Which businesses are going to go under?

[Nobledeedsandhotbaths]

I've been thinking about the upcoming crisis and wondering which 'non-essential' businesses are likely to lose most custom once things begin to bite.

Things like:
Tattoo artists
Nail technicians
Children's party entertainers
Just for a few examples.

There are many others I would class as non-essential that will potentially be ok because their client base is the wealthy, who will be less affected by what is going to happen.

What are other people's predictions for businesses that may struggle?

Totally agree. I’m glad I’m not the only person who thought this was odd.

Couldn't even get a table in one of our coffee shops last week ... and two new coffee shops have opened in our small town in the last few weeks....

They do at the moment. Once the increased price caps start taking effect, they won’t.

There's actually a thing called the 'lipstick effect' in which consumers lean towards spending money on less costly luxuries during times of economic crisis as people want luxuries to keep things cheerful despite the times.
That would suggest that the little luxuries like nail bars and a hair trim (perhaps not full foils), or maybe a reasonably priced massage etc would do well in times when holidays and designer bags are out of reach for many.

Apparently women's skirts get longer in times of economic distress too! So we can all look forward to the maxi making a comeback. 😅

@Oldcottoneye The poster said they had a dog groomer not a baker. They just know bakers in trouble. Taking your dog to the groomer is fairly normal even amongst the working class.

Costas and Starbucks will see a decline outside of South East once people realise that £4 on a coffee could be put to better use. My colleagues who could be classed as on very good salaries are talking about making their own lunches instead of Pret.

The High Street in general will be hammered once again.

Christmas spending could be a lot lower this year although who knows, sometimes people over compensate if they’ve had a shitty time.

Many of the nail salons in my city seem to be money laundering spots so I’m not sure how they will be effected if at all… same goes for some takeaways too.

I think car dealers will be the first to suffer. One of the biggest savings people can make is to keep their existing car, and not
commit to paying £XXX per month for a new one.

Unfortunately, there is going to be an increase in people giving up their pets as they can't afford them.

DIscretionary spending is going to be reduced massively as a massive amount of money that could be spent in the economy is going elsewhere - to be spent by whom and on what?

I live in a tourist city so it will be interesting to see the effect on tourism. All those B+Bs and hotels must have massive heating bills.

Don’t know how I’m going to do. I’m a sports massage therapist, and a pretty new business (started up this year). I suspect some clients will need to cut back but the ones who come because they’re in pain - I think they’ll stick it out if they can. I have a few clients from the construction industry, so I’m hoping they’ll be ok. Some that I reckon even this will bounce off them. Some who are able to claim their costs back so they should be ok too. It is a worrying time though, I’m worried for myself, and my clients, and my business, and my colleagues - other therapists and the salon I rent a room from.

My strength is that my overheads are low and many of those are directly related to the amount of business I do - so for instance, if I’m not working, I’m not generating laundry with electricity costs. My room rent is ad hoc, my insurance paid annually. I have fixed costs of just over £100 monthly, in the shape of a small loan that I’m using for a home treatment room and my online booking and client management system. Even if things go very badly wrong, I should still be able to cover that. So I might have to batten down the hatches a bit, but I should make it through.

Since returning to the office post Covid I have been buying lunch as a treat but this was never something I used to do. I also see younger colleagues spend £££ on coffees, sandwiches, smoothies which must be at least £8-10 per day. That's £40 - £50 a week unnecessary spending right there. I'm back to packed lunches next week.

My hairdresser was renting a chair from a bigger salon but the owner who wanted a 30% cut of her takings now wants 40%. She's decided to make her dining room at home into a salon and she's currently having it all done out - sadly she bought lots of equipment from a lady closing her salon but she said that even with her insurance and heating the room and using electricity giving 40% over wasn't going to be working for her

Exactly this! Small businesses are the first to crumble and they aren't all about the money. They are someones passion, dream, everything. So if you want to see those businesses get through the next 12 months - after a bloody hard two years - then think about where you shop.

I live in a city with a chocolate factory. Apparently chocolate sales do really well in recessions as it is about as cheap a “treat” as you can get.

I’m worried about the tourist side of the city - we have only just got over Covid and we really are dependent on tourists to keep going.

My DH isn’t renewing his gym membership - he’s going to pound the streets and get a second-hand cross trainer for the garage instead. It made me think that gyms and health clubs will struggle. Anybody else quitting the gym?

awful to essentially start a prediction thread as to who is going to go under. Crass and insensitive in the extreme.

Having said that, while there are undoubtedly going to be some businesses which are going to struggle, many people will find different ways of working, e.g. beauticians will go mobile and people will definitely still use them.

Many chains which go under were likely already in trouble as happened during the pandemic. Chains such as Bella Italia blamed the panic for their downfall but they were already on the verge.

And statistically the time coming out of a recession is a time when business booms.

I was in a coffee shop yesterday and you could barely stand. My local shopping centre was packed.

So while people are talking about giving things up on paper, they certainly don’t seem to be doing so in reality.

Also, many companies will struggle because they are simply over priced.

Gyms and takeaways are extortionately expensive. I can fill my fridge with pizza from the supermarket for the price of just one pizza and garlic bread from dominos or Pizza Hut.

Similarly I could go for a walk/run rather than pay the extortionate membership fees some gyms charge.

I feel most for the small businesses, but for some businesses I think this needs to be a wake up call that you just can’t continue to overcharge people, and that at some point people are going to rebelle.

Is that for all construction, I can imagine house builders keep going but I can't imagine domestic extensions or remodelling done in the middle of an economic crisis

I will personally fund my local soft play to stay open. The pandemic nearly finished me off with lack of things to do with DC. I longed for the day soft play opened again!

We have not renewed our cleaner's arrangement though (she was unreliable anyway so no huge deal), and we will stop eating out very often and takeaways will be knocked on the head all winter. Dominos should be quaking in their boots

I imagine if construction is hit there are also related hits with planning consultants , architects, draughtsman, project managers also hit

That’s because the higher price caps haven’t taken effect yet. When they do, people’s spending habits will change.

I belong to an informal local group of women who run their own businesses. Some are worried, some less so. My own clients all seem fairly solid and I have waiting list.

The woman offering a type of counselling at £70 an hour is likely to struggle. The woman who bakes amazing cakes and has a good following on social media says she has no shortage of orders and is getting requests for Christmas.

Ones that will suffer:

DIY and homeware shops
Children's extra curricular activities
Private schools
Travel agents/ holiday companies
UK tour guides
Car rentals
Cleaners
In shop hairdressers/ beauticians
Ice cream/ dessert shops
Pubs that aren't wetherspoons
Next and similar clothes shops
Sportswear
Cosmetic dentistry/ surgery
High end make up/ toiletries
Eco products
Fancy chocolates
New prams/ baby equipment
Hopefully puppy farms

What will do well:
Lottery tickets
Cheap alcohol
Big Pharma
Charity shops

We did £125 in pizza express this week . Thankfully it only cost £66 in cash as I'd used my tesco vouchers but come October I can't see us going there much and January 🥺.. forget about it . Il probably switch my hair appointments to just a cut and do the colour myself . It just won't be affordable my hairdresser has had to send messages out already about price rises .
Painters and decorators, we are moving house this autumn has planned to get the house refreshed but I think We'l be doing it ourselves .
This will be so bad for all small businesses.

That was my initial reaction. I do feel that it’s in poor taste.

It's already started in my area. Several cafes and bakeries have already closed. Waitrose & M&S almost empty. My nearest M&S used to be rammed on Friday lunchtimes, but yesterday was eerily quiet. The calm before the storm.

Places which have only just got back on their feet after Covid will be badly hit.

All that said, my nearest Asda and town centre was packed earlier this week. Perhaps people are making the most of things before prices go up.