Which businesses are going to go under?

[Nobledeedsandhotbaths]

I've been thinking about the upcoming crisis and wondering which 'non-essential' businesses are likely to lose most custom once things begin to bite.

Things like:
Tattoo artists
Nail technicians
Children's party entertainers
Just for a few examples.

There are many others I would class as non-essential that will potentially be ok because their client base is the wealthy, who will be less affected by what is going to happen.

What are other people's predictions for businesses that may struggle?

Construction projects which have government backing will be fine. So schools, rail, power, roads, housing association houses etc will all go ahead partly as a way of keeping the economy going.

But commercial offices, factory's, warehouses, shops, gyms, all slow down. If a business is worried about their income / costs the last thing they want to do is get involved in a big capital spend.

Domestic houses, people become worried about income & heating costs they don't want to extend existing house or size up that's more space to heat and a bigger mortgage too.

Nobody wants to take on a big loan to pay for stuff either. And yes is across the board with construction. It starts with the architects seeing less enquiries and takes time for that to flow through. Things that are on site now probably entered the architects door 8-9 months ago.

Bakers, and fast food shops, who can't afford the rising cost of fuel and ingredients.

Small local petrol stations

Niche "green" energy supply companies (nobody's going to pay MORE for green)

Garden centres ( Plant prices are already rocketing; the import of ornamental garden plants will turn them into luxury non- essentials. They won't afford to heat premises to support tender houseplants.

Pubs and bars (already happening). Social changes, and alcohol/getting drunk as entertainment will be too expensive for most.

Dog groomers and cake makers presumably have higher input costs if they had a separate place of work. Working from home will reduce some costs but electric is still an arm and a leg.
Energy intensive work will have to recoup costs or stop.

Things are going to cost more which impacts on everything and everyone except perhaps the ultra rich.

We will find a way.

I think local pubs being given money to offer warm rooms would be great for ensuring they're still there after this recession.
Many of them have kitchens where they could provide food too.

We have as a society sat on the pinnacle of luxury that even our grandparents couldn't have dreamed up. Turning the shine down won't kill anyone but the reality of old and sick being cold and associated illness is a real concern.

I suspect family meals will be a good idea. A couple of households coming together for a meal a couple of times a week will be a positive way to deal with some of the increased costs.

Brian Cox has just saying this space program on bbc2 American spends more on pet grooming than nuclear fusion research.

Maybe our priorities have been really wrong. Developing clean green safe energy would be a great goal for any government.

I'll keep buying from the local deli (although the prices are now quite eye watering tbh) and the local eco/refill place.
I also buy cards/gifts from local shops where I can.
But my days of take away coffees and meals out "just because" are over I'm afraid.

an architect I know is touting for business

I agree about nail and hair salons. The beauty salon I go to has just taken on new staff as they are so busy and getting busier. The hairdressers around the corner has got a new owner and been refurbished and is now really busy. Good luck to both of them as they are independent businesses.

Just as another point: My son (19) did a roaring trade last summer before he started university doing odd jobs/ garden work/painting fences etc
He made £250 one week!
Nothing this year. Nada. People can't afford it 🤷‍♀️

I think gyms might be OK - the cost per month can be high but especially for single people, they’re a social activity, you’re not using your own electricity and gas and you can shower as part of it. Plus some gyms even have places to sit and use the WiFi etc. If you went several times a week I think you could end up saving money and not be sitting at home cold.

Similarly I think cheaper pubs like Wetherspoons could see a good amount of use. In the old days, pubs were just one room downstairs in someone’s house essentially. The people from the local streets would come for a couple of drinks but more importantly to sit by a fire and enjoy some company and good cheer. If you’re faced with paying £2/3 an hour to run your heating (as I worked out mine to be in October), buying a couple of cheap pints or coffees at Wetherspoons and making them last the evening is a much more sociable way to spend the same amount of money, especially if there’s a few of you doing the same thing.

I already cut my own hair and do my own nails.
I think lots will follow suit, it's easy once you find a decent tutorial

Pedigree dog breeders/puppy farms. Buying a pedigree dog (and feeding and paying the vet bill) will make make their product unaffordable.

Pet shops selling exotics which require heated accommodation.

The price of animal feed will spell death to many domestic pets (already happening; rescue shelters overwhelmed and facing the same cost problem).

I’ll cut down on other stuff before I cancel my membership to my hot yoga studio. It’s the one thing that’s helped me mentally and physically, plus I really the company and the teachers. I really hope it keeps going as it’s energy bills will be horrific to maintain heated studios.

My mother had this kind of view.

'the only thing thats garanteed is death and taxes... and that we all need to eat' so she went into the food industry (not resteraunts but food science working with outbreaks of contamination).

She always tried to instill these thought process in us, she is very disappointed that neither me nor any of my siblings went into sewerage management as she thought since 'everybody poops' it was a solid job choice that wouldnt be hit by recession.

I studied medicine and my siblings are engineers (one electrical, one mechanical) and yet we are still somehow a disappointment to her lol.

construction had so many projects put on hold over Covid that they will keep running just to catch up with what’s already committed to for the next few years. Same with IT.

I don’t know enough about construction but it is definitely not the case with IT. DH works in IT and at any time of uncertainty (Brexit, Covid, now this) then the big change projects are put on hold. Companies keep going with what they’ve got rather than spend millions rolling something new out. Some have had to invest in infrastructure around working from home, but large technology projects are cut when companies are struggling just like everything else.

Aren't you a delight?

Not all doom and gloom then.

The BMI of the country might start to fall

Spot on. Our village sandwich/pie shop has already closed. I'm an accountant and they were one of my clients (had been for years). Pre covid, they were doing "OK", making a wage for themselves and employing 3 staff. Covid wiped out their reserves and they were left hanging by a thread, only surviving due to loans taken out to cover costs during lockdowns and restrictions.

But trade returned and their turnover was back to pre-covid levels by the end of last year. Trouble is that ingredients pricing has simply not stopped rising, sugar, flour, milk, everything bought in bulk. VAT returning to 20% after the temporary covid reduction also hit them hard as it went back to normal far too soon before they'd really recovered! They've raised prices, bit by bit over the last 12 months to the point where customers started making comments and they noticed some customers stopped coming in (local village shop so they know their customers). So they were only breaking even.

The past 2 or 3 months' of electric and gas bills have ruined them - they made losses over Summer. I spent hours with them going over their accounts, preparing forecasts and various "what if" scenarios. On current prices of ingredients and fuel, even if they doubled their prices and didn't lose any customers, they'd still be loss making. It was clear it's hopeless, so closure was the only viable option. Now the village has another empty shop and 5 people unemployed!

Construction is with IT people will maintain what they have rather than invest in anything new.

I think some non-dog people think that dog groomers are like beauty salons for dogs, ie, inessential. While it’s true that some near me offer silly things like ‘facials’ for dogs, in fact for medium or long haired dogs grooming is a welfare issue. Matted coats cause pain and risk parasites. Very few of us have the skills to keep those dogs’ coats in good condition, and clippers can damage the coats so scissor cutting is needed. I had a go at cutting my dog’s coat in lockdown and it wasn’t a success! Also, wielding sharp objects like scissors at a wriggly dog is dangerous for the dog if you don’t know what you’re doing. My dog will continue to need professional grooming at least 3-4 times a year and I’d prioritise that well over my own haircuts.

My partner actually queried why I didn't go to the salon etc (No reflection on my appearance 🤣)
I told him how much a bog standard ladies cut is, from a bog standard salon, and a bog standard stylist. He was horrified.
I think they priced themselves out long ago for a lot of people

Saw in our local news about a cafe which closes today. Their usual electric bill had risen from 1.2k to 4k and they just couldn't continue to operate.

I was pondering this and was going to start a thread from the other perspective ie for you as a family, what would be the first thing to ‘go’ in terms of non essential spending. We’ve had to cut back more as I’m on mat leave as well as cost of living but we are fortunate to be fairly comfortable. For us it’s been meals out and takeaways first (we haven’t really missed this and won’t go back to the amount we spent on this before), then clothes for me and the kids. Realised I bought a lot of clothes I don’t wear often so have challenged myself to buy no clothes and wear the ones I have. Same for kids…only get new when they really need it and buy second hand. No impulse buys and keep toys to Christmas and birthdays. Things like hair cuts I haven’t actually cut down on as see them as essential. Also one of the last things to go would be kids hobbies ie dance lessons and that kind of thing, although I did cancel very expensive swimming lessons in favour of taking DD to local council run pool. So judging by this I would expect restaurants, cafes, pubs and small independent clothes shops to maybe suffer but no hair salons etc?

I didn’t mean that people would stop their gym / health club / hot yoga membership ,
though I’m sure some will have to
However , will the rise in running costs make it worth the establishment keeping open ?
The cost of chlorine ( for swimming pools ) has gone up tremendously already

I don’t know people that spend money on the salon / tattoos / pub will continue to do so they will find the money because it’s what they enjoy, it may just not be as often .
me personally I’ll keep going to the salon it’s one of my few pleasures plus my fitness classes , I do run too which is free .
I think for me I’ll have to stop buying clothes I don’t need just because they are on sale , I’m a sucker for 25% off .

You are bang on the money here, we've had a good couple of years and managed to save some money but this winter and next year will be difficult

My main line of work is working for a gas safe engineer. I think we'll see an increase in work this autumn as we're encouraging people to get boilers serviced to make sure they're running efficiently. We've cut our usual price to help people do this and prepare now for the colder weather.

My sideline for a bit of extra spending money is evening babysitting. There's really not a lot of that going on right now. I stopped during Covid and was just starting to build up my client base again but I'm not getting much business at all now. That's a shame as I could really do with some extra.