
It happened in the trade and economic zones of Denmark and Sweden. They are Nato-centric countries. They are countries that are completely controlled by the US intelligence services.
Zakharova offered no evidence for the Danish and Swedish governments being “completely controlled by the US intelligence services”. The Nord Stream incident happened in international waters, and not within the territorial waters of Sweden or Denmark. Sweden is not yet a member of Nato."

Russia is trying to blame NATO for the incident and the writer is
saying ‘nonsense’.

katem98 · 29/09/2022 10:04

Thanks @TheCountessofFitzdotterel! Surely if Russia genuinely thought NATO was behind it they'd be a little more... peeved? I'm assuming Russia would be partly or fully responsible for repairs cost if repairs are possible?

Igotjelly · 29/09/2022 10:05

katem98 · 29/09/2022 10:04

Thanks @TheCountessofFitzdotterel! Surely if Russia genuinely thought NATO was behind it they'd be a little more... peeved? I'm assuming Russia would be partly or fully responsible for repairs cost if repairs are possible?

There's nothing genuine about the Kremlin's remarks. They know fine well it was them, they're just trying to shift blame.

Interestingly I was reading this morning that the Nord Stream incidents have barely been mentioned on state media in Russia.

Igotjelly · 29/09/2022 10:07

Sky News also reporting that the numbers fleeing Russia following mobilisation are likely to far exceed Russia's original invasion force. This tickles me somewhat.

notimagain · 29/09/2022 10:08

Looks like a pretty clear attempt to hint the U.S. caused this, not "NATO".

It's been a fairly common theme on pro-Russian sites and feeds since the explosions happened.

Ijsbear · 29/09/2022 10:09

Time for the surrounding countries to invade Russia! :D (JOKE)

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian military leadership has likely failed to set information conditions for the potential defeat of the Russian grouping in Lyman, despite increasingly concerned discourse among Russian milbloggers regarding the potential for a Ukrainian envelopment of Lyman.

The Kremlin could temporarily postpone announcing the annexation of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory to better prepare the Russian information space and administrative organization, although September 30 remains the most likely date for some kind of annexation announcement.

Russian authorities continue to send newly-mobilized and undertrained recruits to directly reinforce severely degraded remnants of various units, including units that were previously considered to be Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.

Ukrainian forces likely continued to make significant gains around Lyman on September 28, advancing from the north along the Zelena Dolyna-Kolodiazi arc and from the southeast around Yampil.

Ukrainian military officials largely maintained operational silence regarding specific Ukrainian actions in Kherson Oblast on September 28 but stated that Ukrainian troops are continuing positional battles in unspecified locations to consolidate and improve their positions along the Southern Axis.

Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian military recruitment officials are openly contradicting the Kremlin’s publicly-stated guidelines for mobilization to meet quota requirements even as Kremlin propaganda is attempting to change the public perception of partial mobilization.

Russian authorities are beginning to restrict movement of Russian citizens into Russian border regions to cope with hundreds of thousands of Russian men attempting to flee the country.

+++

⚡️The Times: Russia likely bombed Nord Stream pipeline with an underwater drone.

People under Russian occupation cut off from internet, mobile connection
(kyivindependent.com/tech/russia-descends-iron-curtain-over-occupied-land-cuts-people-off-internet)

Ukraine war latest: Kremlin’s proxies in occupied territories ask to join Russia as Ukraine makes progress in Donetsk Oblast (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-kremlins-proxies-in-occupied-territories-ask-to-join-russia-as-ukraine-makes-progress-in-donetsk-oblast)
After claiming a nearly 100% support rate in illegal annexation votes, proxy leaders in Moscow-held territories of Ukraine asked to formally join Russia on Sept. 28.

⚡️Ukraine receives 500 million euros in budget support from EU.

🔎 German intelligence services had been passing on secret information about Russian troops to Ukraine for months
The decision to start transferring intelligence to Ukraine was made in the third month of the war. At the same time, Germany was conducting a legal study on the admissibility of passing this information to Ukraine so as not to become a party to the conflict.

💡The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Romania asks its citizens to leave Russia as soon as possible
Earlier, Bulgaria and the United States made similar appeals.

❕The Ukrainian military in the south have already detected A total of more than 30 Shahed-136 drones. 22 of them were shot down, and only 10 have achieved hits, but not all have been effective — Nataliia Humeniuk, Head of the Joint Coordination Press Centre of the South Defence Force

🇫🇮 The government of Finland will significantly limit the right of Russian citizens to enter the country as tourists or when traveling to other parts of the Schengen area. Tomorrow, it plans to pass a resolution to this effect. Also, later this week, the Finnish authorities are to consider the fence on the border with Russia. It is said in the statement of Finland’s government.

More high personnel losses - it's almost the new normal.

(the ducklings have grown a lot in just 4 days!)

Ukraine Invasion: Part 31
Ukraine Invasion: Part 31
Ukraine Invasion: Part 31
katem98 · 29/09/2022 10:10

Ah ok @notimagain I didn't realise that.

notimagain · 29/09/2022 10:11

Re Nordstream etc...any of our US posters with local insight have views on this:

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/28/tucker-carlson-nord-stream/

Igotjelly · 29/09/2022 10:13

@Ijsbear your ducklings are really coming along, lovely to get daily updates. It really shines some light in all the darkness.

Isn't it well known/accepted that Tucker Carlson is full of absolute bullshit.

notimagain · 29/09/2022 10:19

Isn't it well known/accepted that Tucker Carlson is full of absolute bullshit.

By many (self included) yes, I'm amazed he still gets air time - in fact it's worrying he still gets air time but freedom of speech, First Amendment(?) and all that I guess...

I'm just interested if outside his fan base he gets any traction these days in the States...

ScrollingLeaves · 29/09/2022 10:20

@katem98 - Today 09:56
Anyone able to shed some light? I've read this 3x and I just can't seem to think what is implied/ meant by the statement? I've had a really rubbish night with 2 young kids, maybe a coffee is needed Grin

Guardian Live Feed:
"Earlier we reported a brief statement from the Russian foreign ministry that the Nord Stream incident occurred in areas under the control of US intelligence. See 8.15am]

Reuters is now carrying the quote from the foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova. She said:
It happened in the trade and economic zones of Denmark and Sweden. They are Nato-centric countries. They are countries that are completely controlled by the US intelligence services.

Zakharova offered no evidence for the Danish and Swedish governments being “completely controlled by the US intelligence services”. The Nord Stream incident happened in international waters, and not within the territorial waters of Sweden or Denmark. Sweden is not yet a member of Nato."

I don’t know the answer to your question, but are they hinting the U.S. may be responsible?

This man, Sikorsky, who is a former Polish minister seems to think so.

(He is married to Ann Applebaum the award winning journalist who is pro- UKraine
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne_Applebaum)

www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/former-polish-foreign-minister-thanks-us-for-damaging-nord-stream-pipeline/2696530

Fladdermus · 29/09/2022 10:22

The destruction of the gas pipelines makes more sense after watching C4 news. Neither pipeline were in use so destroying them has no immediate financial loss to Russia. However the Norway to Poland gas pipe crosses the Baltic at the same point the Russian ones. The Norway/Poland pipeline has been put in to reduce EU reliance on Russian gas and was opened ... YESTERDAY!

ScrollingLeaves · 29/09/2022 10:29

I see @notimagain you have discredited the US involvement insinuation re the Nordstrom’s gas-pipeline leaks. I have great respect for your instincts.

Ann Applebaum ( wonderful analyst, and normally pro-UKraine) and her husband must just get along while while having different views on some things!

^notimagain · Today 10:08
Looks like a pretty clear attempt to hint the U.S. caused this, not "NATO".^

It's been a fairly common theme on pro-Russian sites and feeds since the explosions happened.

notimagain · 29/09/2022 10:34

With regard to the Sikorski tweets he appears to have tried to roll back his initial comment, and/or perhaps more directly hint at possible Russian involvement..this is some of his later output:
"All Ukrainian and Baltic sea states have opposed Nordstream's construction for 20 years.
Now $20 billion of scrap metal lies at the bottom of the sea, another cost to Russia of its criminal decision to invade Ukraine.
Someone, @MFA_Russia
, did a special maintenance operation."
twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574867965991854093
I sometimes think there's a case for taking internet/SM access off politicians, or at least build in a long time delay so they can reconsider what they think are witty posts before they actually escape into the world.

notimagain · 29/09/2022 10:35

Link fail:

twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574867965991854093