Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

Im not sure id reason that is why the Hungarian wanna be dictator, who doesn't much believe in self determination or free and fair elections, is digging in heels with NATO and the EU because 'Russia will leave it alone'.

ISW Key Takeaways

Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for Western weapons systems due to Russia’s artillery superiority.

Russian forces are continuing ground assaults within Severodonetsk but have yet to secure full control of the city as of June 10.

Russian forces are preparing to renew offensive operations toward Slovyansk and made minor gains to the north of the city.

Russian forces are continuing efforts to cut the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and conducting assaults on settlements near the highway.

Russian troops reportedly took control of the Kinburn Spit in the northern Black Sea, which will allow them to exert further control of the Black Sea coast.

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From UkraineNOW

⚡️British intelligence says the Russians lack high-precision weapons.

‼️The UN has called the death sentence of three foreign fighters in the Donetsk People's Republic a war crime.

⚡️ Self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko suggested that Belarusian troops may have to fight for Western Ukraine so that it "is not taken away by the West."

"They will come in from Western Ukraine or somewhere else. Perhaps, we will have to fight for Western Ukraine so that it won't be taken by the West. Because it is like death for us, not only for Ukrainians. Terrible processes are going on around us," Lukashenko said.

[I fear that Belorus is moving closer to invasion from the recent information, though it's not there yet. He's shown a real disinclination to go to war, slipping and sliding out of it, so I hope that this is just words but the general tone of troop movements and speech is moving closer to action]

⚡️Ukrainian partisans helped the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroy Russian bases in the occupied city of the Kherson Region.

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The Kyiv Independent, [11/06/2022 00:48]
⚡️Ukraine’s anti-aircraft missile forces hit 500 Russian air targets since Feb. 24.
On June 10, anti-aircraft missile units of the Ukraine’s Air Force destroyed their 500th air target. According to Yuri Ignat, Air Force spokesman, it was another Russian Orlan-10 UAV.

⚡️General Staff: Russian forces build fortified checkpoints in Kherson Oblast.

⚡️ Bloomberg: (www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-11/biden-says-zelenskiy-brushed-off-warnings-of-russia-s-invasion) Biden says Zelensky brushed off warnings of Russia’s invasion.
President Joe Biden said during a political fundraiser in Los Angeles that President Volodymyr Zelensky tuned out warnings that Russia would invade his country in the lead-up to the Feb. 24 attack.

[! he must genuinely not have believed Ru would do this. Just today I really wish a world's coalition would sweep into Russia and revisit the horrors they have inflicted on Grosny, ALeppo and Ukraine back onto Russia. Never happen though and it's a good thing. But the sheer ruin and waste of life and the suffering is so unbearable]

I think it is pragmatism - wanting to be left alone and backed up to get on with being a dictator.

@Ijsbear
Thank you for your key takeaways.

From UkraineNOW
⚡️British intelligence says the Russians lack high-precision weapons.

Short response - Does it matter?

Long Response- It may hurt their war effort, especially if they want to hit a specific target, especially a small hardened one, but given Russians don't seem to care overly about collateral damage or their own losses they may just be prepared to get the results they want by saturating an area containing a target with dumb munitions.

I would also hazard to guess reports of Ukraine being low on ammunition to be fairly credible given the background to this story.

There is likely to be two reasons. The first is interrupted logistics which are now proving more challenging. There's a few things we can point to here which we do know: 1) widespread fuel shortages with reports that civilians pretty much cannot get any and reports of the targetting of fuel dumps 2) a shortage of Ukrainian logistic trucks which has been mentioned and documented in a couple of places 3) the targetting of the railways. And thats what we know on that front. There is likely to be other things. Getting ammunition to the front line on one, maybe two roads which are surrounded on three sides isnt easy. We also know from journalists, family members and fund raisers there is an acute shortage of protective equipment for soliders with them required to supply their own.

Getting the right ammunition to the right place where you have the right tools to use it isn't straightforward in its own right. We know that there were efforts to supply soviet compatible ammunition still continuing because the front lines still only had soviet equipment. Even with what has been supplied to replace this equipment, its a question of making sure you spread it to where its needed... And match with the relevant munitions.

We also know that Biden engaged with arms companies a couple of months ago to discuss the limited stockpiles and production ability of these companies as it was identified as a problem. This is probably this now starting to play out in real time.

I don't think its a surprise. I also think there was a certain lack of urgency from certain quarters who felt that the war would grind to a shuddering halt at this point. Thats not happening. Indeed the prognosis is definitely shifting from months to years in the vocabulary when you read briefings.

In the mix of this, is the issue of refugees. Throughout the EU and UK they have a 3 year grace period. Then what? What happens to the 16 year old boy who has come to the UK on a 3 year visa if this becomes protracted?

What do you think of Putin's claims re Peter the great and the idea that this is indeed just all about imperialism. How do we read this? Are we dealing with another Hitler scenario, is he doing a Reagan-style madman thing?

I think madness is relative. It’s important that we look at Putin’s comment through a Russian lense, the perspective and logic is very different.

I think he enjoys being ambiguous and leaving people talking about and interpreting his words. It’s also clear he has imperialist ambitions but that’s nothing new, it’s just more overt now.

Apparently Ukrainian scouts have seen that Arab fighters are now in eastern Ukraine fighting for the Russians.

Annoyingly, imo, NYT, states that a pro -Ukrainian partisan could be a farmer with a cart of potato’s or a granny with a cell phone. As if they are not in enough danger already. We have seen on that Russian talk show posted yesterday, they do read these papers.

Behind Enemy Lines, Scouts Help Ukrainians Execute Deadly Strikes - The New York Times

www.nytimes.com/2022/06/10/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war.html

According to the Telegraph, Russia is now using anti-ship missiles from the Cold War era to obliterate areas containing civilians www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/11/russia-bombing-eastern-ukraine-indiscriminately-anti-ship-missiles/

It is worse that they use dumb munitions because they end up hitting a wider area. Wanton destruction, indiscriminate death and suffering is Russia's modus operandi. War crimes really and somehow they get away with it.

I am wondering how much ammo the Russians have left, given how much cash was siphoned off by corruption. They must be depleting their stockpiles, too, even if they have planned for it in

Creating a wartime economy takes will, urgency and cash. I suspect a lot of this will be hammered out at the next NATO meeting. Part of the problem is that you have multiple countries chipping in so working out what everyone is contributing and when must be a massive headache.

This is so so worrying. A long protracted war will cause widespread and untold suffering. What is the point of dripping a few weapons to Ukraine so late that their infrastructure and logistics are damaged but not sufficient for them to push Russia out. That is just throwing money, weapons and lives down the drain.

I guess Putin was right when he knew the West would not be united or committed enough to rescue Ukraine. It looks like it is essentially down to the US now but their politics is messy. Ukraine news has definitely fallen down the news agenda. I fear the West/US is losing interest.

UkraineNOW

This week, partisan scouts working for Ukraine’s military behind enemy lines directed artillery attacks on two Russian bases in the occupied Kherson region that killed scores of enemy soldiers, according to a senior Ukrainian military official with knowledge of the attacks.

Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, confirmed the attack and said about 200 fighters had been killed.

Later that day, scouts directed another artillery attack, killing dozens of enemy soldiers, including two generals, the senior official said. One of the generals was from the Russian army and another from Russia’s counterintelligence service, the F.S.B., the senior military official said.

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a lot of people have said that Ukrainians will take partisan actions. I worry that there will be intense reprisals on the civilian population.

From what I've been reading they have an almost infinite supply of crude missiles.

The lack of precision missiles might mean that they can't target crucial centres so well, but quantity matters and can achieve as much devastation if they're willing to keep going.

NEXTA
@nexta_tv
·
7h
#Ukrainian Ambassador to #Germany Andriy Melnik said that on June 22, #Kyiv would receive 7 #German self-propelled howitzers, the shipment of which was approved by the German authorities back in May.

okaaay

@Ijsbear · Today 20:08
UkraineNOW

This week, partisan scouts working for Ukraine’s military behind enemy lines directed artillery attacks on two Russian bases in the occupied Kherson region that killed scores of enemy soldiers, according to a senior Ukrainian military official with knowledge of the attacks.

Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, confirmed the attack and said about 200 fighters had been killed.

Later that day, scouts directed another artillery attack, killing dozens of enemy soldiers, including two generals, the senior official said. One of the generals was from the Russian army and another from Russia’s counterintelligence service, the F.S.B., the senior military official said.

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a lot of people have said that Ukrainians will take partisan actions. I worry that there will be intense reprisals on the civilian population.

Yes, it is so worrying.

That’s why I think too that NYT article about partisan actions was so wrong to spell out that it could be a granny with a cell phone or a person with a cart of potatoes giving Russian positions.

Anyone and everyone could be blamed by the Russians. Revenge atrocities and murders will be rife.

Little girl sings the Ukraine National Anthem at the Ukraine vs Armenia football match

twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1535616813626757125?s=20&t=UQ53DR1fntGKMgYqWi2Mkw

So touching

my my

The Kyiv Independent, [11/06/2022 22:09]
⚡️Media: Scholz, Macron, Draghi plan to meet Zelensky in Kyiv ahead of G7 summit.

According to German news outlet Bild, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, together with French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, plan to arrive in Kyiv before the G7 summit scheduled for June 26-28.

This is dated today.

Ukraine military adviser "Avestovych estimated to journalist Mark Feygyn that roughly 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and the daily numbers for Ukrainian casualties were more like '200-300 die, no less' but that the figures fluctuate.

How can Ukraine continue to sustain these losses 😢

What are the chances the trio are there to discuss supply more weapons (like Zelensky is asking) or is it to pressure Zelensky to accept a peace deal to end the food blockade. Maybe EU membership?

@blueshoes from what I have read I don't think either side can sustain the losses. It feels as if the fighting has peaked. Maybe others know better than me but is there any chance that this will be followed by a lull of sorts or will this ferocious pace be kept up?

On a different note this just seems unhinged to me...

t.me/ukrainenowenglish/10598