Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

@Ijsbear - Today 22:17
2h
Russian media report a famous terrorist Girkin/Strelkov was detained while trying to get to 🇺🇦 through Crimea

He openly criticized Putin and the army leadership recently for their failures in war against 🇺🇦.

Reportedly, he tried to cross into Ukraine using a fake passport.

(Igor Girkin is thought to be responsible for shooting down the MH17 airliner flying from the NL to Malaysia and I think was photo'd celebrating it)

Isn’t he FSB? And once a governor of some kind in occupied Ukbraine?

Arestovych said the same. They even shared his picture - he shaved his moustache off. He declared he's going to fight in Ukraine (for Russia, obvs) and allegedly they let him go, although Arestovych said the latter part hasn't been verified yet.

Personally, I think he's trying to flee into Europe.

Before that he made a very critical post on his channel (he does this a lot) how Russia has 3 options left:

1. Shoot everyone who's in charge of military command (because they're doing a shit job)
2. Repaint Kremlin into blue and yellow
3. Withdraw all troops into Russia

Thanks @MagicFox, this was really interesting.

This part in particular stood out:

The Kremlin will have protected itself from Western pressure at the expense of losing a very high degree of its strategic autonomy.

Gauging from Russian BBC, its the commandment that is moving to the left bank (out if Kherson), not just one person. I doubt it's anything to do with military strategy, I think they're moving while they can.

Explosions are most likely Ukraine hitting military bases/supplies - this is a prime time of the day for them.

I thought Igor Girki is a suspected war criminal.

Wikipedia says "Girkin is allegedly a war criminal. On 19 June 2019, Dutch prosecutors charged Girkin for murder in the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 and issued an international arrest warrant against him."

Would have thought it is safer for him to stay in Russia than risk being arrested outside. However, I guess at this point, it might be safer for him to be held in custody in the Hague. Wouldn't want to be detained in a Russian prison because we know what happens in there ...

Maybe not Europe as an end point, plenty of countries out there he could potentially hide in. Or maybe we're underestimating him and he's really gonna go and inspire Russian soldiers and show them how to fight...

Owlsdance, that actually makes sense. Girkin criticises the russian military in Ukraine for incompetence, so he is going to go there and show them how it is done. That is more likely than Girkin switching sides.

Russian officers are retreating without their troops. That would win you a court martial in the US Army. And because Russian troops can't use the loo without orders, this will make things much easier for the UAF.

@MissConductUS Russian officers are saving themselves and leaving their troops behind in Kherson? Gosh, what cowards and dishonorable behaviour. I would expect nothing less from them. If those troops are unsupplied and realise they are abandoned by their officers, I cannot see them fighting for long. They'd be swimming, literally. If this is going on, at this rate, how is it possible for Russia to annex Kherson?

Has the retreat to the other side of the Dnieper been confirmed?

Someone on Twitter kindly explained the left/right bank stuff. As you canoe down the river from the source to the sea, you call it left bank or right bank. So in fact it actually means they are travelling from kinda the North West over the River to kinda South East.

+++

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that support Russian forces on the right bank of the Dnipro River.

Russian forces may be reprioritizing efforts in northeastern Donetsk Oblast in order to draw Ukrainian attention away from the Southern Axis.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk, east of Siversk, and south and east of Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted a limited ground assault north of Kharkiv City.

Russian and Ukrainian authorities accused each other of shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Russian authorities are failing to pay Russian reservists and members of volunteer units for service in Ukraine.

Russian-backed occupation authorities are likely dealing with internal challenges that are complicating efforts to administer occupation regimes and institute restoration projects in decimated areas of Donbas.

+++

⚡️ Macron signs protocol for Sweden, Finland to join NATO.

Ukraine’s military destroys 2 Russian ammunition depots in southern Ukraine.

⚡️ Prosecutor General’s Office: Russian forces committed over 28,000 war crimes.

⚡️ Russia shells Mykolaiv port infrastructure with Uragan rocket launchers.

⚡️Governor: Up to 40% of evacuees arriving in Zaporizhzhia are from Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast.

🌾 The first ship with Ukrainian grain arrived in Italy — Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Italy

⚡️ LRT (www.lrt.lt/naujienos/lietuvoje/2/1759612/estijai-uzdraudus-atvykti-rusams-lietuva-vertina-si-sprendima-pasisako-uz-es-ribojimus): Lithuania and the Czech Republic support the EU-level proposal to ban the entry of Russians

🖇 Deutsche Welle: International human rights organization Amnesty International wants independent experts to check the process of drawing up its report with allegations against the Armed Forces of Ukraine [too late as far as I'm concerned. They ignored their own Ukrainian branch. I seriously have a question: have they been taking (perhaps unknowingly, Putin loves an unaware catspaw) Russian money and were influenced? Or were they simply very, very stupid? Either way AI is no longer the organisation it used to be and it's not fit for purpose now. The Chief Exec hasn't even resigned].

📣 After the Russian invasion, Ukraine should be treated as a NATO member, Henry Kissinger in an interview with The Wall Street Journal [He changed his stance; kudos]

Photo: 📸 Mariupol today: people are waiting for a bus at the bus stop

@Ijsbear yes I haven't felt able to get too excited about Kherson as the river thing is confusing. But also, when Kherson is taken back, and it will be, I do worry about how Putin will respond. I'm thinking nuclear in Ukraine. Kherson would be a major loss and cannot be dressed up as a good will gesture. The taking and keeping hostage of a nuclear plant is also terrifying.

hey :)

Somehow I'm less worried about a nuclear attack directly than the Zaph NPP. I could see Putin arranging for something to go wrong there under the thin skim of 'accident'. An outright nuclear attack would have China and almost the whole world condemning and possibly isolating Russia and I don't think he's ready to go that far. But an accident-on-purpose, yes, I could see that

Accident on purpose definitely seems more likely than an actual attack but I'm really hoping that even that is unlikely. Would Russian troops do something knowing they would be destroyed by any nuclear "accident"?

Given some of them dug in around Chernobyl and are rumoured to have become very ill or worse as a result I doubt many have a clue on the subject.

If an officer says "fire at that large building" they will.

They dug up the ground around Chernobyl. I suspect that 1) they are ignorant and 2) Russia does not value its soldiers. I'd lay a lot of money they would arrange an accident and simply not care that their own people would get caught up in it.

Digging up the ground wouldn't strike many as dangerous if they were ignorant to the dangers of the ground around Chernobyl but I think most would have an idea that blowing up a building in a nuclear plant would definitely be dangerous.

Officers leaving explosives and getting out and not caring about the rest is probably more likely. Urgh, its horrid to think about, I really hope they don't. Does anyone know how big an impact it could have e.g. spread of radioactive material on the wind?

I think most would have an idea that blowing up a building in a nuclear plant would definitely be dangerous.

Depends which bit of the plant and I suspect a Russian conscript wouldn't have a clue.

Does anyone know how big an impact it could have e.g. spread of radioactive material on the wind?

Now you ask that ... I bet a lot of very trained people are working just that out, right now on a Sunday. Plus how to handle it.

I think if I was Biden, I'd be telling Putin that if anything happens to that nuclear power plant, that would be the red line and NATO would go in, and not necessarily stop at Russian borders but head up to Moscow.

Make it in the Russian best interests to treat that NPP with silk and kid gloves.

@Ijsbear · Today 09:15
Someone on Twitter kindly explained the left/right bank stuff. As you canoe down the river from the source to the sea, you call it left bank or right bank. So in fact it actually means they are travelling from kinda the North West over the River to kinda South East.

That is useful, thank you for passing that on. My mind has hitherto been clouding over about who is on which side of the river.

After the Russian invasion, Ukraine should be treated as a NATO member, Henry Kissinger in an interview with The Wall Street Journal [He changed his stance; kudos]
His previous general negativity was like a dark cloud. This seems assertion seems suddenly positively, even aggressively, pro-Ukrainian.

Definitely it should be a red line for NATO - Putin needs to understand that it absolutely cannot be done, that he will never recover from ordering that.

Funny you should say that, DH was interviewd by New Zealand radio station on this very question earlier this week.

His expert opinion is that bombing the power plant would be catastrophic for the people in the surrounding areas and would cause absolute chaos. However the reactor design is such that there wouldn't be another Chernobyl. He thinks it would raise radiation levels across Europe but not enough to worry about (although the authorities might run around like headless chickens to begin with).

mobile.twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1558475138055770115 Wagner headquarters in the Donbas destroyed, seemingly they were trolling the Ukrainians and it was easy to geo locate them but even worse in one of the photos they left the address

Wrong link sorry here it is mobile.twitter.com/AricToler/status/1558869697747107840

Something similar happened in the war against ISIS. Some young jihadi posted a selfie on Facebook with the caption, "Here I am at an ISIS military command post". Someone in the US military noticed and requested that Facebook provide the metadata for the original photo, which included the exact longitude and latitude where it was taken. Facebook complied, and the building was destroyed a few hours later.

Seemingly this was a Russian journalist