Ukraine Invasion: Part 31

[MagicFox]

31st thread, welcome all and thanks as usual.

Even for Russia those figures are pushing the boundaries of ‘believable’

Peter Zeihan on NordStream:

Something's damaged the Nord Stream supply lines that transit through the Baltic Sea. Inconvenient in the best of times, sure, but in the current geopolitical climate there are tons of theories and fingers being pointed all around.

Was it the Americans, wanting to prevent the Europeans from crawling back to an abusive natural gas supplier? The Russians themselves (despite already electing to voluntarily halt gas supplies?) Tough love from Baltic Euro states? Ukrainian Saboteurs? A freak accident?

Frankly, none of the these theories hold up. This is one of those moments where as much as we'd like some immediate clarity, we're simply going to have to wait and see...

Meta takes down ‘influence operations’ run by China and Russia
Fake Guardian article among ‘sprawling network’ of bogus sites used to target users in UK, US and EU
www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/sep/27/meta-takes-down-influence-operations-run-by-china-and-russia

The Russian network, the largest the company has disrupted since the war began, targeted audiences across Europe and the UK, and incorporated a “sprawling network” of websites impersonating news websites including the Guardian, according to Meta.

“It presented an unusual combination of sophistication and brute force,” said Meta’s Ben Nimmo and David Agranovich in a blogpost announcing the takedowns. “The spoofed websites and the use of many languages demanded both technical and linguistic investment. The amplification on social media, on the other hand, relied primarily on crude ads and fake accounts.

The influence operation included a perfect copy of a generic Guardian page with a fake story, for an English-speaking audience; and attempts to get a Czech audience to sign online petitions.

One thing that strikes me is that victory for Ukraine will be a victory for the west albeit in a proxy fashion. The success of western training and weaponry surely must act as a signal to the rest of the world and perhaps limit any emerging imperialist ambition of China for instance.

Can we regard the possession of nuclear weaponry as an indicator of super power status? I think what is becoming apparent during this war is that nuclear weaponry is redundant as MAD still stands as the ultimate balwark against such weapon use. In this sense should military capability be purely judged on conventional weaponry?

I think if nuclear weapons were ever to be used in a non WW111 type scenario then the moment has passed. Russia's continual bluffing on this issue has laid bear their impotence and with each successive threat there is less attention paid.

The boiling frog analogy made by a PP seems to exactly sum up the war with carefully calibrated supply of western weaponry where there seems to be no tipping point to provoke a WMD response from Russia and in my opinion the frog will continue to boil.

Images on Russian BBC of recruits sleeping on mattresses on the floor in halls. No beds.

There's allegedly some information that some of the mobilised are already being sent to Ukraine, so without even the meagre 2 weeks training that they did before.

One thing that strikes me is that victory for Ukraine will be a victory for the west albeit in a proxy fashion. The success of western training and weaponry surely must act as a signal to the rest of the world and perhaps limit any emerging imperialist ambition of China for instance.

Another knock-on effect will be to kill the demand for most Russian weapons. Arms exports have been a big hard currency earner for them historically. And the nations that have spent billions on Russian systems will now know that they don't work as advertised.

Would the weopons work better if they are maintained? I have seen some people say that actually some are good (tank turrets excepted) but ofc maintanence has been a huge issue, plus ofc the recruitment and training of professional soldiers has been mostly ... shit. Specially from the East

It's my small-island mentality to be sure, but I just find that weird. Russia is the world's biggest country with half the global population (India/China) on its doorstep. Why the hell wouldn't you prefer trade? It's perfectly positioned!

No criticism directed to the posters on here, I just don't get Putin's mindset.

It is perfectly positioned, especially for trade in rare Earth minerals/natural resources (which is what it wants out of ukraine). It would have been so much smarter to make like China

Had there been any suggestion, certainly I haven’t seen any, of what China’s stance on the annexations that are coming will be? Just thinking about the fact that countries usually more friendly with Russia have said they won’t recognise them.

Would the weopons work better if they are maintained?

Of course. Where they fall short is that most Russian weapons are low tech and difficult to operate. We've seen how decisive systems like HIMARS are. The Russians can't create or mass produce anything similar. They've had terrible problems producing a modern MBT (main battle tank). The tank they're using mostly in Ukraine is the T72, which was designed in 1972.

Russia says its T-90 is one of the best tanks in the world, but it's having trouble in Ukraine

Time for India to be more friendly with the US then, I should think dryly

@Igotjelly well I've just read that they've done some joint naval patrols near Alaska to piss off the US so...

Swedish govt holding a press conference in 10 minutes...

@PerkingFaintly · Today 18:26
Meta takes down ‘influence operations’ run by China and Russia
Fake Guardian article among ‘sprawling network’ of bogus sites used to target users in UK, US and EU
www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/sep/27/meta-takes-down-influence-operations-run-by-china-and-russia

Perking
Sorry to be muddled but is this article that you posted the fake one?

It's fine, really. We have a lot of air force, army and coast guard assets in Alaska. It's also an opportunity to observe their operations and analyze their radar and communications signals. They get a very low altitude flyover from the air force if they don't behave.

@MagicFox Has it started? Any idea what about?...

I would imagine about the damage to the gas pipelines considering Sweden detected the explosions. I do wonder if it’s all a delayed response to Sweden and Finland joining NATO

@Igotjelly I have to admit, that crossed my mind too.

Summary here:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1574837495300329489.html

Thanks for that!

The addition at the end of ‘this is not an attack on Sweden’ is interesting. Clearly meant to be non-escalatory, as much of NATO and the US’ wording has been recently. Very careful, in order to make anything Russia says/threatens look for like nonsense than it would otherwise.

No problem @katem98 :-)

Yes, it's restrained.

Do you think this is a warning shot from Russia? We can attack other pipes etc...

If it is it seems a bit of self-sabotage. They surely lose any leverage over switching on/off pipelines if they damage it to the extent it can’t be used?