Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

Thanks. I knew that

I just wondered what the crime was.

The "jurisdiction" bit is made up by them, which is no surprise but it seems ridiculous that once again Ukraine are fighting with one hand behind its back

ScrollingLeaves, that is just disgusting to arm and let loose criminals who were probably also drunk and drugged on defenceless civilian population whose homes were probably bombed and levelled. Of course Russia would not care if these criminals end up dying. Solved 2 problems for them. What hell is Russia unleashing and how are they allowed to do this? This is just utterly sick.

Sorry if the answer is obvious but I assume the husband and these men are being called up to fight for Ukraine, rather than forced conscripts for the Russian army. So sad they have to get their own life-saving kit.

I would be interested to donate.

Lithuania has been a NATO member since 1994.

If Russia is stupid enough to make a land grab for it, the alliance would have to respond as anything else would be seen as strategic weakness after the move on Ukraine.

Would they be that stupid? I can't see how Russia would manage air superiority against NATO if it can't manage to do so with Ukraine.

@JacquelineCarlyle @ScrollingLeaves @blueshoes

I have bought a lot of kit for the soldiers fed by the Kharkiv soup kitchen and could shout out the NATO size of any top or trousers waved at me. I've kitted out each man with warm weather combat jacket, ubac, t shirt, trousers, socks, underpants, boots, ballistic goggles, sniper gloves, sun hat, ear defenders and also bought a lot of radios (there's a real lack of radios). Each man has cost £200. If you add in bullet proof vests grade 4, they are £350 per vest. I don't know about helmets...

Admittedly prices might be higher here in the UK but I'm told that the price for these items in Ukraine have sky rocketed and are hard to get hold of. These men can't afford it. They have been offered a top and trousers two sizes too big but literally nothing else.

And yes they are being conscripted by the Ukrainian army @blueshoes

@LoveLarry - the crime, as far as I can make out, is simple being a mercenary . And because it's the DPR, which isn't a real country, it is like the Wild West and has made up its own laws and says that the penalty for that is the death penalty.

But Wagner is ok to operate in "their" territory

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · Yesterday 22:55
It is dismaying to hear that Ukrainin soldiers are called up but have to buy their own kit. It probably is even more if they get a top quality bullet proof vest, boots and helmet. Do you know if they will receive a salary that would help off-set the cost?

Interesting thread on the narratives on Russia state tv and how the scary stuff we hear isn't mentioned as often as you think. Spoiler: "in sum, the diversity of narratives and aggregate air time devoted to the war have declined on Russian TV. NATO isn't mentioned as much as you might think from watching propaganda talk shows. Nationalists, DNR/LNR, and (increasingly) sanctions dominate."

t.co/ABl2rf8wtF

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued assaults against Ukrainian positions in Severodonetsk. Russian forces simultaneously seek to outflank Ukrainian positions in the region to avoid the necessity of making an opposed crossing of the Siversky Donets river.

Russian forces are continuing operations around Sviatohirsk and west of Lyman to link up with operations southeast of Izyum and drive on Slovyansk.

Russian forces are intensifying their operations in northwestern Kherson Oblast in response to recent Ukrainian counterattacks.

Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are focusing ground and artillery attacks near the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border and likely are seeking to strengthen control of the highway between Vasylivka-Orikhiv and Huliapole to support operations in northeast Zaporizhia.

Russian-backed occupation authorities are attempting to set conditions for the political integration of occupied areas into the Russian Federation but are likely acting independently and in an incoherent manner due to the lack of a unifying occupation authority.

Russian forces intensified psychological and information operations to degrade Ukrainian morale.

(additionally)

Russian forces are escalating the use of psychological and information operations to damage the morale of Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 8 that Russian forces are sending threatening messages to the personal devices of Ukrainian servicemen calling on them to betray their service oaths, lay down their arms, surrender, or defect to Russia.[1] The GUR reported that Russian forces are sending messages on a variety of platforms including SMS, Telegram, Viber, Signal, and WhatsApp and that the messages use location information to threaten to harm Ukrainian soldiers or their family members. Ukrainian military expert Dmytro Snegirov additionally noted that Russian propagandists are conducting informational and psychological campaigns to spoil the morale of Ukrainian troops by disseminating information that the battle for Severodonetsk will become the “next Mariupol.”[2] These information and psychological attacks likely seek to lower the morale of Ukrainian servicemen as operations on multiple axes of advance continue to generate high causalities on both the Ukrainian and Russian sides.

(Perhaps these might have some success unfortunately. They are fighting for their homes and freedom but threats to your family are very effective and they are tired and underequipped. The same goes for the Russians too but their families are not at risk).

+++

UkraineNOW

🇺🇦Zelensky: “According to the results of this period, already the 105th day of a full-scale war, Sievierodonetsk remains the epicenter of confrontation in the Donbas.

🇨🇦 Canada has imposed new sanctions against the oil and gas and chemical industries of the Russian Federation

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [08/06/2022 23:48]
⚡️Brink: Ukraine has received $1 billion from the US, more to expect.

The U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink said on June 8 that an additional $7.5 billion in grants are “on the way” as part of a $40 billion package signed by President Joe Biden in late May. “Your strength gives us strength,” Brink said during a meeting about U.S. support for the Ukrainian economy.

⚡️Official: Western weapons already making a difference.
Mykolaiv Oblast Governor Vitaliy Kim, told Reuters that Western-supplied weapons are helping Ukrainian forces and it is “just a matter of time” before Ukraine regains significant ground in the south. Kim also added that western artillery is already working in the region. He didn’t specify the weapons system.

WSJ: UK to tighten restrictions on sanctions enforcement.
As of June 15, the U.K.’s Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation will not have to prove that those who violate the country’s economic sanctions were aware of doing so, only prove that a violation occurred.
This decision applies to all sanctions imposed by the U.K., including to those related to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

⚡️ Ukrainian retailers lose almost $1.7 billion since start of war.

+++

A while back @TargusEasting mentioned how inaccurate mortar fire can be. Some of the pictures on twitter look like the fields have developed a bad case of black pox now. It's surreal almost.

Apparently the Russians still have 'limitless' supplies of mortar rockets.

Ok it's the Twittersphere but again and again people are saying that the promised German stuff is simply not arriving. One of the latest is this:

Michael MacKay
@mhmck
Germany will delay the delivery of M270 multiple-launch rocket systems to Ukraine until the winter.

I can’t be bothered to look up the excuse the Scholz government has this time. I’ve given up on Germany, as most freedom-loving people around the world already have.

[If this is true it's an utter disgrace]

A while back @TargusEasting mentioned how inaccurate mortar fire can be. Some of the pictures on twitter look like the fields have developed a bad case of black pox now. It's surreal almost. Apparently the Russians still have 'limitless' supplies of mortar rockets.

@TargusEasting will know for sure but I believe western MLRS and associated systems used by NATO forces might well reduce a similar field to a similar state I've heard the expression used that MLRS can "take out a grid square" and I'm guessing in some circumstances that might well be the intention...

I guess what I'm driving at is the Russians won't be the only ones turning fields over, it's just we haven't seen the pictures yet.

Im sure you're right! The pics I've seen have not been attributed to one side or the other, though it's easy to assume they are Russian mortars until you think 'what's the evidence'. It's also notable that the the Ukrainians are so poorly equipped, though I suppose in their defense it would have taken extraordinary foresight to really believe Russia would invade.

Really we do hear a fairly one sided picture. It seems the Ukrainians are doing their best to keep it under control, but you do hear of some Ukr war crimes committed. Not surprisingly.

Thank you@Ijsbear and @MagicFox
That psychological barrage must be hard to bear. I presume Ukraine is doing it too in some way.

Re: German weapons. I think I remember they have to be built don’t they? (Unless that was the back-fill of tanks promised to Poland.)

The Russian TV coverage described being less about NATO and Nazism now is interesting.

The total combat losses of russian enemy in #Ukraine from 24.02 to 09.06 were approximately:
personnel - about 31700 (+200) liquidated
tanks ‒ 1398 (+5)
APV ‒ 3438 (+9)
artillery systems – 711 (+8)
MLRS - 213 (+0)
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 96 (+0)
aircraft – 212 (+0)
helicopters – 178 (+0)
UAV operational-tactical level - 562 (+3)
cruise missiles - 125 (+0)
warships / boats - 13 (+0)
vehicles and fuel tanks - 2421 (+15)
special equipment - 53 (+0)
General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine

Some of the German arms promised have been built and were to go to Egypt but were (with permission) diverted. Whether those were some of the ones that are delayed, I don't know. What's being said is that it's the heavy armaments that are not being delivered.

Germany is the world's 5th largest arms manufacturer and exporter btw.

If Germany wanted arms to go to Ukraine then it would find the political will to do it.

It does not want to send arms to Ukraine.

There isn't a reason that it hasn't sent arms apart from this. At this point we should stop going along with the bullshit. Its whatabouttery on a parr with Russian propaganda.

If Germany is the 5th biggest manufacturer and export of arms it has the ability to send arms now. It is actively choosing not to.

Good interview with Ian Bremmer on this podcast that I wanted to link to because it's hopeful about the future of the global order, the place of Europe within it and it recognises that Ukraine is paying a horrible price to waken us up and remind us why we should cherish and defend our values.

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955?i=1000565708200

If Germany wanted arms to go to Ukraine then it would find the political will to do it.

It does not want to send arms to Ukraine

In fairness I think it's Scholz. There seems to be quite a bit of unhappiness within Germany from what I read.

It would be good to get a German pov if anyone is reading these threads, and to confirm if this is correct about the lack of deliveries.

Scholz is the German leader. Germany is a democratic country. This means if there was enough political will from the public, it would support Ukraine. It chooses not to.

Just listening to Ukrainecast and they're speaking about the humanitarian impact on children following the UNICEF report. Its absolutely staggering.

• A child is displaced in Ukraine every 2 seconds (this was every 1 second in the first 50 days)
• 2 children are killed in Ukraine every day.

He also speaks in graphic detail about a woman killed in Irpin on her way to the shops (she was carrying a shopping list). The Russians wouldn't even let her body be removed, they just left it lying in the road being continually run over for days. Such levels of disregard for human beings, its disgusting.

Should have mentioned that the he I reference above (and here) is James Elder from UNICEF.

He is now travelling to Somalia, which is currently facing the worst drought in 20 years, to assess the impact of the Ukraine war on the children there. Somalia imports 90%+ of its grain from Ukraine and Russia and it is expected that the war will lead to mass famine and starvation of children there.

Re Germany, slow, not stellar but not utter outliers when it comes to not providing lots of equipment quickly.

Lets not forget for example 15 Gepards promised (Questionable utility but it's something), unfortunately though the Swiss are or were being awkward about the ammunition, and also supplying some Panzerhaubitze 2000 long range artillery systems....how's the UK doing on that front?

Yes Germany are a big arms producer, by way of monetary value but a significant of what they produce of is marine/ and a lot of other value is earned by companies doing sub-contractor work for things like the aero-space industry...not much point in supplying half a cockpit or part of a wing section...That in itself doesn't excuse the lack of supply of lesser munitions but it's hard to judge what could be provided by the arms companies direct without knowing exactly what they could actually build quickly.

There's then the other whole issue, previously mentioned, of the Bundeswehr having been chronically under funded and under equipped for years (some of that under the auspices of Ursula von der Leyen) so the German Forces themselves are not exactly awash with ready to go, or even slightly out of date, equipment that can be donated directly to the Ukraine from the military arsenal even if there was the political will do so quickly.

This sweet video is of a little girl playing ‘Stefania’ on her recorder to raise money.

twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1534654074171363333?s=20&t=acGz3qd_G1Ktecuhw7ualQ

"Europe is not fit for the world of tomorrow. The world of tomorrow is not a world of nation states, dear colleagues. The world of tomorrow is a world of empires, if you want it or not. China is an empire, India is an empire, the US is an empire. Russia wants to be an empire. And in such a world only a European Union that is not based on unanimity, not based on veto rights, not based on such an instrument can survive."

twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1534804165326737408?s=21&t=qjqcZEkIygusXNU5ZxKa4g