Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

I think I have spotted today’s visitor starting a new thread under another name but since there’s a TAAT rule I won’t say anything more.

I haven't been posting much as it's been busy but have been keeping up with the news outside the thread.

They tend to pop up when something kicks off, my new hobby is Russian shill spotting, I've seen a few suspect posts re: the Zelenska interview trying to stir up division as ever. Good on you for calling them out.

You're right.

I've shared the link, but not feeding any more so have moved on and won't be humouring then with a response.

I came across something on Twitter today, an amalgamated screenshot of posts which supports what you say. It's the same sentence re-typed out by pro-Russians.

Nice find!

Many may be actual bots: automated accounts.

Some could be hybrid accounts with some automated activity and some human intervention to add flavour and depth.

Russia has been reduced to buying arms and ammunition from North Korea. How humiliating.

globenewsbulletin.com/international/russia-buying-weapons-from-north-korea-to-fight-ukraine-u-s-intelligence/

Knowing the North Koreans, they are likely insisting on payment in full before shipment. The goods will then be lost in transit.

Really? I don't know whether to hope that the Russians send trucks and the N Koreans have to cough up, or whether they don't and the resulting screaming match between the two countries can be heard from Tanzania :D

ISW Key Takeaways

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-6
The report is worth reading in full for its expanded comments on the IAEA. It also notes that Russian forces seems to have ~planned~ a withdrawal a couple of weeks ago near Bayrak, by demolishing a bridge over the big river there to make it harder for Ukrainian forces to cross (but they likely have a bridgehead anyway there from reports)

The International Atomic Energy Agency report released on September 6 describes Russian activities that increase the likelihood of a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant while decreasing the ability of the plant’s personnel to respond to such an accident effectively.

Ukrainian forces have launched likely opportunistic counterattacks in southern Kharkiv Oblast and retaken several settlements. Russian redeployments of forces from this area to defend against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson likely prompted and facilitated these counterattacks.

Ukrainian forces are continuing an operational-level interdiction campaign and striking Russian logistics nodes, transportation assets, manpower and equipment concentrations, and control points across Kherson Oblast.

Russian and Ukrainian sources discussed kinetic activity northwest of Kherson City and in western Kherson Oblast along the Inhulets River.

Russian forces made incremental gains south of Bakhmut and continued ground attacks north, northwest, and southwest of Donetsk City.

Russian authorities continue setting conditions to Russify Ukrainians living in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.

+++

⚡️Ukraine to receive counter-battery radar, 5 Gepards guns from Germany.
The German government announced on Sept. 6 that it provided one counter-battery radar COBRA and five Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine. COBRA is an artillery reconnaissance system capable of detecting enemy artillery at extremely long ranges. (just 1 seems woefully low, specially in the context of Scholz blocking considerable arms delivery as was reported yesterday)

⚡️Al Jazeera: Analysts say partisan activity increases in temporarily-occupied southern Ukraine with "a high level of collaboration between the Ukrainian military and partisans," who have provided Ukraine's forces with information about Russian troops and the situation in the occupied territories. According to experts, the rebels are mostly focused on three basic tasks: destroying the Russian army’s weapons and supply lines, passing information to the Ukrainian military and demoralizing the occupying forces.

⚡️Ukrainian police block 48 illegal border crossing routes.
Ukrainian officers have identified individuals involved with the fabrication of immigration documents, illegal border crossing, and other similar services for which they were charging between one to $20,000. In the past six months, 48 illegal border crossings were halted by Ukrainian authorities with most taking place in Chernivtsi, Lviv, and Zakarpattia oblasts.

⚡️Latvia supports gradual introduction of mandatory military service.
In 2007, Latvia abolished compulsory military service but will return it in 2023 for males 18-27 years old amid security concerns caused by Russia's war against Ukraine. Two conscriptions are planned for next year. For the first draft in January, the Ministry of Defense will invite young people to apply for military training on a voluntary basis. [I wonder if we will see more E European countries taking this step]

⚡️Politico: France supports price cap plan on Russian gas supply put forth by Brussels.
[there is no price cap in the NL. IN July the energy prices were the highest in Europe
www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/08/gas-prices-keep-setting-new-records-nl-tops-european-league-table/

When I got the bill this month, it was a very nasty shock and we are careful with electricity!]

[ Album ]
💧 The most beautiful protected lakes of academician Zaitsev dried up in the Odesa region
According to Ivan Rusev, ecologist of the Tuzlovsky Limany Reserve, one of the reasons for the drying up of lakes and estuaries is military operations, which do not allow resuming water exchange with the Black Sea. [The environmental losses of this war don't bear thinking about]

🌾 Zelensky: Ukraine will transfer 28,600 tons of wheat to Somalia

❗️The Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine: Russian invaders intensify repressions against residents of the Zaporizhzhia region

🏚 Zelensky: More than $1 trillion is needed to rebuild Ukraine

[Uk military assessment not yet released]

Another huge personnel loss for Ru.
1 plane, 1 helicopter and a fair chunk of military vehicles.
These personnel losses are just not sustainable

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/17/i-dont-see-justice-in-this-war-russian-soldier-exposes-rot-at-core-of-ukraine-invasion

finally here

Xi and Putin to meet next week www.politico.eu/article/xi-jinping-china-meet-vladimir-putin-russia-first-trip-since-covid/

Tp my untrained eye, Ukrainian advances across a 500 km frontline seems like a massively wide geographical area right across from the East to the South. The military operations would be fiendishly hard to plan and co-ordinate. Russia tried to do that and failed at the start of the war. So Ukraine is now doing what Russia failed to do and in adopting this strategy also striking at Russia's weakness.

Ambitious strategy by Ukraine. They are good at communications, collaboration, agility and innovation (corporate buzz words!). I have faith and hope they can pull it off.

Not good

We can always hope that they disagree with each other.

I understand your concern, but it may be that the Russians are too short on manpower, equipment and command and control to defend much of the territory on their side of the front. Here's a pretty good review of the tactical situation. If correct, the Russians are also in trouble in the Donbas.

Ukraine update: Russian 'hard points' are falling in Kherson, Kharkiv, and near Izyum

Yes, let's hope. Obviously in a utopian world Xi would tell Putin to smell the coffee and stop it. But I guess the big fish is more likely to net the minnow for its own benefit down the line

I would be SO embarrassed if I was Putin showing up to any meeting with any world leader 🥴

[I wonder if we will see more E European countries taking this step]
I bet we will, it's the wise move right now. It was call up day in my town recently, the war seems to have made the young men even more keen on doing their service judging by the interviews of them in the local paper.

If accurate, and the Twitterati says themselves that it looks genuine but cannot be guarenteed, Russia acknowledges within the Kremlin that 48k have died, excluding MIA, WIA and separatists.

@OwlsDance is the translation reasonably accurate?

twitter.com/HeliosRunner is the poster and they seem extremely well informed and perceptive, even though some of their posts are French which is fine for @notimagain but not for some of us =)

@Ijsbear · Today 08:03
Thank you very much for your key takeaways.

Ukrainian police block 48 illegal border crossing routes.
Ukrainian officers have identified individuals involved with the fabrication of immigration documents, illegal border crossing, and other similar services for which they were charging between one to $20,000. In the past six months, 48 illegal border crossings were halted by Ukrainian authorities with most taking place in Chernivtsi, Lviv, and Zakarpattia oblasts.

Do you know who is crossing where illegally, and why? For example is it Ukrainians getting out of Ukraine who otherwise would need to fight?

Thank you for the Guardian article about Zov by Filatyev. They warn they cannot corroborate everything he has said but it somehow rings true doesn’t it?

No, I'm afraid not. I pass info on with the hope that the underlying trends of the war will come clear, but I don't know where the info comes from unless the original Telegram channel quotes it. However Kyiv Independent seems to research their stuff well and they are not dogs who won't bite the hand; they report flaws in the Ukrainian society and they have quite savagely revealed some problems in the Foreign Legion.

So I tend to trust them, as I do the Ukrainian death figures of Russians.

But I think that a lot of Ukrainian men are trying to get out. Ukraine are pretty damn strict on this, though not impermeable.

I meant to correct this yesterday, and forgot. I meant Moscow.

Yes, it is. Bloody hell! That's higher than any estimates, and pretty close to Ukraine figures.

But I think that a lot of Ukrainian men are trying to get out I read somewhere, can't remember where and so couldn't say whether verified or not (an important point) that both men and women are being forced to fight now. As I say, I am not sure about this but I do assume also that those not wanting to fight are trying to get out too. It would be interesting to know what constitutes "illegal" here in terms of people trying to leave.

I am not a shill or a troll and I am just going to ignore those comments. This is MN and so you should be playing by MN rules.

Sorry, I meant it may not be just people who are at risk of being drafted who are trying to leave.