Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong Me too. Apparently around 250,000 US citizens are in Russia. Can't remember where I read that though.

@Fladdermus

yep SONAR and other acoustic methods…

and just for clarification I’ve read the fishes story in the context of some of these incidents before and it certainly does explain some of the events, I didn’t mean to imply the whole story was an urban myth….

I wonder if this speaks to the mounting civil unrest, alongside the mass draft of those otherwise considered ‘ineligible’

BTW in the context of the story as was told upthread radar is only of use in detecting submarines if they are on the surface, it's AFAIK no use at all use in detecting submerged submarines...submarine detection generally but not always done by acoustic methods.

The only exception to this that I know of is MAD - magnetical anomaly detection. An aircraft with MAD gear on board has to fly over the sub to detect the distortion in the earth's magnetic field made by the mass of steel in the hull of the sub. It's of limited usefulness because the aircraft has to be in position directly above the sub.

The primary acoustic detection network is SOSUS

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOSUS

When I heard about the pipeline explosions, my first thought was to wonder if SOSUS was in the Baltic. The pipelines are about 90m in depth, which is very shallow for submarine operations. There's speculation that the explosions might have been caused by mines dropped at an earlier time from a surface vessel, then detonated on command. A proper investigation will have to wait until the gas fully escapes from the pipeline, which may take a week or two.

DH reckons the explosions were done by pigs. I thought he'd lost the plot but apparently that's the name of the device which is used to clean the inside of the pipes. Easy to attach something to one and send it on its way.

The only exception to this that I know of is MAD - magnetical anomaly detection. An aircraft with MAD gear on board has to fly over the sub to detect the distortion in the earth's magnetic field made by the mass of steel in the hull of the sub. It's of limited usefulness because the aircraft has to be in position directly above the sub.

Pretty much, hasn't got the range as some of the acoustic stuff but it very much has it's uses and it stays in the armoury ( for both fixed wing and helicopters) because it's potentially more stealthy than active SONAR (because you are not pinging any signal out for the sub to detect) and, rumour has it, MAD can perform better than some acoustic systems in high sea states and be very useful at short range when you really want to really really accurately pinpoint the subs position and course..

American sub hunters do carry MAD. I'm told it's usually used after sonobuoys establish a track and general location. I have all sorts of respect for our Naval forces. They operate in a hostile environment all of the time.

@Fladdermus it could have been a pig. If so, it will be easily determined when a close look can be had at the pipelines. If the explosion came from inside the pipeline, the metal around the rupture will be blown outwards.

The Russians have set up a conscription checkpoint by the Finnish border, presumably to get those men that are leaving to avoid being conscripted. Guess they'll have to try somewhere else to leave, especially if visas do get stopped completely. Though some have been arriving at the border and applying for asylum instead.

Is asylum being granted do you know?

They're not eligible for asylum just because they might be conscripted, there has to be more to it as far as I understand it.

⚡️BREAKING: AP says US will give Ukraine 18 more HIMARS.!

Ah, okay

+++

Zelenskyy spoke with UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Discussed the issue of nuclear safety in the context of the threatening situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP.

⚡️BREAKING: AP says US will give Ukraine 18 more HIMARS.

💳According to the Turkish NTV channel, there are no banks left in the country that would serve the Russian payment system Mir. (this is significant as Turkey is a great destination for Russian trade as well as visitors)

‼️Putin's entourage is still hoping to seize the initiative on the battlefield and, after partial mobilization, again move the army to Kharkiv and Odesa. After that, Moscow will agree to peace negotiations in order to retain more of the occupied territories
Bloomberg was told about this in the Kremlin itself.

👍 U.S. Senate backs more than $12 billion in temporary funding for Ukraine – Washington Post
First of all, we are talking about:

• $3 billion for armament;
• $1.5 billion to replenish the stockpiles of US weapons transferred to Ukraine;
• $540 million to increase the production of ammunition;
• $2.8 billion in support of intelligence, special payments to American troops stationed in Europe;
• $4.5 billion for economic assistance to Ukraine.

📌The Taliban signed a temporary agreement with Russia on the supply of gasoline, diesel fuel, gas, and wheat to Afghanistan

🗣Georgian President Salomé Zourabichvili called the so-called "referendums" organized by Russia in the occupied territories of Ukraine "cynical actions"

⚡️The US Embassy in Moscow urged its citizens to urgently leave the country

🗣 Vyacheslav Volodin, Chairman of the Russian State Duma, called Russians who left the country due to mobilization traitors

⚡️ EBRD: Ukraine's economy to contract by almost a third in 2022.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasted a 30% shrinkage in Ukraine's GDP (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/ebrd-ukraines-economy-to-contract-by-almost-a-third-in-2022) in 2022.

⚡️ Apple removes Russian VK, MailRu apps from App Store.

⚡️ Der Tagesspiegel: Damage to Nord Stream gas pipelines likely irreparable after leaks. If the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines are not attended to immediately, salt water will quickly corrode the insides, wrote Tagesspiegel, citing unnamed high-ranking German officials.

Erdogan: 'Referendums' in occupied territories will undermine efforts to resume Ukraine-Russia peace talks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/erdogan-referendums-in-occupied-territories-will-undermine-efforts-to-resume-ukraine-russia-peace-talks)

⚡️Meduza: Kremlin to hold back on illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories after sham referendums.
Independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that the illegal annexation of occupied territories in four Ukrainian regions will be postponed as at the moment it will not have the desired "PR effect" on the Russian population, which has been dissatisfied with the mobilization.

⚡️Intelligence chief: Ukraine, Russia negotiate all-for-all prisoner swap.
According to Defense Ministry's Intelligence Directorate Head Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine continues to negotiate prisoner exchanges, but the process takes a long time

+++

❗️If suspicions that Russia is behind the explosions that led to the leakage of gas from the Nord Stream gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea are confirmed, the consequences for the security of the continent will be very large, writes Politico.

The idea that the EU's undersea energy and communications infrastructure is now a target for Russia will force European armies to prepare for a new, unexpected front in Russia's war against Ukraine. And on this front, they will have to enter into direct confrontation with the Russian fleet.

Excellent!

Indeed. Now for the not-so-good news.

The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine

The situation isn't quite as dire as the headline suggests, but I'm glad the new package includes $540m to expand weapons production.

There was never a shortage of HIMARS vehicles. It's always been more about how to keep them supplied with the specialized M30 and M31 missiles. Think of each HIMARS as a teenage boy - always hungry, never enough in the fridge.

Im sure there are very good reasons but ... why don't governments order enormous amounts of missiles to be made?

without missiles the high-end weopons are nothing but really heavy paperweights. In a war situation you might be facing a long term campaign and surely this should be planned for?

I think part of the problem is that this requires precision engineering, you can’t actually just make them on mass with ease.

Ah.

I did read that when some of the ongoing orders for some high-precision stuff were cancelled in the US, it means that they will probably not ever be able to be made again as the companies would go bust and the highly skilled personnel scatter.

A few points. The companies that make critical systems are not allowed to shut down their production lines completely. They are given contracts to produce a set amount per year and to maintain the ability to ramp up production. But that is not always a quick or easy process, especially with supply chain issues and labor shortages.

Im sure there are very good reasons but ... why don't governments order enormous amounts of missiles to be made?

Because there are hundreds of types of expendable supplies you might need in a war and you can't make enormous amounts of everything. And you don't know what kind of war you might have to fight. If we were in a naval war, there might be a shortage of torpedos, and people would be moaning that we had too many M31 missiles and not enough torpedos. These supplies also have a "best by" date, so they don't last in storage indefinitely.

There is also turnover in the types of weapons you want. Anti-tank guided missiles like the Javelin and the MLAW are brilliant, but they will eventually be replaced by loitering munitions.

If you throw all of your money into supplies, training and staffing levels will suffer, as there's a finite amount of money available. It's a very complex problem.

Thanks for the explanation @MissConductUS

I assume that the high end stuff is indeed highly specialized and there can't be a situation where a large number of the components could be made and then final manufacture would finish them off into the final form eg missile or torpedo (realise that's probably a naive question)

Where's it's possible to share components between systems (think radar heads for air to air missiles), this is done and it helps flexibility. In most cases the components are bespoke to that weapon, and if you've paid for the components, the final assembly is the least expensive part of the process.

Do some of them need the rare-mineral components from China/Russia/Africa ?

Can anyone explain why Putin invaded Ukraine when it has made life so much worse for most Russians? It’s not like Russia is a tiny country that needs more land!

Is it because Putin arrogantly assumed it would be a quick, easy takeover with minimal casualties and now he’s been backed into a corner with no easy exit strategy without losing face?

Yup.

And he can't stand losing.

Yes, in that items like lithium batteries and semiconductors need them, but so does Apple to make iPhones. I can't think of anything like that which is specific to conventional weapons production.

By the way, in 2021 the US DoD spent $141bn to procure weapons and supplies, far more than any other country. Some NATO members looking at you, Germany have absurdly low levels of materials in inventory compared to the size of their militaries.

Germany's military is a mess though (my German partner's considered opinion; they tried to recruit him for some work). Admittedly for good historical reasons.