Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

Some footage of liberated areas in Kherson now starting to emerge.

Houses destroyed inside and out. And completely looted so there is nothing left at all.

Looks so much like what happened previously and we know what that revealed.

⚡️Southern Command: some Russian soldiers trying to negotiate laying down their arms.
Nataliia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for the southern command of Ukraine's Armed Forces, told Channel 24 on Sept. 12 that Ukrainian troops have advanced tens of kilometers deep into the occupied territories amid the counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast. According to Humeniuk, some Russian soldiers are trying to negotiate with Ukraine on how they can lay down their arms.

⚡️Russia's proxy in occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast says staged 'referendum' postponed indefinitely.

⚡️Poll: 53% of Germans support sanctions against Russia despite sharp increase in energy prices.

Reuters: IMF to discuss emergency funding to countries amid food price shocks due to war.

⚡️Intelligence: Russian soldiers engaged in mass looting while fleeing Kharkiv Oblast.

Southern Command: Ukraine liberates 500 square kilometers in Kherson Oblast.

⚡️Reuters: German Defense Minister rejects requests to supply Ukraine with battle tanks.
German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht rejected the requests on the ground that "no country has delivered Western-built infantry fighting vehicles or main battle tanks so far."
Most of the tanks sent to Ukraine were Soviet-made.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has committed to sending hundreds of M113 armored vehicles to Ukraine.

⚡️Ambassador: Germany to supply 4 IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine.
Germany's Ambassador to Ukraine Anka Feldhusen told NV news outlet that Berlin will provide two systems by the end of 2022 and two more in the early months of 2023.

⚡️Southern Command: Russia lost over 1,800 troops in Ukraine's south in two weeks.
Nataliia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for the southern command of Ukraine's Armed Forces, said Ukraine destroyed 500 armored vehicles, 122 tanks, two airplanes, and two helicopters.

⚡️Interior Minister: Most collaborators fled. Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi said that Ukrainian law enforcement officers are investigating to identify Russian collaborators in the recently liberated parts of Kharkiv Oblast.

⚡️Ukraine's intelligence: Russia recruits people from Far East to fight in Ukraine.

Ukraine have now secured two bridgeheads north of the SeversyDonets river. There is most likely a usable crossing in Oskil too, but it is unclear if the AFU has control there at this point [moving across this river is no small thing]

🪖Russia lost at least 5,800 pieces of military equipment in Ukraine
This figure was identified by the Oryx project, which collects information only from visually verified data.
According to analysts, 3,668 vehicles were destroyed, 136 damaged, 303 abandoned, and 1,693 captured.

💸 The September 11 missile attacks on the thermal power plant cost the Russian Federation about $117 million. At the same time, Ukrainian air defenses shot down missiles worth $97.5 million

⚡️In a day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine ousted the invaders from more than 20 settlements and took them under full control – The General Staff
The defense forces also repelled enemy attacks in the areas of several settlements, the invaders suffered significant losses in the Kherson direction.
According to available information, the 810th Separate Brigade of the Marine Corps (a point of permanent deployment in the city of Sevastopol) lost almost 85% of its personnel. The rest of the servicemen have an extremely low moral and psychological state, they massively refuse to return to the combat zone.

💡Putin is preparing a "new stage" of the war, the oligarchs received the task – Grozev
According to the journalist, the Russian President ordered state corporations and oligarchs to create private military companies to intensify armed aggression against Ukraine and "a new stage of hostilities" in October. [the phrase "good luck with that" comes to mind!]

💪 The Bundestag called for the transfer of Marder combat vehicles and Leopard tanks to Ukraine
“In this new phase of the war, Ukraine needs weapons that will allow it to liberate the occupied territories and keep them under constant control. The West, in particular the US, Germany, France, and Poland, must quickly coordinate their actions here and adapt their supplies to the new situation,” said Michael Roth, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz [Scholz seems to be blocking deliveries against the wishes of some influential people inside his own party. God knows what he's thinking of]

The Pentagon is considering transferring modern Western-style battle tanks to Ukraine and urging other allies to do the same – Süddeutsche Zeitung

🔖 Municipal deputies of 18 (!) regions of Russia signed a petition demanding the resignation of Russian President Putin. The statement said that Putin's actions harm the future of Russia and its citizens. At the time of writing, the petition has been signed by at least 20 municipal deputies

❗️ As a result of the attack on Kharkiv on September 12, the lights went out and the water supply was cut off, the metro is not working – critical infrastructure facilities were taken out of service (@Hillsmakeyoustrong 's soup kitchen is struggling with no water and no electricity :( )

Ukraine have now secured two bridgeheads north of the SeversyDonets river. There is most likely a usable crossing in Oskil too, but it is unclear if the AFU has control there at this point [moving across this river is no small thing]

Reports are that they crossed at Bilohorivka.

You may remember Bilohorivka. This was the place the Russians tried to cross the river multiple times but failed.

@Ijsbear yes I heard today :(

I thought you'd find this interesting, @notimagain . A Russian SU-25 crashed shortly after takeoff in Crimea. Did it simply lose lift by crossing the wake/exhaust of the plane in front of it, which would make it pilot error, or do you think there was equipment failure?

twitter.com/RALee85/status/1569283323507388419

DH says he'd be able to tell the difference from the radiation in around 24 hours. But if it was a high yield detonation he'd know in minutes as the lights would go out across Europe.

Pretty much impossible to tell from a video TBH..

Using the smoke as a cue it appears they set off with the #2 on the correct side (upwind) so wake from the leader shouldn't have been a problem, at least initially.

Something unusual appears to happen at about the 10 second point when #2 appears to climb slightly out of position and the gradual and continuous roll to the left then begins, but why that happened...????

DH says there absolutely won't be another Chernobyl as it's a different type of reactor. Worst case scenario would be a similar event to Fukishima but with less radiation. Each day that passes with the reactor in shutdown makes the worst case scenario less and less of a worry.

The big risk from either tactical nukes or engineered accident is to the people in the immediate vacinity of the reactor. He doesn't believe there's any risk to those of us in western Europe, beyond the fact it's a massive escaltion and who knows where that'll go.

Guardian reporting that deputies in Moscow and St Petersburg are demanding that Putin resigns, and that - says Ukraine - Russia is not sending any more units into the country

@BringBackCoffeeCreams are you in Sweden? Or anyone on here? Wonder what’s happening with the elections and what’ll it mean for the country but also for the war on Ukraine, etc.

It doesn't look like Ukraine is stopping just yet. According to pro-Russian public chats, UA forces crossed Oskol and Siversky Donets rivers in a few places and keep going east... it is unlikely it will be as fast as last week though.

Yes I am. It's looking like the right will get in by the narrowist of margins. I'm not sure how much of a difference it'll make to be honest. The right are more into strength in the military, nato membership etc but it'll be a very fragile coalition as one of the right wing parties is already indicating that they'll block any policy another one tries to introduce.

The right alliance would have a 1 seat majority and they're worried that the liberals (a not so liberal right wing party) will scupper things as they have previously said that they refuse to collaborate with the Swedish democrats (the fascists). The Moderaterna (swedish tories) are happy to collaborate with nazis.

Ok guys, what is this? Solovyov doing some weird renouncing of Putin on tv: twitter.com/timinhonolulu/status/1569438534574161922?s=46&t=tesvpm_CurnEppzMCnAPCg

I thought it must be a joke but it's weirder than that. Wtf?!

Ignore me! It's apparently a fake translation. I don't think people should do that but hey ho

Apologies for what is probably a really stupid question but does the Armenia/Azerbaijan fighting that is being reported as breaking out have any significance for Russia? I looked at a map and they seem to be close to it but not touching- is this something Russia can be expected to interfere in (thus stretching them further)?

ISW Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces are continuing to make impactful gains in Kherson Oblast and are steadily degrading the morale and combat capabilities of Russian forces in this area.

The Russian military command may be suspending the deployment of newly formed units to Ukraine due to recent Russian losses and overall degraded morale.

Russian forces are failing to reinforce the new frontline following Ukrainian gains in eastern Kharkiv Oblast and are actively fleeing the area or redeploying to other axes.

Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian military assets and positions in Kherson Oblast, likely steadily degrading them.

The Ukrainian recapture of Izyum has likely degraded Russian forces’ ability to conduct artillery strikes along the Izyum-Slovyansk highway.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced the restoration of the second reserve power transmission line to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

Ukraine’s sweeping counteroffensive is damaging Russian administrative capabilities and driving Russian departures from occupied parts of Ukraine far behind the line of contact.

+++

🇺🇦🇯🇵 The Japanese government has made changes to supply Ukraine with military aid — Oryx. As a result of changes in arms export procedures, supplies have been limited to non-lethal equipment, but this supply move with military equipment to Ukraine is unprecedented in modern Japanese history.

‼️ At least 1,000 civilians were killed in Izium due to the actions of the Russian military.
But, unfortunately, we believe that even more people suffered as they were not provided with necessary medical care in time. The Russian military destroyed all healthcare facilities in Izium back in March... Access to medicine was limited, the Russian invaders looted and plundered all the pharmacies," said Maksym Strelnyk.

In just two weeks, the Ukrainian IT army paralyzed more than 2,400 Russian online resources, including propaganda media such as Rambler, Gazeta.Ru, and MK

⚡️ The Ukrainian military entered Sviatohirsk in Donbas, the National Guard of Ukraine reported

📍 The Russian military command does not send new units to Ukraine, as the volunteers categorically refuse to serve — General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Russians do not trust the high command. The situation is also affected by information about the actual number of killed and the attitude towards their wounded.

"In particular, Russian hospitals deliberately simplify diagnoses and the nature of combat injuries, no time is given for rehabilitation to quickly return soldiers to the combat zone."

🖇 Since February 24, the United States supplied Ukraine with 140 artillery systems and 660,000 shells and missiles

In addition:

• 41,000 man-portable missile systems to combat armored targets;

• 1.4 thousand man-portable anti-defense systems;

• 15 helicopters;

• 38 radars;

• 10,200 assault rifles and pistols;

• about 63.8 million rounds of small-arms ammunition;

• 18 patrol boats.

🔺 Russian servicemen are engaged in mass looting, fleeing the Kharkiv region

🔎 Russian planes again flew into the United States air defense zone in Alaska
The American side emphasizes that the Russian planes were in international airspace and did not enter U.S. or Canadian airspace.

📣 The EU will not recognize the elections in the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia

🚆 In the six months since the beginning of the war, Ukrzaliznytsia and «Doctors Without Borders» medical railcars have transported 1,800 people

💥 On 6-11 September, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed enemy equipment worth $670 million, much of which was destroyed during a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region — Forbes Ukraine

❗️ A Russian man beat Ukrainian women in France
French police are investigating the beating of two Ukrainian women, allegedly by a Russian, as they turned on and listened to Ukrainian music. The Ukrainian Embassy has taken the case under special control.

⚡️ The front line in the south has advanced by 12 km, the Russian occupiers were ordered to negotiate with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Major General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Dmytro Marchenko, reported this

The United States dropped out of the top ten trading partners of Russia, trade between the countries decreased by about 65%

📍 In the state of the enemy, the level of the moral and psychological state has significantly decreased, the General Staff reports

⚡️ Intelligence: Command of Russia’s Western Military District dismissed after series of mass defeats.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov, who had commanded Russia’s intervention in Syria and was appointed commander of the Western Military District on Aug. 26, was removed from command.

⚡️ Reuters: IAEA head says Ukraine, Russia interested in ‘ceasefire’ at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

⚡️ WSJ: Ukraine to ask US, allies for long-range weapons.
Ukraine will request additional weapons from the U.S. and its allies, including Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATMS), which have a range of over 300 kilometers, reports the Wall Street Journal.

⚡️ Marchenko: Ukraine advances 12 kilometers south, liberates 500 square kilometers.

Ukrainian National Opera ballet dancer Oleksandr Shapoval killed in combat.

⚡️General Staff: Russia has stopped sending new units to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces reported on Sept. 12. that Russia’s military command has suspended sending new units to Ukraine, and that a large number of volunteers are also refusing to fight in Russia’s army

⚡️Bulgaria discusses sending medical packages for 35,000 Ukrainian soldiers.

⚡️Kharkiv Oblast without electricity again after Russian shelling.

[awful pictures of the flattened liberated villages. Ex villages. There is literally nothing left. In other villages houses have been turned into torture-prisons in some cases.
Ukraine is driving trucks of humanitarian aid to places they free, by the fotos

In freed areas there are a lot of dangerous mines, grenades and weopons left plus packs of now-feral dogs, which can be dangerous.]

Russia brokered the ceasefire deal in the war between the two

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_ceasefire_agreement

Ive screenshotted the US response to the hostilities. I get the impresson it's a small but very passionate war with the implication that it might spread

... YOu have to click on the screenie for it to be readable

▪️ Now oligarchs are given orders to form private military companies. This means Putin is not even counting on the Armed Forces. The money will not come from the state budget but from the oligarch’s pockets, creating an even more dangerous situation.

... Russian's turning fecking feudal like in the 1300's in the West!

It's always been feudal though. It's just more obvious now.

This clip of Russian state media commentators is very telling. One Boris Nadezhdin is very brave and I hope he is not arrested for his comments. Others look incredibly nervous.

twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1569085348176592898?s=46&t=jFk8UbtNQzf1X015-s8bcg

I wouldn't pin too much hopes on people suddenly being very open about stuff. Kremlin pays its propagandists to say certain things. So if they want to stir the narrative towards blaming the military commandment, that's what everyone will start saying.

Having said that, there will be some patriotic "experts" who aren't paid by Kremlin, who will feel that Kremlin is getting weaker, so they can say more than they could before, although they still need to censor themselves.

Sure but the public recognition of the fact that Ukrainian civilians don't welcome the Russian army and that they Ukraine is a strong force is a big change in narrative,

From the Guardian:

Ukraine: Russian intelligence officers and military commanders flee Crimea, southern Ukraine

In the Russian-occupied regions of the Crimea and southern Ukraine, Russian proxies, intelligence officers and military commanders have begun to evacuate and “urgently resettle their families” back into Russian territory, the defence intelligence of Ukraine’s military of defence said.

Defence intelligence officials noted that Russian nationals were “secretly trying to sell their homes and to urgently evacuate their relatives from the peninsula”.

I'd love to see not only the Russians pushed out of recently occupied areas but also Crimea back under Ukrainian rule, it's difficult not to get your hopes up with the advances being made by the UAF, but there's always a nagging inner voice that Putin on the ropes is when he's at his most dangerous. He's a bitter, twisted little man who obviously has no regard for human life.