Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

100% this.

Ben Wallace is the man. Johnson is the showman.

@Rabbitholedigger

"Lots of Ukrainians worried on Twitter about BJ and them losing UK support."

The reality is there was and is much, much, more behind the level of UK support for Ukraine than Johnson......but he sure as heck made sure he was front and centre when it came to associated PR...

Reality is a lot of UK support and assistance for the Ukraine military has been ongoing for quite a few years, well before the start of the Johnson Premiership, for example tucked away in a recent press release is this:

"The previous Operation Orbital saw the UK train more than 22,000 Ukrainian personnel from 2015 until the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The new programme would train forces outside of the country.
The battle-winning skills taught during the seven-year programme enabled Ukrainian forces to launch a ferocious defence against Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion."

www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-offer-major-training-programme-for-ukrainian-forces-as-prime-minister-hails-their-victorious-determination

In 2015 David Cameron was UK PM.

I can't see why a change of PM would alter the level of support.

@MagicFox MagicFox · Today 12:51
"The military historian Antony Beevor joins Serhii Plokhy, professor of Ukrainian history at Harvard, on Spectator TV this week to talk about the war in Ukraine. This is an edited transcript of their discussion."

www.spectator.co.uk/article/putin-may-be-prepared-to-go-to-the-limits-antony-beevor-and-serhii-plokhy-in-conversation

Thank you, MagicFox.
I am glad the Russian propensity for celebrating cruelty is pointed out in the discussion(my bold). It does seem to be particular to them dad part of a philosophy, even if of course there can be outbreaks of savagery from any army including in the West.

Any crowdfunding – buying vehicles and so forth – is a tremendous help. Everybody should do what they what they can in those circumstances, especially as we’re seeing a repetition of the atrocities committed, particularly in, say, 1945, by the Red Army.

There’s been an increasing debate about where all of this brutality comes from – this casual savagery. The Russian soldiers are treated rather as the Red Army was often treated by its own commanders in the second world war – with contempt and also with a total lack of feeling. One can’t generalise because obviously there is no DNA of national character but, at the same time, there is a question of national self-image. And I do feel that a lot of this goes back a very long way, perhaps to the Mongol invasions of the 13th century: a belief in the frightfulness of war, and with it a belief that cruelty and savagery are legitimate or natural war weapons.

Certainly the crimes that have been committed – of which more and more have become evident in just the last couple of weeks – show that things haven’t changed very much in that particular way. There is an attitude that brutality is a form of strength, a sort of Russian Kremlin view of strength.

@notimagain ·Today 13:49

I can't see why a change of PM would alter the level of support.

Thank you, that is reassuring. It is the actual support that matters the most, even if the showmanship as RedToothBrush aptly calls it helps.

Glad to see the “shout out” (is that the term these days) a few posts prior for Antony Beevor and the comments about the Red Army, brutality and the current Russian Army,

If you have read either of his works “Stalingrad” or perhaps of more relevance “Berlin” you’ll certainly be looking at current events and realizing exactly how little the Russian army has changed in almost eighty years, both in terms of it’s use of infantry and artillery and in how it deals with civilian population caught up in a conflict.

I've also seen the concern over this on twitter.
Boris has been open and clear about Putin. I hope whoever comes in immediately slams putin and makes it very clear they take the same stance.

Germany/France even Italy have all been really weak.

It appears contrary to a few reports “Boris” hasn’t been the only one being open and clear - do people really think Boris was the only person being direct with Mr Putin?

For some time now some countries leaders actually do appear to have been having some fairly robust conversations with Putin in private, at least up until now:

Macron/Putin phone call

Problem now is the Russians are griping about the contents of such calls getting into the public domain…

Johnson is still not open about his meetings with Alexander Lebedev

Liam Byrne tells MPs he has seen intelligence reports suggesting Alexander Lebedev is considered an important asset by the FSB, with ties to the Russian nuclear programme.

I find the a leb stuff interesting.

How do we know he's against us? Al that is?

If al is a Russian spy, why has he been allowed to become paper owner etc.
What does his ex gf say?

If he is a spy how do we know he's not been turned by the Brits? How do we know that even Boris himself didn't turn him and male him our asset?

How do we know the opp isnt true? That al tried to turn Boris into an asset?

Maybe they were just both beneficial to the other? Maybe Al is just a thick trust fund boy with nothing to offer anyone?

A bit like the situation with r ambramovjch

We know he's done extremely dodgy bad things but we don't actually know in this current situation what his stance is?

"Putin says 'we haven't even begun seriously [fighting] in Ukraine'" 😳

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1545092557507629063?s=21&t=cxVEKi4IJmRINzaSrPzzJQ

Putin is full of hot air

Bit left field but any one know where things are with Kaliningrad and Lithuania? Just realised I haven’t heard anything in days about it.

Lithuania is standing very strong against being pushed into allowing Russian goods to transit, reported yesterday on Twitter from one of the more reliable sources (or was it UkraineNOW? i forget everything)

No further news.

Someone in the Duma said recently that Russia could "reclaim" Alaska as payback for the sanctions. I think they're all delusional.

US Military Bases in Alaska

Seconded..especially given the assets pretty much permanently in place at Eielson and most especially Elmendorf.

@MagicFox MagicFox · Today 18:32
"Putin says 'we haven't even begun seriously [fighting] in Ukraine'" 😳

twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1545092557507629063?s=21&t=cxVEKi4IJmRINzaSrPzzJQ

On News at Ten tonight it was said that it is generally understood that this was intended for an internal audience. I hope that is true.

Thank you for these threads, they are very informative, especially as many of my conversations in rl people do not want to talk about heavy subjects, which I understand as it is frightening.

I don't feel qualified to contribute and I would like to know more about international relations, I feel lacking in knowledge. What do you all speculate the wider aims of this conflict are for the Russians? Sadly, I read that 22% of Ukraine's agricultural land is under their control and plans are to sell it to Iraq, Iran and Saudi. I saw also on the BBC News that Putin 'invited' the West to face him on the battlefield and I am wondering if this is a plan to try and create a Russian alliance with these countries in their pocket.

Then again I've heard speculation that when he's gained control on the Donbas he'll say he's ready to talk, but that's not looking likely.

""Putin says 'we haven't even begun seriously [fighting] in Ukraine'" 😳"

I wonder what his domestic audience makes of that?

I suspect it was simply more bombast and lies. We -know- they are struggling, we know that Russia's govt has the same relationship to the truth as purple does to orange and we know they spin off threats like the Niagara falls.

There are some people whose use of language is disconnected from anything approaching the genuine state of things. Ime (for very different reasons) people with dementia, people who lie pathologically to themselves and everyone else are like this. They can sound convincing but there is nothing behind the words.

Judge by actions not verbosity. Putin is afraid to generally mobilize, the army is exhausted and struggling in many areas and the 2nd biggest army in the world is advancing at the speed of a very few km per day in a huge land with 1/10 the army size after no less than 4 months.

There is considerable danger (and immense loss) to Ukraine. Quantity counts. But Putin's words are simply flimflam - look at the actions.

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Russian forces are conducting an operational pause to rest and reconstitute.

Russian forces continued efforts to advance toward Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and may be setting conditions to advance from the southeast of Barvinkove—either toward Slovyansk or toward Kramatorsk.

Russian forces made marginal gains to the southeast of Siversk and continued offensive operations west of the Lysychansk area.

Russian forces continued offensive operations to the south and east of Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted a limited and unsuccessful attack north of Kharkiv City.

Ukrainian partisans are likely continuing to target Russian-controlled railways around Melitopol.

Russian oblasts are continuing to create their own ad hoc volunteer units to compensate for personnel losses in Ukraine.

+++

⚡️ Russian shelling destroys wheat fields in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

⚡️ Reuters: Ukraine urges Canada not to release gas turbine to Russia.

⚡️ Digital Transformation Ministry: Ukrainians file over 225,000 damaged housing claims.

Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reported on July 7 that it killed 12 Russian soldiers and destroyed a Russian Msta-B howitzer, an ammunition depot, an Orlan-10 UAV, and a tank. [a number of ammo dumps seem to be going up recently]

⚡️ Romanian PM: Romania can supply gas to Ukraine, Moldova.

⚡️ Finland to fortify barriers at border with Russia.
On July 7, Finland’s parliament voted in favor of legislation permitting barriers along its border with Russia and its closure from asylum seekers in case of exceptional circumstances.

⚡️ Ukraine to introduce criminal liability for illegal actions regarding EU funds.
Director of the Bureau of Economic Security Vadym Melnyk said in a televised address on July 7 that several state authorities are developing a new facet of Ukraine’s Criminal Code, which will ascribe criminal liability for illegal actions with EU funds. Such actions may include the “illegal receipt or misuse of EU funds.” [This implies 1) there's been a lot of misuse and 2) they are determined to stamp it out. A lesson other countries need to learn too!]

⚡️World hunger rising as UN warns of 'looming catastrophe.'

+++

UkraineNOW

In Mariupol, Donetsk Region, temporarily occupied by Russian troops, the invaders removed all valuable exhibits from the city's museums. Among them are original paintings by famous artists — Mariupol City Council

⚡️ U.S. senators in Kyiv say they will push to send more arms to Ukraine

U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal said Thursday after meeting Ukraine’s president that they would push Congress to send more weapons to the country to fight Russia

📣 Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that not a single Russian has yet applied for a Ukrainian visa [visa requirements were recently introduced for Russians]

⚽️ The French football club Lille donated humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which is enough to help 25,000 people

🖇 An official visit to Ukraine of a delegation of the Hungarian Defense Forces headed by the Commander of the Hungarian Defense Forces, Lieutenant General Romulus Rusin-Sandi has finished [there sounds to have been a comprehensive briefing. Given Hungary's stance on the war I wonder what will come out of this]

♻️ Tajikistan will reduce dependence on Russia with the help of hydropower

🇯🇵 Ukraine war boosts support for added defense spending in Japan – WSJ

A national election appears set to give Japan’s government a mandate for a sharp increase in the military budget, thanks to the war in Ukraine.

National-security issues aren’t usually among the priorities of voters, including in Japan, which has a pacifist constitution and has largely relied on the U.S. military for its protection since World War II.

But polling suggests voters are thinking about those issues now. In a survey published in May by the Asahi Shimbun, a national newspaper, 64% of respondents said Japan should boost its defense capabilities. [quoting this in full as it's a significant shift imo]

Japanese ex-PM shot and killed in Japan while campaigning. Awful. Let's hope this is some nutter and not orchestrated by China.

As I type sources are saying Abe is in a critical condition...

In any event until proven otherwise absolutely I'd stick stick with the "not of sound mind" theory rather than starting to think about plots by governments external to Japan.

i have been thinking about Putin’s ‘we haven’t even started’ statement and wonder if it’s most obvious meaning is that Russia technically hasn’t actually declared war on Ukraine at this point. If it were to do so then optics within Russia would change significantly but the practical implications for the battlefield in Ukraine probably wouldn’t.

Thanks for clarifying @notimagain , the source I read claimed he'd been killed. I hope he recovers but it looks bad. Very unusual, campaigns in Japan are very public, close, seemingly safe. Just awful

That makes sense Jelly, especially with all the conscription rumours

A member of the Japanese navy has been arrested for the shooting, reports are he may have had a personal grievance with Abe.

Chinese state media reported that exact perceived cause an hour ago. I'm starting to sound a bit tin foil hat, apologies!