The host city selection process is going to be in two stages:
All applications will be considered. A shortlist will then be drawn up “based on their ability to meet the requirements and their responses around capability and experience”.
“The final decision on selecting the host city will be based on a city or region’s capacity and capability in meeting the BBC’s and the EBU’s requirements, as well as availability of resources and general experience in hosting a large and complex event such as the Eurovision Song Contest.
“For example, last year the EBU’s host city criteria was based on providing a venue able to accommodate at least 10,000 spectators (as well as a press centre), that should be within easy reach of an international airport and with ample hotel accommodation.”
The BBC may consult the Government, but the host city will ultimately be decided upon by the BBC and the EBU.
Cities that are definitely intending to bid:
Aberdeen
Birmingham
Bristol
Glasgow
Liverpool
Cities that are still considering their position and are thinking of bidding:
Belfast
Brighton
Derry
Leeds
London
Manchester
Newcastle
Nottingham
Sheffield
Sunderland
Wolverhampton
Cardiff have said they are dropping out the race due to the complexity of hosting.
Worth pointing out Leeds is 2023 City of Culture.
I have to say looking at the arena capacity I'd rule out Belfast, Bristol, Brighton, Derry, Liverpool, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sunderland and Wolverhampton.
Uk indoor arenas by size:
Manchester AO Arena 21,000
London The O2 Arena 2007 20,000
Birmingham Utilita Arena 15,800
Birmingham Resorts World Arena 15,685
Aberdeen P&J Live 15,000
Glasgow The OVO Hydro 14,300
Leeds First Direct Arena 13,781
Sheffield Arena 13,600
London OVO Arena Wembley 12,500
Newcastle upon Tyne Utilita Arena 11,400
Liverpool M&S Bank Arena 11,000
Belfast SSE Arena 1999 10,800
Nottingham Motorpoint Arena 10,000
Yes Belfast, Liverpool, Newcastle and Nottingham do have a venue big enough but I think they will want to maximise capacity - with so many alternatives, I think they will want a minimum of 13,000 capacity for the UK. I think the comments about complexity rule out a temporary or outdoor venue. Cardiff's exit is notable on that score.
That makes a possible short list down to
Manchester, London, Birmingham, Aberdeen, Glasgow, Leeds and Sheffield.
I'd rule out Aberdeen due to it being a pain in the backside for BBC logistics and cost. Leeds and Sheffield might also suffer on that score too because they aren't BBC bases. The BBC are going to want to keep hotel costs down.
That leaves Manchester, London, Glasgow and Birmingham as your most viable options. I'd probably rule out London for cost too and because my suspicion is they will want to go for regionality. Birmingham is doing the Commonwealth Games so I think they will look to somewhere different.
Its hard to get past Glasgow and Manchester as your red hot favourites based on logic and practical considerations. Leeds possibly is your wildcard outsider.