Which businesses are going to go under?

[Nobledeedsandhotbaths]

I've been thinking about the upcoming crisis and wondering which 'non-essential' businesses are likely to lose most custom once things begin to bite.

Things like:
Tattoo artists
Nail technicians
Children's party entertainers
Just for a few examples.

There are many others I would class as non-essential that will potentially be ok because their client base is the wealthy, who will be less affected by what is going to happen.

What are other people's predictions for businesses that may struggle?

But if we all choose heating over nails that'll bugger the nail salon . I won't be choosing nails over giving my family a warm home .

I’m not sure the likes of Starbucks and Costa will go under. They’re massive multi nationals who probably have enough savings to whether a storm. Plus there’s likely to be enough people who can still afford crazily priced drinks. Maybe they will shut some branches and only have six per town rather than ten!

I find nail bars buck the trend and are always rammed. I went for a Hopi ear candle session yesterday and the therapist said it was quiet when I asked her She said people care more how they look but less how they feel within. Interesting isn't it what priorities the public seems to have. I have s topped visiting the monthly beautician but would still value my health. Clearly I am an exception!

It's for this very reason that we intend to continue to support our normal local businesses as much as possible, we are far more fortunate than many because our mortgage finishes in November! High income too, so we will be donating the £400 to the energy help scheme here in town, supporting the food bank and sticking to our normal barbers, hairdresser (I only go every 6 months), pub routine and meals out to help those businesses, they need the custom, we can afford it

Husband is decorator and still getting lots of work through. We were concerned as decorating is something you can try yourself, or postpone - not a necessity. But I think the real test hasn’t begun yet. We will see the consequences in a couple of months, especially with Christmas too. I think though that once the Tory leadership is sorted, the government will do something to help.

For the PP who said Waitrose was quiet, ours was busy yesterday. We have a Lidl being built in the next town, I don't know if that will affect things. Cheaper food but petrol to get there.

@hattie43 the problem is, commercial business don’t have that luxury.
Everything we use is compulsory, and when the cost of energy has increased by 350% (and probably more now) there’s nothing we can really do to offset that.

The op being slated for for starting this thread, I have to disagree with, the fact it’s being talked about can only help us by raising some awareness.

And awareness for businesses, especially small independents, really isn’t enough at the moment.
As evidenced above with a pp claiming it’s just bad management.
I read the same yesterday, a local restaurant is having to shut after 12 years trading due to the soaring costs. That restaurant is consistently busy - but they had people commenting that it’s poorly managed.
Jo public are really unaware of just how much these energy costs are going to affect business.
And when taxes are raised to cover the cost of energy used within the NHS, everyone will grumble and moan because it’s unfair.

I also think retired people, those that own their own homes and have savings, will just carry on as normal, as will young people who live at home with their parents. It will be those with young children, where they might have lots of outgoings such as childcare, who will struggle the most.

Those that are non niche and have an essential reliance on heating or electricity.

Definitely not the case for the construction sector my OH works in - the pandemic and aftermath have seen his corporate post record numbers.... and still climbing despite them stopping their imports of Russian timber products.

Projects in education, healthcare, corporate commercial and high-end residential are gathering pace and the demand for product is keeping prices high. Sustainable construction is growing, with the demand for ecologically-sound products (structural cross-laminated timber, for example) gaining ground against concrete and steel.

In OH's sector, at least, construction there's no sign of a slow-down - but his business doesn't supply direct to domestic residential end users - it's all through merchants, distributors and trades.

A plumbing place we spoke to, said business has been slower since April
As a for instance, people not changing their bathrooms.

@flowerycurtain poultry coats are going up in price? What about jumpers? 😁

www.etsy.com/uk/listing/569753707/chicken-jumper-battery-hen?click_key=1d5fb187f8f466c982f892d8e7102c5219aae80c%3A569753707&click_sum=5fb0dc6f&ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=clothes+for+chickens&ref=sr_gallery-1-4&frs=1&cns=1

accordinf to St James Place (who have advertised on MN offering “jobs”) - there are 12 million people in the UK with between £50k and £5million in cash assets. So I guess you need to be selling stuff THOSE people want.

Anywhere that operates things like 'soft-play' for kids. They'll be gone in 3 months

I highly doubt it. There is very little to entertain kids in the winter and softplay can reduce heating expenditure because children are running around and often get too hot anyway.

Hotels! You can't leave rooms without heating because before arrival you will need to switch it on maximum. Most of the hotels has their heating /AC settings in the room and guests won't stay on 18 degrees if they paid £200/night. And things like linen - will be triple price to wash and iron.

I work in a health club , small , privately owned with a swimming pool , jacuzzi and nice gym
the steam room hasn’t been turned on since before the first covid lockdown

I think it will close

I think even council run pools will close , the electricity costs are already crippling

The tattoo and piercing industry is absolutely booming OP. On £90 p/h tattooing and £30+ per piercing done be worrying about us. There'll bd a few cutting down on their weed and coke habits i expect

Yes but lets face it most people who get multiple tatoos are not the sort of people who are looking down the road at what is about to happen to their disposable income, I feel they are also the sort of people who live month to month even if many earn lots in blue collar jobs.

I think these people will start to feel the pinch unexpetedly and need to reduce non essential outgoings.

I think people will still use a gym. You can have a shower and it’s somewhere to go after work to keep warm.

There's a restaurant in my town that's been there since as far back as I can remember (I'm early 40s) and is always busy at any time of day or evening, often with queues way beyond the front door. There's also a chippy/ice cream parlour that's been there even longer and is similarly busy. I think businesses like this that are firmly embedded in the community and incredibly well supported might feel the pinch a bit but will survive more or less unscathed.

Your local zumba class might not stick around. Community fitness class instructors pay hire fees for their halls, and hall hire fees are increasing. If it's costing them more to run the class and fewer people are coming because they can't justify the cost, it won't be financially viable to keep going. A lot of instructors went online during the lockdowns but that was when people still had disposable income to spend on classes.

Everything as a family we stopped going to soft play, cancelled all the kids paid activities except swimming lessons, stopped takeaways, only buying clothes as needed rather than because we like or fancy a new top, keep saying no to invites for drinks, nights out, liquid lunches, hair appointments are now further apart, no nail appointments though I stopped them a while back as I garden a lot.

We kept the monthly leisure centre pass as it covers swimming pool access for us all, swimming lessons, football, athletics for the kids and spin classes for me and is £34 a month. It's most likely going to increase but we will pay up to £45 as ds2 and ds3 are at the top of the lists for free swimming lessons with them which will save us £110 a month. I meal plan now and we waste no food now (we were shocking before). 2 of the 3 kids have to go school dinners which are free due to there age as we are in Scotland. Eldest has complex additional needs including ARFID so has a set packed lunch. We walk far more to reduce fuel costs, put of booking a foreign holiday and now shop in different places for food. Today's trip is 3 free library kids activities and the park. Tomorrow is swimming that's included in our membership.

These are preventative measures for us as a family. We are lucky as we have saved this money for the energy bills. I fear for those who can't afford to save or alternatively those that have stuck there heads in the sand over bills. However these are all businesses that no longer get my money.

@Oldcottoneye some dogs have to be groomed otherwise they become matted, and bakers bake bread as well , and people maybe purchased a birthday cake once a year
Doesn't make you frivolous ffs
I have a dog he gets groomed once or twice a year it was £40 now its £60
We could afford that but now the electric has all gone up and the grooming has gone up its going to be a struggle
Also we used to buy the odd cake from bakers couple quid here anx there for an iced bun but that won't happen anymore
No one is saying they have a private baker on call pr anything

@Oldcottoneye yet people manage and do?
Some people prioritise getting their dogs nails clipped correctly and safely or buying a wedding cake over a trip to wetherspoons.

Some people shockingly spend their little remaining money on small independent companies - the horror you must have. 🙄

I am the retired person in your comment above. We are okay for the moment. We have an oil tank which we have filled to the top for the winter. It was 79p a litre so £895 to fill it. Not cheap but at least it is a fixed cost now we have paid for it so it's up to us how long we can make it last. No gas supply here and the electricity is okay for now. I was a single parent doing supply teaching when my children were small. My son,now 30, phoned this week. He asked what on earth I would have done if we had been in the situation so many people are in now. I honestly don't know how I would have managed. My life has turned out very well but I used to think about money from the minute I woke up to the minute I managed to fall asleep. I can imagine the stress is immense for very many families just now. Christmas will be a huge ,not very distant, financial strain too.

@daisychain01 thats totally rubbish being good isn't enough to keep you going or in a job
You have a great run restaurant but if people can't afford to come through the doors you will shut
You could be the best employee but if a business goes under you don't have a job
I wonder if some people actually see whats going on around them

That's a good price for oil, ours is currently £1.22!

DH's electrician business folded during the last house price slump. DH realised the only way he could keep going was by skanking people into having more work done than was needed. He wasn't prepared to do that so shut down.

My eyes roll when people say that trades always make money.