Which businesses are going to go under?

[Nobledeedsandhotbaths]

I've been thinking about the upcoming crisis and wondering which 'non-essential' businesses are likely to lose most custom once things begin to bite.

Things like:
Tattoo artists
Nail technicians
Children's party entertainers
Just for a few examples.

There are many others I would class as non-essential that will potentially be ok because their client base is the wealthy, who will be less affected by what is going to happen.

What are other people's predictions for businesses that may struggle?

I’ve got some good friends who run an interior design business. That’s definitely a rather frivolous ‘add on’ to life, but their work is for seriously wealthy clients on big big houses.

They lost 3 huge jobs in the space of a month after Putin invaded Ukraine.

@notanoccultexpert would you please pm me your website address?

On a positive note - Bearing in mind that lots of people read these threads, maybe we should all try and adopt a local independent business over the next year to support?

That could make a difference to a lot of business owners.

The op being slated for for starting this thread, I have to disagree with, the fact it’s being talked about can only help us by raising some awareness.

It wasn't the topic it was the flippancy.

This is a very judgemental comment Limbo, I know plenty of people with lots of tattoos in high earning jobs with plenty of savings/investments to keep them going.

There is a big argument for spreading your wealth around if you can afford it by continuing to employ trades or using restaurants etc

Done - hopefully :/ Never sent a PM before so I hope you got it!

To a PP with a yoga studio - wait and see. My teachers studio thrived during the 2008 recession, people really needed it to keep themselves focused / calm / strong for the challenges of life. Fingers crossed you are ok.

I think construction and hairdressing will be fine - nails too. I think takeaways, restaurants and bars will suffer, and lots of businesses selling non - essential goods and services.

I can’t see the point in this post, OP.
It’s just going to create even more anxiety.

A new independant coffee shop has just opened near me, and I was thinking the other day how it feels like terrible timing for this sort of business. Surely takeaway coffees will be one of the first luxuries people drop?

I do catsitting to make some extra income which I expect to take a dive, with less people being able to afford to travel.

Take aways/cake and sandwich shops, pubs, restaurants. We just came back from a UK holiday. We were shocked by all 3 local pubs, they were hardly open. One told us that since covid, hardly anyone has been using the pubs, so they've reduced days and hours, and reduced staff to compensate. We couldn't find any open for lunch, so bought some pot noodles and cookies from the shop! I also think hairdressers will increase their prices, to include their electricity. People will go less regularly.

Another thing with restaurants that the public don’t see is the VAT.
Buying the stock in, uncooked. There is no VAT applied.
But as soon as we supply that food to consume then it is subject to VAT.
Restaurants have lost 20% straight away without doing anything, if they were doing just ok before the energy crisis, then this is tipping them to go under.

Unfortunately, there is going to be an increase in people giving up their pets as they can't afford them.

this ^
our local, very lovely animal charity is already struggling with vets bills and also finding enough experienced foster homes. They currently have a waiting list of people to take animals ready to be rehomed but struggling with the sheer numbers of animals that need attention before they can go to new homes.
I’m hoping every puppy farm and back street kitten breeder goes bust! (Probably wishful thinking).

I’m also concerned about small, high welfare meat producers. I can see more people picking up cheap imported meat from the supermarket than taking the time and paying the extra to source local high welfare meat.

Beauty salons will do ok. Beauty salons in economically devastated Afghanistan do alright. You're all too focused on demand rather than remembering the core problem: expensive energy. Hospitality that relies on fixed income markets will be in trouble (think of a cafe that mostly serves OAPs). But student- or Yuppy oriented hospitality, business hospitality, will survive ok.

Businesses that rely on cheap energy are in trouble. Saunas, breweries, manufacturing (that includes food-processing). Food processing often relies on cheap energy to create safe food sold at low prices. So then we'll get a food production crisis, especially when supermarkets have locked in low prices (they purchase from suppliers). Can't make it up... Swimming pools are already facing shortage of safety chemicals, and may need to reduce their opening hours so they can heat the building less.

I've decided to start cutting mine and DDs hair as when I went to book us in for a trim the prices everywhere near us were £57 each for a cut and blow dry! Dd is 17 so not child prices anymore. Ive also stopped getting highlights as that's another £80. Hello greys!

I hope sainsburys plummets - it has taken the piss for years, tesco goods at M&S prices imo.
I switched to aldi years ago, and the odd thing I have to get from sainsburys makes me wince.

The pets thing is already an issue. We foster dogs and they are inundated and having to turn dogs away due to a lack of foster homes. They have saved 2 dogs this month alone who were taken to vets to be put to sleep as they couldn't pay the vets bills anymore. There will be many more like this that won't be saved.

Small bakers are packing up, left, right & centre. Ovens cost one, ingredient costs have rocketed & it was thin margins already.

Yes, this. It's not necessarily to do with whether a service is essential or not. It will be things like margins and energy costs. Anyone with higher energy costs and narrow margins will be at risk. We could lose 'essential' services.

Locally to me someone opened up a gift shop last year. Predictably it's now closing. Prime high street location, so expensive rents, but little tourist footfall and selling stuff it's easy to cut back on. I feel sorry for the owner, but I also think it was an ill-advised business venture.

There was a bloke on Radio 4 yesterday trying to sell shops closing as a good thing, saying that the ones that would close were the less efficient/ less competitive shops.

No mention at all of the loss of people's livelihoods.

No idea who he was but my money's on Tory politician. Who else would be so fucking disingenuous and heartless?

Full employment is expected until quarter 3 of 2025. Unemployment is currently at 3% which is actually unsustainable for a capitalist society we need it to run it about 5% to basically terrify people into going to work.

construction had so many projects put on hold over Covid that they will keep running just to catch up with what’s already committed to for the next few years. Same with IT.

those two industries alone GDP can support many people as individuals but the residual effect is itll support many other service industries to.

Where I live a very good fish and chip shop closed due to energy increases to cook the food plus fish prices had gone up too. Fish and chips increased from £10.50 to £14.90 before it closed. They did not have many customers left who could afford to buy it.

In recessions the self employed often find it hard. Cleaners, hairdressers, nail bars, painters and decorators, plumbers, dog walkers, gardeners, cake makers, babysitters, coffee shops, takeaways, restaurants.

I think many who think their job is safe, is at risk of losing their job. I am economising on everything I can now. Tightening our belts as my parents would have said. I think it will be a bumpy ride for many.

I’ve noticed that a number of independent cafes and shops near me are closed now on Mondays. My favourite cafe is closed Monday and Tuesday. This means they can reduce staff numbers and bills.

Our local tube station already had an independent coffee shop next to it, a chain coffee shop opposite, and another chain coffee shop two shops down from it. A unit opened the other side of it. It’s another independent coffee shop! Utter madness. This is a tube station in a residential area, not a busy high street. Any customers wanting to support the independent ones will go to the one that’s been there years where the owner knows everyone and has built a solid customer base. Others will prefer the chains. There are no more customers. So I expect that to close relatively quickly. But I don’t understand why they thought it was a solid business idea.

I do think the chain coffee shops will be ok, as someone said upthread, they have more cash to keep going. Takeaways will be hit hard I think. It was one of the first things I cut back on. The price has already shot up at our local chippy, and will likely increase further making it a rare treat. But then how will they survive? Pubs were dying anyway. When I moved here there were 4 pubs in my high street, now there’s one, Wetherspoons.

Where I live there are 7 different dog groomers. I use 1 for my 2 girls and have to book a month on advance. Prices have gone up but my girls need their hair clipped. I am leaving it 12 weeks instead of 8 but I can't do it myself.