Which businesses are going to go under?

[Nobledeedsandhotbaths]

I've been thinking about the upcoming crisis and wondering which 'non-essential' businesses are likely to lose most custom once things begin to bite.

Things like:
Tattoo artists
Nail technicians
Children's party entertainers
Just for a few examples.

There are many others I would class as non-essential that will potentially be ok because their client base is the wealthy, who will be less affected by what is going to happen.

What are other people's predictions for businesses that may struggle?

I don't really understand the children's party entertainers.

The bloke in a van who puts on a clown face, makes dogs out of balloons and puts a disco on?

Now I'm worried I've booked the wrong fella all these years!

Pet groomers - mine has raised her prices 100% (from $25 to $50) for a bath and simple clip. Her utility bills are jumping. She gave up her shop and is now working from her home.
I think we may see a lot more of that. My hairstylist gave up her shop during covid and now only does house calls. I know two professional bakers who closed up shops and are taking orders, baking in their home kitchens, and delivering. Working from home will become the new normal for many.

Are you an Exxex girl or something?
Who the fuck has dog groomers and bakers?
Oh, let me guess? The squeezed middle class?

The bloke in a van sounds scary

You know me, I have no fear. One wrong look and he's a goner!

Only the best for my kids 🤣

@Oldcottoneye I'm from a very deprived town and we have a shit tonne of bakers and dog groomers and their all busy (for now).

They're learn from home trades so pop up in areas where moms cant afford to go back to uni/college but want to learn a skill from home.

The working class can buy things outside of pints and betting slips you know..

@HelloDaisy 100% cost of materials is ridiculous and has been since covid hit just have to look at BCIS on inflation impacts its a very worrying time but saw my DF go through this each time as a contractor / QS he fought through at least 2 recessions that i remember when I was younger before retiring in 2010 after the last one. Know we can get through it but it will be tough and I will squirrel away any spare pennies i have which are minimal

Clothing and homewares I think really struggle in a downturn.

For us personally, if we are feeling like we have some decent savings in the bank and are on top of bills, I am more inclined to buy a couple of new outfits and maybe redecorate - I really enjoy fashion.

However if big bills are looming or either DH or I don’t feel secure in our work - I simply make do with what we have. The only clothing we buy is for the kids where necessary ( they do keep growing!) or to replace essentials that are worn out.

😁

You're not that deprived if you afford a dog groomer or indeed a fucking baker!

100% clothing and homewares will struggle.

If MN is anything to go by though, we'll all be buy air-fryers soon lol

All the dog businesses - groomers, walkers, doggy day care places etc.

I'm a sole trader joiner (female btw) and work from a workshop at home making bespoke furniture items, hoping not to jinx anything but business is good right now.

This might be totally off (don’t quote me in The Economist) but I feel like Sainsbury’s might feel a pinch.

Waitrose, M&S will still be frequented by those who can afford it. M&S is actually decent value for a lot of basic things. Tesco has silly Clubcard prices, Asda and Morrison’s are less pricey and Lidl and Aldi will probably actively benefit. Sainsbury’s has always been overly expensive for a bang average quality and range. Nectar points are also shit.

What were your ancestors doing? Sharpening the blades?

I think hair salons and cleaners, as well as some restaurants and other non-essential services.

we’ve started cutting back on these already, technically we can and should be able to still afford it as we have over £1000 disposable income each month, but bills have already started to reduce that and we don’t know how high bills will go in the next year. We’re used to eating out whenever we like, not having to think about hair cuts or massages and we’re about to get a cleaner, but now with the unknown we are cutting right back and saving the extra money instead.

I wish they'd can HS2 but that project is like a cockroach, it'll survive a bloody nuclear war.

I can't see new housing construction suffering, they've got shitloads of cash/operating profit slooshing around. In the last big recession it seemed like even more houses were being built. Same during the pandemic, when you'd have expected things to slow down, it kept going.

Governments like to build their way out of a crisis, it keeps people in work and off the UC list.

Any business that has a strong product and a bit of a feel good factor, great customer service will survive,

Any business that has rubbish customer service, shoddy product or duplication/saturation in the market that cannot stack up against their competitors, that hasn't taken a long hard look at their product range and consolidated to fewer better quality offerings will not survive, but they wouldn't have done anyway.

Any business that has failed to keep up with the times, has failed to tap into what customers really want, or have failed to adapt their business model will go under.

but they would have done anyway, the current trading conditions will just hasten their demise.

it's like people, if you're good at your job, give value-add and differentiate yourself from the run-of-the-mill, you will be the last to be let go (and by then we'll be out the other side!). Companies will always need the best people to help get through bad times.

I won't be stopping going to my hairdresser, maybe I will have slightly fewer hair appointments but I'll still support them. If everyone cuts back rather than cuts out then it could enable the good businesses to keep going. I expect the prices to climb though, so it will be on a case by case basis. I'd sooner ditch a few supermarket products than my hair appointment!

Last two years have been tough on catering companies that relied on city businesses; lunches, meetings, corporate events etc. Companies have less money to spend on evens and more people WFH means less business but the cost of food and rent still goes up.

I don't agree.

Believe me, the thoughts and ideas on this thread are the very things that small medium enterprises will be thinking about, planning for and making decisions about.

It has to be thus, there is absolutely no point not talking about the energy crisis in terms of the impact on business and livelihoods. That's what will get us out of this situation, by learning to be resilient, face facts and make adaptations to suit the current trading conditions.

it isn't about "enjoying" the predictions, it's recognising what can happen and being prepared.

Dog groomers are fairly standard you know 😂

The tattoo and piercing industry is absolutely booming OP. On £90 p/h tattooing and £30+ per piercing done be worrying about us. There'll bd a few cutting down on their weed and coke habits i expect.

Probably places like Next and some of the clothes shops like Fatface and WhiteStuff where a lot of middle income shop, I include myself in these people and would probably think twice before buying a £40 item of clothing

For example I haven't renewed my £20 Next delivery pass as I don't think I will get the value out of it, usually I just let it run

Well there you go. Dog groomers are middle class. Who knew?!
my very deprived, Welsh valleys town will be delighted to hear this as it has at least 4 of them.