Well .... one imagines that no one really likes to tell him that the war is going very badly! It's thought that he cherrypicked the info about how Ukraine would respond to an invasion, isn't it?
ISW Takeaways
Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transport infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian confidence in the security of Russian rear areas.
The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remained relatively unchanged on August 19 despite Russian claims that Ukrainian forces would stage a provocation at the plant.
Russian authorities are likely preparing show trials of Ukrainian defenders of Azovstal on Ukraine’s Independence Day in order to further consolidate occupational control of occupied areas of Ukraine and set conditions to demoralize Ukrainian troops.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks north of Kharkiv City, southwest and southeast of Izyum, east of Siversk, and south and east of Bakhmut.
Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful ground assaults on settlements on the Southern Axis.
Russia continues to generate regional volunteer units and will likely deploy many of them to Kherson and Ukraine’s south as part of the 3rd Army Corps.
Russian occupation authorities are strengthening their control of educational infrastructure in occupied areas in preparation for the approaching school year and may be sending Ukrainian children to Russia as part of a broader repopulation campaign. [if your women don't want 10 kids each, steal them eh?]
[About the Crimea:
Reports from August 18 about Ukrainian strikes are affecting the Russian information space despite the fact that these reports were likely overblown. Available open-source evidence indicates that Ukrainian forces did not conduct a successful kinetic attack against either the Stary Oskol Air Base in Belgorod or Belbek Air Base in Crimea on August 18. Geolocated footage shows that a fire started at a field just south of the Stary Oskol Airfield (rather than at the airfield itself), and satellite imagery shows Russian forces transporting ammunition and military equipment to a forest close to the field.[1] An unspecified Russian Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official reiterated that Russian air defenses near the Kerch Strait Bridge activated against a Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) rather than an incoming strike.[2] There is no visual evidence of damage to either air base of as August 19. Geolocated footage shows no explosions or evidence of kinetic activity near the Belbek Air Base overnight on August 18-19, lending credence to claims that footage reportedly showing the explosion is recycled footage misattributed to the Belbek Air Base.[3] As ISW reported on August 18, Russian sources largely reported on and disseminated these false or exaggerated reports, indicating broader Russian panic.[4] .... Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications (UA StratCom) reported on August 19 that Russian forces are not in control of the situation in Crimea as evidenced by the blocking of the Kerch Strait Bridge and activation of air alarms in Sevastopol for the first time since the start of the invasion
+++
⚡️Britain: Russia has no moral right to sit at G20.
⚡️Barros: Ukrainians targeting Russia's logistics to regain control of Dnipro River and Kherson Oblast.
Russia prepared for Ukraine's southern counteroffensive and bolstered its defenses with units and heavy equipment, leading to Ukraine targeting supply centers that support Russian lines.
⚡️New York Times: Russia appoints new commander of Black Sea Fleet, Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov (from report by TASS)
⚡️Ukrainian Air Force strikes Russian positions in southern Ukraine 11 times.
⚡️Member of Kyiv's Territorial Defense unit under investigation for illegal sale of arms.
⚡️Portugal opposes banning tourist visas for Russians.
⚡️ Explosion reported in Sevastopol in occupied Crimea.
A powerful explosion was heard near the Russian Black Sea Fleet's headquarters in the occupied Sevastopol at 8:20 a.m. on Aug. 20, according to Refat Chubarov, head of Mejlis, a representative body of Crimean Tatars.
⚡️ 2 more ships carrying Ukrainian grain depart Chornomorsk port.
⚡️ 4 Russian Kalibr cruise missiles shot down in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
❗️ Prior to the full-scale invasion on Ukraine, the Russians have prepared at least two puppet "governments" meant to be installed in Kyiv after capturing the city. One of them was stationed in Belarus and formed around Yanukovych*
- Viktor Yanukovych is a former President of Ukraine, who was later stripped of this rank.
⚡️Germany has provided three more Gepards for Ukraine, according to the site of the German government. The government has also transferred eleven tracked M113 Armored Personnel Carriers and a thousand of MRes. Apart from that, the following items are currently being prepared for transportation:
- Twenty 70-mm rocket launchers equipped with 2,000 missiles for them;
- 1,592 missiles for 155 mm artillery;
- 225 Vulcano missiles for 155 mm artillery;
- 60,200 40 mm cartridges;
- 30 MG-3 machine guns;
- six forklifts;
- 40 modernized anti-drone devices;
- 12 Bergepanzer 2 armored repair and evacuation vehicles.
[Scholz has -very- far from exerted himself hard to support Ukraine but the German army is, for good historical reasons, not in a good state though Germany itself is one of the world's largest arms exporters].
💭 The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is letting the invaders know that the ICEYE satellite purchased using the crowdfunded money is already used as intended
"We. See. You. Ukrainian people fundraised $20 mln to watch russian occupiers smoking negligently over the illegal Kerch Bridge.
As you know, smoking in public places in Ukraine is prohibited
🛰 Maxar company has taken new satellite photos of Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant located in the occupied city of Energodar. There are no visible significant traces of the recent shelling or damage of the plant or around it
Negotiations with Türkiye regarding the membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO will take place by the end of the month — Minister for Foreign Affairs of Finland Pekka Haavisto, according to Yle
📣 Bloomberg: The White House believes that the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, should attend the G20 summit in Indonesia, even if Putin participates [well that will be fun. If he goes, I hope that 3 squadrons of protective fighter planes accompany him].