Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

@Natsku · Today 10:53

“I know that war games are still used as teaching tools at West Point and the US Army War College, so they can't be completely useless.”

Use them in the Finnish military too, I think my BIL teaches with virtual ones.

Welcome back @Ijsbear good to have your updates again

I am sure that at the very least war games teach how to keep thinking, planning, and responding, during a war.

The Return of Great Power War: Scenarios of Systemic Conflict Between the United States and China (RAND Institute): https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/researchreports/RRA800/RRA830-1/RANDD_RRA830-1.pdf

I stupidly watched this and wish I hadn't. I also thought about all the people captured by the Russians and my blood is cold thinking about how they're treated

I also tuned into the UNSC debate. Nebenzia is such a bare faced liar.

But I did love the King of Shade, Kyslytsya who opened his address as. "President, respected colleagues of the security council.....and representative of the terrorist state Russia". (Or words to that effect, but you get the gist)

well, it was rather a short precis so it's hard to tell.

I noted this: ▪️ The representative of China, who currently chairs the UN, called on Russia and Ukraine to return to peace talks.

so perhaps they do. But talk is cheap, so who knows if they'll actually put pressure on Russia about the nuclear power plant.

I found the whole quote, it wasn't a short precis at all.

It seems that the UN back the idea, in fact I think the UN might have called for it first.

⚡️US backs creating demilitarized zone around Russian-occupied nuclear plant.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson said that fighting near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Russian-occupied Enerhodar is “dangerous and irresponsible” and urged Russian forces to cease “all military operations at or near Ukrainian nuclear facilities.”

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for the “withdrawal of any military personnel and equipment from the plant" and said that continued fighting there may lead to a disaster.

Russia has effectively used the nuclear plant as a shield and a tool of blackmail, constantly shelling Ukrainian positions from the plant's territory.

Thanks, Ijsbear.

Maybe I did dream it.

Iran reportedly began training Russian forces on Iranian UAV systems in recent weeks, demonstrating the deepening military cooperation between Iran and Russia.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-and-iran-double-down-their-strategic-partnership well worth reading.

Putin may seek to benefit from Iranian leaders’ experience operating under heavy international sanctions and building military systems with devalued currencies and limited access to foreign parts. He is also apparently no longer trying to curb Iran's incursions into Syria.

Iran's leverage with Russia has increased.

A worrying development with Iran, though not as worrying as if China started supporting Russia militarily (not heard anything on the latter so far).

Excerpts from the link:

RUSSIA AND IRAN DOUBLE DOWN ON THEIR STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP
Aug 11, 2022 - Press ISW
...
"Ukraine. Iran is providing weapons and possibly conducting cyberattacks to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Iran agreed to provide some of its most sophisticated military drones, such as the Shahed-129 and Shahed-191, to Russia for use in Ukraine. A senior Ukrainian official claimed on August 5 that the Kremlin had received 46 drones thus far, and Western media has indicated that Iran could provide up to 300 total. An unidentified US official claimed on August 9 that Russian personnel are currently in Iran training to use the drones.

[Argh, so many Iranian drones. I did not know Iran is such a leader in making drones. Hope Russian soldiers are rubbish at using them. ]
...
Changing Power Dynamics

Iran enjoys a stronger position than it had previously in this partnership. Russia has historically been the dominant party, but Iranian leaders have extracted military concessions from the Kremlin in recent months. Tehran has traditionally sought to purchase military technologies from Moscow rather than the inverse. The Kremlin fielding Iranian drones in Ukraine will showcase these platforms to other potential international buyers, further benefitting Iran. Furthermore, Russia has previously tried to limit Iranian influence in Syria but is now enabling its expansion.

These Russian concessions indicate a shifting power dynamic as Putin seeks economic and military support from a position of growing need. Mounting global isolation and the war in Ukraine are weakening Putin and forcing him to lean on Iran (and other revisionist powers) more heavily. Putin may seek to benefit from Iranian leaders’ experience operating under heavy international sanctions and building military systems with devalued currencies and limited access to foreign parts.

US Policy Implications

Deepening Russo-Iranian ties will almost certainly threaten US and allied interests in Europe, the Middle East, and around the globe. Iranian material support to Russia may help the Kremlin achieve some of its military objectives in Ukraine and eastern Europe. Russian support to Iran’s nascent military space program and air force could improve Iranian targeting and increase the threat it poses to the US and its partners in the Middle East. Growing Iranian control and influence in Syria will enable the IRGC from Syria to threaten US military bases in the Middle East and our regional partners, such as Israel and Turkey, more effectively. Finally, Moscow and Tehran will likely leverage their deepening economic ties to mitigate US sanctions."

blueshoes · Today 23:29
Those 300 Iranian drones are certainly a worrying development. I too hope they aren’t any good at using them.

morning

Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted ground attacks east of Siversk and northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks southwest and northwest of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian forces destroyed the last functioning bridge Russian forces used to transport military equipment near the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.

Ukrainian officials confirmed additional Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots and a logistics point in Kherson Oblast.

Russian regional officials may be misrepresenting percentage fill of newly formed volunteer battalions.

Ukrainian partisans are likely targeting Russian occupation officials and Ukrainian collaborators who are preparing for the sham annexation referenda to disrupt the Russian annexation of occupied Ukraine

+++

⚡️ Air Force: Saki air base runway remains operational.

⚡️ RFE/RL: Russian proxies in Donetsk Oblast set ‘trial’ of foreign fighters in Ukraine for Aug. 15.

⚡️ Mayor: Russian forces use hospital grounds in Melitopol as military base.

⚡️ Mayor: Russian forces shell Kharkiv.

⚡️ Mayor: Russian forces damaged, destroyed over 3,000 residential buildings in Irpin, Kyiv Oblast.

🖼Artists paint cars in Irpin that were destroyed during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine

❗️Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Donetsk Regional State Administration, said that approximately 350,000 residents currently remain in the region. The authorities are urging them to evacuate because during the heating period they will be able to provide heat to a little over 200,000 people.

⚡️India refused to create an alternative payment system with Russia, whose banks are disconnected from the SWIFT payment system
The Russians offered India to create an alternative to SWIFT and settle in rubles or rupees. But the Indians refused.

Oh that's good that India refused.

Like those painted cars :)

yes, I was slightly surprised they refused to be honest. I can't see any huge downside to it. It would annoy the West but India has a neutral stance and still trades hugely in Russian oil and gas afaik.

Aren't they beautiful!

@LoveLarry · Yesterday 12:49
I stupidly watched this and wish I hadn't. I also thought about all the people captured by the Russians and my blood is cold thinking about how they're treated

I apologise. I was so upset I wanted to share it. I should not have, or at least added a trigger warning. I cannot get it out if my head. It is so horrible you can’t believe people could do what is shown, calmly, systematically.

Basically: know that the Russians will be doing the same to many prisoners in Ukraine. It is part of who they are.

I’m sorry too @LoveLarry but I do think it’s important to understand the culture that Ukraine are dealing with.

Please don't apologise. I agree it needs to be seen. I can't stop thinking about it but I'm glad I know about it

One scene out of many was especially chilling. I won't repeat it but it was the matter of fact way two of these animals were doing what they were doing

My heart breaks for everyone "detaine" by these absolute filthy savages

I did some quick googling around the implications of India using Russia’s alternative to SWIFT. A rupee-ruble payments system is a bilateral payment system.

The main sticking point with such bilateral payment mechanisms is fixing the exchange rate. In the global forex trade, exchange rates are determined by taking US Dollar as the intermediary currency. The rupee-ruble exchange rate would be unstable and vulnerable to wide fluctuations, particularly due to high inflation in Russia. Deals like this are often short-lived. They lack the deep liquidity provided primarily by the dollar. Without liquidity, trade dries up.

Apart from gaining from cheap oil and military hardware from Russia, India stands to lose politically as it is a direct challenge to US and EU sanctions. This is not in India’s long term interests. SWIFT is a messaging system used by banks to move money across borders but apparently it is also a surveillance tool because the transaction messages can show up the involvement of a sanctioned entity. To take the lead in adopting a brand-new institutional arrangement with Russia runs the risk of India being seen as abetting Putin’s regime in avoiding sanctions.

If I was India, I would be careful not to throw my hat in with Russia over the US for as long as I could.

Thanks for the explanation blueshoes.

The thought occurred that India may have serious doubts about Russian military hardware now!

Ijsbear, agree. I suspect India is now in a bit of a dilemma due to its dependence on Russian arms. It will be difficult for them to switch and if they made the strategic decision to, need to maintain at least a neutral stance with other major arms suppliers like US.

Article on implications of Russian dependency on China:

"China’s New Vassal
How the War in Ukraine Turned Moscow Into Beijing’s Junior Partner"

www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-new-vassal

Very interesting article. Don't know if things are progressing as far as that article suggests, but a lot of it seems very true, especially the future developments.

Russia, China's little brother.

I bet that isn't what Putin expected when he invaded.

The Kyiv Independent, [13/08/2022 17:45]
⚡️Governor: Russian army command leaves Kherson.

According to Mykolaiv Oblast Governor Vitaliy Kim, the Russian army command has been moving to the left bank of the Dnipro River.

Earlier, Ukraine reported that it hit a bridge over the Nova Kakhovka dam in Kherson Oblast, thereby preventing Russian forces from easily crossing the river splitting the occupied Kherson Oblast in half.

(what isn't said is, is this just part of the command or the whole thing? Russia has been moving a great deal of troops southwards at the moment to reinforce that area, so perhaps this is a strategic move).

@LoveLarry · Today 14:15
tMy heart breaks for everyone "detaine" by these absolute filthy savages

That’s what they are.

It’s not only what they are all doing but the whole way they have systematised it which is horrific.

To think they don’t even care that they are always being filmed, they are so unashamed.

mobile.twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1558475138055770115 big explosion in Mariupol, Ukrainian partisans?

Presumably there is nothing left of the old Mariupol to bomb. Let's hope something nasty happened to a Russian installation.

another report from Gerashchenko though I take it with a huge dose of salt at the moment:

Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
·
2h
Russian media report a famous terrorist Girkin/Strelkov was detained while trying to get to 🇺🇦 through Crimea.

He openly criticized Putin and the army leadership recently for their failures in war against 🇺🇦.

Reportedly, he tried to cross into Ukraine using a fake passport.

(Igor Girkin is thought to be responsible for shooting down the MH17 airliner flying from the NL to Malaysia and I think was photo'd celebrating it)